Hendon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19635 (42.34%)
Labour: 19529 (42.11%)
Liberal Democrat: 5734 (12.36%)
UKIP: 958 (2.07%)
Green: 518 (1.12%)
Majority: 106 (0.23%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17981 (45%)
Conservative: 14976 (37.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5589 (14%)
Other: 1452 (3.6%)
Majority: 3005 (7.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15897 (38%)
Labour: 18596 (44.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5831 (13.9%)
Green: 754 (1.8%)
UKIP: 637 (1.5%)
Other: 124 (0.3%)
Majority: 2699 (6.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14015 (34.3%)
Labour: 21432 (52.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4724 (11.6%)
UKIP: 409 (1%)
Other: 271 (0.7%)
Majority: 7417 (18.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18528 (37%)
Labour: 24683 (49.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5427 (10.8%)
Referendum: 978 (2%)
Other: 420 (0.8%)
Majority: 6155 (12.3%)
Boundary changes: minor. Hendon loses a tiny part of Underhill to Chipping Barnet and small parts of Finchley Church End, Garden Suburb and Golders Green wards to Finchley and Golders Green, while gaining less than 100 voters from Chipping Barnet in the Mill Hill ward (a change that effects but a single road, Westlinton Close, a golf course and an equestrian centre)
Profile: A north-west London seat in the borough of Barnet. It is an ethnically diverse seat, with around a third of residents describing themselves as non-white and one of the highest Jewish populations of any seat in the UK (largely in Edgware, which is almost half Jewish and is home to twelve synagogues). Equally the seats has economic contrasts, from the wealthy suburbs of Edgware and Mill Hill to council estates in Burnt Oak and Colindale.
The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010, but the predecessor seat Hendon North was safely Conservative, represented by the semi-detached Conservative MP Sir John Gorst who along with Hugh Dykes had threatened to defy the whip and bring down the ailing Major government in an attempt to save the A&E department at Edgware hospital. Hendon itself is a marginal.
Current MP: Matthew Offord (Conservative) Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton, and Nottingham Trent University. Fomrer Deputy leader of Barnet council and BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough in 2001. First elected as MP for Hendon in 2010.
Matthew Offord (Conservative) Educated at Amery Hill School, Alton, and Nottingham Trent University. Deputy leader of Barnet council. BBC political analyst. Contested Barnsley East and Mexborough in 2001.
Andrew Dismore(Labour) born 1954, Bridlington. Educated at Bridlington Grammar and the University of Warwick. Solicitor. Westminister councillor from 1982-1997, serving as the Labour group leader from 1990-1997. First elected as MP for Hendon in 1997. He was instumental in the introduction of Holocaust Memorial Day in the United Kingdom. In 2006 he famously claimed the highest level of postal expenses of any MP in the House of Commons, over £25,000, which he has defended as being the result of a commitment to communicate with his constituents. He currently holds the record for the longest filibuster of the 21st century, talking for 3 hours 17 minutes to successfully talk out the Criminal Law (Amendment) (Protection of Property) Bill (more information at They work for you)
Matthew Harris (Liberal Democrat) Born 1971, London. Educated at Christs College Finchley and Oxford University. Secretary of Liberal Democrat Friends of Israel.
Andrew Newby (Green)Robin Lambert (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 104925
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 24.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 33.2%
White: 66.5%
Black: 9.1%
Asian: 15.8%
Mixed: 3.2%
Other: 5.3%
Christian: 43.8%
Hindu: 8.7%
Jewish: 17.3%
Muslim: 7.9%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 30.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.8%
Social Housing: 20.8% (Council: 15.9%, Housing Ass.: 5%)
Privately Rented: 13.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
The Tories will hold Croydon & Sutton relatively easily. Quite a bit of the Lib Dem vote in both Sutton and South Croydon is Tory inclined and is unlikely to go to Labour – as opposed to the bit in St Helier and central Sutton which most likely will. Labour will not get the turnout in north Croydon to come anywhere near pulling a victory off.
Ealing & Hillingdon is a much more likely Labour gain but again Labour will have to get the turnout in Southall, Ealing North and Hayes & H to match the Tories in Uxbridge and Ruislip.
