Guildford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 29618 (53.3%)
Labour: 2812 (5.06%)
Liberal Democrat: 21836 (39.3%)
UKIP: 1021 (1.84%)
Others: 280 (0.5%)
Majority: 7782 (14%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22095 (43.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 22018 (43.3%)
Labour: 5013 (9.9%)
Other: 1691 (3.3%)
Majority: 77 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22595 (43.8%)
Labour: 5054 (9.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 22248 (43.1%)
Green: 811 (1.6%)
UKIP: 645 (1.2%)
Other: 278 (0.5%)
Majority: 347 (0.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19820 (41.4%)
Labour: 6558 (13.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 20358 (42.6%)
UKIP: 736 (1.5%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 538 (1.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24230 (42.5%)
Labour: 9945 (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 19439 (34.1%)
Referendum: 2650 (4.7%)
Other: 694 (1.2%)
Majority: 4791 (8.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Anne Milton(Conservative) born 1955. Educated at Haywards Heath Grammar School and St Barts Hospital, London. Former NHS nurse. Former district council and Conservative group leader on Reigate and Banstead council. Shadow minister for tourism since 2006. First elected as MP for Guildford in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Anne Milton(Conservative) born 1955. Educated at Haywards Heath Grammar School and St Barts Hospital, London. Former NHS nurse. Former district council and Conservative group leader on Reigate and Banstead council. Shadow minister for tourism since 2006. First elected as MP for Guildford in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Tim Shand (Labour) born Edinburgh. Educated at Broughton High School and Glasgow University. Works for an NGO involved in adolescent health and HIV prevention. Contested Glasgow Kelvin for the Green party 2001.
Sue Doughty (Liberal Democrat) born 1948, York. Educated at Mill Mount Grammar School and Northumberland College. Former manager with Thames Water and consultant project manager. Liberal Democrat shadow environment spokesman 2002-2005. Served as MP for Guildford from 2001-2005.
Mazhar Manzoor (UKIP)John Morris (Peace)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97642
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 11.4%
White: 95.5%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 72.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 9%
Graduates 16-74: 32.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.7%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 13.5% (Council: 11.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
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I think Peter is probably right. he oozes common sense doesn’t he……
LD GAIN
CON hold
CON hold
LibDem gain. Maj under 1,000
this grudge match was a major personal triumph for Anne Milton. This seat, like SW Surrey in 2005, has returned to its natural home.
I thought this would be Con held in the event with a better result than the predictions.
but didn’t epect a near 8,000 majority.
More like 2 – 5,000.
Very pleased for Anne Milton, who has given us a lot of help in Richmond and Twickenham Cons.
I find the idea of someone ‘helping Twickenham Cons’ slightly sickening given those people would be working to unseat Vince Cable. I know party politics is what it is but what happens when all the competent MPs get unseated?
Guildford was unchanged boundaries in 1974, so direct comparisons can be made.
1950
Guildford
[E] Conservative win
GRH Nugent Conservative 24,983 55.54%
VG Wilkinson Labour 15,443 34.33%
FH Philpott Liberal 4,552 10.12%
Electorate: 53,499; Turnout: 84.07%;
Majority: 9,540 (21.21%)
1951
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
GRH Nugent Conservative 27,604 63.21%
VG Wilkinson Labour 16,068 36.79%
Electorate: 54,858; Turnout: 79.61%;
Majority: 11,536 (26.42%)
1955
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
GRH Nugent Conservative 27,113 63.20%
GR Bellerby Labour 15,785 36.80%
Electorate: 56,118; Turnout: 76.44%;
Majority: 11,328 (26.41%)
1959
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
GRH Nugent Conservative 27,198 57.54%
GR Bellerby Labour 13,756 29.10%
AR Braybrooke Liberal 6,318 13.37%
Electorate: 58,963; Turnout: 80.17%;
Majority: 13,442 (28.44%)
1964
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
GRH Nugent Conservative 24,277 50.90%
GEH Griffith Labour 13,365 28.02%
CJN Martin Liberal 10,052 21.08%
Electorate: 60,714; Turnout: 78.56%;
Majority: 10,912 (22.88%)
1966
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
DAR Howell Conservative 24,116 50.37%
CEH Thornberry Labour 15,771 32.94%
JR Buchanan Liberal 7,992 16.69%
Electorate: 60,815; Turnout: 78.73%;
