Harlow
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19691 (44.88%)
Labour: 14766 (33.65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5990 (13.65%)
BNP: 1739 (3.96%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.63%)
Christian: 101 (0.23%)
Majority: 4925 (11.23%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16431 (41.6%)
Conservative: 16074 (40.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5040 (12.8%)
Other: 1932 (4.9%)
Majority: 357 (0.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16356 (41.2%)
Labour: 16453 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5002 (12.6%)
UKIP: 981 (2.5%)
Other: 941 (2.4%)
Majority: 97 (0.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13941 (34.8%)
Labour: 19169 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5381 (13.4%)
UKIP: 1223 (3%)
Other: 401 (1%)
Majority: 5228 (13%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15347 (32.1%)
Labour: 25861 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4523 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1422 (3%)
Other: 659 (1.4%)
Majority: 10514 (22%)
Boundary changes: Very minor – loses Broadley Common and Roydon Hamlet to Epping Forest while gaining Hastingwood and Matching from Epping Forest and Brentwood respectively.
Profile: An essex new town built from 1947. Harlow is surprising Conservative considering its high proportion of social housing and domination by the skilled working class and the lower middle class. In 2005 it was one of the most marginal seats and the final seat to be declared. The result was announced on Saturday morning after three recounts, the count having been suspended on Friday due to the tiredness of the counters.
Current MP: Robert Halfon (Conservative) Educated at Highgate School and Exeter University. Former Chief of Staff to Oliver Letwin and current Political Director of Conservative Friends of Israel. Contested Harlow 2001, 2005.
Robert Halfon (Conservative) Educated at Highgate School and Exeter University. Former Chief of Staff to Oliver Letwin and current Political Director of Conservative Friends of Israel. Contested Harlow 2001, 2005.
Bill Rammell(Labour) born 1959. Educated Burnt Mill Comprehensive and Cardiff University. Worked as a university adminsitrator prior to his election. Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office during the last Parliament, became Minister of State with resibility for higher and further education after the 2005 election (more information at They work for you)
David White (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Oxford University.John Croft (UKIP)
Eddy Butler (BNP) Educated at University of London. BNP national elections officer. Contested Eastern region 2009 European elections.Oluyemi Adeeko (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89207
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 6.1%
White: 95.2%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 68.3%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 62%
Social Housing: 31.7% (Council: 28.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.6%
“some people who thought that, in the Tories’ darkest days of the Blair era, somehow they could be replaced as the leading anti-Labour party by the Lib Dems”
If that had happened the LibDems would have metamorphosised into the Conservative party or UKIP would have replaced the Conservatives as one of the two main parties..
The basic electoral pattern in western countries is a big centre-left party and big centre-right party.
Having two centre-left parties as the main parties, which was what those who thought the LibDems would replace the Conservatives wanted, would have left an unstable electoral vacuum.
The Lib Dems would never be able to replace either of the 2 parties for that very reason
although they have of course caused both serious difficulties at different times
after 1979.
‘Lib Dems are the true enemy. In fact I dislike them with a passion. Why? Because their single overriding ambition, their only real political objective in life is to destroy this country and everything it represents.’
Even by your standards that’s a completely unfounded and indeed fairly childish accusation
Apart from a few power-hungry egotists and those who feel they were born to rule, l still believe most people go into politics for the right reasons – from all political persuasions
A lot of the current crop of Lib Dem MPs – as I’m sure have many Tory and Labour MPs – have given up massively remunerated jobs – that people like you and I could only dream of getting – to get involved in trying to make this country a better place.
If their real intention is trying to ‘destroy this country and everything it represents’ they could have fooled me
In fact you’re way out of line trying to suggest it is
‘The basic electoral pattern in western countries is a big centre-left party and big centre-right party.’
That’s undoubtedly true but there are some exceptions – Ireland, where politics is dominated by two centre-right parties, and the US, where you get the centrist Democrats up against the increasingly Right Wing Republicans
Is not Portugese politics dominated by two parties from the Left?
No
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(Portugal)
The centre right party goes by a variety of names around the world – Conservatives, Liberal Democrats. Liberal Nationals, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Unionists, Populars, Progressives and whatever the French Gaullists are calling themselves this decade.
