Harrogate and Knaresborough
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24305 (45.74%)
Labour: 3413 (6.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 23266 (43.79%)
BNP: 1094 (2.06%)
UKIP: 1056 (1.99%)
Majority: 1039 (1.95%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25228 (51.8%)
Conservative: 17417 (35.8%)
Labour: 4461 (9.2%)
Other: 1558 (3.2%)
Majority: 7811 (16.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13684 (31.9%)
Labour: 3627 (8.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 24113 (56.3%)
BNP: 466 (1.1%)
UKIP: 845 (2%)
Other: 123 (0.3%)
Majority: 10429 (24.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14600 (34.6%)
Labour: 3101 (7.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 23445 (55.6%)
UKIP: 761 (1.8%)
Other: 272 (0.6%)
Majority: 8845 (21%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18322 (38.4%)
Labour: 4159 (8.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 24558 (51.5%)
Other: 614 (1.3%)
Majority: 6236 (13.1%)
Boundary changes: The new seat is greatly expanded in area, the previous boundaries were quite tightly drawn around Harrogate and Knaresborough, the new seat gains the wards of Killinghall, Claro and Boroughbridge from Skipton and Ripon and the dismembered Vale of York constituency, adding a swatge of rural villages stretching out to the east of Harrogate.
Profile: A genteel North Yorkshire town that becaming a thriving spa town for the English elite in the nineteenth century and has more recently specialised as a conference venue, and has hosted several Liberal Democrat party conferences. The seat also includes the historic market town of Knaresborough to the East of Harrogate itself.
Seeped in affluent Victorian splendour and associated with antiques and teashops, historically Harrogate was the safe Conservative seat one might expect, but in 1997 it was lost to the Liberal Democrats by Norman Lamont, who stood in the seat after his own Kingston seat had been abolished as part of the boundary review. He was perceived as a carpetbagger and amongst the nationwide swing against the Tories lost the seat. Since then Phil Willis has built it into one of the Liberal Democrats` safer seats.
Current MP: Andrew Jones (Conservative) . Educated at Bradford Grammar and Leeds University. Marketing consultant. Chairman of the Bow Group from 1999-2000. Contested Harrogate in 2001.
Andrew Jones (Conservative) . Educated at Bradford Grammar and Leeds University. Marketing consultant. Chairman of the Bow Group from 1999-2000. Contested Harrogate in 2001.
Kevin McNerney (Labour) Employment lawyer for the RCN.
Claire Kelley (Liberal Democrat) born 1956, Elgin. Educated at University of Sussex. Casework assistant for Phil Willis. North Yorkshire county councillor 1997-2005 and Harrogate district councillor 1992-2002.
John Upex (UKIP) born Leeds. Businessman, running a manufacturing company. Contested Wakefield 2005 for UKIP, Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008 as Independent.
Steve Gill (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97869
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 98.2%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 77.8%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 25.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 77.5%
Social Housing: 9% (Council: 5.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
But the constituency in Surrey which is perhaps most similar is Guidlford.
Which is another place the LibDems have previously done well in.
It occurs to me that the places where the LibDems do well would have been regarded as major towns in 1750 ie before the industrial revolution:
Harrogate
Guidford
Bath
Cheltenham
Hereford
Truro
Taunton
Winchester
Colchester
Cambridge
Southport
Berwick
You could add: Norwich, Chelmsford, St Albans, Maidstone, Canterbury, Salisbury
York
Hull
Stratford
Richmond-Kingston
Newbury
Oxford
Buxton
Interesting pattern though.
I imagine most of these places would have been good for the LibDems prior to the emergence of the Labour party.
Harrogate can’t have been that important a town in 1750 as it did not elect an MP of its own, and that continued to be the case post the 1832 Reform Act. Knaresborough returned two members (and continued to do so after 1832), but I can only assume that the voters of Harrogate only had a vote in the vast Yorkshire County Constituency.
Southport is actually relatively young, with the first foundation dating back to only 1793 (although there were some settlements predating the first ‘Duke’s Folly’ hotel), which means that it is predated by Blackpool as a resort by a good few decades.
That said, I think it’s hardly accidental that Lib Dems do so well against the grain in what are effectively single-town constituencies. It’s easier to build up a personal vote, perhaps, in small towns than in a slice of anonymous suburbia (although, as the LDs in London have proved, it’s not impossible).
