Hammersmith
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18662 (44.6%)
Conservative: 13015 (31.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8044 (19.2%)
Other: 2127 (5.1%)
Majority: 5646 (13.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22407 (45.4%)
Labour: 17378 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7116 (14.4%)
Green: 1933 (3.9%)
UKIP: 493 (1%)
Majority: 5029 (10.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17786 (39.8%)
Labour: 19801 (44.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5294 (11.8%)
UKIP: 375 (0.8%)
Green: 1444 (3.2%)
Majority: 2015 (4.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21420 (39.6%)
Labour: 25262 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4728 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1023 (1.9%)
Other: 1593 (2.9%)
Majority: 3842 (7.1%)
Boundary changes: Major. The borough of Hammersmith and Fulham is paired with Kensington, rather than Ealing. This means the creation of a new Chelsea and Fulham seat, taking half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham. and the addition of the areas of Hammersmith and Fulham that had previously been in the Ealing Acton and Shepherds Bush seat.
Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, the western part of Earl`s Court (the exhibition centre itself straddles the border between this and Westminster North), West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the BBC Television Centre.
The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative – it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. However, there are major boundary changes with the Fulham half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham pairing forming part of the new Chelsea and Fulham seat (and taking with it the current Conservative MP Greg Hands) and the seat gaining the the north part of Hammersmith and Fulham from the old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush seat (and bringing with it Labour MP and former Hammersmith and Fulham council leader Andy Slaughter). The northern part of this seat is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The norther part of the seat also includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital and the Linford Christie Stadium.
Outgoing MP: Greg Hands(Conservative) born 1965 in New York to British parents. Educated at Dr Challoner`s Grammar School and Cambridge University. Former banker. Former Hammersmith & Fulham councillor and Leader of the Conservative group. First elected as MP for Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005. Will contest the new seat of Chelsea and Fulham at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Shaun Bailey (Conservative) born in North Kensington into a black working class family. Educated at Henry Compton School and South Bank University. Director of MyGeneration, a youth charity, and a research fellow for the CPS.
Andrew Slaughter (Labour) born 1960, London. Barrister specialising in criminal law. Former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Contested Uxbridge by-election in 1997, First elected in 2005. Currently the MP for Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush.
Merlene Emerson (Liberal Democrat) born Singapore. Educated at Kings College. Former corporate lawyer. Contested West Central in 2008 GLA elections.
Rollo Miles (Green) Born 1974, London. Educated at Chelsea school of Art. Works in property.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107934
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 18.6%
Over 60: 14%
Born outside UK: 35%
White: 74.3%
Black: 13.4%
Asian: 5.1%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.1%
Christian: 60.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Jewish: 0.7%
Muslim: 8.2%
Full time students: 7.4%
Graduates 16-74: 43.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19%
Owner-Occupied: 41.1%
Social Housing: 35.6% (Council: 20.3%, Housing Ass.: 15.4%)
Privately Rented: 19.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.9%
Yes they have Lab majority 3,673 (8.4%)
That’s a very wide discrepancy and would go some way towards explaining the bookmakers’ odds. Are there any other examples of such a wide divergence?
I think Newquay & St Austell has the biggest divergence I have seen
“Mr Slaughter appears to be in a spot of trouble.”
I dont understand what the issue is in that article, I would say that there is nothing wrong with Slaughter using parliamentary envelopes to campaign for getting elected. Surely that is what they are there for?
It is not what they for. They are to communicate with ones constituents – not to campaign. The majority of the electors in this constituency (and the ones concerned in the article) are not constituents of Andrew Slaughter and may well never be.
Barnaby
The Copeland / Workington split is rather infamous.
1979
Hammersmith North
Labour hold
CS Soley Labour 17,241 48.19%
J Cripps Conservative 13,735 38.39%
SHJA Knott Liberal 4,147 11.59%
R Pearse National Front 462 1.29%
C Stewart Workers Revolutionary Party 193 0.54%
Electorate: 50,821; Turnout: 70.40%;
Majority: 3,506 (9.80%
October 1974
Hammersmith North
Labour hold
F Tomney Labour 18,061 53.38%
RG Beckett Conservative 9,939 29.38%
SHJA Knott Liberal 5,200 15.37%
JP McFadden Ind 633 1.87%
Electorate: 52,371; Turnout: 64.60%;
Majority: 8,122 (24.01%
February 1974
Hammersmith North
new constituency boundaries
F Tomney Labour 18,970 49.45%
RG Beckett Conservative 11,929 31.10%
S Knott Liberal 7,460 19.45%
Electorate: 52,036; Turnout: 73.72%;
Majority: 7,041 (18.36%)
The Populus poll reported today of the 100 Labour marginals most challenged by the Conservatives suggests a 6.7% swing in such seats. Which puts this constituency right in multi-recount territory, notionally with Labout getting back by a hundred votes or so.
Is this how people with local knowledge currently see the state of play?
Frederick, are you aware that the official Rallings & Thrasher notional results give Labour only a 8.4% lead in this seat, so requiring a swing of 4.3% for the Conservatives to win?
Thanks for pointing this out, Andy
FS
Of course the swing in each seat will be individual and apart from the uncertainty abour the actual majority other factors such as changing demographics and the quality of the Conservative candidate suggest a greater than average swing in this seat.
Which seats have included present-day White City ward? I am guessing they will have been the same as listed in answer to my previous queries upthread.
Yes it will be the same answer as for Shepherd’s Bush