Hampstead and Kilburn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17290 (32.73%)
Labour: 17332 (32.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 16491 (31.22%)
BNP: 328 (0.62%)
UKIP: 408 (0.77%)
Green: 759 (1.44%)
Independent: 91 (0.17%)
Others: 123 (0.23%)
Majority: 42 (0.08%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15659 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14525 (34.1%)
Conservative: 10125 (23.8%)
Other: 2289 (5.4%)
Majority: 1134 (2.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10886 (28.5%)
Labour: 14615 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10293 (27%)
Green: 2013 (5.3%)
UKIP: 275 (0.7%)
Other: 91 (0.2%)
Majority: 3729 (9.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8725 (24.6%)
Labour: 16601 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7273 (20.5%)
UKIP: 316 (0.9%)
Green: 1654 (4.7%)
Other: 838 (2.4%)
Majority: 7876 (22.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11991 (27.2%)
Labour: 25275 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (12.4%)
Referendum: 667 (1.5%)
Other: 617 (1.4%)
Majority: 13284 (30.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes resulting from the reduction in the number of seats allocated to Brent. Hampstead and Kilburn takes in the majority of the old Hampstead and Highgate constituency along with a large proportion of Brent East and part of Queen`s Park, currently in Brent South.
Profile: A cross borough seat, taking in three wards from Sarah Teather`s abolished Brent East seat, won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in in high-profile 2003 by-election (Teather herself follows the rest of her seat into Brent Central) and seven Camden wards.
Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia – although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area.
Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. However, gentrification is having its effect even here and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Current MP: Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Chris Philp (Conservative) born London. Educated at Oxford University. Currently running a business re-developing parts of the former Yugoslavia, he previously founded Clearstone (a haulage training company) and Blueheath (a distribution company that was floated in 2004). Was chosen as Ernst & Young`s “Entrepreneur of the Future” in 2003. Elected as a Camden councillor in 2006, defeating the Labour group leader. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Ed Fordham (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Surrey. Educated at Spalding Grammar School and the University of Nottingham. Previously Liberal Democrat campaigns officer in the South West, currently a senior officer in the LGA. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Stoke on Trent Central 1997. 
Beatrix Campbell (Green) Born 1947. Journalist, author and broadcaster. Awarded the OBE in 2009.
Magnus Nielsen (UKIP)Victoria Moore (BNP)
Tamsin Omond (Tamsin Omond to the Commons) Educated at Cambridge University. Environmental activist, previously involved with the anti-airport expansion group Plane Stupid.Gene Alcantara (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114792
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 40.2%
White: 72.6%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 8%
Mixed: 3.9%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 48.6%
Hindu: 2.8%
Jewish: 8.1%
Muslim: 8.3%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 50.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15%
Owner-Occupied: 43.3%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 10%)
Privately Rented: 27.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.6%
This Telegraph article covers the same ground:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9763112/Chilling-economic-report-strikes-fear-into-CEOs.html
Emily Frith has been chosen as the LibDems
Conservatives select on Wednesday by Open Primary. Finalists Alex Burghart, Seema Kennedy and Simon Marcus For further detail folow pn twitter @camdentories or visit.http://www.hampsteadandkilburn.org/news/residents-set-vote-conservative-parliamentary-candidate-hampstead-kilburn
Glenda Jackson’s retirement could make this seat a stronger Tory target in 2015….Conservative majority of around 1000.
Previously, Hampstead was only gained once before by Labour, in 1966. 5 of the 6 Labour victories in this constituency were all with Glenda Jackson as candidate.
We’ve had this discussion before. I continue to say that Glenda Jackson has had a personal vote, which would almost certainly have saved her in 2010, but for most of her career her electoral performances have hardly set the political world alight. Certainly her personal vote can’t be compared with that of some other Labour MPs in London such as Steve Pound or Barry Gardiner, and probably John McDonnell or even Jeremy Corbyn whose performances have almost always outstripped Labour’s local council performances in their constituencies. Jackson did manage to do that in 2010 but hasn’t managed to attract the votes of those who have voted Tory in local elections, as Pound Gardiner & McDonnell have all managed to do. The effect of her retirement will be mitigated by the national swing from LD to Lab – I think that the LD vote in this area is much more Labour- than Conservative-inclined, and there’s an enormous third-place LD vote there for the squeezing. The Tories COULD win here but would need to be doing almost as well as in 2010, which will not be at all easy for them. Labour are still the favourites at this stage, and I think the Tories have if anything a better chance in the neighbouring seat of Westminster North.
Simon Marcus won Conservative selection
Through an open selection, no less.
Primary. An open primary, no less.
Simon Marcus selected as Conservative Candidate for Britain’s most marginal seat at well attended Open Primary
http://www.hampsteadandkilburn.org/news/simon-marcus-selected-conservative-candidate-britains-most-marginal-seat
The Conservatives seem to have just held the Lib Dems at bay during the 2001/2005 period
and this has been quite crucially important long term in turning this successor seat into a Lab-Con marginal.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Belsize: 54.4% / 43.6%
Fortune Green: 55.2% / 45.4%
Frognal & Fitzjohns: 52.5% / 44.9%
Hampstead Town: 59.5% / 53.7%
Kilburn (Camden): 47.2% / 34.9%
Swiss Cottage: 50.9% / 39.8%
West Hampstead: 54.3% / 44.7%
Brondesbury Park: 42.3% / 33.3%
Kilburn (Brent): 35.3% / 28.3%
Queens Park: 46.6% / 41.0%
TOTAL: 49.3% / 40.3%
White overall, Hampstead & Kilburn:
2001: 72.6%
2011: 65.5%
Queens Park was the only ward to record a numerical increase in the White British population from 5,778 to 6,268. But the drops in all the other wards were small.
