Comments on: Glenrothes

By: A Brown

A Brown — Wed, 11 May 2011 17:35:46 +0000

I see Tricia Marwick has become Presiding officer after defeating Hugh Henry 73-55 in the 2nd round.

Clearly the arithmetic was irrelevant so I assume the SNP had no problems with one of their own being elected even though it was labour’s ‘turn’.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 17:07:14 +0000

Well, well, this is an intriguing seat now. I suspect it is up there with Falkirk West in the ‘must win’ seats for the SNP and Labour and I reckon this is one we may be waiting on to determine the overall result as the count in Fife will not begin until the Friday. My own tentative prediction would be this:
SNP 10432 – 43.3% (-1.1)
Labour 10391 – 43.2% (+7.9)
Con 2032 – 8.4%( -0.5)
LD 1210 – 5%(-6.2%)
This is perhaps as much a prediction as an illustration of a scenario whereby the SNP could still win this seat with a big Labour rise. The SNP vote in 2007 was probably somewhat inflated and I believe that there is still the potential for a Labour gain by over 1000 votes if they re-establish a national lead but given the notional majority of over 2000 they will have to achieve a big swing to take the seat.

By: UK Polling Report

UK Polling Report — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 10:37:13 +0000

[...] Glenrothes there was a by-election on the 6th November 2008 which Labour won by just under 20%. In September [...]

By: Esgrad

Esgrad — Sun, 09 Jan 2011 00:48:30 +0000

Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election

Lab – 12000
SNP – 11000
Con – 2500
LD – 2000

By: A Brown

A Brown — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 16:25:39 +0000

‘That kind of swing would put safer SNP seats like Aberdeen Donside and Dundee East at risk’.

I do not think Labour can gain Dundee East but the SNP majority can probably be limited to about 1500.

Aberdeen Donside could potentially go down to the wire between Lab and SNP depending on what happens to the LD vote.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 07:53:33 +0000

I read in the Almanac of British Politics that the SNP’s unilateralist position in defence terms went down badly in the RAF areas & caused a rather surprising Labour surge there. Not sure how true that is though.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:41:46 +0000

Perhaps it was the SNP administration in Moray that almost resulted in a Labour gain in Moray in 2001 and 2003.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 21:58:36 +0000

It’s possible – the SNP/LD run council is not at all popular (is council incumbency ever a good thing?) and the swing in central Scotland to Labour is likely to be higher than in more rural areas.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 20:11:55 +0000

Well this kind of swing would be in this seat only due to local issues. Labour has remobilised its core vote in Glenrothes town as seen by the result of the Glenrothes by election.

Labour was strong in the Central Fife seat in 1999 so I was suggesting Labour could rever to that position.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 22:14:02 +0000

That kind of swing would put safer SNP seats like Aberdeen Donside and Dundee East at risk.

While it is likely that most of the Central Scotland SNP MSP’s will lose their constituency seats (as opposed to seats, as many are high on the regional lists), a couple may hold on due to high personal profiles.