Hastings and Rye
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20468 (41.09%)
Labour: 18475 (37.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 7825 (15.71%)
BNP: 1310 (2.63%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Democrat: 339 (0.68%)
Majority: 1993 (4%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18528 (40.7%)
Conservative: 17323 (38.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7229 (15.9%)
Other: 2418 (5.3%)
Majority: 1205 (2.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16081 (37.4%)
Labour: 18107 (42.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6479 (15.1%)
Green: 1032 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1098 (2.6%)
Other: 207 (0.5%)
Majority: 2026 (4.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15094 (36.6%)
Labour: 19402 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4266 (10.3%)
UKIP: 911 (2.2%)
Green: 721 (1.7%)
Other: 824 (2%)
Majority: 4308 (10.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14307 (29.2%)
Labour: 16867 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13717 (28%)
Referendum: 2511 (5.1%)
Other: 1667 (3.4%)
Majority: 2560 (5.2%)
Boundary changes: Loses a small part of Rother Levels ward (the villages of Rye Foreign and Bowler`s Town) but gains the Brede Valley from Bexhill and Battle.
Profile: A seat on the south-east coast at the eastern end of Sussex. Hastings, Rye and small town of Winchelsea are all historic cinque ports. Hastings is naturally best known for the 1066 Battle of Hastings, though the site of the battle is actually in the neighbouring constituency of Bexhill & Battle. It was once an important fishing port (a fishing industry remains, but much reduced) but thrived as a victorian seaside resort. It met with the decline common to most such seaside resorts with the growth of foreign package holidays, falling into deprivation and decline, run down hotels becoming bedsits and accomodation for asylum seekers. More recently Hastings has begun to recover though regeneration and redevelopment projects.
Rye is another historic town and tourist centre, though more genteel with cobbled streets and medieval buildings. To it`s south east is the village of Camber and the brash holiday parks of Camber Sands.
This was an unusual Labour gain in 1997. The Liberal Democrats had been in second place in 1992 and it would have seemed more natural for them to benefit from the anti-Conservative tide. In the event it was the Labour party, possibly as a result of an opinion poll published in the Observer shortly before polling day showing the Labour party best placed to defeat the Conservatives in the seat.
Current MP: Amber Rudd (Conservative) Managing director of a recruitment and consultancy firm. Contested Liverpool Garston 2005.
Amber Rudd (Conservative) Managing director of a recruitment and consultancy firm. Contested Liverpool Garston 2005. 
Michael Jabez Foster(Labour) born 1946, Hastings. Educated at Hastings Grammar School and Leicester University. Solicitor, specialisting in employment law. Hastings councillor 1970-1977 and 1981-1985. East Sussex County councillor 1974-1997. Contested Hastings February 1974, October 1974, 1979. First elected as MP for Hastings and Rye 1997. PPS to the Attorney General 1999-2005. His unusual middle name is normally included to distinguish him from the other Michael Foster, the anti-fox hunting MP for Worcester who is disambiguated in his own way by being referred to as “Michael Foster Worcester” (more information at They work for you)
Nick Perry (Liberal Democrat) born 1976, St Helens. Educated at Cambridge University. Social worker.
Tony Smith (UKIP)Nick Prince (BNP)Rod Bridger (English Democrat)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 102075
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.4%
Born outside UK: 5.3%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 68.9%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 65.8%
Social Housing: 15.1% (Council: 2.1%, Housing Ass.: 13.1%)
Privately Rented: 15.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.8%
“In fact, from late 1992 through to about 2000 we had a good period of growth with exports rising faster than the growth in the economy as a whole.”
Exactly. From 2000 onwards was when China really started to boom and aggressively dominate international trade, undercutting western exporters and putting them out of business on a mass scale.
There can be no return to the competitiveness we had on export markets during the 1992-2000 period unless we cut our costs in half, which is completely unrealistic. Therefore that kind of recovery is not open to us this time.
The other problem is energy prices, especially oil but also gas and coal. All strong recoveries need cheap energy and we are not going to get that. That oil prices are atill above $90/brl even in such appalling global economic circumstances should be very very worrying.
It is going to be even more difficult than the recovery from the last recession yes, for those reasons, and some others.
