Hampstead and Kilburn
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15659 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14525 (34.1%)
Conservative: 10125 (23.8%)
Other: 2289 (5.4%)
Majority: 1134 (2.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10886 (28.5%)
Labour: 14615 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10293 (27%)
Green: 2013 (5.3%)
UKIP: 275 (0.7%)
Other: 91 (0.2%)
Majority: 3729 (9.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8725 (24.6%)
Labour: 16601 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7273 (20.5%)
UKIP: 316 (0.9%)
Green: 1654 (4.7%)
Other: 838 (2.4%)
Majority: 7876 (22.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11991 (27.2%)
Labour: 25275 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (12.4%)
Referendum: 667 (1.5%)
Other: 617 (1.4%)
Majority: 13284 (30.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes resulting from the reduction in the number of seats allocated to Brent. Hampstead and Kilburn takes in the majority of the old Hampstead and Highgate constituency along with a large proportion of Brent East and part of Queen`s Park, currently in Brent South.
Profile: A cross borough seat, taking in three wards from Sarah Teather`s abolished Brent East seat, won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in in high-profile 2003 by-election (Teather herself follows the rest of her seat into Brent Central) and seven Camden wards.
Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia - although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area.
Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. However, gentrification is having its effect even here and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Current MP: Glenda Jackson (Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Ed Fordham (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Surrey. Educated at Spalding Grammar School and the University of Nottingham. Previously Liberal Democrat campaigns officer in the South West, currently a senior officer in the LGA. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Stoke on Trent Central 1997. 
Chris Philip (Conservative) born London. Educated at Oxford. Managing Director of Clearstone, a haulage training company he founded with Sam Gyimah. In previously founded Blueheath, a distribution company that was floated in 2004. Was chosen as Ernst & Young`s “Entrepreneur of the Future” in 2003. Elected as a Camden councillor in 2006, defeating the Labour group leader. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.
Tim Wilmott (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114792
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 40.2%
White: 72.6%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 8%
Mixed: 3.9%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 48.6%
Hindu: 2.8%
Jewish: 8.1%
Muslim: 8.3%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 50.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15%
Owner-Occupied: 43.3%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 10%)
Privately Rented: 27.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.6%
The problem with any projection for the GE is that Camden is split between 2 very different seats - and a big chunk of H&K is in Brent. In 2004 we had data at ward level, but not this time.
Given the results in London as a whole I reckon this is an impressive result for the LDs, against the background of much media criticism of the LD led Council. The Green progress is in line with the London figures, though at a higher level.
While I accept Andy’s argument on the H&StP thread about ethnic minorities I am not convinced as iit appears that the Bangladeshi community - the largest and most politically active - is now split between Lab and LD though they’re concentrated in H&StP.
H&StP is effectively a straight fight but with large votes for Con and Green. If the LDs can persuade them to vote tactically then the result will be very close.
H&K is much more complex - obviously Lab are not so much out of it as I expected, though I still expect to win my bet they’ll come 3rd at the GE.
Also see Brent result:
http://www.brent.gov.uk/home.nsf/news/LBB-863
Obviously we’ll never know but it seems likely then that Labour notionally finished 3rd in H and K. I’d have thought the Lib Dems would have just won it but that is a matter for speculation.
I’ve put the Brent results on the Brent Central page.