Hammersmith
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17261 (36.38%)
Labour: 20810 (43.85%)
Liberal Democrat: 7567 (15.95%)
BNP: 432 (0.91%)
UKIP: 551 (1.16%)
Green: 696 (1.47%)
Independent: 135 (0.28%)
Majority: 3549 (7.47%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18662 (44.6%)
Conservative: 13015 (31.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8044 (19.2%)
Other: 2127 (5.1%)
Majority: 5646 (13.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22407 (45.4%)
Labour: 17378 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7116 (14.4%)
Green: 1933 (3.9%)
UKIP: 493 (1%)
Majority: 5029 (10.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17786 (39.8%)
Labour: 19801 (44.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5294 (11.8%)
UKIP: 375 (0.8%)
Green: 1444 (3.2%)
Majority: 2015 (4.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21420 (39.6%)
Labour: 25262 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4728 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1023 (1.9%)
Other: 1593 (2.9%)
Majority: 3842 (7.1%)
Boundary changes: Major. The borough of Hammersmith and Fulham is paired with Kensington, rather than Ealing. This means the creation of a new Chelsea and Fulham seat, taking half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham. and the addition of the areas of Hammersmith and Fulham that had previously been in the Ealing Acton and Shepherds Bush seat.
Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, the western part of Earl`s Court (the exhibition centre itself straddles the border between this and Westminster North), West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the BBC Television Centre.
The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative – it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. However, there are major boundary changes with the Fulham half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham pairing forming part of the new Chelsea and Fulham seat (and taking with it the current Conservative MP Greg Hands) and the seat gaining the the north part of Hammersmith and Fulham from the old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush seat (and bringing with it Labour MP and former Hammersmith and Fulham council leader Andy Slaughter). The northern part of this seat is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The norther part of the seat also includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital and the Linford Christie Stadium.
Current MP: Andrew Slaughter (Labour) born 1960, London. Barrister specialising in criminal law. Former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Contested Uxbridge by-election in 1997, First elected in 2005. Currently the MP for Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush.
Shaun Bailey (Conservative) born in North Kensington into a black working class family. Educated at Henry Compton School and South Bank University. Director of MyGeneration, a youth charity, and a research fellow for the CPS.Andrew Slaughter (Labour) born 1960, London. Barrister specialising in criminal law. Former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Contested Uxbridge by-election in 1997, First elected in 2005. Currently the MP for Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush.
Merlene Emerson (Liberal Democrat) born Singapore. Educated at Kings College. Former corporate lawyer. Contested West Central in 2008 GLA elections.
Rollo Miles (Green) Born 1974, London. Educated at Chelsea school of Art. Works in property.
Vanessa Chrichton (UKIP)
Lawrence Searle (BNP)Stephen Brennan (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107934
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 18.6%
Over 60: 14%
Born outside UK: 35%
White: 74.3%
Black: 13.4%
Asian: 5.1%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.1%
Christian: 60.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Jewish: 0.7%
Muslim: 8.2%
Full time students: 7.4%
Graduates 16-74: 43.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19%
Owner-Occupied: 41.1%
Social Housing: 35.6% (Council: 20.3%, Housing Ass.: 15.4%)
Privately Rented: 19.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.9%
I think only Barking, Hillingdon and Kingston are unrepresnted in that list. Interesting that there are as many Tory ex-councillors from Lambeth and Haringey sitting in the Commons as there are current Tory counillors sitting in the combined council chambers of those boroughs
I remember Edward Leigh being the Tory GLC member for (lol) Richmond-upon-Thames, Richmond, but I have no recollection of him being on the Borough Council. Perhaps he was though.
Barnaby, he was a councillor between 1974 and 1978 (according to the Commons website)
When the new London boroughs were created in 1965 -
17 adopted the name of a current borough over the rest.
9 adopted a new name / not one of the constituenct former boroughs.
2 remained unchanged with no name change.
Only one (Kensington & Chelsea) adopted both constituent borough names, though Hammersmith became Hammersmith & Fulham in 1978.
The Fulham identity was perhaps strongest because Chelsea next door had not been lost in Kensington. Was there any attempt in a London borough to re-name the borough in the late 70′s to reflect historical?
New Name (not taken from any borough)
Brent
Camden
Haringey
Havering
Hillingdon
Hounslow
Redbridge
Tower Hamlets
Waltham Forest
One Old Borough Name (others ignored)
Barnet
Bromley
City of Westminster
Croydon
Ealing
Enfield
Greenwich
Hackney
Hammersmith (renamed H & F in 1978)
Kingston Upon Thames
Islington
Lewisham
* Merton (Merton & Mordon)
Richmond Upon Thames
Southwark
Sutton
Wandsworth
Combined Borough Named
Kensington & Chelsea
Borough Boundaries Unchanges
City of London
Harrow
Barking & Dagenham ?
