Harrow West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16968 (36.79%)
Labour: 20111 (43.61%)
Liberal Democrat: 7458 (16.17%)
UKIP: 954 (2.07%)
Green: 625 (1.36%)
Majority: 3143 (6.82%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20028 (49.3%)
Conservative: 12199 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 7551 (18.6%)
Other: 853 (2.1%)
Majority: 7829 (19.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18270 (38.3%)
Labour: 20298 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8188 (17.1%)
UKIP: 576 (1.2%)
Other: 427 (0.9%)
Majority: 2028 (4.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16986 (36.4%)
Labour: 23142 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5995 (12.9%)
UKIP: 525 (1.1%)
Majority: 6156 (13.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20571 (39.2%)
Labour: 21811 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8127 (15.5%)
Referendum: 1997 (3.8%)
Majority: 1240 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Gareth Thomas(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Rachel Joyce (Conservative) NHS doctor. Gareth Thomas(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Christopher Noyce (Liberal Democrat)Rowan Langley (Green) Herbert Crossman (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89264
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 34.4%
White: 57%
Black: 7.3%
Asian: 29.2%
Mixed: 3.5%
Other: 3%
Christian: 50.6%
Hindu: 18.3%
Jewish: 1.5%
Muslim: 8.3%
Sikh: 1.5%
Full time students: 5.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.6%)
Privately Rented: 13.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
Yes i’ve noticed a lot of changes around Brentford. I think to some extent Isleworth (including Syon ward) too. Broadly speaking you can see a quite clear pattern whereby the inner area which were developed before WW1have gentrified whereas the half-way out areas developed in the inter-war years have deteriorated. Thus while gentrification has had an obvious impact in Fulham, it has also now affected areas like Shepherd’s Bush, North Kensington and out to areas like Brentford and Acton. Brent borough illustrates the situation well. Whereas in the 80s it was still very clearly the case that Brent North was more desirable than the southern part of the borough, this is far more debatable now. While areas like Kingsbury, Sudbury and Preston have declined there has been gentrification in areas like Mapesbury, Cricklewood, Brondesbury, Kilburn and Queens Park. In this case much of the gentrification has been by public sector muesli eating middle class types so the result has not been increased Conservative support (though any potential increase may have been masked by the effects of the 2003 Brent East by-election).
LIkewise in Ealing, while the older eastern part of the borough has improved (or remained upmarket), there has been deteriotion in the north and west of the borough eg. in Greenford.
Central and South Harrow are very much siimlar to areas like Greenford and Wembley. Only when you get right out to the edge of the conurbation do you find that areas have maintained a relatively high status – Stanmore, Pinner, Ruislip, Northwood. Uxbridge is still in good shape IMO and Harefield is one case of an outer ward which has moved strongly to the Tories, partly through class realignment but also through considerable demographic change. It used to be a majority council housing ward but there have been lots of new private estates built.
Obviously I am just describing North West London but I think the pattern is similar in other corners of London. One difference of course is that the older inner parts of East London, for example, are not as close to the centre as to benefit from gentrification in the way that somewhere like Notting Hill has, but even so there are pockets around places like Shoreditch and of course the Isle of Dogs and Wapping have seen massive demographic change. Likewise areas like Ilford North are showing all the signs of going the same way as Greenford/Wembley/Harrow
I think that’s pretty much all very appropriate Pete (though personally even as a Left-winger I rarely have muesli! – and my work depends on the public sector, even though I work for a company in the private sector). What is interesting is how different parts of the same seat seem to be moving in opposite demographic or other political directions. That’s certainly true of Ilford North, also of Feltham & Heston and probably several other London seats.
Very true. I suspect its true in Brentford & isleworth as well with the Brentford & Chiswick end trending Tory while Hounslow and Osterley may still be moving the other way. I’ve mentioned before that the old Heston & Isleworth seat which was the one seat in Hounslow which was Tory throughout the 50s and 60s would now be the safest Labour seat in the borough while the two ends have trended the other way.
