Gordon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9111 (18.68%)
Labour: 9811 (20.11%)
Liberal Democrat: 17575 (36.03%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.43%)
Green: 752 (1.54%)
Majority: 6748 (13.83%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20008 (45%)
Labour: 8982 (20.2%)
Conservative: 7842 (17.6%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Other: 508 (1.1%)
Majority: 11026 (24.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8049 (23%)
Labour: 4730 (13.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15928 (45.5%)
SNP: 5760 (16.5%)
Other: 534 (1.5%)
Majority: 7879 (22.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11002 (26%)
Labour: 4350 (10.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 17999 (42.6%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Referendum: 459 (1.1%)
Majority: 6997 (16.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Malcolm Bruce(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Ross Thomson (Conservative) Barney Crockett (Labour)Malcolm Bruce(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Richard Thomson (SNP) Sue Edwards (Green) Elise Jones (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89320
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 60.1%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.1% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
#Kieran W
No doubt DEWI will return with his own comments.
I am not sure I would agree that the LibDems in Scotland are now more unionist than the Tories but they are certainly more unionist than they used to be.
We have their leader Tavish Scott quite literally declaring that they are a unionist party.
They have therefore positioned themselves as such, are opposed to a referendum, and in essence are the third unionist party rather than a second Home Rule party.
If the LibDems in Scotland are to survive in any meaningful way they will have to change their attitude to the referendum before the 2011 election.
Realistically they need to change before 2010 but won’t.
I suppose it’s actually quite difficult to define what is the most unionist position a party could take in the context of modern Scottish politics. A reversion to the status quo ante pre-1997 would be pretty unionist, but us clearly politically impossible.
My view is that a perfectly rational unionist case could be made for supporting greater powers for the Scottish Parliament and/or a referendum on independence in the near future. If Scottish unionism is seen to be perpetually just defending the last redoubt against any further devolution of power from Westminster then I could see it declining in relevance in the not too distant future.
Now that the Scottish Greens have put a candidate forward on an Anti Trump ticket, how does everyone feel this may effect the vote?
Aberdeenshire Council are viewed with a lot of disdain in the area, and thats a LibDem/SNP administration isn’t it? So this could help the Tories, or even Labour?
Interesting to see how so few people actually understand the Gordon seat, it covers both aberdeenshire and aberdeen council areas both of which have hugely unpopular lib dem administrations with the snp taking a bit of a kicking in the city part of the constituency thanks to their participation in the council administration.
Labout actually finished second at the last election in what was a particularly dificult year for the party and in a constituency with no history of labour representation.
So the preiction of Peter Crerar is so wide of the mark that it makes an snp budget look plausable.
The holyrood gordon seat is now represented by alex salmond but only follows the boundry of the westminister seat in name and not in the boundries but it does show that there is a sizable snp vote out there.
So with Unpopular lib dem councils they are highly at risk, but Malcolm Bruce is a legend in this part of the world so that might save them, the snp candidate is a guy who cant make a splash as alex salmond wont let him and the tory is a wee boy that leaves the labour candidate who is known in the area as a snior councillor in aberdeen with name recognition in the shire thanks to the local press.
So the likely outcome is
Lib Dem hold
Labour
snp
tory
green
Even though Martin Ford has campaigned against trump the sad truth is that the development is popular in the constituency as it is seen as a way of removing a reliance on the oil industry.
Peter,
The Holyrood seat which the Westminster Gordon largely covers in Aberdeen North, which is now a much safer SNP seat than AS’s rural Gordon.
In 2007 the SNP would have won the Gordon Westminster by a much wider margin than the rural Holyrood seat.
The Gordon Westminster seat also covers the more SNP Aberdeen Northern suburbs, while the Labour vote is in the more inner city areas – which remains in the Aberdeen North Westminster seat with most of Aberdeen Central.
The Gordon Westminster seat is very similar to the 1983 – 1997 Gordon where the 1992 result was -
LD 22158
Con 21884
SNP 8445
Lab 6682
I don’t see how you think my prediction was outlandish because it was in line with successive bookies odds. The Tories polled 15000 more votes than Labour here in 1992 so I don’t see why Labour would come 2nd as you believe they will. Why would the SNP lose to Labour here when they hold both the Holyrood seats covering the constituency.
If you add the two Holyrood seats in 2007 together Labour are in clear 4th place, and when you omit the wards which are in the Aberdeen North Westminster seat Labour are even further adrift.
I agree with your comments about Bruce’s incumbancy and he should help the LD’s to hang on here against the SNP in 2010 as he did against the Tories in 1992.
If Bruce had retired in 1992 or was to be in 2010, the LD’s would have been and would be doomed.
If my prediction was silly it would have shown something like the LD’s third with this on the knife edge between the Tories and SNP.