Newham is also missing
Unless I’m very much mistaken, North End ward in this constituency is the only ward in London with an elected Labour councillor which voted Conservative on the GLA list vote. This doesn’t bode at all well for Labour’s chances of winning the ward in the future, even if the Gibbs Green estate is spared. The Tories have made some of their natural voters in Ravenscourt Park ward very cross with their policies & actions re the skyline, as well as in Hammersmith Broadway which is Labour-held, but if Labour can’t win either Fulham Reach or North end, let alone Addison or Ravenscourt Park, a Tory retention of power in this borough seems inevitable. Obviously I hope otherwise.
But would that necessarily be a surprise Barnaby?
It seems to me that the North End ward was based mainly on the pre 2002 Gibbs Green.
So the ward voted Labour at every election between 1971 and 2006. Then in 2006 it went Conservative and then in 2010 on the same day as the general election it voted for two Conservatives and only one Labour.
Seems like a ward that is longterm swinging to the Conservatives. Labour may well hold their seat there next time due to the opposition boost that they will receive. They may even win one or both the other Tory seats.
But longterm, the odds seem to be against Labour winning the ward.
Well clearly there is a long-term swing. I think it contains as much of the old Normand ward, but that too was safe Labour. There are hundreds of wards in London with at one elected Labour councillor, but this one sticks out like a sore thumb. There are quite a large number of wards won by the Tories in 2010 which did vote Labour this year, some by quite a large margin, so this result was distinctive.
I think Labour will just have to accept that H&F has gone, and the Conservatives will proabably have to accept the same about somewhere like Redbridge.
I wouldn’t write off the whole borough for Labour just yet. Its still possible Labour could regain it in 2014 (a year before the general election don’t forget) if the Conservatives nationally are very unpopular.
But it won’t be anything to do with the local situation, which seems to have naturally swung to the Tories here now.
If the Tories can develop a Wandsworth like reputation here-as they appear to be doing-they may be able to hold on though. And if they hold on in 2014, they will probably hold it for a couple of decades.
There’s no chance of the Tories losing H&F now.
The gentrification has not brought in large numbers of swing voters. It has brought in large numbers of wealthy core Tory voters in the south and centre of the borough, who would be no more likely to vote Labour than the average resident of neighbouring Chelsea.
Labour retains a large core vote but it is marooned in the several northern wards around Shepherds Bush and North Hammersmith….which themselves may also gentrify over time.
There are already creeping signs of it even in parts of Wormholt & White City, amazing though that seems given the very large Labour majority, though it’s in the Wormholt part of the ward only (i.e. owner-occupied houses & converted flats near the Uxbridge Road). It’s certainly to be seen in Shepherds Bush Green ward, and Askew already has some upmarket streets. Parts of Hammersmith Broadway are not so much up-and-coming as up-and-very-much-come. Only College Park & Old Oak seems entirely immune from any gentrification. I wouldn’t totally rule out the Tories losing the Council in every circumstance, but it would probably take a national Labour lead of 20%ish for it to happen now, and that’s before any further gentrification takes place. The boundary change if it does occur might be a blessing in disguise to Andy Slaughter since it would bring areas into his constituency which are not currently subject to a serious gentrification process (though some Acton streets are trending a bit more upmarket than they were a few years ago perhaps). Basically H.Hemmelig is probably right
Labour will be very very disappointed with the GLA results here. Failing to win any of the Tory wards.
The result in Ravenscourt Park must have been particularly disappoitning as well as Boris beating Ken in Hammersmith Broadway.
The result in Avonmore & Brook Green was interesting though. Traditionally the safest Tory ward in Hammersmith but it saw a big swing to Labour on the GLA result and should now be considered marginal.
Though Labour’s biggest problem in retaking H&F isn’t in Hammersmith, it is their complete colapse in Fulham. Sands End now looks safe. Fulham Broadway is still on the edge of marginality but the rest of Fulham is now utterly beyond Labour.
“The boundary change if it does occur might be a blessing in disguise to Andy Slaughter”
I’m not so sure about that. Look at the result this May in Southfield ward. That ward is better for the Tories than any ward in the current Hammersmith seat.
Those three Acton wards also remember when Slaughter represneted them between 2005-2010. From what I understand, he spent zero time there, focusing entirely on Hammersmith. Hammersmith & Acton also loses College Park ward, which is extremely solid for Labour and it loses North End ward, which despite moving towards the Tories in the long run, is Slaughter’s old ward when he was on the Council and might have a personal vote for him.
The news seat is going to be very interesting.
It strikes me that there is a difference between traditional medium town swing seats – where the electoral swing is among the skilled working and lower middle classes – and constituencies such as this and Tooting where there are clearly defined blocks of support and turnout and demographic change are the key factors.
And which I suspect was partly responsible for the Cameroon over optimism in such areas.
One of the government’s biggest failings is its total lack of action against public sector fatcats.
Bringing in a maximum level of public sector (including the BBC) earnings would be a good vote winner among the skilled working and lower middle classes.
The resulting outrage by various council bosses, hospital executives and BBC luvvies would also improve the national mood.
That such a policy is justified has been proven once again by the this week’s revelations of tax dodging among among public sector fatcats.
