Glasgow South
2005 Results:
Labour: 18153 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7321 (19%)
SNP: 4860 (12.6%)
Conservative: 4836 (12.6%)
Other: 3261 (8.5%)
Majority: 10832 (28.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Cathcart.
2001 Result
Conservative: 3662 (13.4%)
Labour: 14902 (54.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3006 (11%)
SNP: 4086 (14.9%)
Other: 1730 (6.3%)
Majority: 10816 (39.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4248 (12.5%)
Labour: 19158 (56.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2302 (6.7%)
SNP: 6913 (20.3%)
Referendum: 344 (1%)
Other: 1145 (3.4%)
Majority: 12245 (35.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Tom Harris(Labour) Born 1964, Ayrshire. Educated at Garnock Academy and Napier College. Former journalist and local authority PR manager. First elected as MP for Glasgow Cathcart in 2001. PPS to John Spellar 2003-2005, to Patricia Hewitt 2005-2006. Under-secretary at the Department of Transport 2006-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Davena Rankin (Conservative) Educated at Knightswood Secondary school and Sussex University. Commercial manager at Glasgow Caledonian University. Contested Glasgow Kelvin 2001, Glasgow Cathcart & Glasgow list in 2007 Scottish elections, Glasgow East 2008 by-election.Tom Harris(Labour) Born 1964, Ayrshire. Educated at Garnock Academy and Napier College. Former journalist and local authority PR manager. First elected as MP for Glasgow Cathcart in 2001. PPS to John Spellar 2003-2005, to Patricia Hewitt 2005-2006. Under-secretary at the Department of Transport 2006-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Shabnum Mustapha (Liberal Democrat) Born Glasgow. Educated at Glasgow University. Policy and public affairs co-ordinator. Contested Glasgow Cathcart 2007 Scottish election.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88701
Male: 47.1%
Female: 52.9%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 6.2%
White: 92.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 6.1%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 63.6%
Jewish: 0.7%
Muslim: 5%
Sikh: 0.6%
Graduates 16-74: 24.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 63%
Social Housing: 25.3% (Council: 18.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.5%)
Privately Rented: 8.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
I believe that the Tories will come at least third here for certain.
Davina Rankin is like Teddy Taylor.
If the SNP poll less well than expected an the Tories are able to win a majority on polling day then Davina could even come second here.
Labour: 14000 – 15000
SNP: 6500 – 8500
Conservative: 6500 – 8500
Liberal Democrat: 5000 – 6000
Other: 2000 – 3000
Majority: 5500 – 8500
Teddy Taylor retired having been an MP for 40 years, having been out of parliament for only 10 months between the 1979 general election and the Southend East by election.
Peter – I do not see the Conservatives getting 2nd here – 6500 is probably as good a vote as they are likely to get
Thats why I highlighted that second place for the Tories would be down to the Conservatives winning the general election and the SNP stalling in Scotland, a very good third is more likely because I don’t see them getting less than the Lib Dems.
The Tories beat the Lib Dems at the last Holyrood elections, on the Glasgow Cathcart boundaries, which are not as good for the Tories.
Also, Glasgow South includes more Tory areas like Maxwell Park, West Pollokshields, Shawlands and the Northern part of Kings Park.
2007
Charlie Gordon LAB 8,476 39.1 -0.1
James Dornan SNP 6,287 29.0 +12.7
David Smith IND 2,911 13.4 +13.4
Davena Rankin CON 2,324 10.7 -2.2
Shabnum Mustapha LD 1,659 7.7 -0.1
Majority 2,189 10.1
Turnout 21,657 45.3 -0.2
I think the Independant candidate clouded the result in Cathcart last time
Yes.
There was a left wing independent (former Labour Leader of Glasgow City Council Pat Lally) who stood in 2003 and polled a similar vote on a similar ticket.
It’s possible that the Surgeon who stood last time will have taken more Tory and Lib Dem votes (and fewer Lab and SNP votes).
Ladbrokes project that the Tories will come 2nd in this Glasgow constituency -
Lab 1/33
Con 16/1
SNP 20/1
LD 50/1
Ladbrokes suggest that the Lib Dems will only hold 2nd place in Glasgow North (which includes much of what was Glasgow Hillhead), SNP 2nd in the cities 5 other seats.
*city’s*
The SNP candidate for Glasgow South is Malcolm Fleming:
http://www.malcolmfleming.org/