Glasgow North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 1569 (5.34%)
Labour: 20100 (68.35%)
Liberal Democrat: 2262 (7.69%)
SNP: 4158 (14.14%)
BNP: 798 (2.71%)
Scottish Socialist: 179 (0.61%)
TUSC: 187 (0.64%)
Socialist Labour: 156 (0.53%)
Majority: 15942 (54.21%)
2005 Results:
Speaker: 15153 (53.3%)
SNP: 5019 (17.7%)
Socialist Labour: 4036 (14.2%)
SSP: 1402 (4.9%)
Scot Unionist: 1266 (4.5%)
BNP: 920 (3.2%)
Independent: 622 (2.2%)
Majority: 10134 (35.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Springburn.
2001 Result
Labour: 16053 (66.6%)
SNP: 4675 (19.4%)
Other: 3376 (14%)
Majority: 11378 (47.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 1893 (6%)
Labour: 22534 (71.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 1349 (4.3%)
SNP: 5208 (16.5%)
Referendum: 186 (0.6%)
Other: 407 (1.3%)
Majority: 17326 (54.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A grim slice of north-east Glasgow, scarred by gangs, deprivation and hard drugs. The innermost Dennistoun area retains the original Victorian tenements and has undergone some gentrification becoming popular with students and young professionals, to the north there are new developments on the outskirts of Glasgow at Robroyston. The rest of the seat though consists of the some of the most degraded, deprived and crime-ridden parts of the UK: the heroin-ravaged Possilpark, the tower blocks of Sighthill and Red Road, decayed housing estates of Springburn and the amenity-free Milton, product of earlier attempts at slum clearance.
As with most of Glasgow, this is a solid Labour bastion. In 2005 the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats followed the sometime convention of not standing against the Speaker seeking re-election, but Michael Martin was opposed by the SNP as well as several fringe parties. Arthur Scargill`s Socialist Labour party achieved 14% of the vote in the absence of a actual Labour candidate on the ballot paper.
Current MP: Willie Bain(Labour) Born Glasgow. Educated at St Rochs Secondary and Strathclyde University. Law lecturer. First elected as MP for Glasgow North East in 2009 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Ruth Davidson (Conservative)Willie Bain(Labour) Born Glasgow. Educated at St Rochs Secondary and Strathclyde University. Law lecturer. First elected as MP for Glasgow North East in 2009 by-election (more information at They work for you)Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrat)Billy McAllister (SNP)Walter Hamilton (BNP)Kevin McVey (Scottish Socialist) Graham Campbell (TUSC) Jim Berrington (Socialist Labour) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88156
Male: 46.9%
Female: 53.1%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 22.2%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 69.3%
Muslim: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 9.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 52%
Owner-Occupied: 38.8%
Social Housing: 51.3% (Council: 36.7%, Housing Ass.: 14.6%)
Privately Rented: 4.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.1%
2009 By-election
Michael Martin was forced to announce his resignation as Speaker in May 2009, having been openly criticised over his response to the expenses scandal and having clearly lost the support of many MPs. He formally stepped down as an MP on the 22nd June 2009, precipitating a by-election, which after a long delay over the recess was set for the 12th November 2009. The by-election was an easy victory for Labour, holding the seat with a majority of almost 40% on a record-low turnout for a Scottish by-election of only 33%.
By-election result
Willie Bain (Labour): 12231 (59.4%)
David Kerr (SNP): 4120 (20.0%)
Ruth Davidson (Conservative): 1075 (5.2%)
Charlie Baillie (BNP): 1013 (4.9%)
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity): 794 (3.9%)
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrat): 474 (2.3%)
David Doherty (Green): 332 (1.6%)
John Smeaton (Jury Team): 258 (1.2%)
Kevin McVey (SSP): 152 (0.7%)
Mikey Hughes (no description): 54 (0.3%)
Louise McDaid (Socialist Labour): 47 (0.2%)
Mev Brown (Independent): 32 (0.2%)
Colin Campbell (TILT): 13 (0.1%)
Majority: 8111 (39.4%)
By-election candidates: 
Charlie Baillie (BNP) Born Glasgow. Electrical contractor. Contested Scotland in 2009 European elections.William Bain (Labour) law lecturer.
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrat) Former social worker. South Lanarkshire councillor.
Mev Brown (Independent) Educated at Napier University. Project worker. Contested Edinburgh East 2005 as a Conservative, Livingston by-election 2005 as an Independent, Moray by-election to the Scottish Parliament 2006 as NHS First, Central Scotland and Airdrie & Shotts in 2007 Scottish elections as NHS First and Scotland in the 2009 European elections for the Jury Team.
Colin Campbell (The Individuals Labour and Tory)
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) Former journalist and documentary maker, currently studying at Glasgow University.
David Doherty (Green) Educated at the University of Strathclyde.
Mikey Hughes (No description) Born 1974. Blind since the age of 23. Educated at St Michaels Academy, Kilwinning and Paisley University. Radio producer and presenter. Runner up in Channel 4`s 2008 series of Big Brother.
David Kerr (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews University. BBC reporter and former Editor of Newsnight Scotland. Contested Falkirk West by-election 2000.
Louise McDaid (Socialist Labour Party) Chair of the Farepak victims campaign. Contested Cunninghame North 1997, Ayrshire North and Arran 2001, Scotland 2009 European elections.