Barnet & Camden will be easier for Labour to pick up, with a big left-leaning LD vote to squeeze in Camden.
Ken being on the ticket will be bad for the Labour GLA candidate in Croydon & Sutton – not so much so in Ealing or Camden.
The Conservatives won a majority of exactly 51,000 votes here in 1931.
Labour WON in 45 though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The seat didn’t exist in 1945. Of the successor seats Labour won in Hendon North, Harrow East and Wembley North and the Conservatives won Hendon South and Harrow West
That is true, but the then Hendon N seat bore a stronger resemblance to this present-day seat than any other.
That is certainly true, but it didn’t bear much resemblance to the Hendon seat of 1931 with which Peter was making a comparison
I wonder if that 51,000 majority in 1931 was the largest at that election as I don’t have my figures to hand. Neighbouring Harrow may have been a contender – few other seats were as large and those that were eg Romford were not as safe. My grandparents would have contributed to this majority in 1931which otherwise would have been a mere 50,998 (or I suppose 50,996 in the unlikely event that they had voted Labour)
No it wasn’t Pete, anything like. The then huge Brighton seat (which included Hove as well as all of the then Borough of Brighton) gave the 2 successful Conservative candidates majorities of over 100,000 over Labour. It has narrowed somewhat since……..
Brighton was once contested for the Liberals by the dilettante C.B.Fry, who held the world long-jump record, captained England at both cricket & rugby, appeared for England at (association) football and played for Southampton in F.A.Cup finals, was offered the throne of Albania and (surely his least glorious achievement) advised Hitler on the formation of a youth movement.
To be fair, it was quite a successful youth movement
Some 1931 results:
Hendon:
C: 66,305
Lab: 15,305
Harrow:
C: 48,068
Lab: 14,241
L: 5,444
Brighton (2):
C: 75,205 / 74,993
Lab: 12,952 / 11,878
Romford:
C: 50,097
Lab: 31,410
Almsot exactly the same number of votes cast in Romford as in Hendon but the Tory majority nearly 3 times as big in the latter. In 2010 there would probably have been a bigger Tory majority in Romford
Brighton on those boundaries didn’t include outlying areas like Patcham and Rottingdean (also a fw more Labour areas like Portslade) and as such would be a safeish Labour seat these days, possibly vulnerable to the Greens but unlikely the Tories could win there now. The 1931 vintage Harrow would also be a safe Labour seat now.
Wasnt there talk of an election petition here? I know one didn’t materialise in N Ireland.
As I mentioned above, Andrew Dismore told me it was not going ahead partly because of lack of funds – struck me as surprising too.
Apparently C.B.Fry did all of the things mentioned above, except he didn’t captain England at Rugby.
“The seat didn’t exist in 1945. Of the successor seats Labour won in Hendon North, Harrow East and Wembley North and the Conservatives won Hendon South and Harrow West”
If Harrows East and West were in Hendon in 1931 then what did the 1931 Harrow consist of?
Harrow Central I presume but what else?
Yes – it had central Harrow and Wealdstone and South Harrow – basically the old urban districts of Harrow on the Hill and Wealdstone. Pinner, Harrow Weald and Stanmore were in Hendon. In terms of the current seats all of Harrow east was in Hendon except the wards of Wealdstone and Kenton East. The Pinner and Hatch End wards which are in Ruislip Northwood now were also in Hendon togther with the Headstone North and Rayners Lane wards in Harrow West. Most of Harrow West was in Harrow. The bulk of the Harrow seat though was made up of most of the borough of Wembley (excluding the eastern part which was in Hendon) and the Greenford and Perivale areas which are now in Ealing North. It even extended as far south as Hanwell (Elthorne ward). It was one of the most bizarrely drawn seats of its time.
It would also now be one of the most ethnically diverse seats given the parts of Harrow it included together with Wembley and Greenford. I don’t think Oswald Mosley would be very impressed with it today, nor would he be very likely to win 66% of the vote there as an Independent
If Kenton East was in Harrow, what was Kenton West in? (a Harry Porter-style question, innit)
What would be the 2010 results of the 1931 Hendon and Harrow and Romford?
