Glenrothes
2010 Results:
Conservative: 2922 (7.21%)
Labour: 25247 (62.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 3108 (7.67%)
SNP: 8799 (21.73%)
UKIP: 425 (1.05%)
Majority: 16448 (40.61%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 19395 (51.9%)
SNP: 8731 (23.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4728 (12.7%)
Conservative: 2651 (7.1%)
Other: 1861 (5%)
Majority: 10664 (28.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Fife Central.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2351 (7.2%)
Labour: 18310 (56.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2775 (8.5%)
SNP: 8235 (25.3%)
Other: 841 (2.6%)
Majority: 10075 (31%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3669 (9%)
Labour: 23912 (58.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2610 (6.4%)
SNP: 10199 (25%)
Referendum: 375 (0.9%)
Majority: 13713 (33.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Glenrothes is the administrative centre of Fife. It was originally built as a new town in the 1940s and 1950s to support a massive new coal mine, the Rothes Colliery. Incessent flooding though forced the closure of the mine in 1961 after only 4 years operation, halting development and devasting the local economy. In hindsight the closure of the mine forced Glenrothes went down a far more favourable path – becoming a successful centre for high tech industry and manufacturing and going through subsequent periods of development and expansion in the 1960s. It is a typical newtown, characterised by modern, low-rise housing, often built in parkland environments festooned with concrete public art.
As well as Glenrothes itself the constituency includes the surrounding villages, including Cardenden, Leslie, markinch, and Kennoway.
The seat and its predecessor Central Fife have both been safely Labour seats. However, the Central Fife seat in the Scottish Parliament, now contested on different boundaries, was in 2007 won by the SNP.
Current MP: Lindsay Roy(Labour) Former rector of Kirkcaldy High School, Gordon Brown`s alma mater. Awarded a CBE in 2004 for services to education. First elected as MP for Glenrothes in 2008 by-election.
Sheila Low (Conservative) Lindsay Roy(Labour) Former rector of Kirkcaldy High School, Gordon Brown`s alma mater. Awarded a CBE in 2004 for services to education. First elected as MP for Glenrothes in 2008 by-election. Harry Wills (Liberal Democrat)David Alexander (SNP)Dr Kris Seunarine (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88308
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 55.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Graduates 16-74: 10.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.2%
Owner-Occupied: 59.3%
Social Housing: 32.9% (Council: 28.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 3.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.2%
2008 By-election
The by-election was caused by the death of John MacDougall on the 13th August. It was not held until the 6th November, two days after the US Presidential election, it was speculated that the timing was chosen so that the expected Labour loss was overshadowed by the publicity around Barack Obama`s election. The SNP already held the equivalent Scottish Parliament seat and at the time the vacancy arose Labour were trailing badly in the polls. In the event, however, Labour held the seat comfortably. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both lost thier deposits. Unusually both Gordon Brown and his wife campaigned personally in the campaign.
By-election result
Lindsay Roy (Labour): 19946 (55.1%) +3.2
Peter Grant (SNP): 13209 (36.5%) +13.1
Maurice Golden (Conservative): 1381 (3.8%) -3.3
Harry Wills (Liberal Democrat): 947 (2.6%) -10.1
Jim Parker (SCCUP): 296 (0.8%)
Morag Balfour (SSP): 212 (0.6%) -1.3
Kris Seunarine (UKIP): 117 (0.3%) -0.9
Louise McLeary (Solidarity): 87 (0.2%)
Majority: 6737 (18.6%)
By-election candidates:
Peter Grant (SNP) Former public sector auditor. Fife councillor since 1992. Leader of Fife council since 2007.Lindsay Roy (Labour) Rector of Kirkcaldy High School, Gordon Brown`s alma mater. Awarded a CBE in 2004 for services to education.
Maurice Golden (Conservative) Educated at Dundee University. Environmental campaigns manager. Contested Fife Central in 2007 Scottish election. 
Harry Wills (Liberal Democrat) Former corporate troubleshooter. Businessman, curently running a local spray painting company. Contested Glasgow Cathcart October 1974, 1979. Contested Mid Scotland and Fife 2003 Scottish election.
Morag Balfour (SSP) Facilitator for chronic pain support groups. National co-chair of the SSP. Contested Fife Central 2003 Scottish elections, Glenrothes 2001, 2005.
Kris Seunarine (UKIP) Educated at Dundee University and Edinburgh University. Biophotonics researcher.
Louise McLeary (Solidarity) Drugs worker. Contested Mid Scotland and Fife 2007 Scottish elections, having previously been on the SSP`s 2007 list.
Jim Parker (Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) Educated at Bell-Baxter Senior Secondard School and Heriot-Watt University. Retired miner and consultant engineer. Contested Mid Scotland & Fife in 2007 Scottish elections.
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LAB HOLD
Mid Fife and Glenrothes is the equivalent Holyrood seat, although generally the holyrood seat has a slightly more affluent electorate which is more SNP than the Westminster seat. The notional results (given new boundaries for 2011) are, by my calculations,
Lib Dem 2628 10.2%
Labour 8965 34.8%
SNP 10878 42.3%
Con 2225 8.6%
Total vote in 2007 25725
SNP majority of 1913.