The likelihood of the metropolitan weakling Cameron taking action against his fellow metropolitans is of course zero. I believe he would rather lose an election than lose face at Notting Hill dinner parties.
I don’t usually find myself at dinner parties with such as Fiona Bruce – though I do know one or 2 very highly-paid public sector employees – and I would certainly take action to stamp out these practices were I to become Prime Minister.
“Bringing in a maximum level of public sector (including the BBC) earnings would be a good vote winner among the skilled working and lower middle classes.”
Not if it ends up causing a mass brain drain, ruining the calibre of the people running the civil service.
Haven’t you seen the West Coast rail franchise fiasco?
“Haven’t you seen the West Coast rail franchise fiasco?”
Yes and other transport fiascos and similar financial and operational disasters to do with PFI, defence contracts, IT systems etc.
And if you haven’t noticed HH they’ve been presided over by those ‘brains’ you appear fearful are going to be drained away.
How would we survive without people of that ‘calibre’.
Do you not agree that reducing salaries for the best people in the civil service would cause many of the better people to leave, leaving those who are less talented and less employable? And even more likely to mess up major projects?
An utterly pathetic attitude to public sector mismanagement and greed.
What the public services need is a good clear out of incompetants.
Have you ever fancied being an MP HH? If you were able to tick a couple of diversity boxes the Cameroons would love you.
The ‘we have to pay the top people what they want or they might leave’ line was used by those trying to justify giving Stephen Hester of RBS a £1m bonus.
It was bollox in that case and its bollox in this case too.
IMO one of the problems is that attention to detail as a highly-prized skill is no longer valued in the way it once was. It’s all about “the big picture” now; paying attention to fine details is regarded as the province of boring anoraks. Such people tend not to be as personable and therefore are out of favour in today’s workplace. The result is the kind of mistakes we’re seeing with the West Coast Mainline shambles.
BBC TV Centre is presently in Shepherds Bush Green ward in this constituency, but before the 2002 boundary changes I believe it was in the old White City and Shepherds Bush ward. I think in terms of seats it was in Hammersmith North until 1983, Hammersmith until 1997 and Ealing Acton and Shepherds Bush until 2010
That seems to be correct.
This seat is most unusual as being one lost by Labour in 1945, but not at any time thereafter (unless you count Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005).
Labour didn’t lose many seats in 1945 – one other loss was Mile End, the area of which also stayed Labour until 2005 Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour didn’t win West Fife in 1945, and indeed hadn’t won it since 1929, but although the boundaries are harder to trace, I think it’s all stayed Labour since they won it in 1950.
Census results, white British – 2001 / 2011:
Addison: 56.2% / 45.4%
Askew: 54.6% / 41.2%
Avonmore and Brook Green: 52.2% / 37.9%
College Park and Old Oak: 49.5% / 31.6%
Fulham Reach: 59.5% / 45.2%
Hammersmith Broadway: 56.6% / 44.5%
North End: 56.6% / 40.6%
Ravenscourt Park: 62.5% / 53.9%
Shepherd’s Bush Green: 50.3% / 36.5%
Wormholt and White City: 47.1% / 30.9%
Hammersmith: 54.6% / 40.7%
White overall, Hammersmith:
2001: 74.3%
2011: 63.3%
Unsurprisingly Ravenscourt Park remains the “odd one out” ward in this constituency in terms of ethnicity.
It does have a very multiracial council estate minority however. These estates are a mixture of older property (like the blocks visible from the station) and more modern (like the new housing on the site of the former Queen Charlotte hospital, which had the great honour to see my birth in 1960).
Result of the Wormholt & White City ward by-election last night:
Lab 1419 C 251 LD 209 UKIP 122 Ind 75 BNP 45.
It’s Labour’s safest ward in the Borough but it still looks a pretty solid result to me.
Is this constituency actually trending Conservative demographically?
This is widely believed because of gentrification but isn’t the reality that there are two demographic changes occurring:
wwc being replaced by wumc in the gentrifying areas
wwc being replaced by nwwc in the council estates
While the first trend is pro-Conservative the second is pro-Labour.
Dont the increasing property prices mean that the number of UMCs is increasingly outgrowing the no of WCs here?
I guess the good thing for the tories in places like this is that many previous LDs already went Lab in 2010, so the remaining vote might be a bit more core than elsewhere.
What does UMC stand for?
upper middle class
The relevant issue regarding demographic change here is whether the number of ‘yuppies’ is increasing faster than the number of non-whites.
Andy
Do you have the number of graduates by constituency in 2011 yet?
If the Tories were to gain this in 2015
it would require a similar turnaround to Battersea between 1983 and 1987.
I think it is do-able
but it’s very tough with the solid Labour voting blocks
whereas in Battersea even those areas had changed quite a bit.
Perhaps this is the type of seat where the LD defections voters wouldn’t necessarily go particularly to Labour.
If “Level 4 Qualifications and Above” signifies graduates, the 2011 percentage for Hammersmith was 47.5%:
ht tp://bit.ly/12EJM2j