Hereford and South Herefordshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22366 (46.23%)
Labour: 3506 (7.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2.04%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.39%)
Majority: 2481 (5.13%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19687 (43.6%)
Conservative: 18391 (40.7%)
Labour: 4684 (10.4%)
Other: 2423 (5.4%)
Majority: 1297 (2.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19323 (41.2%)
Labour: 4800 (10.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 20285 (43.3%)
Green: 1052 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1030 (2.2%)
Other: 404 (0.9%)
Majority: 962 (2.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17276 (38.7%)
Labour: 6739 (15.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 18244 (40.9%)
UKIP: 1184 (2.7%)
Green: 1181 (2.6%)
Majority: 968 (2.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18550 (35.3%)
Labour: 6596 (12.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 25198 (47.9%)
Referendum: 2209 (4.2%)
Majority: 6648 (12.7%)
Boundary changes: the latest boundary review treated Herefordshire separately from Worcestershire, splitting it into two seats. This resulted in the gain of a small part of Golden Valley North and the loss of part of Backbury and Old Gore to North Herefordshire. The name was changed at the local inquiry stage of the boundary committee`s conisderations to include South Herefordshire.
Profile: A rural seat on the border with Wales, it compromises Hereford itself and most of South Herefordshire. Hereford itself is a historic city and a Liberal stronghold, the cathedral houses the 13th century Mappa Mundi. The only other notable town is Ross-on-Wye with the rest of the constituency made up of gently-rolling agricultural land. The area is mostly known for apple and pear growing and cider making, though Strawberry production is increasingly common (and controversial given the use of polytunnels). Significant local employers are Bulmers cider and Sun Valley foods.
The seat had been a Liberal target for many years before it was finally won on the back of Paul Keetch`s impeccable local credentials. It remains to be seen whether his personal support will transfer the new Lib Dem candidate.
Current MP: Jesse Norman (Conservative) born 1962. Educated at Oxford University, doctorate from UCL. Journalist and former director of Barclays Bank. Senior Fellow at the Policy Exchange think tank and author of Compassionate Conservativism.
Jesse Norman (Conservative) born 1962. Educated at Oxford University, doctorate from UCL. Journalist and former director of Barclays Bank. Senior Fellow at the Policy Exchange think tank and author of Compassionate Conservativism.Phillipa Roberts (Labour)Sarah Carr (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, Shropshire. Educated at St Dominics School, South Staffs and University of Portsmouth. Former Lib Dem researcher. Worked in the Telecoms industry.Valentine Smith (UKIP)John Oliver (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91491
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 23.9%
Born outside UK: 3.4%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 78.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 17.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.1%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 17.7% (Council: 13.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 8.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
On turnout, I very much hope it does rise substantially – for all our benefits.
Thinking about it though, 67 or 68 is pretty high in today’s junk celebrity climate.
I suspect it will rise 7 or 8 points in marginals, (or perhaps in some seats where Tories feel more galvanised) but will probably only rise 2-3 points elsewhere.
So you’re probably looking like 65-65.5, which is not bad for the time, but not as high as it used to be.
I may be wrong, and we’ll see a genuinely high turnout but I do fear those days are gone.
Why is Paul Keetch standing down?
He is not even 50!!!
Retiring MP’s often make Liberal seats difficult to hold.
Maybe turnout could be increased by entering voters’ names in a lottery contest to appear on a celebrity game show.
“Why is Paul Keetch standing down?”
He had a serious health scare on a plane last year and very nearly died (some kind of heart thing). That was after he had announced his intention to require but I don’t know whether there were previous health issues we hadn’t heard about.
Intention to “retire” even!
The countryside constituency vote will be interesting this time around. My fear for the LibDems is that they are considered to be too weak to make a real difference for countryside issues. If the local farming/hunting communities believe that the Liberals are too weak, or that the tories will repeal some of the perceived ‘anti-countryside’ legislation passed by the current regime, then these type of seats could turn blue.
After 2 near misses, this must be right near the top of the Conservative target list
Every time I come across this page I can’t believe the long-winded name that’s been chosen. A lot of people are just going to abbreviate it to Hereford I think.
I don’t believe that the Liberals can hang on here.
Euro results for Herefordshire council:
Con – 16,336 (33.4%, -1.7%)
UKIP – 11,710 (23.9%, +2.3%)
LD - 7,165 (14.6%, -3.3%)
Green – 6,447 (13.2%, +2.5%)
Lab – 2,822 (5.8%, -3.9%)
BNP – 1,786 (3.6%, +1.1%)
I’ve just discovered that the new Tory candidate is “Jesse” Norman. I reckon his last political outing was in my own Camden Town with Primrose Hill ward in 2006. There was no “Jessie” then.
