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Haltemprice and Howden

2010 Results:
Conservative: 24486 (50.24%)
Labour: 7630 (15.66%)
Liberal Democrat: 12884 (26.44%)
BNP: 1583 (3.25%)
Green: 669 (1.37%)
English Democrat: 1485 (3.05%)
Majority: 11602 (23.8%)

2005 Notional Results:
Conservative: 22696 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 17611 (36.8%)
Labour: 6033 (12.6%)
Other: 1454 (3%)
Majority: 5085 (10.6%)

2005 Results:
Conservative: 22792 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 17676 (36.8%)
Labour: 6104 (12.7%)
BNP: 798 (1.7%)
UKIP: 659 (1.4%)
Majority: 5116 (10.7%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 18994 (43.2%)
Labour: 6898 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 17091 (38.9%)
UKIP: 945 (2.2%)
Majority: 1903 (4.3%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 21809 (44%)
Labour: 11701 (23.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 14295 (28.8%)
Referendum: 1370 (2.8%)
Other: 375 (0.8%)
Majority: 7514 (15.2%)

Boundary Changes: Minor. Gains a small part of Cottingham North, loses a small part of Beverley Rural.

Profile: This seat mainly consists of the the middle class suburbs of Hull that lie outside the city boundaries, places like Willerby, Kirk Ella, Anlaby and Cottingham (which also includes most of the Halls of Residence for Hull University). Beyond that it stretches out westwards along the A63 to take in smaller towns and villages like Bubwith and Howden itself.

Normally a safe Conservative seat, it has been heavily targetted by the Liberal Democrats who saw the chance to claim the scalp of a Conservative big hitter, ultimately unsuccessfully. In 2008 David Davis made the highly unusual decision to voluntarily submit to a by-election, stepping down to fight an election on the issue of 42 day detention.

portraitCurrent MP: David Davis(Conservative) born 1948, York. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Warwick University. Former senior executive with Tate and Lyle and member of the territorial army`s SAS regiment. First elected as MP for Boothferry in 1987. Government whip and later Minister of State in the foreign officer 1994-1997. He did not serve on the Conservative front bench under William Hague, instead chairing the Public Accounts Committee. He contested the 2001 leadership election finishing fourth. Conservative party chairman 2001-2002, shadow deputy Prime Minister 2002-2003. Following Iain Duncan Smith`s removal as leader Davis was expected to stand, but instead stood aside to allow Michael Howard to become leader without a contest. He served as shadow Home secretary under Howard and was the clear front runner to succeed him in 2005, but after what was seen as a lacklustre conference speech he was eclipsed by David Cameron and ended up finishing as runner up in the 2005 leadership election. He continued as shadow home secretary until his shock resignation from the Commons in 2008 to fight a by-election on the issue of 42 day detention (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitDavid Davis(Conservative) born 1948, York. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Warwick University. Former senior executive with Tate and Lyle and member of the territorial army`s SAS regiment. First elected as MP for Boothferry in 1987. Government whip and later Minister of State in the foreign officer 1994-1997. He did not serve on the Conservative front bench under William Hague, instead chairing the Public Accounts Committee. He contested the 2001 leadership election finishing fourth. Conservative party chairman 2001-2002, shadow deputy Prime Minister 2002-2003. Following Iain Duncan Smith`s removal as leader Davis was expected to stand, but instead stood aside to allow Michael Howard to become leader without a contest. He served as shadow Home secretary under Howard and was the clear front runner to succeed him in 2005, but after what was seen as a lacklustre conference speech he was eclipsed by David Cameron and ended up finishing as runner up in the 2005 leadership election. He continued as shadow home secretary until his shock resignation from the Commons in 2008 to fight a by-election on the issue of 42 day detention (more information at They work for you)
portraitDaniel Marten (Labour)
portraitJon Neal (Liberal Democrat)
portraitShan Oakes (Green) Educated at Plympton Grammar School and Leicester University. Former English teacher and LEA officer. Contested Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election.
portraitJames Cornell (BNP)
portraitJoanne Robinson (English Democrat) born 1957. Office manager. Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2001 for UKIP, 2008 by-election for English Democrats. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 83931
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 20.4%
Over 60: 24.6%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 98.2%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.8%
Full time students: 4.7%
Graduates 16-74: 21.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24%
Owner-Occupied: 85%
Social Housing: 8% (Council: 7.2%, Housing Ass.: 0.8%)
Privately Rented: 4.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.8%