Southport and Chelmsford were also not considered important enough to receive representation of their own until the next big reform act of 1885.
James – you missunderstood what I said. The figures you mention show who would have won based on the votes in 2005. What I meant was that the Lib Dems would have won in 2010 if the boundaries hadn’t changed.
My (tongue-in-cheek) point was that by calculating the difference between the actual and notional 2005 results above, one can see clearly that it is somewhat larger than the 2010 majority and therefore that a majority of about six per cent might have been expected under 2005 boundaries. No need to talk to the parties in Harrogate to make this deduction.
‘You could add: Norwich, Chelmsford, St Albans, Maidstone, Canterbury, Salisbury’
Could you?
Apart from Norwich South the Lib Dems have never won any of the above seats
Even the old liberals didn’t fare well in most of them
Since the beginning of the 20th century
Apart from a one-year spell between 1923-24 the Libs have never won Chelmsford
Soo too St Albans – whicvh they won for a trwo-year spell in 1904 – at the height of the Tory government’s unpopularity – and held on until 1906 – the equivalent of a 1993 Christchurch if you like
The Libs held Maidstone from 1900-1906 and Salisbury twice – from 1906-1910 and 1923-24 – whereas they have never won Canterbury
The Lib Dems do best in largely middle class towns with a relatively high proportion of young A/B professionals and academic university types
Apart from the odd occasion – 1997 for example – these consituents are generally a bit too posh to vote Labour but are waaay to the left of the Tories, so put their lot in with the Lib Dems
It’s also worth pointing out that they only do well when they have good, local candidates, and thjose who don’t live up to this billing tend to get found out, and then booted out at subsequent elections
Town Council by election in Knaresborough King James ward last night. A Tory gain with a swing of 25% from the Lib Dems on the result on 6 May.
Tory majority of nearly 400 compared to a Lib Dem majority of just over 500 in the same ward on 6 May.
‘[Harrogate was in the Ripon seat] from 1885′
I presume before then it was in the two-seat constituency of Yorkshire North Riding?
A stunningly good result for the tories here, and a remarkably bad one for the Yellows. Presumably the latter are out of contention here for generations.
“I presume before then it was in the two-seat constituency of Yorkshire North Riding?”
Presumably it was in the West Riding
I don’t know why the LDs did so badly here. I didn’t think Phil Willis was hugely popular as a local MP but maybe so.
The Tory vote may have simply been dormant until they recovered (or partly recovered) nationally.
I will be in Knaresborough on Thursday/Friday.
I’ve been to Harrogate but not Knaresborough. Was there on 11th September 2001 actually – wouldn’t be able to remember the date otherwise.
thanks for the warning Joe
only kidding – enjoy yourself. lovely town it is.
Thanks Barnaby,
sketch of the river Nidd gorge if there’s time.
The electorate wanted to give the Tories a kicking in 1997, especially with a high profile candidate such as Norman Lamont. I suspect that Phil Willis was a popular MP who kept the voters away from their traditional loyalties until he retired.
Willis appeared on the Politics Show on Sunday (on the local programme) arguing with Fabian Hamilton about cuts, kept repeating the phrase “Where will the money come from, where will the money come from? You spent it!”
I think the result here showed how vital to the LibDems incumbancy is.
The following LibDem constituencies have MPs born in the 1940s (with second place party):
Bath – Con
Berwick – Con
Brecon – Con
Burnley – Lab
Colchester – Con
Fife NE – Con
Gordon – SNP
Hazel Grove – Con
Portsmouth S – Con
Southport – Con
Twickenham – Con
While these have LibDem MPs born in the 1950s:
Aberdeenshire W – Con
Argyll – Con
Bradford E – Lab
Caithness – Lab
Cheadle – Con
Eastbourne – Con
Eastleigh – Con
Hornsey – Lab
Lewes – Con
Norfolk N – Con
Redcar – Lab
Ross – Lab
Solihull – Con
Somerton – Con
Southwark – Lab
St Ives – Con
Torbay – Con
Wells – Con
I suspect there will be more ‘shock’ Conservative gains from the LibDems over the next few general elections.
Mid Dorset and North Poole should be added to the list of those with MPs born in the 40s.
