Great Yarmouth
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18571 (43.13%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6188 (14.37%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Green: 416 (0.97%)
Others: 100 (0.23%)
Majority: 4276 (9.93%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 18850 (45.6%)
Conservative: 15795 (38.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4585 (11.1%)
Other: 2148 (5.2%)
Majority: 3055 (7.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15780 (39.1%)
Labour: 20344 (50.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3392 (8.4%)
UKIP: 850 (2.1%)
Majority: 4564 (11.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17416 (35.6%)
Labour: 26084 (53.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5381 (11.0%)
Majority: 8668 (17.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Brandon Lewis (Conservative) born 1971, Harold Wood. Educated at the University of Buckingham. Barrister and company director. Councillor in Brentwood since 1998 and leader of Brentwood Council since 2004. Contested Sherwood in 2001.
Brandon Lewis (Conservative) born 1971, Harold Wood. Educated at the University of Buckingham. Barrister and company director. Councillor in Brentwood since 1998 and leader of Brentwood Council since 2004. Contested Sherwood in 2001.Anthony D Wright(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Simon Partridge (Liberal Democrat) North Norfolk councillor.Laura Biggart (Green)Alan Baugh (UKIP) Bosco Tann (BNP) Margaret McMahon-Morris (Lawfulness Trustworthiness and Transparency)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90810
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.6%
Over 60: 25.4%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.6%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.2%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 18% (Council: 15.4%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 8.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12%
Tim
I am glad you reminded me of the Euro election result when UKIP came second nationally to the Conservatives. Do I believe that, if the people of this country can hold their collective nerve and vote for what they really want rather than to keep out or get out this or that Lib/Lab/Con EuroParty representative, UKIP can do very well, and in Great Yarmouth can win. We must always remember that many supporters of the “traditional parties” are very unhappy with this “rotten parliament” and its relationship [rather unequal] with its EU masters.
Although being politically biased. Many people in my area are starting to recognise Brandon Lewis. He seems very hardworking, and has spearheaded a superb local campaign to force the rail franchise operator to make much needed improvements to our railway station.
Labour have been virtually wiped out in the last few years at a local level. This is bound to impact their ability to fight a campaign on the scale of that of the Conservatives.
I wont even get into Mr Wrights record on expenses. He is most certainly toast here. I predict a bigger swing to the Tories, than that is achieved at a national level. Any predictions from some of the more experienced election watchers would be appreciated!!
‘We must always remember that many supporters of the “traditional parties” are very unhappy with this “rotten parliament” and its relationship [rather unequal] with its EU masters.’
That’s true Alan but let’s not forget those UKIP members of the European parliament who did more than fiddle their expenses
I am of course referring to Ashley Mote and Tom Wise, who make the likes of Hazel Blears, Magaret Moran and Anthony Stein look like saints
Your essentially right – people are disgusted at ‘rotten’ Parliament but given the above I wouldn’t agree that a vote for UKIP is the best way to express that disgust
“Labour have been virtually wiped out in the last few years at a local level.”
That’s something of an exaggeration, Yarmouth Tory. They currently have 15 seats on Great Yarmouth Borough Council to the Tories’ 24. This is no worse than they have fared across much of the country and better than in many areas.
The Tories are fairly strong favourites here, but I think you’re overstating the position and I expect Yarmouth to remain something of a bellweather.
There is a bit of ramping up here (although I accept the Tories are favourites in the constituency), and some very partisan stuff. The UKIP chappie – please don’t use this site to canvass. It’s not what this site if for.
I’m never sure why people do canvass here.. its hardly the most reliable source of the floating voter.
(I went to Great Yarmouth on Holiday when I was 6, and have not returned, so I’ll sit back and watch this thread)
Tim,
One of the great mysteries for me of last year’s Euro elections was how UKIP got away with so little scrutiny over Mote and Wise. …But since they did, I am guessing the story is now dead.