Great write up about the Conservative Open Primary in a local independent blog http://www.westhampsteadlife.com/2013/02/simon-marcus-elected-as-ppc-for-0026.html
Census results – Jewish, 2001 / 2011:
{Camden wards}:
Belsize: 11.5% / 9.7%
Fortune Green: 7.9% / 6.6%
Frognal and Fitzjohns: 17.1% / 13.5%
Hampstead Town: 11.7% / 10.5%
Kilburn (Camden): 4.0% / 2.6%
Swiss Cottage: 13.9% / 10.9%
West Hampstead: 6.9% / 5.8%
{Brent wards}:
Brondesbury Park: 6.2% / 4.7%
Kilburn (Brent): 1.2% / 1.4%
Queens Park: 2.0% / 2.6%
TOTAL:
2001: 9,257 / 114,792 = 8.1%
2011: 8,482 / 129,989 = 6.5%
Ham & High front page ‘
Hampstead and Kilburn seat ‘top target’ for Conservatives’ http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/hampstead_and_kilburn_seat_top_target_for_conservatives_1_1932851
Well, yes, it is at the top of their target list and has been since May 2010. The Labour majority of 42 votes is the smallest in Britain.
With the demographic changes in this seat and the small majority in this seat, could Hampstead and Kilburn go down in history as the same way as Aberdeen South in 1992 and Glasgow Cathcart in 1979 as a lone Tory gain from Labour in an election where there is a swing towards Labour nationally.
I was thinking along those lines myself. Is it stretching things to suggest the Tories almost have a better chance of gaining this seat than they do of holding a few others in London such as Enfield North?
I still think Westminster North has more potential for the Tories, though this is not a formality for a Labour hold.
Barnaby
How much of a personal vote do you think Glenda has?
Re Westminster North, much depends on the Conservative candidate selection.
While I would not expect them (or rather Cameron) to chose anyone quite as vile as Joanna Cash its certainly a constituency which some selfobsessed individuals might go for the nomination.
LD candidate stands down after a month http://www.kilburntimes.co.uk/news/liberal_democrat_prospective_parliamentary_candidate_for_hampstead_and_kilburn_resigns_1_1938961
Sounds like a good reason to resign, and being so far before the next election seems very reasonable and unlikely to affect anything.
Sounds like a very honourable reason for the Lib Dem PPC to stand down.
Barnaby, I wouldn’t put too much money of Westminister North going against the national trend. I understand very well the main reason for the Tories failing to gain it in 2010 as the A List candidate, a 2,000 majoirty might be too much for the Tories to overcome if there is a swing against them nationally (which I’m not about 80% sure there will be). A party can’t pin all it’s hopes on gentrification.
I don’t know what Karen Bucks personal vote is like, but I’m guessing she has no intention of standing down (she’ll be 56 at the time of the next election) and she probably has her eye on a seat in the cabinet in the next parliament.
Regarding the Lib Dem candidacy, due to gentrification this is probably one of the very seats where the Lib Dems may benefit from having a pro-coalition rather than an anti-coalition candidate. Unless of course Hampstead and Kilburn takes after neighbouring Islington and is full of Guardian reading liberals, I don’t know the area well enough to be able to know that for certain.
I hope Simon Marcus turns out to be as big a player in the party as the previous Jewish candidate here (well at least in the Hampstead part)
I’m not saying that Labour will lose Westminster North. What I am saying is that the Tories are likely to resist the national swing better there than in almost any other Labour seat, if there is one. I still expect a Labour hold, but Karen Buck knows that she can’t take it for granted. I doubt that she ever has.
Richard – my contention is that Glenda Jackson (who is perhaps surprisingly a Labour MP I have never met, given my past association with Arts for Labour) does have a personal vote, but that it’s fairly modest. Her results in her constituency have rarely, since her gain in 1992 when Oliver Letwin was the defeated Tory candidate, exceeded the national average by very much, and in fact her 2005 result was quite a lot worse than average. Her personal vote however was clearly the difference between victory and defeat in 2010, as is clear if you look at the local elections results the same day. If I were a Tory, I wouldn’t get too excited about the loss of her personal vote – it will restrict the national swing a little, but not that much, and bearing in mind that the LD vote seems to be rather left of centre (all the wards which are entirely LD-held were won by Labour in the GLA list vote), I still think Labour will win again unless the Tories retain a very clear lead in the national vote over that party, probably in the order of at least 6%. So yes, she does fit the constituency pretty well, and yes she does have a personal vote, but it isn’t anything like as large as that of Barry Gardiner or Steve Pound, or for that matter probably Jeremy Corbyn or John McDonnell either.
Ham & High editorial sums up the HandK situation http://www.hampsteadandkilburn.org/news/ham-high-editorial-when-glenda-goes-seat-goes
Strange paragraph in that article:
“By selecting their H&K candidate early, the Conservatives have stolen a march on their rivals. This time around, the Lib Dems won’t really be in the picture, and there seems to be an air of resignation among many Labour supporters I’ve spoken to: “When Glenda goes, the seat goes,” was the refreshingly concise but ruefully pessimistic view of one who was involved in the last election battle.”
It seems to ignore developments since May 2010.