Halifax
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14806 (33.99%)
Labour: 16278 (37.37%)
Liberal Democrat: 8335 (19.14%)
BNP: 2760 (6.34%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.66%)
Majority: 1472 (3.38%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16620 (41.8%)
Conservative: 13182 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7112 (17.9%)
Other: 2825 (7.1%)
Majority: 3438 (8.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13162 (33.2%)
Labour: 16579 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7100 (17.9%)
BNP: 2627 (6.6%)
Other: 191 (0.5%)
Majority: 3417 (8.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13671 (33.8%)
Labour: 19800 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 5878 (14.6%)
UKIP: 1041 (2.6%)
Majority: 6129 (15.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16253 (32.1%)
Labour: 27465 (54.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6059 (12%)
Other: 779 (1.5%)
Majority: 11212 (22.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Linda Riordan(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Philip Allott (Conservative) Born 1959. Runs a marketing business. Former Harrogate councillor. Contested Brent North in 2001, Bolton West 2005. Linda Riordan(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Elisabeth Wilson (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Mount School, York. Self-employed lecturer and consultant. Former County councillor. Contested Bury North 1983, Colne Valley 2005.
Jay Sangha (UKIP)Tom Bates (BNP) 
Diane Park (Independent) Calderdale councillor since 2003. Originally selected as the Lib Dem PPC, in 2009 she resigned from the party and announced her intention to run as an Independent.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94756
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.9%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 8%
White: 88.5%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 10.1%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 67.6%
Muslim: 9.5%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.1%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 19.9% (Council: 10.6%, Housing Ass.: 9.3%)
Privately Rented: 8.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 21.3%
Barnaby whilst the 1979 wasn’t exactly wafer thin it backs up my point that Labour have in the past bucked the trend and held on in Halifax. I believe they could well do so this time. The ultimate winner here will have a majority in the hundreds and I believe Labour will hold.
Dr Shirley Summerskill & Alice Mahon were both held in high regard. I don’t know much about Linda Riordan, however, Labour have always appeared well organised in Halifax in mobilising its potential vote. So despite the problems over HBOS & BNP I have a feeling she will win through albeit narrowly.
Well Gary it is true that the Tories have still only won the seat 3 times since WWII (in 1955, 1959 and 1983). The seat won by Alice Mahon in 1987, a very bad year for Labour, was extremely similar to the present one. The losing candidate in 1959 was Peter Shore.
A lot still depends on whether Linda Riordan has worked the seat well enough to enjoy any amount of first-time incumbency. I am still worried about it but it would be true to say that swings here have always tended to be below rather than above average.
Linda Riordan was constantly in the News when HBOS was having its problems & she certainly organised meetings & sought out to meet with people involved at all levels.
I might be a Conservative but credit where credit is due and Linda did do all she could as the MP and was perhaps not given due credit in the media for this work.
I have long argued that any swing against Labour will not be uniform and that the LD’s could also benefit from any anti Labour swing. However, local factors, as you well know can come into play and I believe this could help Labour in Halifax.
I’m not expert just a keen amateur which is why I usually tend only to comment on seats I have a little knowledge of or have resided in , these are either in the North or West Riding, Lancashire, Cumberland or Staffs. I freely admit I get things wrong but judging opinon is difficult
National Polls have been so volatile of late I have stopped looking at them. They do not account for local issues or factors and in the case of Halifax this will, in my opinon at least help Labour. It is also why I believe Labour are in with a good chance of regaining Chesterfield.
This will be the last Election I will be able to actively campaign in as by the time of the next Election its likely I will have lost my sight completely. So perhaps I should put my penn’orth in on more seats and make the most of it.
Given that this seat has only voted Tory when the majority has been over 50 or 100 (although NOT in 1987) we should probably expect a Labour hold.
On the other hand, Labour notably did not turn this into a safe seat after 1997 and they really should have done.
Probably Labour, but by a whisker
BNP have selected Tom Bates
Con maj 1,500
Con majority 3,500 seems more likely because the word on the streets is anybody but Labour!
Gary – I am very sorry to hear about your sight loss and hope that you retain as much as possible as long as possible.
I don’t think it likely that if it’s a Tory gain it would be by much. I reckon Pete’s prediction is about as good as it would get for Riordan. With 2 Tories predicting a Labour hold I am still a little nervous about this one though. National polls suggest it will be very close indeed.