2008 By-election

Formerly Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis announced his intention on the 12th June to resign and fight a by-election on the issue of 42 detention of terrorist suspects. The election was held on the 10th July. The Liberal Democrats, who also opposed the legislation declined to stand against him and Labour, branding his actions a stunt, also declined to put up a candidate. Initially former editor of the Sun Kelvin Mackenzie indicated he would stand as an independent pro-42 days candidate, backed by the Sun newspaper, but eventually withdrew. Parties such as the BNP and UKIP also said they will not put up candidates, leaving Davis only the Green party and frivilous, fringe and independent candidates opposing him. There was a record field of 26 candidates, only three of whom retained their deposits and Davis was easily returned.

By-election result:

David Davis (Conservative) 17113 (71.6%)
Shan Oakes (Green) 1758 (7.4%)
Joanne Robinson (Eng Dem) 1714 (7.2%)
Tess Culnane (Nat Front) 544 (2.3%)
Gemma Garrett (Miss GB) 521 (2.2%)
Jill Saward (Independent) 492 (2.1%)
Mad Cow-Girl (OMRLP) 412 (1.7%)
Walter Sweeney (Independent) 238 (1.0%)
John Nicholson (Independent) 162 (0.7%)
David Craig (Independent) 135 (0.6%)
David Pinder (New Party) 135 (0.6%)
David Icke (No description) 110 (0.5%)
Hamish Howitt (F4C) 91 (0.4%)
Chris Talbot (Soc Equality) 84 (0.4%)
Grace Astley (Independent) 77 (0.3%)
George Hargreaves (Christian) 76 (0.3%)
David Bishop (Militant Elvis) 44 (0.2%)
John Upex (Independent) 38 (0.2%)
Greg Wood (Independent) 32 (0.1%)
Eamonn Fitzpatrick (Independent) 31 (0.1%)
Ronnie Carroll (Make Politicians History) 29 (0.1%)
Thomas Darwood (Independent) 25 (0.1%)
Christopher Foren (Independent) 23 (0.1%)
Herbert Crossman (Independent) 11 (0.0%)
Tony Farnon (Independent) 8 (0.0%)
Norman Scarth (Independent) 8 (0.0%)
Majority: 15335 (64.2%)

