Hampstead and Kilburn
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15659 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14525 (34.1%)
Conservative: 10125 (23.8%)
Other: 2289 (5.4%)
Majority: 1134 (2.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10886 (28.5%)
Labour: 14615 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10293 (27%)
Green: 2013 (5.3%)
UKIP: 275 (0.7%)
Other: 91 (0.2%)
Majority: 3729 (9.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8725 (24.6%)
Labour: 16601 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7273 (20.5%)
UKIP: 316 (0.9%)
Green: 1654 (4.7%)
Other: 838 (2.4%)
Majority: 7876 (22.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11991 (27.2%)
Labour: 25275 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (12.4%)
Referendum: 667 (1.5%)
Other: 617 (1.4%)
Majority: 13284 (30.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes resulting from the reduction in the number of seats allocated to Brent. Hampstead and Kilburn takes in the majority of the old Hampstead and Highgate constituency along with a large proportion of Brent East and part of Queen`s Park, currently in Brent South.
Profile: A cross borough seat, taking in three wards from Sarah Teather`s abolished Brent East seat, won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in in high-profile 2003 by-election (Teather herself follows the rest of her seat into Brent Central) and seven Camden wards.
Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia - although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area.
Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. However, gentrification is having its effect even here and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Current MP: Glenda Jackson (Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair. (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Ed Fordham (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Suurey. Educated at Spalding Grammar School and the University of Nottingham. Previously Liberal Democrat campaigns officer in the South West, currently a senior officer in the LGA. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Stoke on Trent Central 1997.
Chris Philip (Conservative) born London. Educated at Oxford. Managing Director of Clearstone, a haulage training company he founded with Sam Gyimah. In previously founded Blueheath, a distribution company that was floated in 2004. Was chosen as Ernst & Young`s “Entrepreneur of the Future” in 2003. Elected as a Camden councillor in 2006, defeating the Labour group leader. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114792
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 40.2%
White: 72.6%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 8%
Mixed: 3.9%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 48.6%
Hindu: 2.8%
Jewish: 8.1%
Muslim: 8.3%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 50.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15%
Owner-Occupied: 43.3%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 10%)
Privately Rented: 27.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.6%
175 Responses
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Ruislip Northwood
No it isnt absurd at all, but I agree that a Labour hgold is most likely with the Conservatives in a strong second - probably something like the shares above on the list vote for Conservative and Labour but with a somehat higher LD vote
May 15th, 2008 at 8:49 pmI agree the Tories have a chance here, given their historic strength and the softness of the Lib Dem vote.
I think David Abrahams is being rather overoptimistic.
No one can know what the result would have been on these boundaries in 2005, but in H&H Ed Fordham came thirs, and the Brent East vote depends on Teather being the candidate. Her going for Brent Central really detracts from the Lib Dem chances in HK.
The softness of the Lib Dem vote is shown by the way it has fallen back from the 2004 high in both Camden and Brent (Alright David, Lib Dems don’t do well in the GLA, but you are now doing worse than in 2004). I found Brondebury especially startling, with the Lib Dems third in an area they won handsomely in 2006.
I would also predict a narrow Labour win.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:21 amRuislip Northwood
Yes it was interesting to see the Conservatives back ahead in Brondesbury (on the list vote). The ‘Lib Dems don’t do well in the GLA’ line doesn’t wash so well when one looks at the results in Haringey where the LD vote did indeed hold up very well suggesting continued strength for them in the western part of that borough. In Brent in stark contrast, their vote collapsed.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:45 amKeighley
Here is my prediction for this seat:-
Con = 11738 (31.32%)
Lab = 11294 (30.14%)
LibDem = 9173 (24.48%)
Green = 5262 (14.04%)
Total votes cast = 37467
Con Maj = 444 (1.18%)
June 9th, 2008 at 5:17 pmRuislip Northwood
I think the Green vote would not go so high as that here - they will likely see themselves squeezed by both Labour and the LDs. It is only in the cirumstances of such a diviosn of the left of centre majority that the Tories could come through and win here. It is not wholly implausible but my best guess would be that Labour will hold on
June 9th, 2008 at 5:38 pmLewisham Deptford
I agree. When it comes down to it, the Greens have a stronger platform in Holborn and St. Pancras, and more opportunities for growth there. They won’t have resources to fight both seats, and are very unlikely to do more without saving their deposit.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:12 pmLewisham Deptford
…are very unlikely to do more than save their deposit, rather.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:13 pmKeighley
I agree with Tangent that the best bet for the Greens is in Holborn & St Pancras.If Sian Berry decides to stand again, maybe the Green vote could increase. The Greens actually gained a seat from the Tories last month in Highgate so they are quite popular in Camden.
June 9th, 2008 at 8:19 pmJust wondering was this seat better for Labour before the boundary changes? Was it not Lab that suggested the Brent/Camden twinning.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:34 pmYes. The boundaries were suggested by Labour.
The Brent part is undergoing rapid gentrification, aside from South Kilburn which is fairly monolithic Council housing.
Also, the Boundary Review predated the Brent East by election in 2003. This seems to have created a lot of “Teather Liberals”. I suspect that these Liberals will go back to their previous allegiance now that Teather is standing elsewhere.
A further opportunity for the Tories is that they have suffered from a very effective Lib Dem squeeze operation. The GLA result should help them reverse that.
On balance though, I think Glenda Jackson will still win.
June 16th, 2008 at 1:45 pmPages: « 1 … 8 9 10 11 [12] Show All