Harrow West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20028 (49.3%)
Conservative: 12199 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 7551 (18.6%)
Other: 853 (2.1%)
Majority: 7829 (19.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18270 (38.3%)
Labour: 20298 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8188 (17.1%)
UKIP: 576 (1.2%)
Other: 427 (0.9%)
Majority: 2028 (4.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16986 (36.4%)
Labour: 23142 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5995 (12.9%)
UKIP: 525 (1.1%)
Majority: 6156 (13.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20571 (39.2%)
Labour: 21811 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8127 (15.5%)
Referendum: 1997 (3.8%)
Majority: 1240 (2.4%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Gareth Thomas (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Rachel Joyce (Conservative) NHS doctor.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89264
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 34.4%
White: 57%
Black: 7.3%
Asian: 29.2%
Mixed: 3.5%
Other: 3%
Christian: 50.6%
Hindu: 18.3%
Jewish: 1.5%
Muslim: 8.3%
Sikh: 1.5%
Full time students: 5.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.6%)
Privately Rented: 13.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
Interesting points from Pete, Richard, and Tangent. Is anyone willing to estimate the numbers here in 2009/2010?
My prediction here;
Labour 19500
Cons 17000
Lib Dem 6000
Others 1500
Mine is
Labour 22,000
C 18,000
LD 5,000
UKIP 600
A Tory gain is still possible if middle-class Asian voters swing to the Conservatives in a large mass movement, which we know has happened before, most especially in 1997 (to Labour on that occasion).