Gravesham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22956 (48.53%)
Labour: 13644 (28.84%)
Liberal Democrat: 6293 (13.3%)
UKIP: 2265 (4.79%)
Green: 675 (1.43%)
English Democrat: 1005 (2.12%)
Independent: 465 (0.98%)
Majority: 9312 (19.69%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 19739 (43.7%)
Labour: 19085 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4851 (10.7%)
Other: 1504 (3.3%)
Majority: 654 (1.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16911 (38.8%)
Labour: 21773 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4031 (9.2%)
UKIP: 924 (2.1%)
Majority: 4862 (11.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20681 (38.8%)
Labour: 26460 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4128 (7.8%)
Referendum: 1441 (2.7%)
Other: 543 (1%)
Majority: 5779 (10.9%)
No Boundary Changes: Gravesham remains coterminous with Gravesham Borough Council.
Profile: A seat in North-West Kent. Gravesend itself is a Labour stronghold, it is one of the poorer towns in Kent with the largest proportion of ethnic minorities and the highest proportion of council housing of any of the Kent constituencies. Like other areas in North Kent the area is undergoing large scale development, including in the Ebsfleet valley to the West of Gravesend, close to the planned channel raillink station, and in the run-down industrial area of Northfleet along the Thames waterfront.Labour voting Gravesend is balanced out by the Southern part of the constituency, south of the A2, which is made up of picturesque (and solidly Conservative) villages and hamlets such as Cobham, Sole Street and Meopham.
Until 2005 Gravesham was the classic bellwether seat – it had been won by the party that went on to form the government at every general election since World War One with the exceptions of 1929 and 1951 – and in both of those cases Gravesend was won by the party that got the largest national share of the vote. In 2005 the trend was broken as Gravesham fell to the Conservatives, leaving Dartford, Chorley or one of the Luton seats as the most reliable bellwethers.
Current MP: Adam Holloway (Conservative) born 1965. Educated at Cambridge University and Imperial College. A former Grenadier Guards Officer, seeing service in the Gulf War, and television journalist. Worked for Newsnight, ITN and World In Action, including living homeless for three months as part of the “No Fixed Abode” series. First elected for Gravesham in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Adam Holloway (Conservative) born 1965. Educated at Cambridge University and Imperial College. A former Grenadier Guards Officer, seeing service in the Gulf War, and television journalist. Worked for Newsnight, ITN and World In Action, including living homeless for three months as part of the “No Fixed Abode” series. First elected for Gravesham in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Kathryn Smith (Labour) born 1959. Public affairs consultant. Member of the Co-op national baord. Bexley councillor 1994-2006. Contested Merton and Wandsworth in 2004 London elections.
Anna Arrowsmith (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Martins School of Art. Porn director.
Richard Crawford (Green) Postman.
Geoffrey Clark (UKIP)
Steven Uncles (English Democrat) Born 1964, Blackheath. Educated at Chislehurst and Sidcup Grammar School. Business consultant. Contested South East region in 2004 European elections region. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst by-election 2006. Contested South Wales West 2007 Welsh elections. Contested Londonwide list in 2008 London elections. Contested South East region in 2009 European elections.
Alice Sakura Dartnell (Independent) Born Gravesend. Educated at Gravesend Grammar and Sheffield University. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95717
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 24.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 89.5%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 8.2%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 72.3%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.8%
Sikh: 6.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.5%
Social Housing: 18.8% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 2.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
The massive increase in the numerical Tory vote in 1979 is amazing. Labour had consistently got just under 30k votes and the Tories had never exceeded 30k until 1979 when they did so with 37k.
Thanks Anthony for the details.
As a West Londoner, I find this view of the Thames very intriguing.
The 1979 result is pretty incredible – perhaps the increase in population in the 1960s in outlying areas didn’t really pay dividends for the Tories until 1979?
On the Decision 79 program which of course was repeated this May, Tim Brinton was interviewed in the morning saying more or less “I was certain I was going to win by 1 or more because I fought it assuming I would lose” or something very similar.
The 480 route is one of the busiest in the former London Country area (which used to be part of the London Transport operating area, with the green buses). Running along the industrial corridoor of North Kent.
In 2003, when a temperature of 100 degrees was recorded at Gravesend,
the Labour leader of the council claimed credit for the good weather.
I suspect many people would not regard that sort of weather as ‘good’.
Actually I agree –
don’t like it more than about 25 “degrees”.
What areas were in Gravesham in 1979 that are no longer in the seat?
The rural area to the South East which I think goes all the way down to the west of the Medway –
so this must be near Strood (but not Strood itself).
I think it must have been about 20,000 – maybe 25,000 electorate.