The USA and Ireland political situation has origins in their respective civil wars.
The US is now evolving into the standard centre-left and centre-right parties taking account that the USA is a more right wing country overall.
But for much of the time since 1865 the Democrats were half trade union Labour and half racist BNP while the Republicans had ‘middle American’ conservatives and some progressive metropolitans.
Ireland is also now moving towards the standard formula in which Fine Gael will be the centre-right party and Labour will be the centre-left.
I’m not sure Fianna Fail were ever really a ‘proper’ centre-right party – more of a socially conservative economically populist group rather similar to the southern Democrats. And like them big on pork barrel politics.
I don’t understand the objections Tim has about Robert Halfon.
He is a very worthy kind of chap who seems dedicated to the welfare of his constituents, and public service.
There are demographic trends in Harlow, but the Tory share has risen 13.3% since 1997 – under him as candidate and now MP.
The rise across the country as a whole is 5.6%, so if his performance was repeated across the board, the Tories would have gone slightly above where they were in 1983-92.
Richard – in Jamaica the main right-wing party is called the Jamaica Labour Party. The left is represented by the People’s National Party (PNP). I think the same is true of Barbados.
“I don’t understand the objections Tim has about Robert Halfon.
He is a very worthy kind of chap who seems dedicated to the welfare of his constituents, and public service.”
I agre. I assume Tim’s objection is based on his role in the Conservative Friends of Israel. Tim like many in his party (such as the disgraceful and ridiculous former Richmond MP Jenny Tonge) takes an entirely blinkered and one-sided view of the situation in the middle east in which Israel is the source of all evil and Palestinians can do no wrong.
I’d rather not be reminded of the idignity we suffered having Richmond represented by that party.
Harlow has always swung wildly at general elections. interestingly, through the Jerry Hayes era Labour kept huge majorities on the local council, which only went Tory during the Labour period of national government. Bill Rammell was also popular and well established locally . The Council is now back in Labour hands, and the Libdems have imploded.
The Church Langley ward is safe Tory, but there are other seats which have shifted that way on the council such as Kingsmoor and Old Harlow. Labour still do pretty well here overall and could easily take it back
‘I assume Tim’s objection is based on his role in the Conservative Friends of Israel.’
Spot on Pete
The first time I even became aware of Robert Halfron was when he appeared on a Sunday morning talk show talking in glowing terms about the Gaza massacre of 2008-09
He’s a typical Essex Tory and everything he’s said and done since then has just confirmed my dislike but as you say Joe he is very popular here and does seem like a good constituency MP
“The basic electoral pattern in western countries is a big centre-left party and big centre-right party”.
Yes, and for this reason I would expect Scottish independence to result in a revival of centre right politics there. I see no reason why Scotland should be any different to any other mature democracy in that sense.
The only exceptions to this rule tend to be cases where one side of the political spectrum is discredited by a perceived association with a dictatorial regime that ruled the country previously. For some time after the fall of the Franco and Salazar regimes Spain and Portugal had no viable centre right potential government. The same phenomenon can still be seen in parts of Eastern Europe where parties of the left can be undermined by association with Communism. Poland, for example, lacks a centre left party with any significant level of support, it’s two largest parties both being of the right.
On the contrary re: Spain – there was a centre right government following Franco’s demise and the left didn’t take power until 1982
Church Langley and Old Harlow, along with Churchgate Street village are by far the nicest parts of this seat and help to break up the 1950s/60s concrete estates. As new towns go Harlow is probably a better example and is extremely green.
Not sure I’d class the post Franco governments of Spain per 1982 as centre right. They were minority governments in any case. There wasn’t a proper rightist majority in the Cortes until Aznar won in 2000.
On reflection it was probably more the attempted coup of 1981 rather than the Franco experience that led to the right being seen as beyond the pale for a generation.
‘The centre right party goes by a variety of names around the world – Conservatives, Liberal Democrats. Liberal Nationals, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Unionists, Populars, Progressives and whatever the French Gaullists are calling themselves this decade.’