By-election Candidates:
portraitDavid Davis (Conservative) born 1948, York. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Warwick University. Former senior executive with Tate and Lyle and member of the territorial army`s SAS regiment. First elected as MP for Boothferry in 1987. Government whip and later Minister of State in the foreign officer 1994-1997. He did not serve on the Conservative front bench under William Hague, instead chairing the Public Accounts Committee. He contested the 2001 leadership election finishing fourth. Conservative party chairman 2001-2002, shadow deputy Prime Minister 2002-2003. Following Iain Duncan Smith`s removal as leader Davis was expected to stand, but instead stood aside to allow Michael Howard to become leader without a contest. He served as shadow Home secretary under Howard and was the clear front runner to succeed him in 2005, but after what was seen as a lacklustre conference speech he was eclipsed by David Cameron and ended up finishing as runner up in the 2005 leadership election. He continued as shadow home secretary until his shock resignation from the Commons over the issue of 42 day detention.
portraitShan Oakes (Green) Educated at Plympton Grammar School and Leicester University. Former English teacher and LEA officer.
portraitJoanne Robinson (English Democrat) born 1957. Office manager. Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2001 for UKIP.
portraitMad Cow-Girl (Official Monster Raving Loony) Real name Rosalyn Warner. Born 1961, Harwich. Registered nurse. Contested Sunderland South 2001, 2005.
portraitChris Talbot (Socialist Equality) born Runcorn. Engineering mathematics lecturer at Huddersfield University. Contested South Wales Central list in 2007 Welsh elections.
portraitGemma Garrett (Miss Great Britain) Miss Great Britain for the year 2008, having been runner up in the previous year`s competition. Contested Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008.
portraitRonnie Carroll (Make Politicans History) born 1934, Belfast. Singer and entertainer. British entrant to the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963. Having previously moved into management he released several comeback records after Rainbow George Weiss won ownership of a house he had been squatting in and sold it to fund Carroll’s comeback. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 1997, Uxbridge by-election 1997, Hartlepool by-election 2004.
portraitHamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) Blackpool publican who in 2007 was the first to be prosecuted for continuing to allow smoking in his pub. Will contest Blackpool South at the next general election.
portraitDavid Craig (Independent) real name Neil Glass. Educated at Fettes and Cambridge University. Former management consultant turned author and campaigner against government waste.
portraitJill Saward (Independent) born 1965, Liverpool. Educated at Lady Margaret School. Victim of the Ealing Vicarage Rape in 1986, she later went public, authored a book called “Rape: My Story” and has campaigned on behalf of rape victims.
portraitDavid Icke (No description) born 1952, Leicester. Former professional footballer, forced to retire early through ill health he became a television sports presenter. He became a national media spokesman for the Green party, but in 1990 believes he received a message from the spirit world which lead to him infamously appearing on the Wogan chatshow, dressed in turquoise, to declare that he was a son of God with a message from the Godhead. He has subsequently pursued a career as a new age philosopher, speaker and author of conspiracy books, expressing his beliefs about the apocalypse, illuminanti and that prominent world leaders are reptilian shape-shifters. Is contesting the seat on an abstentionist platform.
portraitEamonn Fitzpatrick (Independent) Fruit and veg market trader. Contested Northampton South 2005.
portraitGeorge Hargreaves (Christian Party) born George Jackman in 1958. Educated at Woolverstone Hall School and Oxford University. Former songwriter, most famously penning Sinitta’s “So Macho”, now Pastor of the Hephizibah Christian Centre, Hackney. Contested Walthamstow for the Referendum Party in 1997. Contested 2004 Birmingham Hodge Hill by-election for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Scotland in 2004 European elections for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Na h-Eileanan an Lar 2005, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
portraitNorman Scarth (Independent) born 1925. Retired stud farmer. Gaoled for six years in 2001 for wounding with intent after attacking a baliff with a chainsaw. Contested Chesterfield in 1997 as an Independent Old Age Pensioner, Sedgefield by-election 2007 as an anti-crime candidate.
portraitWalter Sweeney (Independent) born 1949. Educated at Lawrence Sheriff School and Cambridge and Hull Universities. Solicitor. Bedfordshire county councillor 1981-1989. Contested Machester Stretford 1983. Conservative MP for Vale of Glamorgan 1992-1997.
portraitTess Culnane (National Front) Contested 2004 GLA election and European election for the BNP. Contested Greenwich and Lewisham in 2008 London elections.
portraitGrace Astley (Independent) Educated at Darwen Vale High School and Royal Holloway. Supply teacher.
portraitDavid Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis) Painter, decorator and poet – writing under the pen name of Lord Biro. Contested Tatton 1997, Brentwood and Ongar 2001, Erewash 2005.
portraitHerbert Crossman (Independent) Former Liberal Democrat councillor in Harrow. Contested Harrow West for the Referendum Party in 1997. Member of the Conservative party 1998-1999.
portraitThomas Darwood (Independent) religious publisher. Claims to be the true Archbishop of Canterbury, Pope and heir to the throne.
portraitTony Farnon (Independent) Promoting an anti-smoking website.
portraitChristopher Foren (Independent) Retired crown prosecutor. Standing on a platform of putting the environment ahead of economic growth and limiting population growth.
portraitJohn Nicholson (Independent) Former pig farmer. Standing as a independent conservative. Publisher of a early years education system.
portraitDavid Pinder (New Party) Former soldier, civil servant and Chamber of Commerce chief executive.
portraitJohn Upex (Independent) born Leeds. Businessman, running a manufacturing company. Contested Wakefield 2005 for UKIP.
portraitGreg Wood (Independent) Former Royal Navy medical officer.
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NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

