Hampstead and Kilburn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17290 (32.73%)
Labour: 17332 (32.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 16491 (31.22%)
BNP: 328 (0.62%)
UKIP: 408 (0.77%)
Green: 759 (1.44%)
Independent: 91 (0.17%)
Others: 123 (0.23%)
Majority: 42 (0.08%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15659 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14525 (34.1%)
Conservative: 10125 (23.8%)
Other: 2289 (5.4%)
Majority: 1134 (2.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10886 (28.5%)
Labour: 14615 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10293 (27%)
Green: 2013 (5.3%)
UKIP: 275 (0.7%)
Other: 91 (0.2%)
Majority: 3729 (9.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8725 (24.6%)
Labour: 16601 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7273 (20.5%)
UKIP: 316 (0.9%)
Green: 1654 (4.7%)
Other: 838 (2.4%)
Majority: 7876 (22.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11991 (27.2%)
Labour: 25275 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (12.4%)
Referendum: 667 (1.5%)
Other: 617 (1.4%)
Majority: 13284 (30.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes resulting from the reduction in the number of seats allocated to Brent. Hampstead and Kilburn takes in the majority of the old Hampstead and Highgate constituency along with a large proportion of Brent East and part of Queen`s Park, currently in Brent South.
Profile: A cross borough seat, taking in three wards from Sarah Teather`s abolished Brent East seat, won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in in high-profile 2003 by-election (Teather herself follows the rest of her seat into Brent Central) and seven Camden wards.
Hampstead itself is stereotypically, but not entirely inaccurately, portrayed as the home of the chattering classes and the liberal intelligensia – although the extreme house prices mean it is increasingly the home to city financiers, celebrities and business entrepreneurs. The desirable location, Hampstead Heath and direct transport links into central London and to Canary Wharf mean the rest of the seat is rapidly gentrifying and house prices rocketing as young professionals move into the area.
Kilburn is a more socially deprived area with a large proportion of social housing and large Irish and Caribbean communities. However, gentrification is having its effect even here and the large South Kilburn council estate is in the process of being redeveloped.
Current MP: Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Chris Philp (Conservative) born London. Educated at Oxford University. Currently running a business re-developing parts of the former Yugoslavia, he previously founded Clearstone (a haulage training company) and Blueheath (a distribution company that was floated in 2004). Was chosen as Ernst & Young`s “Entrepreneur of the Future” in 2003. Elected as a Camden councillor in 2006, defeating the Labour group leader. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.Glenda Jackson(Labour) born 1936, Birkenhead. Educated at RADA, Glenda Jackson is an acclaimed actress who won two Best Actress oscars, for Women in Love in 1970 and A Touch of Class in 1973. She received the CBE in 1978. She retired from acting to enter politics, and was first elected as MP for Hampstead & Highgate in 1992. She served as a junior minister under Tony Blair, but stepped down to contest the nomination for Labour candidate for London mayor. She is identifed as a figure on the left of the party and has openly criticised the conduct of Tony Blair (more information at They work for you)
Ed Fordham (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Surrey. Educated at Spalding Grammar School and the University of Nottingham. Previously Liberal Democrat campaigns officer in the South West, currently a senior officer in the LGA. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005, Stoke on Trent Central 1997. 
Beatrix Campbell (Green) Born 1947. Journalist, author and broadcaster. Awarded the OBE in 2009.
Magnus Nielsen (UKIP)Victoria Moore (BNP)
Tamsin Omond (Tamsin Omond to the Commons) Educated at Cambridge University. Environmental activist, previously involved with the anti-airport expansion group Plane Stupid.Gene Alcantara (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114792
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 40.2%
White: 72.6%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 8%
Mixed: 3.9%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 48.6%
Hindu: 2.8%
Jewish: 8.1%
Muslim: 8.3%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 50.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15%
Owner-Occupied: 43.3%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 10%)
Privately Rented: 27.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.6%
Conservative vote is up 10.2% points since 1997,
as far as I can tell
from the boundary changes.
Given it was I think almost identical when lost in 1992 compared to 1983,
the share is probably just 2 or 3 % below that period.
This is actually a well above average London performance for them.
although perhaps the by-election in Brent E in 2003 and it’s after effects is distorting things more than I’m allowing for.
” CAMDEN JOHN
Matt
I reckon your close to the LD majority – in range 5000 to 8000 – but it will be over Tory rather than Lab. Glenda will be a poor third
May 5th, 2010 at 3:00 pm ”
It really is a bit out of order that these LDs who predicted this kind of rubbish from the 1st debate onwards
never had the courtesy to come back on these threads and explain why they were wrong or what they thought did happen.