I was surprised how low the SNP vote was Glenrothes in May. I know people vote differently at holyrood elections but Labour will certainly win the Mid fife and glenrothes constituency (even with the tougher boundaries)
Prediction 2011
Turnout 29000
Labour 14700
SNP 10000
LD 2300
Con 2000
Labour majorly underperformed in Fife in the 2003 and 2007 elections due to apathy so I’m working on the assumption that a lot more of their core vote will come out next year.
Certainly if turnout is good Labour should win the seat though the popularity of Gordon Brown and of Lindsay Roy helped boost the Labour vote in the GE and by-election. The new boundaries make it about as SNP as it could get without incorporating Kinross-shire but Marwick is really on the back foot given how unpopular Fife Council is and she’ll struggle to hold on.
Claire Baker will probably stand for this seat next year and I expect John park to stand for Dunfermline.
In which case they should probably take the seat comfortably. Dunfermline will be very safe for the Labour party.
That’s interesting. I was wondering if any of the Labour list MSPs would have stood in a constituency this time.
How are the party internal rules regarding double candidancy?
There are Labour party rules regarding double candicacy – they have to choose a list OR a constituency so I’m suggesting Richard Simpson, Claire Baker and John Park all stand in constituencies to remain MSPs.
Thanks A Brown.
If so, John Park has chosen the list. He has a facebook page for his campaign for reselection on the Mid Scotland and Fife list.
Actually, my dad’s a Labour Party member (in fact one of very few in NE Fife!) and all three are on the ballot for the list, so I suspect they have another candidate in mind. The Fife NE Labour candidate is yet to be elected, and it’s between Colin Davidson, who was one of my high school teachers, and someone from the Glenrothes branch. I believe the SNP has selected Rod Campbell again in Fife NE.
After a couple of months since discussing it, we have an answer…
Park, Baker and Simpson are heading Labour regional list.
However Park is also standing in Dunfermline and Baker in Mid Fife & Glenrothes.
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane hasn’t selected yet (at least it’s not in the list updated on Scottish Labour website)….I guess it’s the likely place for Simpson
Colin Davidson is the Lab candidate in NE Fife.
Park and Baker should take the gamble and not have gone on the list too, they’d probably gain those seats by about 5000.
Simpson gets a thoroughly-deserved kicking from Ruth Wishart in The Herald this morning.
I might edit my prediction a bit here
Glenrothes & MF 2011
Lab 51% (+16)
SNP 36% (-8)
Con 8% (-1)
LD 5% (-6)
That kind of swing would put safer SNP seats like Aberdeen Donside and Dundee East at risk.
While it is likely that most of the Central Scotland SNP MSP’s will lose their constituency seats (as opposed to seats, as many are high on the regional lists), a couple may hold on due to high personal profiles.
Well this kind of swing would be in this seat only due to local issues. Labour has remobilised its core vote in Glenrothes town as seen by the result of the Glenrothes by election.
Labour was strong in the Central Fife seat in 1999 so I was suggesting Labour could rever to that position.
It’s possible – the SNP/LD run council is not at all popular (is council incumbency ever a good thing?) and the swing in central Scotland to Labour is likely to be higher than in more rural areas.
Perhaps it was the SNP administration in Moray that almost resulted in a Labour gain in Moray in 2001 and 2003.
I read in the Almanac of British Politics that the SNP’s unilateralist position in defence terms went down badly in the RAF areas & caused a rather surprising Labour surge there. Not sure how true that is though.
‘That kind of swing would put safer SNP seats like Aberdeen Donside and Dundee East at risk’.
I do not think Labour can gain Dundee East but the SNP majority can probably be limited to about 1500.
Aberdeen Donside could potentially go down to the wire between Lab and SNP depending on what happens to the LD vote.
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Lab – 12000
SNP – 11000
Con – 2500
LD – 2000
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Well, well, this is an intriguing seat now. I suspect it is up there with Falkirk West in the ‘must win’ seats for the SNP and Labour and I reckon this is one we may be waiting on to determine the overall result as the count in Fife will not begin until the Friday. My own tentative prediction would be this:
SNP 10432 – 43.3% (-1.1)
Labour 10391 – 43.2% (+7.9)
Con 2032 – 8.4%( -0.5)
LD 1210 – 5%(-6.2%)
This is perhaps as much a prediction as an illustration of a scenario whereby the SNP could still win this seat with a big Labour rise. The SNP vote in 2007 was probably somewhat inflated and I believe that there is still the potential for a Labour gain by over 1000 votes if they re-establish a national lead but given the notional majority of over 2000 they will have to achieve a big swing to take the seat.
I see Tricia Marwick has become Presiding officer after defeating Hugh Henry 73-55 in the 2nd round.
Clearly the arithmetic was irrelevant so I assume the SNP had no problems with one of their own being elected even though it was labour’s ‘turn’.