Majority: 8,345 (17.43%)
1970
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
DAR Howell Conservative 27,203 55.37%
PB Smith Labour 13,108 26.68%
MJ Walton Liberal 8,822 17.96%
Electorate: 68,219; Turnout: 72.02%;
Majority: 14,095 (28.69%)
February 1974 (unchanged boundaries)
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
DAR Howell Conservative 28,152 48.89%
C Fox Liberal 18,261 31.71%
JE Crow Labour 11,175 19.41%
Electorate: 71,642; Turnout: 80.38%;
Majority: 9,891 (17.18%)
October 1974
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
DAR Howell Conservative 25,564 49.21%
CJ Fox Liberal 14,660 28.22%
RW Harris Labour 11,727 22.57%
Electorate: 72,302; Turnout: 71.85%;
Majority: 10,904 (20.99%)
1979
Guildford
[E] Conservative hold
DA Howell Conservative 31,595 57.25%
PH Blagbrough Labour 11,689 21.18%
H Donnelly Liberal 11,673 21.15%
P Scott Rhodesian Front 232 0.42%
Electorate: 73,251; Turnout: 75.34%;
Majority: 19,906 (36.07%)
I hadn’t realised that Labour came second here as recently as 1979. In good years like 1966 and 1950 Labour must not have been far off carrying the town of Guildford itself.
I wonder what caused this swing of 0.005% to Labour against the trend in 1955
It would not be a total shock for Labour to carry Guildford in a good year as it does have some Council Estates. They used to be able to win 2 (West and North) out of the 4 County Divisions. But they have been eclipsed here by the Liberals.
In 2001 it is possible that Labour carried Hertford town in the General (though not a CC level) which is demographically pretty similar to Guildford (though smaller).
The Labour vote held up well in seats like Guildford in 1979. I think they even got an slight increase in Woking.
In 1979 there wasn’t the tactical voting that has become embedded.
If there was a Labour area in a strong Tory area, it still voted Labour generally.
Clearly Labour was heavily squeezed here in recent years by the LDs, although the Tories have also recovered the position.
Isn’t it more the case that a Guildford council estate in the 1970s was a totally different world from the same estate today, in a way that isn’t necessarily true of Rotherham or wherever? There were a huge number of sales and they’ve risen hugely in value.
I very much doubt these places are populated with massive numbers of habitual tactical voters who have been sat there for thirty years. It’s more a change in the character of the area.
Actual 1979 result:
C – 31,595 (57.25%)
Lab – 11,689 (21.18%)
Lib – 11,673 (21.15%)
Oth – 232 (0.42%)
Notional 1979 result:
C – 31,249 (56.80%)
Lib – 11,819 (21.48%)
Lab – 11,714 (21.29%)
Oth – 235 (0.43%)
Given these figures it’s odd that the Times Guide 1983 didn’t flag up Guildford as a seat where only “minor” boundary changes had taken place, ie. less than 5%. Maybe that was a mistake.
It lost about 3,000 voters to Surrey SW (which was about 4% of the old electorate) and gained about 1,700 back (which represented 2.4% of the new electorate.) I think index of change is measure by adding the two therefore it would 6.4% but in reality 97.6% of the new seat was the same as the old seat
The Tories held Guildford Council this May with an increased majority of 20 seats,
at LD expense.
There has been a Labour revival – they gained a seat in Stoke ward, seems to be a well known former councillor – her colleague, however, lost out on the split votes,
but they did get a second seat, in Westborough.
ith the Labour vote expected to eat into the Lib Dems at the next election, I’d be surprised to see the Lib Dems within 7,000 of winning this seat next time.
To be Frank how Labour do here doesn’t really matter on one level because we will never come close to winning. This is something of a trend with the Tories in particular doing very well where they can gain few more seats
Seats like this were lost in 2001 and won narrowly in 2005 so doing well here is important for the Conservatives and there are plenty of LD southern seats to be gained which require this mix of a recovery in the Labour vote and a direct swing from LD to Conservative. You would not expect relative to 2007 for the Conservatives to be making gains from Labour, but they held up well enough in the battlegrounds which matter. You could equally say that Labour’s best performances were also in areas where they have very little to gain in parliamentary terms eg in Merseyside or Tyne & Wear
‘You could equally say that Labour’s best performances were also in areas where they have very little to gain in parliamentary terms eg in Merseyside or Tyne & Wear’
It used to be the Tories who racked up massive majorities in seats they were never likely toi lose in the first place, with Labour dping best in the areas they needed to do best in – the marginal seats
It’s funny how often politocs goes full circle
I think you’re both right.