DW
Thanks
Whenever I draw up a list I always manage to miss something off!!
I would imagine that some of the older left wing LibDem MP’s who are growing uneasy with the coalition such as Simon Hughes and Bob Russell would retire in 2015 leaving Bermondsey/Southwark and Colchester with open seats which would be vulnerable to Tory and Labour gains respectively.
You mean Labour and Cosnervative gains respectively.
I don’t think its any coincidence that the two LibDems said to be most disaffected are Hancock in Poirtmsouth S and Russell in Colchester as both were born in the 1940s and so are probably not planning to stand again.
Ripon’s representation was cut to one member in 1868, was Harrogate moved to that seat at that time or was it still in the Yorkshire West Riding seat?
Ripon’s representation was cut to one member in 1868. Was Harrogate moved to that seat at that time or was it still in the Yorkshire West Riding seat?
James Ramsden, Conservative MP for Harrogate 1954-74, celebrated his 87th birthday earlier this month. He was the last person to hold the office of Secretary of State for War in 1963-4.
I wonder if this could be a possible LD regain at the next election. Is it plausible that the LDs could win back con votes and that Clegg could have appeal here? Or is the potential tactical unwind just too great?
If Clegg’s appeal wasn’t strong enough when he was at 30% in the polls, I very much doubt it will be strong enough in 2015.
OK, generally didn’t think so. I thought it was interesting that the lib dems lost this anyway given that Clegg was a yorkshire mp.
‘I wonder if this could be a possible LD regain at the next election.’
the lib dems won this seat because of Phil Willis
Unless they find another local man as liked and respected, I can only see the Tories increasing their majority next time round
People forget that much of North Yorkshire is as Tory as Surrey and Buckinghamshire
With regards to the discussion at the top of the page on nice, medium-sized towns whic voted Lib Dem and may have had Liberal voting patterns at the start of the 20th century, many of these places are cathedral cities and therefore had a bigger than average Church of England presence, meaning that they tended to be far stronger for the Tories (religious affiliation back then probably being the single most reliable indicator of voting patterns across most of the UK).
Incidentally I wonder if constituencies with large numbers of CoE members tend to be more Conservative when compared to dempgraphically similar areas? One might suspect not given the Archbishop of Canterbury’s comments but then the Church of England has been described as a million Telegraph readers being ministered to by ten thousand Guardian subscribers…
I agree that this is probably a Tory hold and that the Libdem gain had a lot to do with Lamont’s candidacy and then Willis dug himself in. There was no particular sign of things to come in 1992 – the second place Libdem vote fell a bit by the same amount as the Tories did.
“I thought it was interesting that the lib dems lost this anyway given that Clegg was a yorkshire mp.”
I think I read somewhere that Hague’s leadership did seem to give the Tories’ a better result (swing-wise, I presume) in the Yorkshire region than in some other regions. Although obviously that’s not saying much, given the national result in 2001.
However, there are two points which I think may have limited any particular effect in Harrogate on the LD performance from Clegg being a Yorkshire MP.
One is that, although Harrogate and Sheffield are both in Yorkshire, they’re pretty far apart in many ways (not just geographically speaking)…
Who knows, if Clegg had been MP for Leeds North West there may have been a more noticeable knock-on effect in this seat.
Two. Nick Clegg does not come accross as very Yorkshire – because he isn’t, unlike Hague.
Incidentally, I was surprised by how well the Conservatives did here in May 2011, gaining control of the council with a comfortable majority.
The MP Andrew Jones stood down from the council last year, but the party easily held his seat (High Harrogate), which Mr Jones had gained from the LDs in 2003.
I think the Lib Dems will have a fight on their hands in trying to unseat the MP. He seems to have got stuck in on the local level.
Even better, he may not have been born in Harrogate, but being from another Yorkshire spa town not very far away (Ilkley) is probably good enough
.
The tory vote held firm but Labour support went up from nowhere to 15-17% having put up no candidates in 2010.
A Cairns: the prospect of Labour improving its share is a real problem for the Lib Dems in seats like these.
I don’t think the Lib Dems will have much chance of winning this back. Most likely it will be one of those seats where they fall a long way behind in subsequent elections following their defeat.
In 2015 they will be too busy trying to hold Leeds North West to make much effort here.