Comments on: Halifax

By: Tory

Tory — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 17:23:20 +0000

The proposed Halifax looks like an exciting marginal for 2015.

By: apollocyclops36

apollocyclops36 — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:19:03 +0000

Hipperholme & Lightcliffe 1971 * 2200 Plus votes for Independent.
Brighouse 1371
Rastrick 2574
Elland 1534
Greetland and Stainland 1854
Ryburn 2687
Luddenden Foot 1626
Todmorden 1665
Calder 2775
Total 18057 Tory votes in calder valley for all Tory cllr candidates 2010.
Total Number of votes for Tory MP Calder Valley: 20,397

By: apollocyclops36

apollocyclops36 — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:00:13 +0000

The proposed boundary changes indicate to me that the inclusion of Hipperholme and Lightcliffe ward into Halifax would likely change the notional winning party in 2010 from Labour to Conservative.
I have seen on the Guardian website the notional worked out on just the Conservative and Labour tally’s being added from this ward to Halifax. I believe that this is unrealistic given the Independent Cllr candidates 2200 votes. I suggest that as there was a general election and local elections simultaneously that a good deal of vote splitting went on in 2010 and given the nature of the area and historical Levels of Labour vote little of it would have gone to the Labour party from the Independent Cllr candidate. The Independent Cllr is a Newsagent and has a very high market saturation of local deliveries in the area.
So the Conservatives would probably be about a thousand ahead of Labour on the redrawn Halifax. However, they would be down more in the Calder Valley Guardian Notional.
I should imagine if someone had the time to work out the Calder valley 2010 result they would notice the Hipperholme and Lightcliffe anomaly re the council elections and notional impacts on Halifax and Calder Valley.

By: richard

richard — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 07:05:48 +0000

Are there any reasons why Labour have remained strong in the old Sowerby constituency with wins this year in Todmorden, Calder and Sowerby Bridge but are now much weaker in the old Brighouse & Spenborough constituency?

By: David

David — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 14:06:22 +0000

2011 Local election results and change on 2010

Halifax
Lab 41.0% (+9.3%)
Con 30.3% (-0.9%)
LD 18.0% (-8.6%)
Oth 10.7% (+0.2%)

Calder Valley
Con 34.5% (+1.8%)
Lab 30.2% (+8.5%)
LD 18.1% (-13.9%)
Oth 17.2% (+3.6%)

Tories profited well from LD fall in Calder Valley, they won 6 of the 9 wards, compared to 2 in 2010 (including a couple of wards that were Independent in 2010, and voted Tory in 2011). Labour went from 0 wards in 2010 to 2 wins in 2011 at Todmorden and Calder (the outer part of this seat).

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 09 May 2011 15:10:22 +0000

Not bad Joseph, all those gains eventuated. There were some close results, with Labour failing comfortably to take Brighouse yet coming pretty close in Rastrick, usually a more Tory town.

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 15:22:49 +0000

The local state of the parties are:-
Con = 19, LD = 16, Lab = 10, Ind = 4, BNP = 1, IndLib = 1.
Unusually the council is ran by the LD and Labour in coalition which is interesting given the national situation.

I think the council would remain NOC here with Labour gaining Sowerby Bridge from the Tories, and from the LibDems in Todmorden and Warley. The LibDems are also vulnerable from the Tories in Skircoat. Therefore if we take this into account then the balance of power would be:-
Con = 18, Lab = 13, LD = 13, Ind 4, BNP = 1, IndLib = 1.
This is only my guess, as I am less familiar with Calderdale.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:16:34 +0000

The council here looks pretty certain to remain NOC but I defy any of you to make an accurate prediction. Perhaps Joseph with your local knowledge you could have a go?

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 22:24:05 +0000

The swing in Cannock Chase was the highest, but was in an area where there were several seats of 9, 10%.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 19:06:57 +0000

It does indeed. In fact it suggests that perhaps Warsi’s allegations were made to cover up earlier cases of fraud from Conservative councillors in Halifax just days before the last general election!