The bookies odds are closer to my predition than yours, and they would equate to something like -
2010
Liberal Democrat: 17000
SNP: 13500
Conservative: 8000
Labour: 5500
Other: 1000
Majority: 4500
Peter
First of all Aberdeen north might be an snp held seat at the scottish parliament but the bridge of don and dyce, both areas in aberdeen north actually ahve a sizeable labour vote and surprise surpise both also now appear in the gordon seat so for the first time in history the seat as a sizeable core labour vote outwith inverurie and fraserburgh.
Secondly the snp are suffering at the hands of the salmond factor, people either love him or hate him and it seems that the hate factor is coming in.
Thirdly the lib dems are so split in both the shire and the city that at last count the city had 2 factions and the shire 3 not counting the independent lib dems who are going out of there way to have a go at there former colleagues.
So this leaves us with an unpolular lib dems and an snp who cant ever get the roads gritted, so who is left.
The tories have choses a 21 yr old student so clearly they dont think they can win it and dont tink they will make much of an impression, the greens have chooses martin ford who ma have had lots of media attention but who does not actually represent any part of gordon and as such is a one issue candiadate with no constitieuncy links and indeed the one issue he has is opposed to is actually popular in the area.
This leaves us with labour, now im not saying that labour is going to win, but what i do think is that the suggestion that they are going to finish fourth is actually crazy.
When you put the unpopularity of the lib dems, the anyone but salmond and the tory’s which has hold in the area and the fact that they have a well known candidate witin the part of the constituency where labour has won in the past then you get a position where as i said before.
Lib Dem (just)
labour
snp
tory
green
By the way this is not just the ramblings of an outsider looking in, i live in gordon, work i gordon and vote here so its a constitiuency that i can say i know well and trust me on this one the tories will finish 4th.
Peter
Well I’m as partisan Labour as they come, but let’s get real; the fact that the LDs are divided on the local council does not mean that there will be a huge swing from LD to Labour in this seat. It is true that Labour has benefitted from the last boundary change here, but just look at the figures. There’s no way Malcolm Bruce will be put under serious pressure from Labour in this seat.
Revised prediction.
May 2010
Most likely
*LD 17,059 36.2% -8.8%
SNP 13,948 29.6% +13.6%
Con 9,943 21.1% +3.5%
Lab 6,173 13.1% -7.1%
Total votes 47,123
LD majority 3,111 6.6%
swing 11.2% from LD to SNP
This is not that different to one I posted before, but I am envisaging Bruce holds on by about double the majority I expected before, although that it will still be fairly close.
This is a seat where the Tories could expect a larger increase, and I also think Labour will hold up better than that in Scotland as a whole,
but the LDs can still attract tactical votes from Tories (illogical as it is), and also from those who don’t want Independence.
Labour have selected Barney Crockett here
Matt i think with Barney being the leader of the Labour group on Council will make Labour a credible opposition party in this seat. I would not be surprised if the Libs are worried about both the SNP and Labour here. The papers are full of stuff about how bad the Libs are in Local Government not only in Aberdeen but Aberdeenshire that i think a backlash could be on the cards. The Libs are the only losers here so no matter what the other parties do the Libs can only lose it
Anyone who thinks that Labour will hold on to second place in this seat has lost touch with reality
Elise Jones is the BNP Candidate here.
The Scottish Green Party has selected local campaigner Sue Edwards as its Westminster candidate for Gordon.
More info here:-
http://aberdeen.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/greens-select-candidate-for-gordon
“By the way this is not just the ramblings of an outsider looking in, i live in gordon, work i gordon and vote here so its a constitiuency that i can say i know well”
Who is Peter (10 Jan) trying to kid? Where to begin with the amount of mistakes in his post.
Fraserburgh ISN’T in Gordon.
Martin Ford DOES represent a council seat in Gordon.
But he’s right about the Tories. Their choice of candidate speaks volumes about what they think of their own chances.
Martin Ford ISN’T the Green candidate.
LD 15000
SNP 11500
SCUP 10800
Labour 5000
BNP 800
Green 600
That looks very plausible
‘Fraserburgh ISN’T in Gordon’
Indeed not, it is in Banff and Buchan, where Alex Salmond is standing down. Gordon is the name of his Holyrood seat.
LD Hold= 5,000 maj
SNP take 2nd
Tories narrowly behind in 3rd
Labour drop to 4th
Libdem
Conservative
SNP
Labour
Majority – 7000
As a voter in Gordon (both Westminster and Holyrood) this is going to be an SNP gain. The main reasons are 1) as a seat it is virtually the Gordon Holyrood seat less Keith and Turriff, but with the addition of Brian Adam’s North Aberdeen seat. The SNP votes in 2007 were 26,000+, the Libdems 16,000+. 44% to 27%. 2) the fact Salmond is the MSP will ensure that he gets his man in at Westminster. Richard Thomson has been getting exposure with Salmond now, and failure to take the seat would look like a setback for Salmond. 3)the electorate know the tories are outsiders, so the propaganda of the Libdems that it is a two horse race between them and the tories no longer holds water, and the tories are not as hated as they might have been in Thatcher’s day 4) the SNP in government have frozen the council tax for 3 years. This has not been forgotten by the voters. 5) Malcolm Bruce fought to defend this seat in 2007 like a man obsessed and the libdems threw everything to keep Nora Radcliffe as the MSP. He lost the seat back then. All the SNP have to do is hold onto the voters they got in 2007 and they will take the seat with 5000+ majority.