Kenton West was in Hendon – bizarre isn’t it?! (of course the present wards aren’t exact fits and it was actually split between the two, but with the greater part in Hendon)
I will be back with those figures for Richard
Romford
Con 77981 41.0%
Lab 62092 32.7%
LD 20701 10.9%
BNP 17177 9.0%
UKIP 7772 4.1%
Grn 1624 0.9%
oth 2735 1.4%
Hendon
Con 62262 43.9%
Lab 51689 36.5%
LD 22403 15.8%
UKIP 2669 1.9%
Grn 1836 1.3%
oth 831 0.6%
Harrow
Lab 58265 47.4%
Con 39496 32.2%
LD 19820 16.1%
Grn 1767 1.4%
UKIP 1512 1.2%
BNP 588 0.5%
oth 1397 1.1%
Those boundaries are indeed bizarre. There were some very strange boundaries in those days, and even more so before 1918. Nearer still to where I live, I find it amazing that Hampton was in an Uxbridge constituency, for example.
They aren’t quite so bizarre as they appear at first sight as they were based on the boundaaries of the various urban and rural districts and cicil parishes which existed at the time. I’m not sure if this link will work so will post on a separate post, but it illustrates it quite well
h ttp://visionofbritain.org.uk/iipmooviewer/iipmooviewer.html?fileName=bc_reports_1917/Middlesex_1917%3DUncredited%3DH.M.S.O.%3DBoundary+Commission+Report+1917%3DMiddlesex&x=83&y=30
Thanks for the map link.
That’s strange: I didn’t know there was an area to the east of Hayes called Norwood. I know that sometimes you can have a name for an area which becomes obsolete over time.
Yes its Southall basically though the old parish was called Norwood. there is an area (and a ward now) called Norwood Green (quite a pleasant area actually around the green)
Another example on that map of what you describe is South Mimms which subsequently took the name of the much larger Potters Bar
“Dismore is seeking Labour nomination for Barnet and Camden GLA constiotuency”
I think his major competition comes from Tom Copley. Copley is from Kentish Town and Camden has a larger Labour membership than the Barnet section of the constituency. The Camden MPs are supporting Dismore but the councillors are mainly (27 out of 30) for Copley
Dismore has been chosen to fight B&C next year against Coleman
Very interesting contest.
Andrew Dismore is the new London Assembly Member for Barnet and Camden, he defeated the Tory incumbent Brian Coleman with a majority of 21,299.
Interesting London Assembly Constituency Vote from within Hendon -
Lab 57.9%
Con 28.9%
Grn 4.6%
LD 4.5%
Oth 4.1%
Labour ‘won’ all seven wards within the seat – getting shares like 74% in Colindale and 73% in Burnt Oak. Mill Hill was their lowest share at 48%. This doesnt include postal ballots – which for all of Barnet were Lab 42%, Con 39.5%, LD 6.6%, Grn 6.6%, Oth 5.2%.
Postal Ballots made up 32% of all Barnet Votes. Not sure if they would weaken Labour’s result in Hendon that much, as assuming Finchley and Chipping Barnet will have provided more of that Conservative postal support. Labour still got a 10% lead in the Constituency vote over the Conservatives in Finchley and Golders Green.
That 29% Labour lead in Hendon is massive compared to leads in seats they already hold – like Westminster North and Tooting (5% and 7.6% respectively – excluding post ballots). Could point to some quirky London results in 2015?
Dismore probably still had some personal vote.
And Coleman has some negative personal vote. He was totally out of his depth
How was the situation on the list section?
But on the list vote the two parties were neck and neck and in the Mayoral vote Boris was nearly 20% ahead. This was one of the starkest examples of split -ticket voting ever seen in this country. Assuming that Brian Coleman is not the Conservative candidate here in 2015 then that result is not likely to be near replicated. Clearly Andrew Dismore’s personal popularity here was reflected in the result as well as it was in his very decent showing in 2010. Whether he will stand again here given he is now on the GLA is an important question
This probably shows why you can’t always use local results particularly for personality-driven contests as to the results for parliament. I think this seat is likely to return to Labour
I think the Tories will probably hold on here.
