Gloucester
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20267 (39.92%)
Labour: 17847 (35.16%)
Liberal Democrat: 9767 (19.24%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.56%)
Green: 511 (1.01%)
English Democrat: 564 (1.11%)
Majority: 2420 (4.76%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 22291 (47.7%)
Conservative: 16223 (34.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6408 (13.7%)
Other: 1798 (3.8%)
Majority: 6068 (13%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18867 (36.4%)
Labour: 23138 (44.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7825 (15.1%)
Green: 857 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1116 (2.2%)
Majority: 4271 (8.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18187 (37.7%)
Labour: 22067 (45.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6875 (14.3%)
UKIP: 822 (1.7%)
Other: 272 (0.6%)
Majority: 3880 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20684 (35.7%)
Labour: 28943 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 6069 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1482 (2.6%)
Other: 736 (1.3%)
Majority: 8259 (14.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Richard Graham (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former airline manager, diplomat and merchant banker, now Head of International Business at Baring Asset Management. Cotswold district councillor since 2003. Contested South West region in European 2004 elections.
Richard Graham (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former airline manager, diplomat and merchant banker, now Head of International Business at Baring Asset Management. Cotswold district councillor since 2003. Contested South West region in European 2004 elections.
Parmjit Dhanda(Labour) born 1971, London. Educated at Mellow Lane School and Nottingham University. Former Labour party organiser. Hillingdon councillor 1998-2002. Contested South-East reigion in 1999 European elections. First elected as MP for Gloucester in 2001. PPS to Stephen Twigg 2004-2005, government whip 2005-2006, Under secretary in the department of education from 2006-2007 and Parliamentary under-secretary in the department of communities and local government 2007-2008. Unsuccessfully stood for Speaker in 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Jeremy Hilton (Liberal Democrat) born 1955, Gloucester. Educated at Longlevens Secondard School. Local government consultant. Leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Gloucester council and Gloucestershire county council. Contested Gloucester 1987, 2005. 
Brian Meloy (Green)
Mike Smith (UKIP) Born 1943, Gloucester. Educated at Sir Thomas Rich`s Grammar School and Cable and Wireless Engineering College. Gloucester councillor 1976-1983. Market research supervisor.
Alan Platt (English Democrat)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100822
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.6%
Over 60: 19.1%
Born outside UK: 6.8%
White: 92.1%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 73.6%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73%
Social Housing: 15.3% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.4%
Barnaby – Get Real amused everyone in Merseyside. Have you heard that a docu ‘Winning Wavertree’ is to be televised? The fact that the LDs were busy filming their campaign shows arrogance and stupidity.
Unless Barnaby was there personally Derek Spencer must have said that on Sky News because I have the BBC and ITN election shows from 1992 and Brighton Pavilion appears on neither of them.
He didn’t say it on TV, I think he made the remark to the Argus. Perhaps it was an attempt to say he wasn’t going to retire prematurely or move seats, he having of course previously represented Leicester South (which he won in 1983 by 7 votes).
I’m only stating what was almost certainly the fact -
the people who made these predictions in April
have not posted again.
Susan Kramer did seem to be almost alone at the Richmond Park count (see U tube),
and
and the LDs certainly did disappear from the 2007 count in Windsor when the results became clear
, and the 2002 count in Richmond where they lost the council.
I do not attack other posters for being critical of the Tories,
and rarely attack candidates or MPs from other parties (although I apologise I have done so in the case of Ed Balls, Simon Hughes, Tim Farron).
To my amusement, Mark Senior also never came back to the scene of his crimes, after his many daft predictions of soaraway Lib Dem success came to nothing in places like Newcastle or Sheffield.
He does still continue to post on other seats, however, and I find his posts enjoyable.
I’m here. And I took my medicine too….!
.
I just think it is a bit daft making predictions for any seat until after the result in May and the boundary review, unless you we have 5 years worth of musings on the Isle of Wight (Con hold/ con gain), Western Isles (SNP hold) and Orkney and Shetland (LD hold).
I hope all are well btw.
Thanks for asking, I’ve been rather poorly but am recovered now! How are you?
IMHO (and I’m sure many others) it is utterly ridiculous that the Boundary Commission wants to move Westgate ward (which includes Gloucester city centre, the cathedral and the docks – basically the heart of the city) into Forest of Dean!! I sincerely hope they reconsider, especially when the public consultations take place.
Indeed. I assume they will be getting plenty of representations on this question. There are plenty of alternatives available any of which would be superior to that proposed which is as you say utterly ridiculous
I personally would prefer Westgate ward remaining in this seat! How can it be called ‘Gloucester’ anymore if it is proposed not to include the city centre in it? Perhaps ‘Gloucester Outer’?? Then again Newcastle Central didnt have the city centre in it for 17 years.
That’s certainly true Harry, but of course Newcastle is a lopsided city, since Gateshead lies immediately over the water from the city centre. Thus Newcastle Central was actually geographically the centre of the city, although the city centre as we would usually describe it was in Tyne Bridge.
Newcastle started electing its MPs from single-member constituencies in 1918 and not 1885. The (not geographical) city centre (including the Anglican and Catholic cathedrals, the Earl Grey Monument, and the eponymous Castle) has been in
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central 1918-83
Tyne Bridge 1983-2010
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central 2010-present
What have been the boundary changes to this constituency since 1918?
Harry: in the last review one ward, Longlevens was removed but the Boundarycommission website has links to their last two national Reviews of Westminster Constituencies (pre-1997 & 2010). This area of meandering generally mid-to-late 20th century housing has had more Tories than some more densely packed wards.
The essential question is how well are the government attracting more investment and entrepreneurs to the City and surroundings before 2015. So far most juries would be dissatisfied in terms of unemployment.