Incidentally I work in the public sector and a member of UNISON. So i’m well aware that the stereotypes don’t all hold
I thought of Brentford & Isleworth – although one might think that Hounslow has trended towards Labour, the Conservatives were still able to hold Hounslow South last year, though that includes a small part of Isleworth & even arguably Whitton. Osterley could be a different matter & while Labour have never won (Osterley and) Spring Grove ward outright it is unlikely to be too long until they do.
‘Incidentally I work in the public sector and a member of UNISON.’
Is that a joke or a lie?
Talking about gentrification in the east end.
I don’t know if anyone on here remembers the TV show The Chinese Detective? It was filmed around Wapping in 1981-82, amongst the derelict dockyard buildings just before they were demolished and redeveloped.
My mum was a fan and has just got the show on DVD. We watched a few episodes last weekend, and it was truly amazing to see the derelict site of Canary Wharf as it looked in the early 80s, and also the dock area next to Tower Bridge (St Katherines dock?).
I sometimes wish I was old enough to have seen these character-filled relics of old London for myself – many’s the time I’ve thought that whilst watching a repeat of The Sweeney.
The Isle of Dogs must have changed more than virtually any other ward in London.
“Is that a joke or a lie?”
No
And Shaun Bennett is a Health & Safety officer
Pete – do you post under your real name?
(I have often also wondered the same thing about Tim Jones)
Yes but you won’t find me on linkedin or any social networking sites
The Chinese Detective starred David Yip, who was a member of Arts for Labour, of which I was membership secretary in the early 80s. So was his wife Harriet Walter.
‘No
And Shaun Bennett is a Health & Safety officer’
Now surely that is a falsehood
‘(I have often also wondered the same thing about Tim Jones)’
You don’t have to worry about me using a pseudonym
I’m a nobody – and in stark contrast to Pete – work for a small, family-run company no one would ever have heard of which is well and truly in the private sector and whose employees are mostly on the minimum wage
Strange how one’s political affiliation can sometimes be the exact opposite as their job might infer
Whatever next
Barnaby a hedge-fund manager maybe
Barnaby said that he works in opinion polling.
My own profession matches my politics quite well.
I am self-employed as a metals and mining industry consultant. Most of my turnover, 80% or so, comes from overseas, mostly from the EU (which does admittedly colour my staunchly pro-European stance).
I admire all of you for posting under your own names. I personally would not like my present and potential clients google searching me and finding an archive of all my political opinions on here.
‘The Isle of Dogs must have changed more than virtually any other ward in London.’
Economically & socially certainly – although unlike in other parts of London – this doesn’t seem to have altered its politics that radically
This contrasts with somewhere like Wandsworth – which started to gentrify in the 1980s and whose parliamentary seats – Battersea, Putney, Tootting – have moved well to the Right within that time
obviously I realise you can’t compare a ward to a borough but I’m surprised there’s been virtually no knock-on effect from the gentrification of parts of the East End – Isle of Dogs in particular – and the majority of seats are a rock-solid Labour as they ever were
I’m not sure about that Tim.
The Dogs now has a full slate of Tory councillors.
On a borough or constituency level, they are outvoted by ungentrified areas that remain heavily Labour,
‘The Dogs now has a full slate of Tory councillors.’
That surprises me
Wasn’t this where the BNP got their first ever seat in 1993?
‘On a borough or constituency level, they are outvoted by ungentrified areas that remain heavily Labour,’
What seat is this in
Poplar & Limehouse is the only East End seat that has witnessed a significant swing from Labour to Tory and that still wasn’t enough for the Tories to win
Poplar & Limehouse includes the Isle of Dogs and Wapping and clearly there is evidence of increased Tory support there. The Blackwall and Milwall wards are both Tory held now – twenty years ago the Tory vote there was derisory (and yes it was the old Milwall ward that back in 1993 elected Dereek Beacon)
In response to HH, I don’t think I need to worry about that kind of thing, not least because I don’t express political opinions on here but just offer objective analysis of psephological matters. Tim might have more to worry about on that score, but his name must be very common. Mine is actually not all that uncommon.
Yes the BNP won Millwall in 1993.
