Harrow East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21435 (44.65%)
Labour: 18032 (37.56%)
Liberal Democrat: 6850 (14.27%)
UKIP: 896 (1.87%)
Green: 793 (1.65%)
Majority: 3403 (7.09%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19235 (45.2%)
Conservative: 16588 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 5994 (14.1%)
Other: 757 (1.8%)
Majority: 2647 (6.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18715 (36.8%)
Labour: 23445 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7747 (15.2%)
UKIP: 916 (1.8%)
Majority: 4730 (9.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15466 (32.2%)
Labour: 26590 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6021 (12.5%)
Majority: 11124 (23.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20189 (35.4%)
Labour: 29927 (52.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4697 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1537 (2.7%)
Other: 635 (1.1%)
Majority: 9738 (17.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Bob Blackman (Conservative) born 1956. Educated at Liverpool University. Former compliance manager for BT. Brent councillor since 1986 and Leader of Brent Council from 1991-1996. Unsuccessfully sought Conservative London Mayoral nomination in 1999. Member of the London Assembly 2004-2008. Contested Brent South in 1992, Bedford & Kempston in 1997 and Brent North 2005. MP for Harrow East since 2010.
Bob Blackman (Conservative) born 1956. Educated at Liverpool University. Former compliance manager for BT. Brent councillor since 1986 and Leader of Brent Council from 1991-1996. Unsuccessfully sought Conservative London Mayoral nomination in 1999. Contested GLA Brent & Harrow seat in 2003. Elected to the London Assembly in 2004 and currently (Nov 2006) Conservative group whip. Contested Brent South in 1992, Bedford & Kempston in 1997 and Brent North 2005.
Tony McNulty(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Nahid Boethe (Liberal Democrat) Former Harrow councillor. Contested Hayes and Harlington 2001, Hendon 2005.
Madeleine Atkins (Green) 
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP) Born 1980, Harrow. Educated at Millhill school and Leicester University. Law tutor.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88296
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 35.3%
White: 54.7%
Black: 6.1%
Asian: 34.4%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.5%
Christian: 41.3%
Hindu: 23.9%
Jewish: 10.3%
Muslim: 7.1%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 25.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.8%
Owner-Occupied: 77.4%
Social Housing: 11% (Council: 6.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 8.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Belmont: 54.5% / 30.3%
Canons: 63.1% / 40.0%
Edgware: 30.5% / 16.8%
Harrow Weald: 62.9% / 40.7%
Kenton East: 28.7% / 14.3%
Kenton West: 33.7% / 17.8%
Queensbury: 29.3% / 13.3%
Stanmore Park: 67.2% / 46.9%
Wealdstone: 46.4% / 25.1%
TOTAL: 46.1% / 27.3%
Pete has already given the white overall figures.
Quite an achievement for the Tories to hold this seat given the fact that 4 of 9 wards have a white British population of less than 20%.
The Tories have always tended to do better with the Asian vote in Harrow than elsewhere (probably because Gujaratis are more likely to have professional occupations than Sikhs, Pakistanis or Bangladeshis).
Census results – Jewish, 2001 / 2011:
Belmont: 13.7% / 8.1%
Canons: 35.9% / 24.6%
Edgware: 2.0% / 1.3%
Harrow Weald: 6.5% / 4.5%
Kenton East: 1.2% / 0.6%
Kenton West: 3.1% / 1.5%
Queensbury: 2.3% / 1.0%
Stanmore Park: 27.3% / 21.9%
Wealdstone: 1.2% / 0.7%
TOTAL:
2001: 9,134 / 88,296 = 10.3%
2011: 7,553 / 103,761 = 7.3%
I wonder how much ‘marrying out’ within Orthodoxy affects these figures? Reform/Liberal Jews are more open to conversion, and that has kept the population more stable in the USA
There has been a steady process of Jews moving out from Stanmore & Edgware to Elstree, Radlett & other areas further out, so I suspect that is a factor. If Andy could produce figures from the Hertsmere constituency, they would go some way to telling whether I am talking of my botty or not.
The Jewish population is still pretty high in both Canons & Stanmore Park – higher than I thought it was in fact. A pretty Orthodox Jew won the Canons by-election for the Conservatives not long ago.
The Hertsmere figures are available on that thread; I did them a few days ago.
Not hugely surprised by the drop in the Jewish population in Stanmore but I am a bit that it was more than in Edgware which only fell a bit. The muslim population has more than doubled at the same time in both Stanmore and Edgware and there is an Islamic centre and Madrassa there which most be a concern to Christian and Jew alike, especially as Bushey is the next in line for this migration
@ Barnaby Marder
“A pretty Orthodox Jew won the Canons by-election for the Conservatives not long ago.”
Oh really, what was her name..?
@ Pete Whitehead
“…there is an Islamic centre and Madrassa there which most be a concern to Christian and Jew alike…”
Only if they share your prejudices.
I meant a FAIRLY Orthodox male Jew.
Sorry, Barnaby – couldn’t resist.
What was Bob Blackman thinking about, pontificating about “the sanctity of marriage” in the gay marriage debate in the house the other day? He must have known the papers would dredge up the story about his 11 year extra-marital affair….maybe it was a loyalist governement whip who leaked it.
He might as well have gone the whole hog and said “it’s time to get back to basics”. Not great publicity for an MP with such an Asian constituency.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/bob-blackman-top-tory-mp-1492423
Thanks Andy, I had a look at the figures for Jewish population in Hertsmere & they do seem to bear out my perception a bit.
I think a madrasa would be a very good thing if it were to teach, amongst many other things, that Islam frowns upon, condemns & opposes killing people because of their religious or political beliefs, and indeed because of what they appear to symbolize or where they live or work. I have no problems with a madrasa per se, nor should anyone else – only with certain very specific types of madrasa, which I am quite sure would be only a small minority of such places.
@ Barnaby
Well said.
I’ve also posted the Jewish population census results for the Hampstead & Kilburn constituency. I think I’ve covered all of the constituencies with significant Jewish populations now, although I haven’t done Cities of London & Westminster which may have slightly more Jewish people than the average London division.
Thanks Andy, although I’m not a practising Jew (indeed, I break all the dietary laws going almost every single day, and am a near-atheist) I am interested in this sort of thing. I have noted the sharp increase in the Jewish population in Golders Green ward (from an already very high base); anecdotally the word was that the area was becoming less Jewish and more Indian, but that seems to be entirely false now. Probably it’s the ultra-Orthodox breeding furiously once more
– Golders Green has more ultra-Orthodox Jews than other middle-class areas in North London, as opposed to Clapton, Stoke Newington & Stamford Hill.
I have always wondered if we Jews were on the radar at all in either Oxford or Cambridge. If we are, it would be largely secular academics, and a mixed bunch of students. One other constituency with a large Jewish tradition is Hove, though there hasn’t been a Kosher butcher in Brighton or Hove for a generation now.
I assume Andy was only referring to the constituencies in and around London otherwise he would obvioulsy have done Bury South, Blackley & Broughton etc
He has done a summary under Bury South
I suspect the Lib Dem vote will go below 10% here – but stay quite close to it.
Having been a rather high swing seat from 1992 onwards,
if could be a stand still seat next time.
Not a vast number of LD votes for Labour to gain.