As JJB says, opinion is divided (and job losses are always something any party finds difficult to argue against) Local Essex communities would take a lot of convincing on the noise argument, and would oppose it on environmental grounds too - even Boris’ recent comments provoked some angry comments from local pressure groups. The associated developments - road and rail links, hotels, warehouses and the rest - would also create some opposition. It’s doable, and I’d personally support it, but it’s a serious risk electorally for any of the major parties (the LDs, though, might as well go for it - no estuary votes to lose )

Some consideration ought to be given to the merits of Manston.I understand it’s an old USAF base;it has a long runway which could take long-haul flights.It wouldn’t involve planes disrupting the lives of millions of people.I’ve read that Kent County Council would welcome the development to regenerate the area.It might also be be easier and cheaper to develop an existing airport rather than creating an artificial one in the Thames Estuary.

I am shocked by the Brentford ward result? Where did you get that. I live on Brentford/South Ealing border and if thats true then it does not look gd for Ann Keen. Even in the 2006 mauling Labour held on comfortably in Brentford and LD got a seat from a independent who stood down but on the flip side the recovery in Hounslow is good news for Labour. I am still inclined to predict a narrow labour hold.

I am shocked by the Brentford ward result. Where did you get that? I live on Brentford/South Ealing border and if thats true then it does not look gd for Ann Keen. Even in the 2006 mauling Labour held on comfortably in Brentford and LD got a seat from a independent who stood down but on the flip side the recovery in Hounslow is good news for Labour. I am still inclined to predict a narrow labour hold.

Tony Arbour carried Brentford on the constituency vote although Labour carried it on the list vote and Livingstone won it on the Mayoral vote. I agree that Ann Keen has much to worry about, though that is for another thread

A plausible explanation for why the Tories carried the mayoralty and constituency sections but not the list section is that voters in this seat didn’t like Ken (for being too left-wing) and didn’t like the Labour constituency candidate (for being Asian). Neither of those applied to the list section so, in conjuction with the fact that the Tory vote fell significantly to the benefit of the BNP (which polled nearly 10%), Labour was able to win by 320 votes (excl. postal ballots).

Although actualy more people voted for Livingstone than voted for the Labour party in the list. Your second explanation is more likely - namely that large numbers of BNP supporters ignored Boris Johnson’s exhortations not to vote for him and actually did so with their first vote. Ofcourse on the constituency vote there was no BNP candidate, although there was an NF candidate, but voters of all small parties would be more likely to support one of the main parties in the constituency vote - in the case of BNP and UKIP voters this would most likely be the Conservative.

Brentford has actually changed significantly in the last 10 years with the redevelopment of the docks, coffee shops etc. So there is greater mix of social classes but it still seems to me that Labour have the advantage with Ethnic minorities and professionals albeit with decreasing white working class support. I still think if the Lab vote turns out Keen will win with maj of 2000 or a bit less.

Re the white working class it’s interesting to see the far right oupoll the oh so trendy libdems in this ethnic seat in 2 out of 3 races. Did the greens not really resonate here?

There tends to be something of a positive correlation in most seats between the Greens and Lib Dems performance. If the Lib Dems do very badly in a particular seat it’s usually the case that the Greens also do very badly.

Here are the London 2008 figures for the Greens in Hayes & Harlington:

MAYOR: 385 votes (1.84%)

CONSTITUENCY: 1,034 votes (4.94%)

LIST: 848 votes (4.05%)

The Greens came behind the Lib Dems and BNP/NF in all 3 sections.

Well it’s a reasonable showing in the constituency vote, less so in the other two. It should be noted that when I was talking about the far right and races I should have perhaps written elections.