I’m just a bit sceptical of some of the alarmist economists who are not real businessmen (or women).
We have to build up the knowledge and the design, but not necessarily the production, which can immediately be done cheaper somewhere else once it’s mass market.
These policies are long term.
Even further ahead, China would eventually become more in with the pack in terms of living standards enabling older developed countries a chance to export back.
“Even further ahead, China would eventually become more in with the pack in terms of living standards enabling older developed countries a chance to export back.”
That’s a long long long way ahead. Currently China’s GDP per capita is about one fifth of the USA, which is pretty similar to our own.
Sarah Owen selected by Labour http://www.sarahowen.org.uk/aboutsarah/
After the scale of Labour gains at a local level over the past few years, Amber Rudd must surely be on her way out in 2015
James B: agreed. The weakness of the swing in 2010 wasn’t a good sign for the Conservatives and subsequent events have borne this out.
I don’t know when Labour last won both the St Leonards wards but it’s not that common I know. It was a very good night for Labour in Hastings.
I didn’t actually think the tory performance in Hastings was particularly bad as the tory vote was only 3.7% down on 2010.
Having said that I still expect Sarah Owen to defeat Amber Rudd by about 1500 in 2015.
I’m not so sure Amber Rudd will necessarily be defeated in 2015 or whenever. She will still have her incumbancy bonus to look forward to, and the economy will be looking a lot better then.
Well hopefully it will. LD vote is very low here. If we are infront here, we will probably be the larger party.
I have to say Shaun and Joe R must be looking through some very rose-tinted spectacles. Have you looked at the Tories’ majority here- 1, 993 is not much for Labour to overturn but it might be quite close here in 2015.
To close to call for now.
No I disagree. The Tories’ disappointing performance in the local elections here is a bad indicator for Amber Rudd. Don’t forget, Labour held this with a majority in 2005 even higher than the one they got when they first won in 1997. That’s how popular Michael Foster was.
Well that may not be true, but the majority was only slightly lower than what it was in 1997.
“Don’t forget, Labour held this with a majority in 2005 even higher than the one they got when they first won in 1997. That’s how popular Michael Foster was.”
“Well that may not be true, but the majority was only slightly lower than what it was in 1997.”
OK whatever. Th point is that Michael Foster will not be the Labour candidate next time so based on that explanation, the Tories should be able to look forward if anything to an even BETTER result as the Foster vote unwinds.
Actually, I’m not saying that Amber Rudd will or won’t win. I am in complete agreement with LBernard that this sat is too close to call at the moment. It could well go Labour-indeed it MUST for them to win.
But don’t be surprised if it doesn’t.
Let’s wait a bit and see where we are a bit closer to the time.
This is one of those polarised, low-swing marginal seats. Actually quite similar to Corby.
Therefore it’s not easy to call at this stage and the majority either way will probably be very small.
I think Hastings itself probably reached rock bottom 5-10 years ago and has started to improve a bit.
The Tories were only 6% below their 1992 vote share in 2010 which is far better than most declining seaside seats, and does indicate that there must still be a relatively robust Tory vote in Hastings itself as well as in the relatively small hinterland of Rye, Winchelsea and Camber.
I actually don’t think this will be as easy for Labour as it looks on paper. Joe R is probably right that the Tories will hold it if they remain the largest party nationally.
The relative majorities in 97 and 05 were nothing to do with the previous MP and everything to do with the fact that in 1997 the anti-tories were split on how was best to defeat the tories – LD and Labour.
When Labour won the anti-tory vote moved over to labour from the lib dems.
This actually implies that the 2010 lib dems are quite resistant to voting labour as they didnt do so in the past to stop the tories they probably wont do so in the future. In seats like this, Warwickshire North etc. im expecting the LD-Labour swing to be at its lowest and at its highest in the south west were lots of left wingers vote LD tactically.
Warwickshire North is more of a stereotypical marginal seat where there are lots of floating voters. Therefore even if the Lib Dem vote doesn’t change much, there will be a lot of potential for switching between Con and Lab.
Hastings & Rye is one of those marginal seats which is made up of two equally sized chunks of safe core vote territory for each party. There are therefore few floating voters and much less potential for switching between Con and Lab. It will all be about turnout and what happens to the Lib Dem vote.