644 Responses to “Haltemprice and Howden”

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  1. Does anyone know if the Lib Dems have selected a candidate here yet – the previous one stood down a long time ago

  2. If I understood the posts on here correctly, has Cottingham been in:

    Howdenshire 1885-1918
    Holderness 1918-50
    Haltemprice 1950-83
    Beverley 1983-97
    Haltemprice and Howden 1997-present

  3. Not sure about Holderness Harry. Could it perhaps have been in Buckrose before 1950?

  4. Cons Hold= 9,000 maj

  5. Con Hold

    Maj 8200

  6. BNP have selected James Cornell

  7. Con maj 10,000

  8. Far, far, far fewer candidates in 2010 :)

    James CORNELL (BNP)
    David DAVIS (Conservative)
    Danny MARTEN (Labour)
    John NEAL (Liberal Democrats)
    Shan OAKES (Green)
    Joanne ROBINSON (Eng Dem)

    Oh, that’s it….

  9. CON GAIN

  10. gain? SORRY – CON HOLD

  11. The Labour vote increased 3.1% points here this time.

    Clearly some unwind of tactical voting after the closer contests of 2001 and 2005.

    I still hope David Davis returns to government, if he wants it.

  12. It’s a matter of deep regret that the dredful feminazi May is Home Secretary and not Davis.

  13. Er… why do you imply that Theresa May is a Nazi?

    There is a simple reason why David Davis is not Home Secretary… he doesn’t seem to want to work with DavidCameron… rather he seems to prefer poking his finger in DC’s back.
    I think if he was in the Cabinet there would be a very good chance that that finger would morph into a knife.
    I (and it appears David Cameron) do not trust Mr Davis.
    It’s one thing being willing to be independenty minded, it’s another to be a loose cannon – and I think that’s increasingly what he is.
    All because Cameron beat him to the leadership.

  14. John D – Davis or Others may be biding their time. With a Thatcherite intake and Cameron’s A Listers failing both the main Parties may have new leaders for the 2013 or 2014 election. Miliband v Fox would be interesting. Balls v Davis?

  15. I was just having a look through the local by-election results for those contests that took place on GE day. It appears that there was some sort of mix up involving the Conservative Party here which led them to not field a candidate in the contest for the vacant Willerby & Kirk Ella ward of East Riding council, despite the fact that the by-election was caused by the resignation of one of three Tory councillors for the ward. The seat was gained by the Liberal Democrats in a two way contest with Labour.

    I am unable to find any details of what actually happened, and the extent to which any local Conservatives were culpable. The local paper just says that: “Local Conservative officials say the matter is in the hands of their lawyers and has been referred to the Electoral Commission”. That suggests to me that they feel the error was not one of their own making.

  16. “I think if he was in the Cabinet there would be a very good chance that that finger would morph into a knife.”

    I would have thought there was more chance of that with him being on the backbenches? Better inside the tent and all that?

    I doubt DD was offered the opportunity to come back to the Cabinet, and equally I am not sure he would take it if it was.

  17. So, did the Lib Dems’ decision not to stand in the 2008 by-election damage them here?

  18. It might have made it somewhat stronger for the Conservatives,
    although his success in 2005, aswell as the elections in May 2007 for East Riding Council (where the Lib Dem leader lost) were the main building blocks I think.

  19. This constituency (in various guises) has had continuous Conservative representation since 1832. There are very few other places of which this is true

  20. It feels very like it.
    The LD strength (which hopefully has been “snuffed out” – although never assume) seemed a little anomolous to me.
    Doesn’t feel like natural LD territory.

    Feels like it should be a strong Tory seat with Labour second if anything.

  21. Incidentally Rosalyn Warner who stood here in the by-election as Mad Cow Girl and who made several contributions to this thread, sadly died earlier this month.
    Believed to be suicide :(

  22. Oh dear.
    That’s rather sad.
    She provided some valuable opposition after the cowardly behaviour of the former government in not contesting it (which ironically would have given them a chance perhaps to increase their vote with no LD candidate, despite it being in 2008)

  23. Very sad news indeed. I enjoyed reading her posts.
    This was her response to Green supporter Samantha Clarke, which I loved:

    “Why not drop out of the contest and throw your weight behind the Shan Oakes Green campaign?”