Possibly because they were chucked out of the party years ago and were consequently not candidates, or even activists, at the most recent set of elections. Indeed in Mote’s case Farage had at the time (2007) condemned the court that sent him down for not giving him a harsher sentence.
watching this thread with some interest. Although I agree that the most likely outcome is a tory win (though not with my vote) I would like to ask Tim Jones “if not UKIP then with whom should I register my disgust at the current crop of rip off merchants at westminster”? also after Kieran’s explanation how many have been expelled by the lib’lab’con?
Now lets not forget UKIP have hardly made a good job of representing us in Europe, they recently had an MPE who has served a sentence for benefit fraud.
With regards to expenses, their leader blows any MP out of the water, Nigel Farage has admitted to taking over £2million of expenses on top of his salary and they have let Britain down.
They voted to allow Spanish fisherman in to our waters, for more EU redtape and against freetrade.
So please Mr Baugh, please dont try and portray UKIP as a credible choice for power in any seat anywhere!
Our policy on fishing is freely available we, if elected, take back control of our territorial waters extending to 12 nautical miles from the maritime baseline. Under the Law of thge sea convention (UNCLOS) take sovereign control of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extending to 200 miles from the maritime baseline [or half of the distance to a neighbour state]
We will halt the indefensible practice of dumping edible fish. revive and renew a sustainable British fishing industry.
Not only is this a credible choice it is, in my opinion, the only real choice to the current situation. It would also return £2.5Billion to our national economy.
And. Before anyone takes a pop – I am only answering Anons point!!
PS: Have you researched how much is claimed by other MEP’s?
Cons Gain= 2,000 maj
Bosco Tann is selected as the BNP candidate here.
Since 1997 Great yarmouth has sunk in a deep pool of 20 different languages, no tourism, violent crimes,divided communities & the local MP taking our money from the public purse.
Mr Right Wing, tourism is worth 450 million to 500 million pounds to Great Yarmouths local economy thanks to the Conservative Borough Council.
Violent crime however as you say is up, unemployment here is well above the national average. This is because our Labour MP Mr Wright has made such a bad job of showing the rest of the country what Yarmouth has to offer that nobody is aware of its fantastic assets like the outer harbour even exist!
Yarmouth desperately needs a change and if Conservative Candidate Brandon Lewis works even half as hard as an MP, as he does to get elected he will make an excellent MP for the town.
£460 million tourism is worth to the town and accounts for 30% of local employment.
I agree its time for a change and hopefully the yarmouth people will vote for it in Alan Bough and UKIP.
The party has really caught my eye on the policies concerning immigration, crime, justice and unemployment.
Whatever happens i hope for me, you and the rest of the constituency Mr. Wright is gone after the election.
CON 5000
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Con Gain
Maj 2100
Con maj 3,000
Well from the latest opinion polls it looks very much like a hung parliamnet will be the result of this election. But who will form the coalition.
My guess is Labour and Liberal
Would not be so sure that the polls will stay this way. I can see the Liberal bubble bursting once their policies go under the media microscope.
Most of the UK is euro-sceptic ( and so it should be! ) and I think most people would find their plans to join the Euro, a federal europe and have an illegal immigrant amnesty abhorent.
Did anyone see the debate between the local candidates in Gorleston?
Lib Dems could not be bothered to turn up, the Greens sounded absolutely potty – suggesting wearing a cross is offensive – and Tony Wright looked desolate and forlorn. He even relied on a small group of his supporters to make childish woops and cheers which were quickly put down by the host.
Brandon Lewis was quite clearly on top with a reasonably assured performance from Alan Baugh, prattled on far too much about Europe though!
Yes, I don’t think voters wanting change here will be voting Lib Dem or Green!
Brandon Lewis has apparently been working harder on local issues the last 3.5 years – before he’s even getting paid for it! – than Tony Wright, the M.P. who refuses to pay the taxpayer £10,000 back for his over-claimed expenses.
Just look at Brandon Lewis and Tony Wright’s websites – it’s quite revealing as to who actually has been busy.