Now the Dogs is split between 2 wards, Millwall and Blackwall & Cubitt Town, both Tory held.
Both wards are indeed part of the Poplar & Limehouse seat.
It was previously split between those two wards but then was divided into northern and southern with Blackwall occupying the northen half of the Isle and Millwall the southern part. Now the division is the other way and Blackwall occupies the east and Millwall the West. It would be interesting to know how the old wards would vote these days, as both current wards are still close.
H.Hemmelig is correct, although I don’t actually conduct voting intention polls at present (though of course that could change); I’m involved in working on surveys on crime, arts & leisure, community and other topics, generally on behalf of government departments. Before this I had the rather un-Labourish occupation of a shopowner. I do use my real name of course.
All the above about the Isle of Dogs is also correct of course. The gentrification has seen the Tories able to compete with Labour in the (now) split wards of St Katherines & Wapping, and Limehouse, but areas such as Shadwell, Bromley-by-Bow and most of the rest of the seat remain awful territory for the Conservatives. The Poplar & Limehouse seat hardly swung to the Conservatives at all, probably because of strong turnout in these ungentrified areas, and was in those terms a worse Conservative result than Hammersmith or even Westminster North. Clearly though it has levels of Tory support unheard-of a generation ago. What is perhaps odder is that the owner-occupied development of the Newham section of the old docklands has been unable to elect a single Conservative councillor so far in that area; indeed, the Tories are actually doing worse there now than they were when I lived in Newham in the late 80s/early 90s. This development I guess is of a less high residential quality, but considering Labour appeared in danger in Newham South in 1987 and 1992 it is striking how the threat seems to have fizzled out.
“This contrasts with somewhere like Wandsworth – which started to gentrify in the 1980s and whose parliamentary seats – Battersea, Putney, Tootting – have moved well to the Right within that time”
Battersea and Putney certainly. Tooting not so much. Much of the gentrification is in the northern wards of the constituency. Tooting itself (and indeed South Balham) has largely remained loyal to Labour. The Tories will not win this seat unless the demographic change in the north starts to happen in a major way in the southern bit. Should the seat have to cross boroughs in the next boundary review, then it will be taking territory from nearby Streatham and Mitcham which will further hamper Tory advance in the constituency.
I think rich bankers living on the Isle of Dogs, so that they are able to walk to work in Canary Wharf, are far more likely to vote Tory than someone living close to the river in Newham.
I think a lot of the Tory vote in Newham South in 1987 and 1992 was white working class….an endangered species in the area today
Tooting still looks like a Labour seat – around the Broadway and Bec tube stations in particular – although Balham has certainly gentrified (even though you might not know that passing through on the train)
I admit though I was pretty shocked that Tooting was seen as a viable Tory gain – although their performance mirrored that in London as a whole
In 1982 the Harrow Central constituency consisted of the following wards:
Whole: Greenhill, Harrow-on-the-Hill, Marlborough.
Part: Centenary (28%), Harrow Weald (1%), Headstone South (33%), Kenton East (26%), Kenton West (86%), Ridgeway (68%),Wealdstone (77%), Wemborough (19%).
@Tim Jones
Completely agree. The asian community is very well entrenched in Tooting and as long as they remain and they keep voting Labour, the Tories will never get the seat no matter how gentrified the rest of the constituency is.
Tim – although some of the Balham community is in the Tooting seat, Balham Ward itself (which has indeed swung demographically particularly heavily in favour of the Conservatives) is in the Battersea seat, which clearly helps Labour in the former & harms them in the latter.
That’s true, Barnaby, although Balham ward is not quite as Tory as Wandsworth Common which is in the Tooting constituency. Luckily for Labour, this is the only heavily Tory ward in the seat as the others have much narrower Tory leads while Bedford is usually won by Labour at GEs. There was a proposal from Wandsworth Tories about 10 years ago to move Wandsworth Common into Battersea and put Balham into Tooting to make the former more winnable for them. Had they been successful, Battersea would just narrowly have been lost in 2005 while the result in Tooting for Sadiq Khan last year would have been slightly higher.
