Gower is an interesting seat. Agree with others that whilst it has not been won by Tories in recent history, the serious fight to win this seat has been prompted by the excellent result acheived at the Assembly Elections in May 2007. Whilst on paper it seems that Labour might not be expecting a strong challenge in this seat, there are significant areas of new “executive” housing in the northern parts of the constituency which is tipping the balance our way…but it is a very tight balance and whoever wins/holds this seat it’s not going to be by much.

On current UK opinion polls, this seat looks highly marginal. Opinion often swings differently in Wales but, from previous comments, more recent Welsh results suggest much the same swing.

In the circulstances, a lot will depend here on demographic change, local issues, and the effectiveness of local political organizations before and during the General Election. More information on these things from people in the area would be helpful.

If Labour lose this seat, they will be in trouble. But then all the economic and polling indicators at the present time suggest that they are in trouble.

In the local elections the Tories polled 24.28% and Labour 21.43 with Independents polling 29.91.
i think the tories will abandon Swansea West and Swansea East, piling all there resources from the area into this seat and that will win them the seat.
Labour will have there resources stretched by trying to fight off the Lib Dems in neighbouring Swansea West where they will probably fail as well.

On Clwyd South we have been discussing the over-representation of Wales at Westminster - a problem whose acuteness I was not hitherto fully aware.
If Wales were to be represented in the same proportion as England it would have 33 MPs not 40. West Glamorgan should have four not five.
Were that to happen this seat might be the likeliest casualty. With the two ‘inner city’ wards of Castle and Townhill moving from Swansea West to Swansea East, the whole of the Gower peninsula (up to Gowerton) would be added to Swansea West. All this territory was included in the Swansea city area even before the reorganisation of the 1990s.
The other part of this seat - the industrial northern part around Gorseinon etc formed a seperate authority of Lliw valley previously. These 30,000 or so electors would be linked with the bulk of the Neath constituency with the excess from there being used to bring Aberavon up to strength.
The result of this would be that Swansea West would become a very credible Tory target and would certainly be a three-way marginal on current form.

I believe it was the transfer of The Mumbles in 74 or 83 (from Swansea West to The Gower) which contributed to the former Tory seat of Swansea West becoming out of reach for ever and the traditionally ultra Labour seat of Gower becoming more Tory.

Pete’s write to suggest that were ‘Swansea West & Gower’ to be merged (losing Labour territory from West to Swansea East and Labour territory from Gower to Neath) that a Tory prospect would be created!!!

The ICM poll today (03/10/08) of marginal seats is interpreted by Tony Wells as suggesting that the Conservatives, as things stand in terms of the relative popularity of the parties, will gain 164 setas from Labour. Conservative target 165 is the special case, because of the by-election, of Crewe and Nantwich. The implication is that in theory this, as Conservative target 166, is the most marginal seat Labour can expect to save on the current state of the opinion polls, when factors specifically affecting marginal seats are taken into account.

On the other hand, both comments on this seat and the recent Populus Home poll of marginals suggest that there may be a higher than average Labour to Conservative swing in Wales.

There is nothing to change the view of myself and others some months ago that the result in this seat is likely to be very close at the next election.