Hastings and Rye
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18528 (40.7%)
Conservative: 17323 (38.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7229 (15.9%)
Other: 2418 (5.3%)
Majority: 1205 (2.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16081 (37.4%)
Labour: 18107 (42.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6479 (15.1%)
Green: 1032 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1098 (2.6%)
Other: 207 (0.5%)
Majority: 2026 (4.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15094 (36.6%)
Labour: 19402 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4266 (10.3%)
UKIP: 911 (2.2%)
Green: 721 (1.7%)
Other: 824 (2%)
Majority: 4308 (10.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14307 (29.2%)
Labour: 16867 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13717 (28%)
Referendum: 2511 (5.1%)
Other: 1667 (3.4%)
Majority: 2560 (5.2%)
Boundary changes: Loses a small part of Rother Levels ward (the villages of Rye Foreign and Bowler`s Town) but gains the Brede Valley from Bexhill and Battle.
Profile: A seat on the south-east coast at the eastern end of Sussex. Hastings, Rye and small town of Winchelsea are all historic cinque ports. Hastings is naturally best known for the 1066 Battle of Hastings, though the site of the battle is actually in the neighbouring constituency of Bexhill & Battle. It was once an important fishing port (a fishing industry remains, but much reduced) but thrived as a victorian seaside resort. It met with the decline common to most such seaside resorts with the growth of foreign package holidays, falling into deprivation and decline, run down hotels becoming bedsits and accomodation for asylum seekers. More recently Hastings has begun to recover though regeneration and redevelopment projects.
Rye is another historic town and tourist centre, though more genteel with cobbled streets and medieval buildings. To it`s south east is the village of Camber and the brash holiday parks of Camber Sands.
This was an unusual Labour gain in 1997. The Liberal Democrats had been in second place in 1992 and it would have seemed more natural for them to benefit from the anti-Conservative tide. In the event it was the Labour party, possibly as a result of an opinion poll published in the Observer shortly before polling day showing the Labour party best placed to defeat the Conservatives in the seat.
Outgoing MP: Michael Jabez Foster(Labour) born 1946, Hastings. Educated at Hastings Grammar School and Leicester University. Solicitor, specialisting in employment law. Hastings councillor 1970-1977 and 1981-1985. East Sussex County councillor 1974-1997. Contested Hastings February 1974, October 1974, 1979. First elected as MP for Hastings and Rye 1997. PPS to the Attorney General 1999-2005. His unusual middle name is normally included to distinguish him from the other Michael Foster, the anti-fox hunting MP for Worcester who is disambiguated in his own way by being referred to as “Michael Foster Worcester” (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Amber Rudd (Conservative) Managing director of a recruitment and consultancy firm. Contested Liverpool Garston 2005. Michael Jabez Foster(Labour) born 1946, Hastings. Educated at Hastings Grammar School and Leicester University. Solicitor, specialisting in employment law. Hastings councillor 1970-1977 and 1981-1985. East Sussex County councillor 1974-1997. Contested Hastings February 1974, October 1974, 1979. First elected as MP for Hastings and Rye 1997. PPS to the Attorney General 1999-2005. His unusual middle name is normally included to distinguish him from the other Michael Foster, the anti-fox hunting MP for Worcester who is disambiguated in his own way by being referred to as “Michael Foster Worcester” (more information at They work for you)
Nick Perry (Liberal Democrat) born 1976, St Helens. Educated at Cambridge University. Social worker.
Rod Bridger (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 102075
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.4%
Born outside UK: 5.3%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 68.9%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 65.8%
Social Housing: 15.1% (Council: 2.1%, Housing Ass.: 13.1%)
Privately Rented: 15.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.8%
Harry. Hastings & Rye as constituted in 1983 contained the whole borough of Hastings plus the following wards of the district of Rother: Camber; Fairlight; Guestling & Pett; Rye; Winchelsea. There were no boundary changes in 1997.
There have been ward boundary changes so that the old wards of Fairlight and Guestling & Pett have become Marsham ward while Camber and Winchelsea now form the Eastern Rother ward. Brede Valley ward comes in from Bexhill & Battle while a small area to the north of Rye moves the other way.
The present wards in Hastings itself are (thanks to Wikipedia): Castle, Braybrooke, Silverhill, St Helens, Old Hastings, Ore, Tressell, Baird, Central St Leonards, Gensing, Maze Hill, West St Leonards, Ashdown, Conquest, Hollington, and Wishing Tree. I would guess all those wards (and their predecessors, if any) have of course always been in Hastings and Rye since 1983
What on earth was Mark Coote thinking when he walked away from this seat to go to Cheltenham where he has no chance of winning (looking at all of the recent local election results in the town)
Electoral Calculus predicts Cheltenham as a Conservative gain
I’d think this seat is the more certain gain but i’d hardly say there is no chance in Cheltenham. The Conservatives are perhaps narrow favourites there as opposed to strong favourites here at worst the chances in Cheltenham are about 50/50 (i find it pretty hard to call myself)
I reckon the Conservatives can & will win Cheltenham, too.
Well, I’ll call Cheltenham by 3,000 to the LibDems. There are no signs there of the Tories making any progress. They lost control of the Council at the last Election, failed to win a by-election in one of their target wards and have just lost a Councillor who defected to the LibDems. In addition, they have a very limited activist base and Mr Ashcroft’s money has been diverted to Labour held targets.
An earlier poster had commented that the Lib Dems will most likely lose two seats
at the Borough Elections, most likely Castle Ward will fall to Labour with a strong push from the Independent who has stood in the last two elections. Old Hastings is a three way marginal with the Tory just out in front at the current time. However the Labour candidate is a well respected local business figure and Lib Dem lives in the ward.
Tory’s are in melt down locally, high profile Tory Borough & County Councillor in front of Standard’s Committee to face a complaint over his conduct during last years County elections, this on top of revelations over the number of Freemasons in the local Tory Group. The Conservatives had considered that the seat was in the bag without the need to put in the work required. Michael Foster has great personally support however the boundary changes are not favourable to Labour.
Foster is far more popular then many of the individuals within the Labour group who will know doubt benefit from a May 6th General Election with the increased turn out.
Ashcroft funding is evident with at least half a dozen prominent bill boards across the Town and glossy publications hitting door mats.
Like many locally it is going to be a call of judgement on the day, the party I would want to support can not win and the level of tactically voting may just save the seat for Foster as the alternative is just not acceptable to many.
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
This seat has come up on a BBC blog – the view seems to be everyone either works for local government , is on the dole / IB , or sells drink / drugs.As someone put it it’s a piece of the North grafted on to the Sussex coast.
@Wolf
Which blog on the BBC please?