Referring to an earlier post today,
yes I think Harrow is one of my least favourite parts of London.
But although there are demographic trends,
it clearly is still able to give the Tories a significant swing.
However, they remain about 10-11% below 1992 in both seats.
Harrow West
1992:Con Maj 18000 (approx)
2010: Lab Maj 3143
Rather more than 10 – 11%
There’s been a major boundary change since then though, Peter, in which the 3 strongest wards for the Conservatives by far have left the constituency, so I think Joe’s not far off the mark at all.
Indeed and Peter knows this well so I’m surprised he makes that point. I estimate that on current boundaries Harrow West would have had a Conservative majority just over 10,000 in 1992 and they would have won about 48-49% of the vote so yes they are down about 12% there and 10% in East.
On the general point of improving and deteriorating neighbourhoods I’ve noticed recently how tired and shabby many 1960s middle class estates are getting.
I wonder if this was an indicator in the Conservatives disappointing suburban results last year.
In contrast small towns seem to have grown in affluence (good schools a factor here?) as do new developments along motorways and centered upon supermarkets (which might be termed exurban in America).
Areas that have approved are the urban trendy areas in big cities such as Headingly in Leeds and Broomhall in Sheffield. These tend to be the 19C ‘West End’ but became very run down in the 1980s as the original middle class moved out. This rejuvination though has only happened in cities but not in medium sized towns (at least not in the north).
At one time the idea that a town like Cannock or Nuneaton would be a nicer place to live than somewhere like South Croydon or Harrow would have been a ridiculous proposition. That’s not so much the case today.
It could partly be that these sorts of designs don’t age well, and if everything was built at once, all the facilities deteriorate simultaneously.
To be honest, I was always somewhat surprised that the Conservatives were so strong in Croydon before 1992/97.
There does seem to be a difference between inner sububs which often have architectural merit and have plentiful local jobs and facilites within reach in the town/city centres, the drab middle suburbs which seem very samey and have few local jobs and dismal chav infested shopping precincts and the modern outer exurbs which have been built with variety and have good communications.
It would be interesting to see the electoral variations between middle and outer suburbs. I would expect a big swing away from the Conservatives in them since 1992.
I would certainly agree that I would much prefer to live in a traditional industrial town than in drab suburbia. In fact I know of several people who have left post war middle class suburbs to move ‘upmarket’ to new developments around pit villages. Something which would never have happened a generation ago.
I basically go along with that aswell.
Although there are tolerable exceptions – if they are near places which are nice.
For example, Whitton would be ok, because it’s near Richmond and Twickenham.
I also think Ilford North is ok because it’s still basically quite a reasonable residential area, not a shopping centre,
and there is a lot of green space, and quite good communications.
But I find the North West London suburbs of Harrow, Brent, and parts of Ealing incredibly depressing and chavvy nowadays.
I like being in London,
but in different circumstances, the thought of living in a spruced up former mining village sounds perfectly pleasant yes.
This relates to aspects of Conservative strategy that I’ve considered previously.
The Cameroons were inner suburb people with Notting Hill being a leading example of an improving, gentrifying full of life and jobs place.
It was easy to get the impression that all was well in the economy and society as a whole from Notting Hill. Whereas greater contact with middle suburbia would have shown the deeper underlying problems and how far they had become economically dependent upon welfare consumerism rather than being the traditional middle class places they were still assumed to be.
It does cast more light upon the failure of the Conservatives in constituencies such as Gedling, Sefton C, Wirral S, Bristol E, Leeds NE, Southampton Test as well as the London, Birmingham and Manchester outer suburbia.
What do you mean by welfare consumerism?
Do you mean reliant on public sector employment and credit cards,
but sluggish output in other areas of the economy?
It is strange how some of the areas you describe do appear to have declined.
And I don’t think it’s just to do with demographics.
It could be perception,
or it could be that they are no longer such attractive areas to live, as they don’t age well.
Maybe they find it harder to compete with areas with better communications – whether public or private.
I do feel fairly sure that although parts of Kingston, Harrow, Brent were never glamorous, they did seem to be filled with aspiring people who took pride in the area.