Thank you for your kind comments Barnaby, my eyesight problems are coming to head after 30 years of wondering when Blindness might occur. I fully intend to carry on as normally as I can. No point in getting teary eyed over it but my one sadness will been not being able to see my flower garden but I’ll still be able to smell it.
I agree whomever wins here it will be by a slender margin but based on past experience I still believe Labour will hold on. The seats history suggests this too and history does tend to repeat itself.
I hear what your saying about HBOS, but Linda didn’t ask for a debate to be held in Parliament and it took Gordon Brown 4 days to visit Halifax compared to 1 day to visit RBS.
The Conservative candidate, Philip Allott, collected and presented a 16 000 name petition to No 10 to try and prevent job losses at HBOS, plus he attended all of the public meetings that HBOS put on.
Unemployment has doubled in Halifax since Linda became MP, I think it’s definitely time for change.
This is the first time i’ll be voting Conservative but after reading their polices they are going to do more for the poorest and the economy in general compared to Labour.
This is a very tough one. First-time incumbency could limit the swing but my feeling, with great regret, is CON GAIN
feeling was wrong. LAB HELD
Linda Riordan is a good local MP and quite prepared to rebel where necessary.
The proxy and postal voting racket as reported on the BBC website relating to the Mirpur area of Kashmir could well have been decisive in this seat and others
Perhaps Phillip Allot should have stayed at Bolton West where he did well in 2005.
Although Susan Williams seemed good, consistency of candidate may have been worth a few votes,
and it was close there.
He seems to be the new Ian Sproat.
The Independent has an article today on allegations of postal vote fraud in this constituency. I won’t put a link up but a search should give the article.
well not really Joe, Labour did hold Bolton W as well and could well have done so had he been the candidate there too. Iain Sproat in contrast totally misread the boundary changes and left a seat he definitely would have won, although he would have lost it 4 years later.
Was chatting to some friends the other day about likely boundary changes throughout West Yorks, there is a notion that Queensbury might will be added to Halifax.
All hearsay at present I suppose, but somehow it would make sense.
So where are the Warsi 3?
This has to be one of them, though the result didn’t surprise me.
Hampstead must surely be another. A majority of 42 and IIRC there were claims of fraud there back in 1992.
But where’s the third?
Bolton W has a tiny majority but the Conservative performance while not good was much better than in Bolton NE.
Southampton Itchen also has a very small majority but that was because of a very big swing.
Walsall S perhaps?
Tooting perhaps?
There were doubtless all sorts of things happening in Bradford W and Poplar but the Labour majorities there were comfortable.
I forecast that the Conservatives would not do well here some years ago – nothing to do with electoral fraud at all – all down to local Conservative malfunctioning .
If we are to attribute all the best constituency results for Labour to electoral fiddling instead of the normal variation of swing at a GE , then perhaps we should do so for other parties also .
A clear case for suspicion would for example be Cannock Chase where the swing was way above that of neighbouring and similar constituencies .
“I forecast that the Conservatives would not do well here some years ago – nothing to do with electoral fraud at all – all down to local Conservative malfunctioning .”
I don’t think they malfunctioned rather that they greatly overperformed between 1997 and 2005 followed by a subsequent return to ‘normal’.
It was very profitable betting on Labour here, though Bradford W was even better
As to Warsi she should put up or shut up.
Perhaps because of her background she regards electoral fraud as more widespread than it is.
According to the Daily Mail:
“The minister refused to name the areas involved but an investigation by BBC’s Newsnight found there are concerns about four constituences.
Police in Halifax and Oldham are investigating and Conservatives in Leicester and Bradford West are also reviewing results for possible fraud”
Looking at Conservatives votes in Yorkshire marginals since 1997:
Keighley
1997 18907
2005 15868
2010 20003
change +1096
Calder Valley
1997 19795
2005 17039
2010 20397
change +602
Pudsey
1997 19163
2005 14936
2010 18874
change -289 (smaller seat)
Shipley
1997 19966
2005 17922
2010 24002
change +4036 (smaller seat)
Colne Valley
1997 18445
2005 16630
2010 20440
change +1995 (bigger seat)
Elmet & Rothwell
1997 19569
2005 18347
2010 23778
change +4209 (bigger seat)
Brigg & Goole
1997 17104
2005 15443
2010 19680
change +2576 (smaller seat)
Cleethorpes
1997 16882
2005 16247
2010 18939
change +2057
Scarborough & Whitby
1997 19667
2005 19248
2010 21108
change +1441
Selby & Ainsty
1997 22002
2005 22452
2010 25562
change +3560 (bigger seat)
Halifax
1997 16253
2005 13182
2010 14806
change -1447
Its the fall in their own vote that cost the Halifax Conservatives victory.