Apart from initial press interest – based around his father’s rescue of Camden’s Roundhouse – so far as any of my contacts can tell he had absolutely no impact on the campaign.
What will he give to the pary campaign? And just what connection does he have with Hereford? All previous info suggests he is London based – while the LD candidate appears to have a strong Border background.
Such things matter in an area like this.
I agree that this is a likely Con gain, but by no means assured.
Labour have selected Philippa Roberts here
Ladbrokes:
Conservatives 2/5
Liberal Democrats 7/4
Labour 100/1
UKIP 100/1
Green 100/1
As with a few other LD seats such as Southport and Sutton, 2-1 represents good value in each of the 3 seats as its a 2horse race with seats that are v marginal but the LDs have held them by 1-2,500 in each of the last 3 elections.
I think the LibDems held this in 2005 due to the MP being a local man plus incumbency.
I agree with Camden John; a likely Con gain but by no means assured.
Like Edinburgh West and Hazel Grove this seat had really close results in the 1980′s and early 1990′s with the Lib Dems being consistently unlucky.
Unlike the Edinburgh and Stockport divisions the Lib Dems never transformed this into a safe Lib Dem seat and now risk loosing it as a consiquence.
I’m sure that Frederic Stansfield would want to know that the Cameron “I’ll cut the deficit” poster has been seen here.
However, a picture in yesterday’s Guardian of it has shown how very cunningly Cameron has been “retouched” as Elvis Presley, and the 2nd line altered, so it now reads “We can’t go on like this, with suspicious minds.”
‘Hereford & North Herefordshire’ sound as stupid as ‘Perth & North Perthshire’.
The worst name of all is ‘West Bromwich West’. Why not divide the town North and South to avoid such a name?
There is no need to divide the town at all. the whole of the town of West Bromwich now lies in the West Bromwich East seat while West Bromwich West contains the quite seperate towns of Wednesbury, Tipton and Oldbury – all of which have leant their names to previous constituencies. I agree this name is stupid beyond belief.
Yes the name should have been changed for this election – missed opportunity of a sort.
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
One aspect that might make this seat closer than anticipated is that there is little evidence that Paul Keetch did manage to genarate a significant personal vote. He lost 7% of his 1997 vote when he first defended the seat – while many other Lib Dem winners of the 97 school were consolidating or improving their position. His 2005 vote was still lower than that achieved by the losing Liberal candidate in 1987 (the boundary changes since 87 have been minor).
Meant “generate” of course – brain and fingers not in alignment!!
I agree with Pete on the West Bromwich names, but thats a bit off topic for this discusion.
I also agree that this new name here is cumbersome and a bit pointless. If most of the consitency has Hereford as its ‘market centre’ why not stick with that name?
Anyway I would like some local knowledge.. as has been intimated above, my party’s hold on this seat seems very much under threat… but back in the 80′s when the Alliance were stuck in the 20′s as far as seats were concerned this was one of the ones that was always ‘nearly in reach’… and yet we have safe seats which weren’t eve on the radar then, like Sheffield Hallam and St. Ives
Oh I pressed ‘Summit’ before I meant to’.. The local knowledge I seek is…. why is that?
Its an interesting point. I have no local knowledge and not sure I know the answer, but it is notable that the LD winning vote in 2001 and 2005 was lower than the losing share for the Liberals in 1983 and 1987. One key difference is that the Labour vote is somewhat higher than then so there has actually been some tactical unwind while in the other two seats you mention the substantial natural Labour vote has been squeezed far more in recent elections than it was in the 1980s.
In fact there has not been much fluctuation in the results here since 1979 with (excepting 1997) both Conservatives and LDs scoring between the high 30s and the high 40s across all elections. I suppose then that the Liberals/LDs had already just about maximised their potential within this constituency by the 1980s by squeezing Labour out in the city of Hereford and there was not the potential in the rural areas to swing large numbers of voters from the Tories (note that in neigbouring Leominster/Herefordshire N there has been a steady and longterm relative decline in Liberal/LD strength.)
Camden – what was the Tory PPC’s name? I’m researching PPCs who have changed their name or been advised to. See Dorset S, Rossendale, etc
Lancs Observer – the Tory PPC’s name was Alexander prior to his name change and he stood in the Camden Town Council election in 2006 in the Primrose Hill ward.
Cons Gain= 3,500 maj
CON 4000
Con Gain
Maj 2800
Con maj 2,500
My family live here.
There’s a huge personal vote for Paul Keetch rather than for the Lib Dems as a party. Paul is known by name to most of the population and losing him as a candidate is likely to severely harm the Lib Dem vote.