    Now, why would I do something like that?

    I think you’re confusing loonyism with stupidity.

    I may be a loony, but I’m not that mad.

  24. The sad news is announced here;

    http://www.omrlp.com/

  25. Note that the former Humberside area is to lose 1 seat under the 600 seat AV proposals.

    At first sight things would revert back to 1997 with Brigg & Goole and Haltenprice & Howden being re-merged back into a Boothferry constituency.

    On refelection it is more likely to see the West Hull suburbs of Haltenprice entirely annexed by Hull (currently Hessle is part of Hull for parlimentary purposes but not Cottingham, Willerby ect).

    I would imagine that there would be some arguement between Labour and the Lib Dems for the new Hull / Haltenprice boundaries.

    Labour would prefer Haltenprice twinned with wards from Hull West, with Hull North gaining more secure Hull West wards.

    Lib Dems would want the core Hull seats to be Hull East & Hull West, with a Hull North & Haltenprice covering the university area and the Avenues where the Lib Dems are strong.

    Hull Haltenprice

  26. Haltemprice & Howden was “saturated” by the Lib Dems in 2005, every possible Lib Dem voter was identified. In 2010 Davis got wise, many Daily Mail reading locals supported Davis over the by-election and he made sure that he ran a strong poster campaign.
    The Lib Dems abandoned the seat- the real surprise was the Labour candidate who beat the national swing, and increased their vote by 25%

  27. Surely David Davis got wise after the 2001 scare, as action was taken in 2005.

    A Tory canvasser told me that he hadn’t previously enjoyed canvassing in Howden itself as there was quite an anti Con vote there, perhaps Labour but voting LD tactically.
    So it gave me some pleasure when the Tories gained Howden in the council election in December 2005.

  28. Forecast, May 2011
    East Riding of Yorkshire
    Con hold.

  29. The Tories have gained even more seats from the Lib Dems in East Riding of Yorkshire this time.

    There’s been quite a substantial Labour recovery at the expense of the Lib Dems in Haltemprice and Howden,
    near parity with the LDs in the Cottinghams, South Hunsley, and actually ahead of them in rural Howdenshire.

    Slightly disappointing for the Tories is our majority in Howden has been cut by the Lib Dems.

  30. 2 of the Labour candidates beat the Lib Dems in Dale aswell (the Brough area).

    That is quite incredible.
    At the time when I went up to help in 2005, the Labour vote was tiny in this area, and was in 2007.

  31. I wonder if the rest of the Haltemprice area was added to Hull (Hessel has already been added to Hull West) if this would increase the cities electorate to the new quota.

    A seat combining all of Haltemprice with Bricknell, Avenue, Newland, Orchard Park and University would be notionally Tory.

    Hull East could extend to include NE of Hull, so that all of East Hull was now in Hull East.

    Hull West Central could see Hessle returned to Haltemprice and Beveley and Newland gained from Hull North.

    The alternative would be to twin Hull with Holderness,

    This would create

    Holderness & Hull East
    Hull North
    Hull West

  32. Sadly this historic name of two former seats disappears,
    and the very old Haltemprice name.

    The seat basically remains enhanced, with one ward from the Isle of Axholme, and the town of Goole.

    Renamed Goole and Cottingham.

    Cleethorpes is dismembered, with knock on effects as far as here.

  33. Actually I would say it is Brigg & Goole which is dismembered – a third into ‘here’, a third into Scunthorpe and a third into Cleethorpes without Cleethorpes.

  34. The boundary changes seem to be conveniently threatening the careers of some of the most rebellious Tory MPs.

    Cameron would I’m sure be just as ecstatic to see the back of serial rebel Andrew Percy in Brigg & Goole as he would to get rid of Nadine Dorries, Bill Cash and Phillip Davies who are all in the same boat.

    I’m sure the chances of any of these finding a new seat will be minimised if CCHQ has any say in the matter.