I find the Social Democrat identity for any centre-right party completely odd – and calling themselves a Labour Party, as in Jamaica, even wierder
I also take the point about the American parties having being turned on their head. The idea of progressive metropolitans voting Republican and backward rural southerners putting their lot in with the Democrats is unimaginable today.
I’d imagine a good deal of Centre Right voters in Scotland, probably a majority, are more likely to vote for the SNP or Lib Dems, than Tory
Alex Salmond’s electoral strength seems to be based on the fact that he’s equally appealing to both Left and Right
Obviously Tim you mean backward rural WHITE Southerners.
Re Robert Halfon, it’s a mistake to locate him on the right JUST because of his attitude to Israel. Sympathy with Israel’s policies is of course not confined to the right of the political spectrum, just as antipathy towards them isn’t confined to the left. And for a Jew of Iraqi origins to be described as a typical Essex Tory seems slightly surprising……
I have a close friend who (believe it or not) defected from being an active Lib Dem member to supporting UKIP since the last election. He comes from Hampstead Garden Suburb & I remember one of his local Conservative (naturally) councillors being called Daniel Halfon. Halfon isn’t a common name, so I presume he is some relation to Robert Halfon, perhaps his father?
“The first time I even became aware of Robert Halfron was when he appeared on a Sunday morning talk show talking in glowing terms about the Gaza massacre of 2008-09″
With imminent war brewing between Israel and Iran, I suspect we will be hearing a lot more from Mr Halfon in the near future.
‘Re Robert Halfon, it’s a mistake to locate him on the right JUST because of his attitude to Israel. ‘
I didn’t actually tealise Halfron was Jewish – although his name is a clear indication. I thought it more likely he was one of those evangelical Christians who buy into ‘the world has to good to Israelis as they are the people of God’ line
To be homest I wouldn’t describe staunch support of Israel as a Right/Left issue – neither here not the US. The Labour Friends of Israel has more members (and promoinent ones too) than the Conservative group
It’s not just his dislike of Palestinians in particular that puts Halfron on the far right of a pretty right wing Tory Parliamentary Party – but his whole political philiosophy
The only progressive measure he supports is the contunued funding of alternative medecine via the NHS
“pretty right wing Tory Parliamentary Party”
I don’t think the parliamentary party are that right wing at all Tim. Over the past decade there has been very little to separate Labour and the Tories and Cameron doesn’t seem to want to pull the party away from that.
I wouldn’t say that Halfon is particularly right wing either, certainly not as right as Rosindell.
Without wanting to encourage renewed debate on the rights and wrongs of it, I think Tim is right to say that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a left-right issue in British or American politics. It transcends the political spectrum.
Personally, I happen to be generally pro-Israeli. But as Tim has rightly said, there are a good many Conservatives who take the oopposite line and a good many Labour people who I would agree with.
“The idea of progressive metropolitans voting Republican and backward rural southerners putting their lot in with the Democrats is unimaginable today.”
Robert Bryd is the classic example of the ‘BNP wing’ of the Democrats and to my mind rather incredibly was the Democrats Senate leader in the 1980s.
One of the last leading metropolitan liberals in the Republicans was this fellow:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_K._Javits
who by the end of his career had the most left wing voting record in the Senate.
Which was led to his defeat in the 1980 New York Republican primary.
The primary sysytem in the US allows the political parties to have broader political bases than those in Britain do and allowed very different individuals to represent the same party, sometimes in the same state.
At that time the ‘vote the way you shot’ tradition was a big factor in elections.
Its unbelievable Robert Byrd was not got rid of. Some things are so serious an apology is not sufficient.
From wiki:
“I shall never fight in the armed forces with a Negro by my side … Rather I should die a thousand times, and see Old Glory trampled in the dirt never to rise again, than to see this beloved land of ours become degraded by race mongrels, a throwback to the blackest specimen from the wilds.”
Lincoln Chafee was probably the last left of centre serious player in the republican party. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Chafee
‘Lincoln Chafee was probably the last left of centre serious player in the republican party. ‘
IS – he’s currently the Republican governor of Rhose Island – a solidly Democrat state
I would say in Byrd’s defence that he did go out of his way in his latter days in the senate to state how wrong he was on the race issue, unlike Republican David Duke
I thought he was an Independent rather than a Republican. I thought Barak Obama got into trouble with his party for going to campaign for him?