I’m not so sure that is the case now.
(Massive generalisations of course).
That’s an interesting point – you can have areas which don’t appear to be particularly nice but are thought of as desirable places to live and are inhabited by well-off people. And vice versa (though perhaps not so often).
“What do you mean by welfare consumerism?
Do you mean reliant on public sector employment and credit cards,
but sluggish output in other areas of the economy?”
Roughly speaking yes.
Although the word welfare is usually used in connection with ‘handouts’ to the poor and underclass I also think it can be applied to public sector jobs which are unnecessary or those which are overpaid. Its also related to the various tax credits and benefits. Effectively a process of wealth redistribution for whatever reason.
The consumerism relates to what has become the dominant aspect of the economy. The ONS numbers on how the shape of the economy has changed are fascinating to me.
Its revealing how Labour’s response to recession was to reduce VAT in order to boost consumerism – in the 1970s it would have been to directly subsidise industry.
As to the middle suburbs (at least those I’m familiar with, it may be different in London) there seems to be very few businesses in them. The only jobs being in retail plus health, education and other aspects of the public sector. In which case they wouldn’t have suffered much during the recession but would have more to fear from the aftermath.
I largely agree with Richard, and Andy.
Yes it does strike me also how few real businesses there are in these places.
If Richard’s political analysis is right though, then it follows that such areas will swing even more to Labour – certainly in the short and medium term.
(if not necessarily the country).
Thinking more about this, I do think part of what it is is that the aspiring people who looked after these places nicely in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s have probably moved to somewhere more desirable.
One of the issues with some of these suburbs is congestion, which can make them inefficient places to operate out of,
although various factors re-inforce each other, particularly when people see schools going downhill.
“If Richard’s political analysis is right though, then it follows that such areas will swing even more to Labour – certainly in the short and medium term.”
Definately.
I would love to what the Conservative strategists are thinking.
I suspect (but I always have negative suspicions about them) is that they still think the likes of Ealing N and Birmingham Selly Oak can be won again by ‘one more heave’ and if public sector workers lose their fear of a Conservative government.
Isn’t going to happen though. These places might have been won in the scenario the Cameroons planned on ie ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’ but areas which are predominantley wealth consuming (as the middle suburbs are) are not going to fare well for at least a decade (and probably never again).
If the Conservatives are going to win a majority of 50 next time they will need firstly to gain 10+ seats from the LibDems (the reduction in tactical voting should help here) and secondly make a big breakthrough in northern and midland industrial areas (the sort of places the Cameroons drive past when going from one city to another).
Thinking about the issues of improving and deteriorating neighbourhoods does anyone else think that town/city centre pubs have improved tremendously but those in traditional suburban areas are crap?
Pubs in small towns and villages are still nice as well.
Also, trees are often impressive in older areas but non existent in post war areas.
I think there’s some truth in that, but there’s a lot of variation.
I’ve been to decent pubs in Metroland or equivalent, and awful pubs in villages and City centres.
I do quite like those very large spacious pubs you sometimes get in suburban areas – that is one plus of them.
I don’t like big open plan pubs as they seem soulless.
Metroland suburban pubs need to be well maintained to remain nice, as do the areas they are in, whereas older pubs can still be characterful and distinctive even if a bit decrepit.
Generally I agree with you – but the larger pubs have a role if you want Sky Sports on, as they can cope with the crush better.
I certainly wouldn’t eat in them though.
That requires a village pub.
In fact, pub food is usually pretty dreaful in London – have to go north.
There used to be an excellent pub in Bollington, Cheshire where I have some family/friends.
All English.
I hope is survived the downturn.
Any news on the by-election in Harrow tomorrow? I see that former Tory Mayor of Harrow, ex-Cllr Silver is standing as an Independent. His campaign manager is James Bond! Seems to be much hatred of Tory group leader Susan Hall on various sites, from Tory members.
There are 6 candidates standing for the Stanmore Park by-election which makes it slightly more interesting than the Canons by-election a few weeks ago where there were only 3 candidates. Green and UKIP are standing in addition to Eric Silver.