True. Stuck on 33%. Although the ’97 vote wouldn’t quite have won the seat either. Of course this doesn’t mean there wasn’t fraudulent votes cast but I’d imagine less than 250.
From the local paper:
POLICE have dismissed Conservative allegations of voting fraud in the general election in Halifax after a “comprehensive” investigation.
Officers said they had found “absolutely no evidence of fraud” and concluded “none of the allegations has been found to have any substance” after a four-month probe.
Officers defended their investigation – sparked by allegations from defeated Tory candidate Philip Allott – and said they would again investigate thoroughly if any new evidence comes to light.
Am I right in thinking that the latest “Private Eye” mentions issues concerning the General Election campaign in this seat?
It does indeed. In fact it suggests that perhaps Warsi’s allegations were made to cover up earlier cases of fraud from Conservative councillors in Halifax just days before the last general election!
The swing in Cannock Chase was the highest, but was in an area where there were several seats of 9, 10%.
The council here looks pretty certain to remain NOC but I defy any of you to make an accurate prediction. Perhaps Joseph with your local knowledge you could have a go?
The local state of the parties are:-
Con = 19, LD = 16, Lab = 10, Ind = 4, BNP = 1, IndLib = 1.
Unusually the council is ran by the LD and Labour in coalition which is interesting given the national situation.
I think the council would remain NOC here with Labour gaining Sowerby Bridge from the Tories, and from the LibDems in Todmorden and Warley. The LibDems are also vulnerable from the Tories in Skircoat. Therefore if we take this into account then the balance of power would be:-
Con = 18, Lab = 13, LD = 13, Ind 4, BNP = 1, IndLib = 1.
This is only my guess, as I am less familiar with Calderdale.
Not bad Joseph, all those gains eventuated. There were some close results, with Labour failing comfortably to take Brighouse yet coming pretty close in Rastrick, usually a more Tory town.
2011 Local election results and change on 2010
Halifax
Lab 41.0% (+9.3%)
Con 30.3% (-0.9%)
LD 18.0% (-8.6%)
Oth 10.7% (+0.2%)
Calder Valley
Con 34.5% (+1.8%)
Lab 30.2% (+8.5%)
LD 18.1% (-13.9%)
Oth 17.2% (+3.6%)
Tories profited well from LD fall in Calder Valley, they won 6 of the 9 wards, compared to 2 in 2010 (including a couple of wards that were Independent in 2010, and voted Tory in 2011). Labour went from 0 wards in 2010 to 2 wins in 2011 at Todmorden and Calder (the outer part of this seat).
Are there any reasons why Labour have remained strong in the old Sowerby constituency with wins this year in Todmorden, Calder and Sowerby Bridge but are now much weaker in the old Brighouse & Spenborough constituency?
The proposed boundary changes indicate to me that the inclusion of Hipperholme and Lightcliffe ward into Halifax would likely change the notional winning party in 2010 from Labour to Conservative.
I have seen on the Guardian website the notional worked out on just the Conservative and Labour tally’s being added from this ward to Halifax. I believe that this is unrealistic given the Independent Cllr candidates 2200 votes. I suggest that as there was a general election and local elections simultaneously that a good deal of vote splitting went on in 2010 and given the nature of the area and historical Levels of Labour vote little of it would have gone to the Labour party from the Independent Cllr candidate. The Independent Cllr is a Newsagent and has a very high market saturation of local deliveries in the area.
So the Conservatives would probably be about a thousand ahead of Labour on the redrawn Halifax. However, they would be down more in the Calder Valley Guardian Notional.
I should imagine if someone had the time to work out the Calder valley 2010 result they would notice the Hipperholme and Lightcliffe anomaly re the council elections and notional impacts on Halifax and Calder Valley.
Hipperholme & Lightcliffe 1971 * 2200 Plus votes for Independent.
Brighouse 1371
Rastrick 2574
Elland 1534
Greetland and Stainland 1854
Ryburn 2687
Luddenden Foot 1626
Todmorden 1665
Calder 2775
Total 18057 Tory votes in calder valley for all Tory cllr candidates 2010.
Total Number of votes for Tory MP Calder Valley: 20,397
The proposed Halifax looks like an exciting marginal for 2015.