However, the big issues presently are the ‘Edgar Street Grid’, a very controversial shopping/housing development in the centre of town which, its felt, hasn’t been at all consulted upon by the Tory council. There are local ‘it’s our city’ campaigns (basically ‘not in my backyard’) and the Lib Dems are on the better side than the Tories, having not been implicated in the development set up.
Certainly with the present lib dem situation I would predict a Lib Dem majority of 1,000.
West12 – interesting. Close here again as in ’01 and ’05.
Well I’d written this off as a Con gain but now it has to be a feasible LD hold. I have family here.
Is that based on a source here then Barnaby?
No, not really. The general perception was a Tory gain with Keetch retiring. But the LD surge in the polls clearly suggests they can’t gain it as things stand. The city of Hereford itself is quite solidly LD & the seat won’t be safe for the Tories again, but if the LD surge subsides the Tories might still be able to take it. Interesting.
Thanks for that Barnaby.
Chatting to my family about this and the perception is a strong likelihood of a Lib Dem win. The v controversial ‘Edgar Street Grid’ development protests/campaign came to a head this weekend and the tory candidate is having to do backflips to portray himself as being ‘against’ the development, when it’s being pushed through by the majority Tory (28 sets of 58) council.
In the kindest way Hereford is also quite a rural county, v intorverted, and the fact that the Tory candidate is from North London with limited links to the city is also not playing in his favour. The Lib Dem candidate is more local. The Labour is the most local still… but perhaps not a huge concern!
Tories couldn’t win this seat against the Lib Ds with Charlie at helm and a local candidate last time! What price with Cleggmania and a grockell from London, ‘Jesse Norman’, representing them.:
LIB D: Maj of 3,000
Pro-Tory press on this web site [?!]
Tories couldn’t win this seat against the Lib Ds with Charlie at helm and a local candidate last time! What price with Cleggmania and a grockell from London, ‘Jesse Norman’, representing them.:
LIB D: Maj of 3,000
I don’t feel it necessarily makes much difference if the candidate is a local person or not, so long as when we vote, we feel we are choosing the right person.
They could be local but nowhere near as good as one of the other candidates.
I am generally a Tory person, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I always vote Tory. I look at who is standing in the area I can vote in, listen to what they say, watch what they do, decide what I think they are really like – and hope I get it right.
Cleggmania – I hope the public in general are not as fickle as “the media” makes us out to be, though I rather think we are. I remember it seeming very certain once that Labour would get in, right up until Neil Kinnock gave a victory air punch the night before the vote and lost everything.
I wonder what our ‘Leaders’ are planning for 5th May?!
10 days ago I would have taken Con gain but now I feel LD hold.
Hereford and Herefordshire South, unfortunately, have three very strong candidates, Sarah Carr (LD) Jesse Norman (C) and Phillipa Roberts (L). Historically, this is LD/C two-horse race, which should, due to recent boundary changes, revert to the Tories in 2010. However, with the recent surge in LD support following the TV Debate the Tories are finding they have a considerable fight on their hands and may not, as expected, retake the seat.
Any of the three main candidates would make a fine MP for the constituency, so unfortunately, two of them are bond to lose. Herefordshire North, by contrast is traditionally a ‘very safe’ Tory seat that has been undermined by the expenses activities of its current MP, Bill Wiggin, who not only excluded any potentially critical party members from his re-selection meeting, but also very insensitively refused to support the local Cadbury employees during the recent hostile takeover by Kraft. His vote may, therefore, be considerably reduced as a result, and North Herefordshire could possibly be described now as a ‘new marginal’.
This is not necessarily all bad news, though. If Jesse Norman fails to retake the Herefordshire South seat, as seems a strong possibility, Bill Wiggin holds the safe Tory seat in the North, and the selection rules are altered to allow MPs to be sacked, I would speculate that Bill Wiggin may be one of the first to potentially face removal. This could open a relatively safe Tory seat for Jesse Norman in the event that he fails to take Hereford South, and result in Herefordshire having two very credible representatives at Westminster. If we have a Tory MP in the county, it would be beneficial to have a good one, and by all accounts one of the positive traits ascribed to Jesse Norman is that he is bit maverick.
again I agree with Peter. LD HOLD
“”Pro-Tory press on this web site [?!]
Tories couldn’t win this seat against the Lib Ds with Charlie at helm and a local candidate last time! What price with Cleggmania and a grockell from London, ‘Jesse Norman’, representing them.:
LIB D: Maj of 3,000
”
Oh well, can’t win them all….
The Tory majority is actually quite similar to ’92… as are the Tory and Lib Dem vote shares (the Tory one being a bit lower).
The results in the ’80s / early ’90s were remarkably static, this year’s results seems to be a return to that norm.