Hampstead and Kilburn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17290 (32.73%)
Labour: 17332 (32.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 16491 (31.22%)
BNP: 328 (0.62%)
UKIP: 408 (0.77%)
Green: 759 (1.44%)
Independent: 91 (0.17%)
Others: 123 (0.23%)
Majority: 42 (0.08%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15659 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14525 (34.1%)
Conservative: 10125 (23.8%)
Other: 2289 (5.4%)
Majority: 1134 (2.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10886 (28.5%)
Labour: 14615 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10293 (27%)
Green: 2013 (5.3%)
UKIP: 275 (0.7%)
Other: 91 (0.2%)
Majority: 3729 (9.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8725 (24.6%)
Labour: 16601 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7273 (20.5%)
UKIP: 316 (0.9%)
Green: 1654 (4.7%)
Other: 838 (2.4%)
Majority: 7876 (22.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11991 (27.2%)
Labour: 25275 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (12.4%)
Referendum: 667 (1.5%)
Other: 617 (1.4%)
Majority: 13284 (30.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes resulting from the reduction in the number of seats allocated to Brent. Hampstead and Kilburn takes in the majority of the old Hampstead and Highgate constituency along with a large proportion of Brent East and part of Queen`s Park, currently in Brent South.
Profile: A cross borough seat, taking in three wards from Sarah Teather`s abolished Brent East seat, won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in in high-profile 2003 by-election (Teather herself follows the rest of her seat into Brent Central) and seven Camden wards.
Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia – although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area.
Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. However, gentrification is having its effect even here and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Current MP: Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Chris Philp (Conservative) born London. Educated at Oxford University. Currently running a business re-developing parts of the former Yugoslavia, he previously founded Clearstone (a haulage training company) and Blueheath (a distribution company that was floated in 2004). Was chosen as Ernst & Young`s “Entrepreneur of the Future” in 2003. Elected as a Camden councillor in 2006, defeating the Labour group leader. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Ed Fordham (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Surrey. Educated at Spalding Grammar School and the University of Nottingham. Previously Liberal Democrat campaigns officer in the South West, currently a senior officer in the LGA. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Stoke on Trent Central 1997. 
Beatrix Campbell (Green) Born 1947. Journalist, author and broadcaster. Awarded the OBE in 2009.
Magnus Nielsen (UKIP)Victoria Moore (BNP)
Tamsin Omond (Tamsin Omond to the Commons) Educated at Cambridge University. Environmental activist, previously involved with the anti-airport expansion group Plane Stupid.Gene Alcantara (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114792
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 40.2%
White: 72.6%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 8%
Mixed: 3.9%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 48.6%
Hindu: 2.8%
Jewish: 8.1%
Muslim: 8.3%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 50.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15%
Owner-Occupied: 43.3%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 10%)
Privately Rented: 27.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.6%
The Tories have a stubborn vote in the nicer parts of this seat which is so wealthy that it has proved quite unsqueezable by the Lib Dems even during the worst years for the Tories, in contrast to neighbouring Hornsey.
Despite some gentrification there is still a lot of grot in this constituency, certainly on the Kilburn side and in parts of Hampstead as well. And also a large pool of middle class lefties who work in the public sector and form the basis of the Lib Dem vote here and are generally very anti-Tory. This group is gradually being squeezed out by house prices in the area and the rich Tory part of the electorate is expanding somewhat, but still if the middle class leftie and the poorer parts of the electorate both largely plump for Labour they will comfortably get 50% of the vote here.
So you basically think that there is and will continue to be an anti-Tory majority in this seat. I am not so sure.
Labour vote is down about 25% since 1997, (with the 2010 boundary changes only having a minor effect on the Labour share).
Surprised to find Hampstead described as an area with a lot of grot and “being gentrified”. It’s always been a very expensive and desirable area of London and despite a reputation as a home for left-wing intellectuals, they were in fact a minority and it was always Tory until 1992, apart from 66-70.
I agree most of the LD vote is quite likely Labour sympathetic,
but with a Tory increase this big in 2010, they must have credibility here to challenge strongly.
But a Labour recovery or Glenda Jackson continuing could of course mean this is the closest the Tories come for a long time.
Interesting that the two environmental campaigning women PPCs did SO badly here. The Greens polled 5% in both 2001 and 205 here but only 1% this time with a high profile PPC. Although obviously the 3 main parties’ votes all rose in such a close contest.
The Tories would probably find it difficult to win this seat under AV for the reasons given by various people above.
The FPTP camp has been put 11 points in the lead according to YouGov (see this website’s main page).
Assume that the reason why the boundary changes were only marginally benefitial to Labours notional lead over the Conservatives was because the area called ‘Highgate’ was as Labour as Kilburn.
I understand that the posh Highgate is actually part of Hornsey & Wood Green.
It has also always struck me that Kilburn (Brent) and West Hampstead (Camden) are very similar in character, straddling Kilburn High Street.
I assume that if the Brent wards were swapped for the St John’s Wood Westminster wards that a ‘Hampstead & St Johns Wood’ would be a Conservative constituency.
