Comments on: Harrogate and Knaresborough

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 14:55:18 +0000

I don’t think the Lib Dems will have much chance of winning this back. Most likely it will be one of those seats where they fall a long way behind in subsequent elections following their defeat.

In 2015 they will be too busy trying to hold Leeds North West to make much effort here.

By: Tory

Tory — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 23:49:09 +0000

A Cairns: the prospect of Labour improving its share is a real problem for the Lib Dems in seats like these.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 23:00:25 +0000

The tory vote held firm but Labour support went up from nowhere to 15-17% having put up no candidates in 2010.

By: John D

John D — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 22:05:08 +0000

Incidentally, I was surprised by how well the Conservatives did here in May 2011, gaining control of the council with a comfortable majority.

The MP Andrew Jones stood down from the council last year, but the party easily held his seat (High Harrogate), which Mr Jones had gained from the LDs in 2003.

I think the Lib Dems will have a fight on their hands in trying to unseat the MP. He seems to have got stuck in on the local level.

Even better, he may not have been born in Harrogate, but being from another Yorkshire spa town not very far away (Ilkley) is probably good enough .

By: John D

John D — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 22:03:50 +0000

“I thought it was interesting that the lib dems lost this anyway given that Clegg was a yorkshire mp.”

I think I read somewhere that Hague’s leadership did seem to give the Tories’ a better result (swing-wise, I presume) in the Yorkshire region than in some other regions. Although obviously that’s not saying much, given the national result in 2001.

However, there are two points which I think may have limited any particular effect in Harrogate on the LD performance from Clegg being a Yorkshire MP.

One is that, although Harrogate and Sheffield are both in Yorkshire, they’re pretty far apart in many ways (not just geographically speaking)…
Who knows, if Clegg had been MP for Leeds North West there may have been a more noticeable knock-on effect in this seat.

Two. Nick Clegg does not come accross as very Yorkshire – because he isn’t, unlike Hague.

By: sbjme19

sbjme19 — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 16:52:12 +0000

I agree that this is probably a Tory hold and that the Libdem gain had a lot to do with Lamont’s candidacy and then Willis dug himself in. There was no particular sign of things to come in 1992 – the second place Libdem vote fell a bit by the same amount as the Tories did.

By: Douglas

Douglas — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 12:14:52 +0000

With regards to the discussion at the top of the page on nice, medium-sized towns whic voted Lib Dem and may have had Liberal voting patterns at the start of the 20th century, many of these places are cathedral cities and therefore had a bigger than average Church of England presence, meaning that they tended to be far stronger for the Tories (religious affiliation back then probably being the single most reliable indicator of voting patterns across most of the UK).

Incidentally I wonder if constituencies with large numbers of CoE members tend to be more Conservative when compared to dempgraphically similar areas? One might suspect not given the Archbishop of Canterbury’s comments but then the Church of England has been described as a million Telegraph readers being ministered to by ten thousand Guardian subscribers…

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 16:58:05 +0000

‘I wonder if this could be a possible LD regain at the next election.’

the lib dems won this seat because of Phil Willis

Unless they find another local man as liked and respected, I can only see the Tories increasing their majority next time round

People forget that much of North Yorkshire is as Tory as Surrey and Buckinghamshire

By: A Brown

A Brown — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 16:40:48 +0000

OK, generally didn’t think so. I thought it was interesting that the lib dems lost this anyway given that Clegg was a yorkshire mp.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 16:36:41 +0000

If Clegg’s appeal wasn’t strong enough when he was at 30% in the polls, I very much doubt it will be strong enough in 2015.