I have some connections with this seat, and think there is some demographic change at work which actually helps the Conservatives.
Not certain of course – the overall election could go either way,
but a most likely.
Joe: could you expand on that? It’s just that when I look at Hendon I see a seat trending Labour. In 2010, its vote was just 7% down on its 1997 level. Are you saying that this is going to be reversed?
I’d also be interested to hear about that. I have a lot of historical (family) connections to this seat but not many current ones and might only occasionally transit it on the A1 or M1or occasionally the train.
My impression is that Edgware has been going downhill pretty alarmingly since the 1980s while Burnt Oak and Colindale didn’t have any further to go in that direction. I’d imagine there could be some improvement in the Hendon area where some of the housing is older vintage and property prices are likely to price out some of the scabbier elements.
On the other hand I also get the impression that the Jewish population may be declining and that of other minority groups which are more likely to support Labour increasing. Certainly the continued influx of people from that community in Hertfordshire emanates largely from this part of the world. The census figures will be very interestnig here when they come out shortly. That said I think Andrew Dismore performed perfectly well amongst jewish votes and this is probably the key factor in explaing the large differential between the comstituency, list and Mayoral votes. Dismore may have won a majority of Jewish voters while far fewer of them voted Labour on the list and hardly any of them would have voted for Livinsgtone. This is why I said its an important question if he stands again. If he did I think he would probably win whereas another candidate may struggle more. But my general feeling is that this is another in the group of seats such as Enfield North, Ilford North and Croydon Central that the Conservatives are going to struggle in long-term because of unfavourable demographic change, so I’m interested to hear if there are some counterveiling trends going on in parts of the seat
I will update on this,
but it is to do with high house prices in Hendon itself,
and some new developments.
I get the impression there are some counter trends.
The LD vote never went high here anyway during the Labour years
so it follows they don’t have as much to squeeze.
In Edgware and Mill Hill, there seemed to be some support for the Tories even amongst middle class black voters – particularly Africans,
but it was distorted by the Boris vote.
The tory share has recovered alright since 1997, so doesnt seem to be heading downhill demographically recently?
“My impression is that Edgware has been going downhill pretty alarmingly since the 1980s while Burnt Oak and Colindale didn’t have any further to go in that direction.”
I did get that impression when traveling in Edgware recently, and on another occasion when passing through Hendon Central it did not appear as affluent as a recall some years ago.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Burnt Oak: 52.1% / 29.9%
Colindale: 39.3% / 22.7%
Edgware: 64.0% / 47.2%
Hale: 61.4% / 45.3%
Hendon: 55.9% / 39.4%
Mill Hill: 64.4% / 48.6%
West Hendon: 41.1% / 27.6%
TOTAL: 54.3% / 37.3%
White overall, Hendon:
2001: 66.5%
2011: 54.9%
Do you have the Jewish numbers for this constituency?
IIRC West Hendon vote for Boris in 2012.
I assumed that was because of a massive turnout among Jewish voters.
It ptobably was. West Hendon is 14% Jewish (concentrated in the east of the ward arounfd Hendon Park). Overall this constituency is still 17% Jewish
Census results, Jewish 2001 / 2011:
Burnt Oak: 1.6% / 1.2%
Colindale: 2.0% / 1.4%
Edgware: 36.7% / 32.6%
Hale: 17.9% / 19.4%
Hendon: 30.4% / 31.4%
Mill Hill: 16.9% / 19.0%
West Hendon: 14.5% / 14.1%
TOTAL:
2001: 18,155 / 104,925 = 17.3%
2011: 21,061 / 123,805 = 17.0%
Labour NEC organization subcommittee has recommended an Open shortlist to select their 2015 candidate. So this leaves the door open for Dismore.
Was Edgware in
Harrow 1885-1918
Hendon 1918-45
Hendon North 1945-97
Hendon 1997-present?
Oddly for a London MP, the Tory is very anti-gay, and I think there will be enough people willing to vote to get him out for that reason alone. Whereas those who give a high priority to the position he espouses probably voted for him anyway.
Interesting that Mike Freer, also formerly of Barnet council, and a Tory, took a diametrically opposite view in the debate