It was of course, Gravesend, in 1979,
a much more sensible name for the LA in my opinion.
The Tory vote was up about 10,000 in 1979. I thought that might have been partly due to a big increase in the electorate but actually it was only up slightly from 87 to 88 thousand.
I presume the town of Gravesend was of course in the constituency of the same name from 1885 to 1983 when the Gravesham seat was created?
Yes,
I heard Adam giving a speech in the Commons about a year ago.
He’s a very intelligent guy and certainly a rising star in politics. Gravesham are very lucky to have him as their MP.
I wish he was a Labour MP instead of a Tory!! lol
What’s Adam Holloway MP doing employing disgraced former Tory Westminster councillor Michael Vearncombe as his “parliamentary director”?
http://www.adamholloway.co.uk/MeetTeamHolloway.htm
Vearncombe resigned as a councillor and was jailed for a year in 2007 for embezzling over 90,000 pounds from his neighbours, many of them elderly
http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/evening-standard-london-uk/mi_8010/is_20071211/shopaholic-councillor-stole-pounds-90000/ai_n40199877/
It says on Mr Holloway’s website that crime is his number one priority and the biggest issue in Gravesham
http://www.adamholloway.co.uk/about.htm
That doesn’t seem to apply to his choice of staff. Strange behaviour for an MP in such a marginal seat.
TEST
The Lib Dems have selected Douglas Taylor as their new candidate
Did anyone catch the UKIP talk last saturday?
The LibDems have chosen “adult interest movie” director Anna Arrowsmith
So what happened to Douglas Taylor?
No idea, he is still showing as the PPC on the Lib Dems website – she is the 3rd candidate for this seat!
I will try to do as much research into her work as I can in the run up to the election
Ms Arrowsmith is getting publicity out of all proportion to her chances of being elected.
I suspect that most people won’t bother much about the Liberal Democrat candidate’s career, but some will be vehemently against it and therefore not vote for her. There will be others who are perhaps amused or even intrigued, but this reaction will not be strong enough to gain her votes. So on balance I think, purely from the psephological perspective, that the controversial LibDem candidate represents a bad move for them.
At a national level I suppose that one could argue that more or less any publicity is good publicity, for LibDem brand recognition, and the LibDems were never going to do particularly well in this seat.
“I will try to do as much research into her work as I can in the run up to the election”
Your diligence does you much credit. Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, and perhaps most especially your indefatigability.
lol Sir Norfolk
Barnaby is correct in what he says… but to have a candidate in an unwinnable seat discussed on question time is sometime of a publicity coup for the local party, which could even add 500-2000 votes to the party’s total
For every disapproving voter I bet there will be three who will ‘notice’ her candidature who wouldn’t have considered the LiDems here otherwise.
To credit Andrew Lansley he made no fuss over this situation on QT.. which is just as well considering the number of bankers who are probably standing as conservatives, and I don’t think that section of society are so credible these days..
(BTW ChrisInTheNorth has never seen an ‘Arrowsmith’ production and doesn’t intend to seek one out)
Has Northfleet been in Gravesend from 1885 to 1983 and this seat since then?
It must have been Harry. Northfleet was always Labour’s strongest part of the Gravesend/Gravesham constituency and without it it’s doubtful Labour would have won it except conceivably in 1945.
Cons Hold= 6,500 maj
Con Hold
Maj 4200
There are signs that the Greens are doing comparatively well in university seats, a category that includes this seat.
Sorry, cancel my last comment. I meant to post it on the Lancaster thread. I don’t actually know about green prospects here. Perhaps somebody local can give us some information as to how they are doing in Gravesham.
Con maj 6,500
This is the seat where the supposed mastermind of the English Democrats’ national strategy is standing.
One wheeze he had a few months ago was to get all EDP candidates to promise to give half their salaries to a local organisation if elected – he chose a sports club. He thought this was a great idea until people outside the party started pointing out this is called bribery and could get his candidates put in prison. Is he still promising to give the money away if you vote for him?
This is one of the very many seats that went conservative because Labour and and LIbDems split the left and let a minority candidate get elected. Voting reform – proportional elections, runoffs, or instant runoffs – are needed to insure that the majority get their say. In my country (USA) we are hostages to a two party system that guarantees big goverment and stifles the voice of the people. In the UK (and Canada) you could have a viable multi party system if you took back your democracy from the forces of the status quo.
Labour candidate here arrested for drink driving.
It’s not Labour’s day, is it?
OUCH.
That’s going to take a bit of getting over …
I was about to predict the Con maj would be limited to 4000 here but given the news above from Neil, maybe that will stretch to 7000
CON HOLD
This is another seat that I think is now the safest that it has been for ANY party since 1931!
