Gordon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9111 (18.68%)
Labour: 9811 (20.11%)
Liberal Democrat: 17575 (36.03%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.43%)
Green: 752 (1.54%)
Majority: 6748 (13.83%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20008 (45%)
Labour: 8982 (20.2%)
Conservative: 7842 (17.6%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Other: 508 (1.1%)
Majority: 11026 (24.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8049 (23%)
Labour: 4730 (13.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15928 (45.5%)
SNP: 5760 (16.5%)
Other: 534 (1.5%)
Majority: 7879 (22.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11002 (26%)
Labour: 4350 (10.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 17999 (42.6%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Referendum: 459 (1.1%)
Majority: 6997 (16.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Malcolm Bruce(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Ross Thomson (Conservative) Barney Crockett (Labour)Malcolm Bruce(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Richard Thomson (SNP) Sue Edwards (Green) Elise Jones (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89320
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 60.1%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.1% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
As a voter in Gordon (both Westminster and Holyrood) this is going to be an SNP gain. The main reasons are 1) as a seat it is virtually the Gordon Holyrood seat less Keith and Turriff, but with the addition of Brian Adam’s North Aberdeen seat. The SNP votes in 2007 were 26,000+, the Libdems 16,000+. 44% to 27%. 2) the fact Salmond is the MSP will ensure that he gets his man in at Westminster. Richard Thomson has been getting exposure with Salmond now, and failure to take the seat would look like a setback for Salmond. 3)the electorate know the tories are outsiders, so the propaganda of the Libdems that it is a two horse race between them and the tories no longer holds water, and the tories are not as hated as they might have been in Thatcher’s day 4) the SNP in government have frozen the council tax for 3 years. This has not been forgotten by the voters. 5) Malcolm Bruce fought to defend this seat in 2007 like a man obsessed and the libdems threw everything to keep Nora Radcliffe as the MSP. He lost the seat back then. All the SNP have to do is hold onto the voters they got in 2007 and they will take the seat with 5000+ majority.
I have met Richard Thomson and he is an impressive and youthful candidate with a real chance of ousting Malcolm Bruce.
At the very least he will turn this into a marginal seat, which would then fall to the SNP on the presumed retiral of Bruce at the next GE (pushing 70 by then,-assuming it isn’t also in 2010!-might still fall even then).
Still, if Huntly Loon says the SNP will win this time round, who am I to disagree?
Lib Dem Hold
Maj 5 300
LD maj 5,500 (SNP 2nd)
Since 1885 which seats have included Balmedie and Huntly, and have they been in the Holyrood seat of Gordon since 1999?
Nobody cares Harry Potter. Get a girlfriend.
Harsh. Quite a few people have an interest I would suspect.
Harry:
a) Since 1885 etc.: don’t know. At a guess Aberdeenshire West (Huntly) and Aberdeenshire East (Balmedie) until 1983, and Gordon thereafter.
b) Holyrood seat: yes, they both are.
LD HOLD
It would take another 7% or more for Bruce to be decapitated here.
Given the SNP has hit a ceiling, it’s hard to see who else could do it.
The Tories are not that far further behind in fourth place, and although I think they probably will snatch something in North East Scotland at some point, it would take a major change in perceptions of the party for them to go the whole way here.
I’m not sure Labour can do it either.
Is there anywhere else where the Conservatives are in 4th place where we were notionally ahead in 1992?
I’m sure there is a higher potential Tory vote here, but it’s now being tactically squeezed.
“Is there anywhere else where the Conservatives are in 4th place where we were notionally ahead in 1992?”
Not sure the Tories would have been notionally ahead in 1992 on these boundaries. Remember that in 1997 the north Aberdeen suburbs were removed and Tory areas from Banff/Buchan and Moray added which is what made it a notional Tory seat (the size of the Tory lead is debatable but probably not the fact of a Tory lead). In 2005 these changes were reversed as those rural areas were returned and the Aberdeen suburbs came back in. In addition some territory was lost to West Aberdeenshire which I would take to be quite Tory therefore the LD majority in 1992 on these boundaries was probably if anything slightly larger
The Turiff, and Ythan estuary areas