Gordon
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20008 (45%)
Labour: 8982 (20.2%)
Conservative: 7842 (17.6%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Other: 508 (1.1%)
Majority: 11026 (24.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8049 (23%)
Labour: 4730 (13.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15928 (45.5%)
SNP: 5760 (16.5%)
Other: 534 (1.5%)
Majority: 7879 (22.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11002 (26%)
Labour: 4350 (10.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 17999 (42.6%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Referendum: 459 (1.1%)
Majority: 6997 (16.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Malcolm Bruce(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Ross Thomson (Conservative) Barney Crockett (Labour)Malcolm Bruce(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)Richard Thomson (SNP) Sue Edwards (Green) Elise Jones (BNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89320
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 60.1%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.1% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
Peter
First of all Aberdeen north might be an snp held seat at the scottish parliament but the bridge of don and dyce, both areas in aberdeen north actually ahve a sizeable labour vote and surprise surpise both also now appear in the gordon seat so for the first time in history the seat as a sizeable core labour vote outwith inverurie and fraserburgh.
Secondly the snp are suffering at the hands of the salmond factor, people either love him or hate him and it seems that the hate factor is coming in.
Thirdly the lib dems are so split in both the shire and the city that at last count the city had 2 factions and the shire 3 not counting the independent lib dems who are going out of there way to have a go at there former colleagues.
So this leaves us with an unpolular lib dems and an snp who cant ever get the roads gritted, so who is left.
The tories have choses a 21 yr old student so clearly they dont think they can win it and dont tink they will make much of an impression, the greens have chooses martin ford who ma have had lots of media attention but who does not actually represent any part of gordon and as such is a one issue candiadate with no constitieuncy links and indeed the one issue he has is opposed to is actually popular in the area.
This leaves us with labour, now im not saying that labour is going to win, but what i do think is that the suggestion that they are going to finish fourth is actually crazy.
When you put the unpopularity of the lib dems, the anyone but salmond and the tory’s which has hold in the area and the fact that they have a well known candidate witin the part of the constituency where labour has won in the past then you get a position where as i said before.
Lib Dem (just)
labour
snp
tory
green
By the way this is not just the ramblings of an outsider looking in, i live in gordon, work i gordon and vote here so its a constitiuency that i can say i know well and trust me on this one the tories will finish 4th.
Peter
Well I’m as partisan Labour as they come, but let’s get real; the fact that the LDs are divided on the local council does not mean that there will be a huge swing from LD to Labour in this seat. It is true that Labour has benefitted from the last boundary change here, but just look at the figures. There’s no way Malcolm Bruce will be put under serious pressure from Labour in this seat.
Revised prediction.
May 2010
Most likely
*LD 17,059 36.2% -8.8%
SNP 13,948 29.6% +13.6%
Con 9,943 21.1% +3.5%
Lab 6,173 13.1% -7.1%
Total votes 47,123
LD majority 3,111 6.6%
swing 11.2% from LD to SNP
This is not that different to one I posted before, but I am envisaging Bruce holds on by about double the majority I expected before, although that it will still be fairly close.
This is a seat where the Tories could expect a larger increase, and I also think Labour will hold up better than that in Scotland as a whole,
but the LDs can still attract tactical votes from Tories (illogical as it is), and also from those who don’t want Independence.
Labour have selected Barney Crockett here
Matt i think with Barney being the leader of the Labour group on Council will make Labour a credible opposition party in this seat. I would not be surprised if the Libs are worried about both the SNP and Labour here. The papers are full of stuff about how bad the Libs are in Local Government not only in Aberdeen but Aberdeenshire that i think a backlash could be on the cards. The Libs are the only losers here so no matter what the other parties do the Libs can only lose it
Anyone who thinks that Labour will hold on to second place in this seat has lost touch with reality
Elise Jones is the BNP Candidate here.
The Scottish Green Party has selected local campaigner Sue Edwards as its Westminster candidate for Gordon.
More info here:-
http://aberdeen.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/greens-select-candidate-for-gordon