Comments on: Hampstead and Kilburn

By: akmd

akmd — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 12:40:44 +0000

The new Hampstead & Kilburn seat becomes much better for Labour with the removal of Belsize, Brondesbury Park and Fortune Green and the addition of Gospel Oak, Highgate and Kentish Town. 2010 Notionals for this seat would have had a Labour majority of over 4,000 and that’s before you factor in the likely switch of LD voters to Labour in places like West Hampstead and Queens Park.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 16:36:47 +0000

There’ll be a scrum from potential Labour candidates for these two seats in Camden.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 14:51:27 +0000

In his old age, Frank Dobson looks just like Uncle Albert from Only Fools & Horses.

By: Andrea

Andrea — Sat, 25 Jun 2011 19:26:38 +0000

I think that next door Frank Dobson also indicated last year to his local paper that he won’t stand again if the government serves a full term. Hardly surprising too

Not as old as Glenda, but he will be 75 in 2015 (and 36 years as MP), so not surprising.

So we can see a total change in Camden MPs

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 25 Jun 2011 17:46:44 +0000

If she does, I hope she’ll keep her clothes on

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sat, 25 Jun 2011 16:58:47 +0000

I gather that Glenda Jackson has let it be known that she won’t be standing again. Although she hasn’t always achieved the strong personal results that some of her colleagues in London have (e.g. Barry Gardiner), she clearly was much needed by Labour in the general election last year, otherwise this seat would clearly have been lost. Given her age it isn’t a big surprise. I wonder if she will return to acting?

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 19:51:37 +0000

Maybe.

Although the main factor is the gradual displacement of one group of mostly white middle class lefties with another group of mostly white bankers.

There will be other London seats where the non white percentage won’t grow by that much – eg Battersea.

You will be surprised how much it will have risen in the leafy Tory outer suburb seats – Beckenham, Bromley, Romford, Croydon South will all show very significant increases from a low base, but which are a harbinger of problems for the Tory vote in years to come.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 17:05:52 +0000

The fact that the Tories did relatively well in this seat at the last election suggests to me that when the census figures are released they’ll show that the non-white population of this constituency has not increased to the same extent as in most of the rest of London.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 16:26:23 +0000

Yes I pretty much agree.

Depending on the boundaries of course, Hampstead looks a good bet for the Tories in a few elections’ time. Gradually the demographics are changing from middle class leftie academics and public sector professionals towards city professionals who are much more friendly to voting Conservative.

The same has been happening in Richmond.

Nevertheless the potential Conservative vote is still too low to be able to win unless the lefties split equally between Lab and LD. In a few elecrtions it may be a different story but in 2015 a lot of the LD vote here will move back to Labour and they will win easily.

Something like Lab 45% Con 35% LD 15%

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 14:50:24 +0000

I’m convinced that the Tories would have gained this seat on the old Hampstead and Highgate boundaries in 2010. As I understand it, the Kilburn area is more Labour (in local elections at least) than was the Highgate ward.

The question for next time is what effect will the desertion of voters from the Lib Dems have? I would think that most of them will be going to Labour in the trendier more ‘liberal elite’ parts of the seat. But there may be a few former Tories ready to come back to the party as well.

I expect a Labour hold with a bigger majority even if Glenda Jackson doesn’t stand again. But I suppose so long as the Tories keep the seat looking close, they could win it back in 2 elections time.