According to the Highgate Society Highgate straddles three different constituencies – Islington North (Junction Ward) Hornsey and Wood Green (Highgate Ward Haringey) and Holborn and St Pancras (Highgate Ward Camden) I think a bit is also in Finchley & Golders Green.
That’s probably right. St John’s Wood is one of the most Tory bits of the Westminster North constituency.
Some of Highgate in Camden is posh too, like Lord Menuhin’s late residence, but the point isn’t a bad one. Labour are still 3rd in Highgate ward, Haringey.
Yes what Barnaby said – there are some extremely wealthy and pleasant parts of Highgate village in the Camden ward. the high street is the boundary and some of the roads to the south of it, backing onto Kenwood are amongst the best in the area. The problem is that the ward also includes Dartmouth Park which is far from salubrious and there is no equivalent area to that in the Haringey Highgate ward.
What were the wards of the old Hampstead and Highgate seat from 1983 to 1997?
Adelaide; Belsize; Fitzjohns; Fortune Green; Frognal; Hampstead Town; Highgate; Kilburn; Priory; South End; Swiss Cottage; West End
Tories have selected Cllr Sachin Rajput (Barnet) as their candidate for GLA Brent & Harrow constituency.
I haven’t posted for a while (having a living to earn) but this is one of the few urban seats where the demographics are trending to the Conservatives. This is because of the enormous house prices which means the area bears little relation to the one where I lived in the 1970s,
I would bet a sizable sum that whatever the constellation of political forces at the next general election, the Conservatives will do better than average in this seat. the Liberals are a busted flush here. And yes of course Glenda won’t stand again.
This is one of the more difficult seats to predict as far as the next GE. Boundary changes that remove the Brent wards would certainly help the Tories but they have one major problem. All of their best wards in Camden are already in the constituency and there isn’t really anywhere else in the borough that is particularly favourable to them.
I think what happens to the Lib Dem vote will determine the result here next time. As most of seems to be Labour inclined, I imagine Labour will hold the seat even without Glenda Jackson.
The DEMOCRATIC AUDIT BOUNDARY CHANGE SIMULATION has projected that Kilburn my be removed from this constituency and St Johns Wood / Regents Park added.
They add that ‘Hampstead & St Johns Wood’ would be a Conservative marginal.
I suspect that this constituency can only be won by the Conservatives if their opposition is split equally between Labour and LibDems.
Which nearly happened last year but not quite.
The same thing applies to Poplar.
I’m convinced that the Tories would have gained this seat on the old Hampstead and Highgate boundaries in 2010. As I understand it, the Kilburn area is more Labour (in local elections at least) than was the Highgate ward.
The question for next time is what effect will the desertion of voters from the Lib Dems have? I would think that most of them will be going to Labour in the trendier more ‘liberal elite’ parts of the seat. But there may be a few former Tories ready to come back to the party as well.
I expect a Labour hold with a bigger majority even if Glenda Jackson doesn’t stand again. But I suppose so long as the Tories keep the seat looking close, they could win it back in 2 elections time.
Yes I pretty much agree.
Depending on the boundaries of course, Hampstead looks a good bet for the Tories in a few elections’ time. Gradually the demographics are changing from middle class leftie academics and public sector professionals towards city professionals who are much more friendly to voting Conservative.
The same has been happening in Richmond.
Nevertheless the potential Conservative vote is still too low to be able to win unless the lefties split equally between Lab and LD. In a few elecrtions it may be a different story but in 2015 a lot of the LD vote here will move back to Labour and they will win easily.
Something like Lab 45% Con 35% LD 15%
The fact that the Tories did relatively well in this seat at the last election suggests to me that when the census figures are released they’ll show that the non-white population of this constituency has not increased to the same extent as in most of the rest of London.
Maybe.
Although the main factor is the gradual displacement of one group of mostly white middle class lefties with another group of mostly white bankers.
There will be other London seats where the non white percentage won’t grow by that much – eg Battersea.
You will be surprised how much it will have risen in the leafy Tory outer suburb seats – Beckenham, Bromley, Romford, Croydon South will all show very significant increases from a low base, but which are a harbinger of problems for the Tory vote in years to come.
I gather that Glenda Jackson has let it be known that she won’t be standing again. Although she hasn’t always achieved the strong personal results that some of her colleagues in London have (e.g. Barry Gardiner), she clearly was much needed by Labour in the general election last year, otherwise this seat would clearly have been lost. Given her age it isn’t a big surprise. I wonder if she will return to acting?
If she does, I hope she’ll keep her clothes on
I think that next door Frank Dobson also indicated last year to his local paper that he won’t stand again if the government serves a full term. Hardly surprising too
Not as old as Glenda, but he will be 75 in 2015 (and 36 years as MP), so not surprising.
So we can see a total change in Camden MPs
In his old age, Frank Dobson looks just like Uncle Albert from Only Fools & Horses.
There’ll be a scrum from potential Labour candidates for these two seats in Camden.
The new Hampstead & Kilburn seat becomes much better for Labour with the removal of Belsize, Brondesbury Park and Fortune Green and the addition of Gospel Oak, Highgate and Kentish Town. 2010 Notionals for this seat would have had a Labour majority of over 4,000 and that’s before you factor in the likely switch of LD voters to Labour in places like West Hampstead and Queens Park.