Or is that someone else I’m thinking of?
It might have bee New Jersey now I think about it.
He was a republican, now an independant and is backing Obama ’12.
‘He was a republican, now an independant and is backing Obama ’12.’
You’re right on both counts
Chaffe’s political posituons are waaay to the Left if most Democrats so they must have hated him in the Reoublicans
He would no doubt counter that the Republicans that inspired him were the likes of the Lincoln, T Rosevelt and Eisenhower rather than Bush, Rumsfeld and Palin – and my God, he’d have a point
It’s funny how little’s been heard of Pakin since that journalist wrote that (entirely factual as I understand) book about her. Even her dim-witted fans seem to have ‘cooled’ on her a little
I know this contradicts your narrative somewhat Tim, but there are signs that the Republicans are starting to recover in parts of New England.
Connecticut is a very wealthy state where a lot of Wall Street people live, and this particular demographic has swung very strongly against Obama. Partly of course because they see Romney as one of their own. Obama’s lead in Connecticut in the polls is down to the mid/high single figures compared with 20% plus against McCain in 2008.
One of Romney’s problems is that he has improved a lot on McCain’s support in many safe Democratic states but still not by enough to win, whilst Obama retains a narrow advantage in most swing states.
Connecticut’s open senate seat – the Democrat incumbent is retiring – is a tie in the recent polls, with the Republicans having a fair chance of gaining it.
Remember also that the Republicans hold both house seats and one of two senators in New Hampshire. If Romney hadn’t had to pander so much to the south he could easily have picked up the state, but will probably narrowly miss.
One symptom of Obama running a more and more populist, “the many versus the few” campaign is that it will bring the Republicans back into contention long term in the north east, with wealthy voters getting increasingly disillusioned with Obama’s economic policy. The GOP are doing their best to help the Democrats in the region though, with continual obsession with unpopular positions on abortion etc.
“I would say in Byrd’s defence that he did go out of his way in his latter days in the senate to state how wrong he was on the race issue, unlike Republican David Duke”
You make it sound as if they’re comparable people.
Bryd was the Seante Majority leader and was still rambling on about ‘white niggers’ a decade ago while David Duke was basically a nobody who never got elected to anything and was originally a Democrat.
As to Lincoln Chaffee surely the biggest influence on his politcal development was his dad John Chaffee, a leading politician for several decades.
It makes laugh to hear Americans talk about how egalitarian their country is when the best way into its governmetn is being the son / brother / wife of another politician.
“Connecticut’s open senate seat – the Democrat incumbent is retiring – is a tie in the recent polls, with the Republicans having a fair chance of gaining it.”
Unfortunately, the state is still out of play in the Presidential election. But it will be wonderful if Linda McMahon wins the senate seat there. It will be very well deserved and shows what can be done in US politics if you stick at it (even in a safe seat like Connecticut).
If she does win, she would be the first republican senator for the state since George W. Bush’s grandfather, Prescot Bush in 1963.
Connecticut’s open senate seat – the Democrat incumbent is retiring
Joe Lieberman was more of an independent after 2006 than a democrat. A bit weird really to think he was Gore’s running mate in 2000.
‘Joe Lieberman was more of an independent after 2006 than a democrat.’
A Republican-supporting democrat – he backed McCain in 2008 and probably backed Bush in 2004
I always saw him as a DINO anyway and the Democrats are well rid of him
Rather late to point this out, but the Democrats performed very well in Connecticut. 58 to 40. They also took all the Senate and House seats
Presidentially it was a relatively poor result, given that in the same election the Democrats won Republican-leaning states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado by a decisive margin.
Compared with McCain, Romney did much better in New England but he was so far behind it was never going to do him any good.
I suppose that’s not entirely unexpected given he is from Massachusetts – but the republicans were not competitive at all. Its interesting how as our politics has become less ideological, theirs has become more so
Idealogical based more and more on racial and religious identity, rather than on political views.
My wife is a hispanic American catholic who is more right wing than me on many things, especially welfare and social issues. But she is a registered democrat who would never vote Republican in a million years.