  35. “Sadly this historic name of two former seats disappears, and the very old Haltemprice name.”

    The pre-1997 Bridlington is back, however, now called Bridlington & Holderness.

    I felt that it formed a very logical coastal constituency and it never really worked being divided between Stamford Bridge/ Pocklington and Beverley from 1997 -now.

    Ironically, its possible that Labour might have gained Bridlington in 1997 due to their performance in Holderness and Bridlington Town.

  36. I think the arrangement of Hull and Haltenprice is odd.

    Hull and Haltenprice (West Hull surburbia – Cottingham to Hessle) would have met the quota for three constituencies.

    The Hull seats don’t include the two Cottingham wards but do include two wards beyond Hull & Haltenprice (Dale and Holderness SW).

    I would put the form three Hull and Haltenprice constituencies as follows –

    Hull East (all of East Hull except Drypool, Marfleet and Southcoates West). That includes the East Hull wards of Kings Park and Bransholme (currently in Hull North).

    Hull North & Haltenprice (Avenue, Beverley, Bicknell, Newland, Orchard Park and University and the 5 Haltenprice wards from East Yorkshire).

    Hull Riverside (the 9 remaining wards of Hull stretching along the Humber from Derringham and Pickering in the West to Marfleet in the East).

    This would mean that the Beverley & Holderness constituency would need to be retained but that would be a reasonable price to pay for a more logical Hull as opposed to the dogs breakfast presented.

    I would call a constituency based on the current Yorkshire East….Bridlington & Pocklington.

  37. Dale ward will be in the new Cottingham & Goole constituency.

    I wonder if DD would be tempted to stand in HW&H in 2015 leaving C&G free for his mate Andrew Percy.

    It would be the sort of quixotic thing that DD might relish.

  38. Yes…confused it with South Hunsley.

    This is a ward in East Yorkshire not part of Haltenprice which will make Hull West geographically massive.

    Graham Stuart is kicking up a full over the partition of Holderness (SW going into Hull East).

    The outcome may be that Beverley & Holderness may remain as a constituency and Bridlington will be based largely on the current East Yorkshire boundaries.

    South Hunsley and Holderness SW would be swapped for the two Cottingham wards so Hull and the 5 Haltenprice wards would form 3 very neat and compact constituencies.

    My preference would be for –

    Hull East

    Hull City Wards: Bransholme East, Bransholme West, Holderness, Ings, Kings Park, Longhill, Southcoates East and Sutton.

    Hull North & Haltenprice

    Hull City Wards: Avenue, Beverley, Bicknell, Newland, Orchard Park and University,
    East Yorkshire Wards: Cottingham North, Cottingham South, Hessle, Tranby and Willerby & Kirk Ella.

    Hull Riverside

    Boothferry, Derringham, Drypool, Marfleet, Myton, Newington, Pickering, St Andrews and Soutcoates West.

  39. I didn’t realise Dale is to be in Goole and Cottingham.
    I thought I read somewhere that it was going into Hull W & Hessle.
    But I think I hope the latter is a mistake.

  40. What were the predecessor seats to the Howden constituency which was created in 1955? (represented for its entire existence by Sir Paul Bryan.)

  41. Most of the area was in Beverley from 1950 to 1955 with a small bit in Bridlington. Prior to 1950 there was a Howdenshire seat though the boundaries were ratehr different. It then included the whole Haltemprice area but Driffeld and Norton were in Buckrose

  42. Haltemprice and Howden
    May 2015
    Unchanged boundaries

    I think Labour will nose into second here.
    DD’s vote share to rise.
    LDs on about 18%

    UKIP and BNP won’t stand. Greens to go up as LDs decline.

  43. I’d be surprised if Labour get second place when the LDs took three times as many votes as them in 2005.

  44. Maybe – but Labour looked like they had already made a considerable advance in May 2011 if you go through the wards.
    Maybe the Lib Dems are favourites to stay second, but the thought of Labour going ahead of them when the gap is already just 11% isn’t all that difficult to picture.

    If the boundary changes don’t go through
    which I think probably not,
    although not certain.

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