Shaun – I’m a Labour supporter but I’m actually glad that Adam Holloway held the seat with a huge majority. I’ve heard him speak in the Commons a few times and he is a very intelligent man and really knows his stuff. The people of Gravesham are very lucky to have him as their MP.
I’ve never seen or heard him. But then again, the BBC doesn’t really show parliamentary coverage anymore unless you want to sit through blow by blow coverage on BBC Parliament.
Still, nice to see that he’s so good. Having won the seat unexpectedly in 2005 (breaking the seats record as a bell-weather) and now with the biggest percentage majority since 1931, he must be well placed to hold on perhaps even narrowly if Labour recover enough to win an election. Certainly, Gravesham’s record as one of the best bell-weather’s in the country is now well and truely broken.
The Tory share will be only around 1 point below 1992 here.
A poor result for Labour.
They should have retained at least 33% here.
It does seem to have deviated from being a bellwhether, but it remains to be seen if this is temporary.
Is not this the most ethnically diverse constituency in South East England?
No, can’t be.
relatively high for Kent.
Slough is usually deemed to be in south-east England, but the SE could also mean the counties to the south-east of London.
Even then it would be trumped by Crawley. It is the highest in Kent certainly
I apologise to Peter Crerar,
he predicted the Tories would win by nearly 10,000 and he was close.
I dismissed it as a “Plopwell” type prediction.
I’m still unclear why there was this very large swing in Kent, which Pete Whitehead also partly predicted.
Gravesham has a ethnic population because the area was directly opposite Tilbury docks. Such as the Sikh community. As it is now about forty years since the P&O and Orient Line liners used Tilbury, this presumably means that this is one of the longer established communities in Kent, given the large number of non-Kentish incomers to West Kent in particular.
The Sikh community is a good deal more Kentish than the many recent incomers from non-European developed countires who commute from places like Sevenoaks and Tonbridge and who take the well-paid jobs that should be going to our graudates: the idea that people with Masters degrees should get visas more or less automatically is ludicrously outdated in the current employment climate.
The South East region gerrymander, as I have posted numerous times on this site, was ludicrous and the ConDem abolition of the regional body in Guildford is one of the better things they have done, althought my personal view if that to avoid economic depression they need far more proactive enouragement of economic development (which is emphatically not the same as old fashioned corporatism or socialism) on a non-regional basis Parties wanting electoral popluarity in Kent would do well to ensure that the civil service are stopped from using the ridiculous South East unit of analysis for statistical or adminstrative purposes either (and ideally therefore that the overlarge, again gerrymandered, South East European constituency is also broken up – even if I would regret the likelihood that this would cost Green representation). Compared to resions, and indeed countries, elsewhere in Europe Kent, a former independent Kingdom long ago, is quite big enough to be treated on its own as a regional unit within the United Kingdom.
Kent has little more in common with Slough or Oxford than it has, say, with Oldham or Durham.
I have repeatedly posted about why there was a large swing in Kent. Basically:-
1. Labour organisation in the area was a shambles.
2. Labour policy actively discriminated against Kent. Notably, Labour denied Kent investment in transport infrastructure, when our roads and railways are bursting to the seams, whilst spending money on half-empty railways etc. in their heartland areas. And please excuse me, I am not wanting to be particularly hostile to the Scots (I went to niversity in Scotland), but some of the most glaring examples are there. Eg. bridge tolls have been abolished in Scotland whilst they are contiued at Dartford even though the capital costs have been paid off, and minor rail routes , used to nothing like capacity, between Edinburgh and Glasgow are being electrified in advance of the European games, whilst extension of Crossrail to Abbey Wood looks unlikely to happen.
Incidentally, Ed Miliband took up the fromt page of “Kent on Sunday” this week promising that Labour would try to regain seats in Kent. I’ll believe this when it happens, not just because of past Labour history but because the party managers are going to see that there is no seat in Kent in the top hundred of Labour’s target list. AV and redistribution are unlikely to change this situation much. After all the Toreis were near enough 50% here that they would clearly have won if AV had been in operation. And of course their are now no Labour MPs to argue the county’s case in a party which even more than others appears addicted to pork-barrel weheeling and dealing.
Labour’s neglect of Kent was glaringly obvious even before the General Election, even to less savvy psephologists than Pete Whitehead.
This seat, and the constituencies in Kent along the Thames in Kent as far as Sheppey, are far from natural Tory territory. But none of the parties that stood against the Conservatives here and nearby have anything like a credible platform for future advance. There appears to be a big political vacuum in which the Conservatives are by a considerable way regarded by electors as the least bad alternative.