CON GAIN
“before he’s even getting paid for it”
Perhaps he has been on a retainer from Lord Ashcroft?
Same majority (% wise) as in 1992.
Any chance someone could change the colour of Great Yarmouth to blue on the swingometer map please? It shows the results for Greater Grimsby at present.
Nobody quite guessed the result eh? Most underestimated how many people wanted change in Great Yarmouth it would seem…
Interesting by-election this week in the St Andrews ward which is a Con/Lab marginal.
2011 result:
Lab 621, Con 567
2008 result:
Con 619, Lab 370
Labour won by 21 votes, 424 to 403.
Delighted to see that UKIP are contesting all available seats in forthcomming local elections. Best of luck you guys
Great Yarmouth is the armpit of the universe. An area that has been more badly served by both Conservative and Labour governements would be hard to find. Economically it is probably the most depressed place in SE England (and the handful of northerners on this site may be surprised to note that ther are quirte substantial areas depressed in SE England).
This is an obvious place therfore for a local revolt against national parties. I have no time for UKIP, but this is a place where they could easily make progress given a bit of effort.
I play pool quite frequently for my county/league team at the Vauxhall caravan park. I am always struck by how run down the place is – yet it always strikes me as a place which, if given the right investment, could prosper.
I should clarify my post above – I meant Great Yarmouth in general, rather than just the Caravan Park.
Yarmouth seems to be a slightly forgotten town. I can’t remember ever having seen or heard it mentioned on the news for any reason whatsoever.
Funnily enough this constituency came up last night in a conversation in the pub. I am quite friendly with Cllr Paul Lynch (Hounslow, Chiswick Riverside, Con) and he mentioned his friend Robert Kinghorn who died a few years ago, having contested Norwich North for the Conservatives in either 1997 & 2001 (can’t remember which). I wondered if he was in any way related to Ernest Kinghorn, who was Labour MP for this constituency (which was in those days more confined to the town itself, I think) from 1945 to 1951? Maybe someone here knows?
Interesting seeing the mention of Cllr Lynch – a name that sends shivers down my spine as he said some rather unsavoury things about a tribunal case involving my mother…! I assume he’s a nicer chap in “real life” than the persona he has appeared to cultivate!
Re: Great Yarmouth – I guess it is symptomatic of a lot of the coastal towns in terms of deprivation and neglect – see also the likes of Margate and Hastings.
Southend has managed to thrive despite the shift away from ‘holidays by the seaside’ but Jason is right, Yarmouth is suffering from the same lack of investment as many seaside towns.
I hope Brandon Lewis does his best to attract money into the town.
I think the suggestion that Southend has “thrived” is somwhat of an exaggeration. The town has considerable problems, but it is large enough and close enough to London to have some defensive strength, which Yarmouth doesn’t. Southend Council (under Conservative leadership) has tried very hard to improve things in an unfavourable climate, and has pissed off quite a few traditional Tories in the process.
The point made above by Andy JS is true and very symptomatic. One feels that the last journalist to visit Yarmouth was probably in the 1980s. I feel really sorry for the inhabitants of the town.
‘Southend has managed to thrive despite the shift away from ‘holidays by the seaside’ but Jason is right, Yarmouth is suffering from the same lack of investment as many seaside towns.’
When I think of the most run-down seaside resorts Southend and Yarmouth are up there (should that be down there) with Hastings, Margate, Rhyl and Blackpool
Unlike in the other towns though, the Tory vote has held up well in Southend – and its two Parliamentary constituencies are safely Conservative even in good Labour years like 97 and 2001
I always found this something of a surprise, despite its location
2015
Con 40
Lab 39
UKIP 8
LD 8
others 4
conservative hold
Turnout 63%
I have huge faith in Peter Kellner and that Britain will remain in the EU.
Lara Norris has been selected for the Conservatives.
“Lara Norris has been selected for the Conservatives.”
She has been selected – but for Labour.