I have met Richard Thomson and he is an impressive and youthful candidate with a real chance of ousting Malcolm Bruce.
At the very least he will turn this into a marginal seat, which would then fall to the SNP on the presumed retiral of Bruce at the next GE (pushing 70 by then,-assuming it isn’t also in 2010!-might still fall even then).
Still, if Huntly Loon says the SNP will win this time round, who am I to disagree?
Lib Dem Hold
Maj 5 300
LD maj 5,500 (SNP 2nd)
Since 1885 which seats have included Balmedie and Huntly, and have they been in the Holyrood seat of Gordon since 1999?
Nobody cares Harry Potter. Get a girlfriend.
Harsh. Quite a few people have an interest I would suspect.
Harry:
a) Since 1885 etc.: don’t know. At a guess Aberdeenshire West (Huntly) and Aberdeenshire East (Balmedie) until 1983, and Gordon thereafter.
b) Holyrood seat: yes, they both are.
LD HOLD
It would take another 7% or more for Bruce to be decapitated here.
Given the SNP has hit a ceiling, it’s hard to see who else could do it.
The Tories are not that far further behind in fourth place, and although I think they probably will snatch something in North East Scotland at some point, it would take a major change in perceptions of the party for them to go the whole way here.
I’m not sure Labour can do it either.
Is there anywhere else where the Conservatives are in 4th place where we were notionally ahead in 1992?
I’m sure there is a higher potential Tory vote here, but it’s now being tactically squeezed.
“Is there anywhere else where the Conservatives are in 4th place where we were notionally ahead in 1992?”
Not sure the Tories would have been notionally ahead in 1992 on these boundaries. Remember that in 1997 the north Aberdeen suburbs were removed and Tory areas from Banff/Buchan and Moray added which is what made it a notional Tory seat (the size of the Tory lead is debatable but probably not the fact of a Tory lead). In 2005 these changes were reversed as those rural areas were returned and the Aberdeen suburbs came back in. In addition some territory was lost to West Aberdeenshire which I would take to be quite Tory therefore the LD majority in 1992 on these boundaries was probably if anything slightly larger
The Turiff, and Ythan estuary areas
I’m assuming that salmond is standing for Aberdeenshire east and that he will increase his majority despite his association with Trump as he is an astute politician. I think the SNP will increase their votes in the northeast in 2011 even if they slide back in fife and the lothians etc
Aberdeenshire east prediction 2011:
SNP 16500
LD 7500
Con 5500
Lab 5000
I remember discussing the possibility of him gambling on Aberdeenshire West like he gambled on Gordon the last time. If he does, that would be an intriguing battle but if not it’s an easy hold for him in Aberdeenshire East.
Any news on when new threads will be started for the seats for hoyrood 2011? Its getting confusing following all these different ones – I’m sure that the same seats are being discussed on different threads!
Or maybe it just feels like it!
They are, in fact the Angus thread seems to have become a thread devoted to predictions about the election as a whole!
Just noticed there was a rather strange result in the Aberdeenshire East constituency in October 1974 with a small swing to the Tories from the SNP of 1.4% whereas in most Con/SNP battles there was a big swing from Con to SNP in that election compared to February.
Quite surprised that Labour came second here in 2010..where are the voters coming from!?..
“Quite surprised that Labour came second here in 2010..where are the voters coming from!?..”
The North Aberdeen suburbs which are a part of the Westminster constituency (as they were from 1983 – 1997).
I believed that the Westminster constituency should have been called ‘Gordon & Aberdeen North’, and Aberdeen North be called Aberdeen Central.
When you consider ‘Romsey & Southampton North’, there is much more of Aberdeen in the Gordon Westminster constituency than Southampshire in the Hampshire constituency.
It is a weird constituency but Dyce etc is not actually that urban even though it’s within Aberdeen coun bounds.
Labour did do well to hold their vote though even if they lost 2nd place.
Is this the first time the Tories came fourth in this seat? Just when you thought things might improve a bit for them in seats like this.
James Cran lost this seat in 1983, having previously fought Glasgow Shettleston in the 70′s.
He nevertheless was elected in Beverley & Haltemprice in 1987.
In all fairness to the tories, they did gain in terms of share of the vote here – it was just that the SNP went from 4th to 2nd, where they probably should be given that Salmond won this seat in 2007.
Predictions for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Aberdeenshire East (Alex Salmond seat)
SNP – 16000
Con – 6000
LD – 4000
Lab – 2000
Aberdeenshire West
LD – 12000
SNP – 10000
Con – 7000
Lab – 3000
lib dem candidate stands down in Donside
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2011/02/22/lib-dem-candidate-charged-with-soliciting-prostitutes-86908-22941812/