Whereas plenty of Tories and Labour people have frankly discussed quite a list of seats where we did badly.
Can’t take it.
The ‘03 by-election changed things massively. Brent East went from safe Labour with Tories 2nd place to a Lib Dem seat with a Lib Dem-led council. The trouble is that it was always a Teather vote, not an easily-transferable Lib Dem vote – she worked really hard to support councillors on her patch.
Ed Fordham did really well but the notionals showed a Sarah Teather personal vote as a Lib Dem vote which it wasn’t automatically. That, combined with a Tory surge and Glenda’s personal vote from people you wouldn’t expect to vote Labour kept him in third place – but only just.
One thing I think is worth noting all over London. There’s a Zone 2-3 “doughnut” of working class, multicultural areas which are outside the rich Tory inner boroughs and not as far out as the truly suburban boroughs where people have, over the last few years, been persuaded to vote Lib Dem at council level and that has given strong performances in councils like Brent, Islington, Camden, Southwark etc. People there have been willing to vote Lib Dem locally or in by-elections because they were fed up with Labour.
Incidentally, my experience from canvassing was that the lower the social class of the voter in these boroughs, the more likely they were to be voting Lib Dem. The middle-classes were sticking with Labour. The really comfortable were Greens.
Come a general election, it turned out that not enough had been done to harden up this Lib/Lab working class vote and we saw lots of councillors lose unexpectedly through down-the-ticket voting on May 6th because they weren’t prepared to forego voting Labour at the risk of getting a Tory elected.
don’t tar all lib dems with the same brush joe james – we didn’t all think that nick clegg’s performances in the debates automatically meant we’d be taking seats left, right & centre
i always thought it would be a very tough ask fending off the challenge from a resurgent and financially enriched tory party in the south of england, although i was as surprised by some of the seats we lost – winchester, oxford west & abingdon, newton abbott, cambourne & redruth – as i was with those we held on to – cheltenham, somerton & frome, taunton, torbay
i think incumbancy played a significant part but apart from that i’m lost in trying to explain our pattern of results at the general election because there doesn’t seem to be one and one wonders how different things might have been had clegg not had his ‘five minutes of fame’ after his very strong performance in the first debate
as for this seat i have to admit i thought it looked like a lib dem gain, but i think perhaps both the tories and lib dems were understimating glenda jackson’s popularity as a constituency mp, despite the not insignificant boundary change
Amongst some mixed results, there was a strikingly good Conservative performance yesterday in the Frognal & Fitzjohns by-election – a ward which, had it existed, would have probably voted Labour in the 90s.
It was a seat they already held though, although they did increase their vote share at the expense of both Labour and the Libs
Con – 62.6% + 10.6
LIB – 19.4% -3.4%
LAB – 13.9% – 4.2%
GRN – 4.2% -2.9%
It was a good performance but I find Barnaby’s assertion strange. The ward didnt exist in the 90s but Frognal did and was always the safest Tory ward in Camden and Fitzjohn existed and that was never very close in the 90s either. The new ward is not just a straightforward merger but I find it hard to believe that it would have come close to electing Labour councillors in 1994 or 1998. Unless he means that it may have voted Labour in the 1997 general election but even that is somewhat doubtful IMO
“i think incumbancy played a significant part ”
That won’t do.
Sitting LD MPs were defeated aswell,
and I doubt the incumbency loss in Winchester was negative to the LDs.
This site was packed with ridiculous LD predictions from mid April – it suddenly went quiet.
Yet those of us in other parties have tried to get to the bottom of seats where we did badly.
I find it hard to imagine that ward ever being Labour. It’s the richest ward in Camden and probably one of the richest in all of inner London.
Frognal & Fitzjohns, 2001 census:
White, other (not British or Irish): 25.7%
The current Frognal and Fitzjohns ward consists of almost all of the old ward of Frognal, together with most of the old ward of Fitzjohns, and a small part of the old ward of Belsize. Only Belsize ever returned Labour councillors, and then only one out of three in 1994 and 1998.
Well beg your pardon. I thought Labour had won councillor(s) in Frognal in the 1990s but clearly my memory is playing tricks.
I had an extremely weird dream in which I had a pint with Pete Whitehead. Clearly I am spending too much time on this site.
I was surprised how poorly the LibDems performed not just here but across Camden and even more surprised to see Labour gaining control of the council.