Harrow West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16968 (36.79%)
Labour: 20111 (43.61%)
Liberal Democrat: 7458 (16.17%)
UKIP: 954 (2.07%)
Green: 625 (1.36%)
Majority: 3143 (6.82%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20028 (49.3%)
Conservative: 12199 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 7551 (18.6%)
Other: 853 (2.1%)
Majority: 7829 (19.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18270 (38.3%)
Labour: 20298 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8188 (17.1%)
UKIP: 576 (1.2%)
Other: 427 (0.9%)
Majority: 2028 (4.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16986 (36.4%)
Labour: 23142 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5995 (12.9%)
UKIP: 525 (1.1%)
Majority: 6156 (13.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20571 (39.2%)
Labour: 21811 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8127 (15.5%)
Referendum: 1997 (3.8%)
Majority: 1240 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Gareth Thomas(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Rachel Joyce (Conservative) NHS doctor. Gareth Thomas(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Christopher Noyce (Liberal Democrat)Rowan Langley (Green) Herbert Crossman (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89264
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 34.4%
White: 57%
Black: 7.3%
Asian: 29.2%
Mixed: 3.5%
Other: 3%
Christian: 50.6%
Hindu: 18.3%
Jewish: 1.5%
Muslim: 8.3%
Sikh: 1.5%
Full time students: 5.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.6%)
Privately Rented: 13.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
Labour councillor here arrested on charges of possessing child pornography
I don’t know the details of the case and I am not seeking to commen on the case in any way. But I do feel that we really do need to change the law with regards these sort of cases.
The nature of this sort of offence is such that the majority of people tend to judge someone who has been accused as being ‘guilty’ long before the case actually comes to court. Even if they are exonerated, their name has been forever tarnished as a ‘paedophile’ and they face ongoing vilification from the public. Often they have to leave the area or go into hiding. Some have to adopt an entirely new identity whether they were guilty or not.
Its time that these names were banned from being published by the media until they have been found guilty in a court of law. All too often, people who are accused find their lives destoyed WHATEVER the outcome of the actual police investigation and the legal process.
A little late but as some of you may know, this seat is one of ten in the “early tranche” of Conservative Party selections, which began on the 16th November and is set to be concluded by Christmas.
As per ConservativeHome – “None of these first ten have fast-tracked candidates – that is candidates who fought the seat at the last election and have asked to fight it again. A number of candidates in the other thirty of the forty seats have asked to be fast-tracked and are going through the relevant ConHQ and local approval processes.
Constituencies with less than 100 members will have to choose a three person shortlist given to them by a special ConHQ committee or choose their candidate by open primary.”
Hannah David has been chosen as Tory candidate for 2015. I think she’s a Cllr in Hertsmere
Grant Shapps launched Hannah David’s campaign http://www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/10120651.Senior_Tory_kick_starts_Harrow_general_election_campaign/
Bit early to start the 2015 general election campaign…
Unfortunately the average Tory voter tends to be allergic to women Tory councillors wanting to be MP’s.
@Wolf
Where’s the evidence for that?
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Greenhill: 46.8% / 25.7%
Harrow on the Hill: 49.5% / 34.4%
Headstone North: 58.0% / 39.1%
Headstone South: 49.1% / 31.1%
Marlborough: 44.1% / 23.0%
Rayners Lane: 47.3% / 26.6%
Roxbourne: 44.7% / 24.8%
Roxeth: 41.8% / 23.2%
West Harrow: 48.3% / 32.3%
TOTAL: 47.6% / 28.6%
White overall, Harrow West:
2001: 57.0%
2011: 40.1%
Harrow east by comparison:
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Belmont: 54.5% / 30.3%
Canons: 63.1% / 40.0%
Edgware: 30.5% / 16.8%
Harrow Weald: 62.9% / 40.7%
Kenton East: 28.7% / 14.3%
Kenton West: 33.7% / 17.8%
Queensbury: 29.3% / 13.3%
Stanmore Park: 67.2% / 46.9%
Wealdstone: 46.4% / 25.1%
TOTAL: 46.1% / 27.3%
Harrow East seems to have greater variances across the constituency.
Would I be right in assuming the Tory candidate Hannah David is from a Jewish background (not that it matters)? She’s a councillor in Hertsmere.
Yes
Although David isn’t a common surname in the Jewish community. It’s more commonly found in Wales. Davis is commoner & Davidson also not at all uncommon although Davis is essentially an English name (Davies is Welsh) and Davidson is a Scottish one. I
(whoops, continued) ……..have a feeling that Labour’s Annajoy David, a former Youth CND firebrand who stood in Scarborough & Whitby in 2010, might be of a Jewish background, however.
I can’t find the result of the West Harrow ward by-election held last night yet.
Assuming Labour did manage to hold the seat, their majority on the council is now down to just one, after both councillors in Harrow-on-the-Hill ward have been suspended/expelled from the Labour Group & Party.
Lab 1042 47.6%
Con 761 34.7%
UKIP 171 7.8%
Grn 96 4.4%
LD 68 3.1%
Ind 53 2.4%
Thanks Pete – that strikes me as a reasonable result for the Tories
what have the Harrow-on-the-Hill Cllrs done?
they’re accused of expenses-related misdemeanours.
Change since May 2010:
Lab +7%
Con -1%
LD -16%
A superb Conservative result, given the unfavourable demographics of the area and the fact that UKIP stood. Clearly in fact UKIP must have taken a lot of Lib Dem votes, as did Labour and the Greens.
The Tory and UKIP vote combined is very high for this area. HH is right, UKIP must have taken votes off most parties in this ward.
I still think we should be targetting this seat in 2015
Thnaks for the info on the HOTH cllrs Barnaby. I had no idea that they were suspended.
Turnout was 30 points lower than in 2010.
Who benefits from low turnouts in this kind of area considering that Labour is now in opposition nationally?
Thes circumstances of the previous Cllr’s resignation and Harrow council plan to raise council tax by 2% probably helped the Tory vote to hold up well.
@Barnaby, thanks
It looks like a pretty good turnout for a local by-election as well.
It is normal for Asian voters to turn out more strongly than whites in by-elections in London, hence there must have been a lot of Asian votes for the Tories here.
David Cameron is clearly going heavily for the middle class Hindu and Sikh vote, as evidenced by his focus on India and “apology” for the Amritsar massacre. Except for Ealing and Harrow, I wonder where else these votes might be electorally decisive? I would guess Brent North is too far gone for the Tories now.
“David Cameron is clearly going heavily for the middle class Hindu and Sikh vote, as evidenced by his focus on India and “apology” for the Amritsar massacre. Except for Ealing and Harrow, I wonder where else these votes might be electorally decisive? I would guess Brent North is too far gone for the Tories now.”
I’d have thought this strategy could have an impact in Brentford & Isleworth, home to a fairly large and affluent Hindu/Sikh population.
The strategy might also see the Tories doing better in Feltham & Heston though as with Brent North that seat is probably out of their reach now. It could well make Harrow West more marginal than it currently is but I would be surprised if Labour lost it in 2015. Ealing Southall is unlikely to be affected by Cameron’s endeavours but Ealing North could come into play especially if Stephen Pound stands down.
I don’t think that’s likely at the next election. Perhaps the one after.