Both main parties have shored up their core voter base in the past year (except Labour in Scotland), both partly at the expense of the Lib Dems.
Neither has had much success in appealing to those potential converts from the other side that would be necessary for a majority.
Hence I cannot yet see any evidence that we are going to escape the current polarised stalemate, with the Tories stubbornly ahead of Labour but not by enough to govern alone. Downing Street knows this and is continuing to make noises through the press about the potential continuation of coalition after 2015.
What really does stand out is the underlying weakness of Labour and the complete failure of Miliband to make any impact against the government and to look in any way like an alternative PM. Cameron has dodged every single bullet. If I were a Labour MP I would want Miliband out double quick, before it’s too late.
‘What really does stand out is the underlying weakness of Labour and the complete failure of Miliband to make any impact against the government and to look in any way like an alternative PM. Cameron has dodged every single bullet. If I were a Labour MP I would want Miliband out double quick, before it’s too late.’
That’s part of the reason I’m so surprised at the Labour Party lead in the opinion polls
So long as they top these Miliband seems safe and I don’t see any alternative leader who could do better – as Labour’s brightest MP’s are mostly newcomers
Yes – the current situation is ideal for Cameron – good Tory poll shares and local election results, but Labour holding up well enough to stop them electing a better leader. Similar to Major vs Kinnock in 1990-2, and we all know what happened then.
I agree there isn’t a great field of alternative Labour leaders, but I think Johnson or the other Miliband, even Darling, would certainly have done somewhat better.
It does look about the right balance yes.
Labour are still doing well enough not to put a better leader in place well before the election.
But I do expect the government to have a rougher time in the 2012 elections, and any challenge from Labour atall could be dangerous given this is a minority Con position.
I think the bit of the Labour share that is the lead is soft.
“But I do expect the government to have a rougher time in the 2012 elections”
Do you personally expect Boris to lose the mayoralty?
I think we can hold that.
A good thing that Labour has won some seats here.
(Not just for the cynical view that it weakens the Lib Dems).
I like to see a degree of support for the 2 main parties of government in all areas.
AW’s notionals for this seat have the Conservative majority down to about 6,200. Anne Milton should have no trouble holding on though. This year’s local elections proved that the 2001 result was very much a one-off and I can’t see the Lib Dems making a serious challenge anytime soon. It is still one of the more vulnerable Surrey seats so the Tories do need to keep an eye on it but they don’t need to lose any sleep over it.
As JJB pointed out earlier, Labour have recovered and gained two seats in Stoke and Westborough with the Lib Dems holding the other seats. I’m sure we could gain these two wards outright next time and maybe also pick up some seats in the wards covering the university and town centre.
The wards covering the university and town centre are Friary & St Nicholas and Onslow. Labour won about 15% in these two wards in May which was admittedly about twice as well as they did there in 2007. I think there’s no chance of Labour winning seats in those wards. I don’t know where students are largely based there, but those not in University provided accommodation will probably be in private rented accommodation in the more downmarket areas, which would be Stoke and Westborough
Ah, I see. I guess the Lib Dems will continue to hold onto those wards but I still think we will get Stoke and Westborough out at some point since, as you say, there’s probably a significant student population in those wards.
‘This year’s local elections proved that the 2001 result was very much a one-off and I can’t see the Lib Dems making a serious challenge anytime soon. ‘
I think no one ever seriously believed – even at the time – it was anything other than a one-off blip
People at the time said that Nick St Aubyn (the Tory MP between 1997-2001) took the seat fir granted but I think it was all down to local issues – specifically something about an incinerator that the Lib Dems opposed being in Guildford
As with Kidderminster & Stourport – this was one constituency in which local politocs came to the forefront – and it’s the only explanation for such an unexpected result
Tories do need to keep up the work here.
The 2010 result was a very good one for the Tories but we’d be very wrong to assume it’s safe, even with the Lib Dems low in the opinion polls.
But I don’t think we are.