Gower
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16786 (42.5%)
Conservative: 10083 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7291 (18.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 3089 (7.8%)
Other: 2293 (5.8%)
Majority: 6703 (17%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10083 (25.5%)
Labour: 16786 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7291 (18.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 3089 (7.8%)
Green: 1029 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1264 (3.2%)
Majority: 6703 (17%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10281 (27.5%)
Labour: 17676 (47.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4507 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 3865 (10.3%)
Green: 607 (1.6%)
Other: 417 (1.1%)
Majority: 7395 (19.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10306 (23.8%)
Labour: 23313 (53.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5624 (13%)
Plaid Cymru: 2226 (5.1%)
Referendum: 1745 (4%)
Other: 122 (0.3%)
Majority: 13007 (30%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Martin Caton (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Byron Davies (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 74365
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 21.1%
Over 60: 25.5%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 75.7%
Full time students: 3.4%
Graduates 16-74: 22.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.7%
Owner-Occupied: 79.3%
Social Housing: 12.2% (Council: 10%, Housing Ass.: 2.2%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.2%
Gower is an interesting seat. Agree with others that whilst it has not been won by Tories in recent history, the serious fight to win this seat has been prompted by the excellent result acheived at the Assembly Elections in May 2007. Whilst on paper it seems that Labour might not be expecting a strong challenge in this seat, there are significant areas of new “executive” housing in the northern parts of the constituency which is tipping the balance our way…but it is a very tight balance and whoever wins/holds this seat it’s not going to be by much.
Trouble is, René, ‘your way’ was different before June 2006 to after it.
On current UK opinion polls, this seat looks highly marginal. Opinion often swings differently in Wales but, from previous comments, more recent Welsh results suggest much the same swing.
In the circulstances, a lot will depend here on demographic change, local issues, and the effectiveness of local political organizations before and during the General Election. More information on these things from people in the area would be helpful.
If Labour lose this seat, they will be in trouble. But then all the economic and polling indicators at the present time suggest that they are in trouble.
The Tories should indeed win here one day, because the area is changing. But it isn’t the most likely result next time.
2009/2010 Most likely
Lab 17,302 41.0% -1.5%
Con 13,968 33.1% +7.6%
LD 4,515 10.7% -7.7%
Pl C 4,431 10.5% +2.7%
Green 1,182 2.8% +0.2%
UKIP 802 1.9% -1.3%
Lab majority 3,334 7.9%
Total votes 42,200
LAB HOLD
Swing 4.6% from Lab to Con
In the local elections the Tories polled 24.28% and Labour 21.43 with Independents polling 29.91.
i think the tories will abandon Swansea West and Swansea East, piling all there resources from the area into this seat and that will win them the seat.
Labour will have there resources stretched by trying to fight off the Lib Dems in neighbouring Swansea West where they will probably fail as well.
On Clwyd South we have been discussing the over-representation of Wales at Westminster - a problem whose acuteness I was not hitherto fully aware.
If Wales were to be represented in the same proportion as England it would have 33 MPs not 40. West Glamorgan should have four not five.
Were that to happen this seat might be the likeliest casualty. With the two ‘inner city’ wards of Castle and Townhill moving from Swansea West to Swansea East, the whole of the Gower peninsula (up to Gowerton) would be added to Swansea West. All this territory was included in the Swansea city area even before the reorganisation of the 1990s.
The other part of this seat - the industrial northern part around Gorseinon etc formed a seperate authority of Lliw valley previously. These 30,000 or so electors would be linked with the bulk of the Neath constituency with the excess from there being used to bring Aberavon up to strength.
The result of this would be that Swansea West would become a very credible Tory target and would certainly be a three-way marginal on current form.
Welsh Speaking% 20.4%
I believe it was the transfer of The Mumbles in 74 or 83 (from Swansea West to The Gower) which contributed to the former Tory seat of Swansea West becoming out of reach for ever and the traditionally ultra Labour seat of Gower becoming more Tory.
Pete’s write to suggest that were ‘Swansea West & Gower’ to be merged (losing Labour territory from West to Swansea East and Labour territory from Gower to Neath) that a Tory prospect would be created!!!
The ICM poll today (03/10/08) of marginal seats is interpreted by Tony Wells as suggesting that the Conservatives, as things stand in terms of the relative popularity of the parties, will gain 164 setas from Labour. Conservative target 165 is the special case, because of the by-election, of Crewe and Nantwich. The implication is that in theory this, as Conservative target 166, is the most marginal seat Labour can expect to save on the current state of the opinion polls, when factors specifically affecting marginal seats are taken into account.
On the other hand, both comments on this seat and the recent Populus Home poll of marginals suggest that there may be a higher than average Labour to Conservative swing in Wales.
There is nothing to change the view of myself and others some months ago that the result in this seat is likely to be very close at the next election.
Gower will be close. The Tories are very visible here. Their candidate has fought the seat before and has a strong media presence. Martin Caton has a good reputation as a principled rebel but how many voters follow the “form” of candidates, incumbent or otherwise.
Gower has been slowly moving towards the Conservatives over the past few elections. I’m not bold enough to predict a Conservative gain this time but whoever wins will do so with a mere 3-figure majority.
Too close to call.
The Conservatives will do well to win here. I spend lots of time in the Gower at weekends (including today on the beach!). They have a core vote of ~10,000 and there would have to be a total ’sea change’ in voter intentions for them to win.
That being said, anything can happen given the current climate!
Labours Gower core support base of tribal die hards is diminishing by the day. The cause? Natural voter wastage, disappearing linkage, memories and loyalties to the Labour/union movement(s) of old. The heavily industrialised historical past of nationalised industries etc with undeniable strong Labour Party/union links is fast becoming a distant memory.
The archetypical heavily Labourite/unionised ex miner type voter whom would vote for a red rosette wearing monkey is declining in number and is now being replaced by a upwardly mobile, more discerning, less tribal, non class war person/voter whom has no particular links or strong loyalties to any political party. To put it in a nutshell bad news of Labour!
Add to that the disastrous economic situation and disgraceful debacle of Westminster sleaze and you get a very probable Conservative win in Gower come the next general election.
Jack - I think that you have just explained the rationale behind some of my comments on the South Wales constituency sections