Harrow West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20028 (49.3%)
Conservative: 12199 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 7551 (18.6%)
Other: 853 (2.1%)
Majority: 7829 (19.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18270 (38.3%)
Labour: 20298 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8188 (17.1%)
UKIP: 576 (1.2%)
Other: 427 (0.9%)
Majority: 2028 (4.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16986 (36.4%)
Labour: 23142 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5995 (12.9%)
UKIP: 525 (1.1%)
Majority: 6156 (13.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20571 (39.2%)
Labour: 21811 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8127 (15.5%)
Referendum: 1997 (3.8%)
Majority: 1240 (2.4%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Gareth Thomas (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Rachel Joyce (Conservative) NHS doctor.
Rowan Langley (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89264
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 34.4%
White: 57%
Black: 7.3%
Asian: 29.2%
Mixed: 3.5%
Other: 3%
Christian: 50.6%
Hindu: 18.3%
Jewish: 1.5%
Muslim: 8.3%
Sikh: 1.5%
Full time students: 5.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.6%)
Privately Rented: 13.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
Labours dominance in Brent North is down to huge swings in their favour in 1997 and 2001 (nearly 30% in just 2 elections). In Harrow West, it is much more down to the new boundary changes and demographic change. There is more potential for a large counter swing in Brent North whereas Harrow West is far more stagnant.
I would defer to others in this part of London quite a bit actually, but I would have instinctively thought the reverse - Brent North isn’t showing much sign of a big swing back, but this one could.
For what it’s worth, Iain, I think your party will hold both seats, with majorities cut.
A TAMIL candidate won support from Harrow voters in last week’s European elections for her campaign on civil and human rights for people in Sri Lanka.
City banker Jan Jananayagam, who used to live in Harrow, only decided to run in the elections four weeks before polling day and stood to highlight the Sri Lankan situation and put pressure on the international community to intervene.
She came third with 6,856 votes and polled 11 per cent of the vote to beat established parties including the Liberal Democrats, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Green Party.
Ms Jananayagam said she believed the Tamil community came out in force to give their vote.
http://www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/4427936.Tamil_candidate_comes_third_in_Harrow_EU_poll/?ref=mr
IMHO if she decides to stand for Harrow West and get suuport from local Muslim and Black community she can win the seat.
Atiq, we take a particular interest in this seat, it being the home of Ladbrokes HQ.
Ms Jananayagam might help the Tories out by nicking a chunk of the Labour vote, but I think it’s a bit optimistic to say she can win the seat. However I am loath to pass up an opportunity, and so we have put her in the betting at 50/1 should you wish to back up your opinion.
Lab 4/7
Con 5/4
Jan Jananayagam 50/1
LD 100/1
Errr the odds against a conservative win don’t look to long to me??? Boundary changes look to be significant.
It’s good for democracy that someone like Ms Jananayagam put herself forward and received 50K votes, boosting turnout in the process. Those voters may have stayed at home otherwise.
Shadsy,
If I am her campaign Advisor/Manager trust me she can win the seat.
Jan Jananayagam pulled off an amazing result for an independent in the awkward and bonkers voting system for Europe. More independent people like her would be welcome on ballot papers across the country.
So you would have a candidate who speaks for the Bangladeshi population and on issues purely to do with the internal matters of Bangladesh, or Nigerian candidates who do likewise, or Kurdish etc etc, all of whom can bring out voters en masse from their respective nationalities? I ahve to say I dont share the enthusiasm of doktorb and Andy Stidwill for this kind of development. Voters in Harrow West will be firstly electing a member of the national legislature of the United Kingdom to represent the interests of all the people in Harrow West and secondly they will be choosing a government for the United Kingdom and need to choose between candidates who offer distinct programmes for government on the whole range of issues and not limited to how the Foreign Office deals with the situation in Sri Lanka. It is one thing when ethnic minority communities vote en bloc for one of the establshed UK parties (and that itself is not healthy) but another when a candidate from one can stand on issues that are irrelevent to the majority of the population and to bring out people to vote on that basis who might otherwise not bother voting on demoestic political matters. It would be too strong to call it a corruption of the democratic process, as it is people exercising their right to vote as they choose but I dont think it is a good thing for democracy if this process is followed to its logical conclusion.
30% of the population is BLACK, MUSLIM and TAMILS. In the past nearly 99% of them have voted Labour, I doubt that they will be voting for Tories at next GE, even though they are fed up with Nu Labour.