Hammersmith
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18662 (44.6%)
Conservative: 13015 (31.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8044 (19.2%)
Other: 2127 (5.1%)
Majority: 5646 (13.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22407 (45.4%)
Labour: 17378 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7116 (14.4%)
Green: 1933 (3.9%)
UKIP: 493 (1%)
Majority: 5029 (10.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17786 (39.8%)
Labour: 19801 (44.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5294 (11.8%)
UKIP: 375 (0.8%)
Green: 1444 (3.2%)
Majority: 2015 (4.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21420 (39.6%)
Labour: 25262 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4728 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1023 (1.9%)
Other: 1593 (2.9%)
Majority: 3842 (7.1%)
Boundary changes: Major. The borough of Hammersmith and Fulham is paired with Kensington, rather than Ealing. This means the creation of a new Chelsea and Fulham seat, taking half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham. and the addition of the areas of Hammersmith and Fulham that had previously been in the Ealing Acton and Shepherds Bush seat.
Profile: A west London seat consisting of the western part of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, stretching from Wormwood Scrubs in the north down to the Thames and up to the West Cross Route (the former M41) in the east. The seat covers the successful commerical and business hub of Hammersmith itself, the western part of Earl’s Court (the exhibition centre itself straddles the border between this and Westminster North), West Kensington, Shepherds Bush and White City, site of the BBC Television Centre.
The south of this seat is comparatively Conservative - it includes run down areas like West Kensington and council estates like Lytton, but at a local level the Conservatives swept dramatically to power in 2006. However, there are major boundary changes with the Fulham half of the old Hammersmith and Fulham pairing forming part of the new Chelsea and Fulham seat (and taking with it the current Conservative MP Greg Hands) and the seat gaining the the north part of Hammersmith and Fulham from the old Ealing Acton and Shepherd’s Bush seat (and bringing with it Labour MP and former Hammersmith and Fulham council leader Andy Slaughter). The northern part of this seat is far more Labour, including as it does a large ethnic population and council estates like White City and the Edward Woods Estate. The norther part of the seat also includes HMP Wormwood Scrubs, Hammersmith Hospital and the Linford Christie Stadium.
Current MP: Greg Hands (Con) born 1965 in New York to British parents. Educated at Dr Challoner`s Grammar School and Cambridge University. Former banker. Former Hammersmith & Fulham councillor and Leader of the Conservative group. First elected as MP for Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005. Will contest the new seat of Chelsea and Fulham at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Andrew Slaughter (Labour) born 1960, London. Barrister specialising in criminal law. Former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Contested Uxbridge by-election in 1997, First elected in 2005. Currently the MP for Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush.
Shaun Bailey (Conservative) born in North Kensington into a black working class family. Educated at Henry Compton School and South Bank University. Director of MyGeneration, a youth charity, and a research fellow for the CPS.
Merlene Emerson (Liberal Democrat) born Singapore. Educated at Kings College. Former corporate lawyer. Contested West Central in 2008 GLA elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107934
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 18.6%
Over 60: 14%
Born outside UK: 35%
White: 74.3%
Black: 13.4%
Asian: 5.1%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.1%
Christian: 60.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Jewish: 0.7%
Muslim: 8.2%
Full time students: 7.4%
Graduates 16-74: 43.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19%
Owner-Occupied: 41.1%
Social Housing: 35.6% (Council: 20.3%, Housing Ass.: 15.4%)
Privately Rented: 19.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.9%
Although Tooting clearly does show signs of a definate swing away from Labour compared to the rest of the country if you look back over its history (albeit on different boundaries):
Oct 1974 national Labour majority= 3, Tooting Maj= 23%
1983 national Tory majority= 144, Tooting Maj= 5.8%
1992 national Tory majority= 21, Tooting Maj= 8%
1997 national Labour Maj= 179, Tooting Maj= 32.6%
2005 national Labour maj= 66, Tooting Maj= 13%
As has been pointed out, the Tower Hamlets situation is different in that the only wards the Tories at present win is the Isle of Dogs. Whilst it is a reasonably sized area of the south of the borough, it is only two wards and the grip on that area is still quite precarious.
November 13th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
——————————————————
Is St Katherines Ward (which includes The Tower of London) not split with a Tory councillor, and in the past was marginal to the Tories when the two Isle of Dogs wards were solid Labour?
Labour Hold by 2,500
HAMMERSMITH-prediction 2010
Labour: 16,523 (37.9 %)
Conservative: 16,381 (37.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 7,754 (17.8%)
Other: 2,882 (6.6%)
Lab Hold
Majority: 142 (0.3%)
I’d put the LDs and Others a bit lower, and the other parties around 40 each, but this is too close to call either way, so in some agreement.
This seat probably has to be a prime candidate for a recount, with a swing of around 6-7% likely.
It is a bit of an unknown quantity. It remains to be seen whether Shaun Bailey can connect with voters in the Labour stronghold, or whether it is in line with the swing, or whether the swing is large enough anyway.
But as a most likely, I’d say 40 each.
I’ve mentioned it elsewhere, but I think we might actually see a fairly even swing across the country - more than most people think - except in Scotland.
Andrew Slaughter has resigned as PPS to Lord Malloch-Brown over Heathrow.
I disagree with the bookies regarding this seat in particular, and expect a convincing Labour hold.
Labour: 19000
Conservative: 16000
Liberal Democrat: 6000
Other: 2000
Majority: 3000
Iain,
When you said a ‘convincing Labour hold’ did you really mean 3000.
I think the bookies might be right here as the Tories; won the wards which form this seat at the last council elections and have a good candidate while the Labour guy could not even take the ultra marginal Uxbridge while there was a massive Labour lead in the polls - even compaired to the 1997 general election result.
Slaughter will not be slaughtered - the result will be close - but I don’t see how he can hold on.