Kevin McVey (SSP) 
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) Born 1964, Glasgow. Educated at Lourdes Secondary and Stirling University. Former member of Labour and the Militant Tendency, he was a prominent poll tax rebel and campaigner against Faslane Navel Base, for which he was twice jailed. A leading figure in the creation of the Scottish Socialist party, which he lead from its creation in 1998 until 2004. Shortly after his resignation the News of the World published allegations that Sheridan had attended swingers parties, Sheridan sued for libel and won, despite members of the SSP tesitfying against him. Sheridan subsequently resigned from the SSP and founded a new party, Solidarity. Sheridan has subsequently been charged with perjury in relation to the libel trial, the hearing is expected later in 2009. Glasgow councillor 1992-2003. MSP for Glasgow 1999-2007. Contested Glasgow Pollock 1992, 1997 as Scottish Militant Labour. Contested 2009 European elections for No2EU.
John Smeaton (Jury Team) born 1976, Bishopton. Educated at Park Mains High School. Airport baggage handler, who in 2007 tackled a terrorist during an attack on Glasgow airport. Awarded the Queen`s Gallantry Medal in 2007.
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I predicted a tiny SNP majority a couple of week ago. Obviously from most people’s comments it looks like I’m going to be wrong about that, but it’s not over until all those votes are counted: sometimes they unexpected does happen, such as Solihull 2005.
I’ve just put my house on a Con gain,
and have a nice bottle of champagne ready.
We have stupendous momentum and can do it this time.
Given the long delay, does anyone know who constituents have written to over the past 5 months? Have the snp set up advice surgeries?
Neighbouring MPs sometimes take over that function. Perhaps Glasgow East MP John Mason has been doing some of it.
One canvasser I follow on Twitter reckons SNP winning by 300, Tories 3rd, BNP 4th, LibDems 5th, Solidarity 6th, Smeato 7th. Course, that was some hours ago and the canvassers thought we were going to do it in Glenrothes, so I wouldn’t put the house on that.
In terms of who looked after Glasgow NE, it’s usually neighbouring MPs from the same party as the incumbent. Technically, that would be no one, but it’s a fair bet that the local Labour MPs (eg Ann McKechin?) would have treated him as ex-Labour.
And of course, don’t forget that Glasgow NE voters would have MSPs they can write to – they might not be able to legislate on reserved matters but there’s no reason in theory why they can’t take on a reserved issue as casework – so Paul Martin and Patricia Ferguson may well have had a heavier postbag of late. And there are also the Regional MSPs, especially Bob Doris (who I think is based in Maryhill) and Anne McLaughlin, who’s very much active in Springburn.
Will: I hope that canvasser is correct because my prediction is for an SNP victory by 50 votes.
I know Christian has posted on here before about how if Labour lose this seat, then Gordon Brown would be toast – it just got me thinking, how on earth could Labour “spin” a defeat here – its not a mid term protest vote as we are 6 months from an election!
Matt – you’re right. No amount of spin could explain a Labour defeat tonight. That’s why I’m staying up for the result just in case that happens.
Matt, they could spin it by saying that technically, Labour haven’t lost it – it was the Speaker’s seat!
Just received another tweet from someone else: no word on the Big 2, but Tories 3rd by 400 votes, with Smeato, Sheridan, LDs and BNP in a 4-way fight for 4th place.
That would be increadibly lame, Will – so they’d probably go for it!!
My only wish is that the Conservatives get 3rd and hold their deposit.
Matt we will hold ouyr deposit and come third even if I have to come down to Glasgow from Stirling and do a Glenrothes on the postal votes!
Seriously however…
A labour defeat wont mean a thing, who would challenge Brown? Six months from an election, with Labour optimistically averaging 27% in the polls? No one would want it…this side of the GE.
The fact that John Majors Tories were polling higher than Labour by this point in 1996 should tell anyone that only a suidical nutter would seek the labour leadership before the GE.
I predict a narrow Labour victory, despite Glasgow Labour’s dire by-election record… but if Labour could break 40% in the June 2009 Euros (and Labour has slightly improved since June), it would be a defeat of historic proportions if they ended up losing… I’m not into raw votes and percentages, but I believe the BNP will do surprisingly well-ish, and beyond that, well, the Tories and LDs will poll crap, but perhaps the Conservatives can scrape through to get their deposit back.
I would be very surprised if at least one candidate isn’t hovering somewhere just beneath the 5% mark which would mean a recount for lost/saved deposit.
Laura Kuennsberg (BBC) quoting the Labour majority as being over 10000 – not strictly true, but the Labour majority would have been similar even if Michael Martin had not been Speaker.
I would actually be quite surprised if we held our deposit. We didn’t do it in the neighbouring seat last year, so I would expect perhaps not. But it is on a knife edge, so its possible to go either way.
I really really would like to see the SNP snatch this seat from Labour-if only to teach them a lesson for trying to manipulate the timing so blatantly. Glasgow people needs to say to Labour that they will not put up with being treated like their playthings.
I’m still expecting an easy Labour hold as I said above. But I so want to be wrong.
If there was a by election in East Renfrewshire at this time it would be as close a result between SNP/ Con/ Lab as in East Dunbartonshire in Oct 1974.
The Tory vote in the Euros elections was 6.9% in Glasgow East compared to 4.4% in Glasgow NE. The Tories polled 6.3% in the Glasgow East by-election which suggests it will be a struggle to hold their deposit tonight.
Sky news reporting the following
“Turnout expected to be around 35%, the lost turnout for a Scottish by-election, ever. “.
That would mean about 22,000 votes cast in total. The winner may only poll around 9,000 votes. In Glasgow East Labour polled 10,912 and still lost.
Sky now saying
“Organisers say they hope there’ll be a result at glasgow ne around 1230″.
Labour expected to win by 2,000. Conservatives and BNP fighting it out for 3rd place both may hold or just lose their deposit.
Michael Crick on Newsnight has just said that the Tories at the count are suggesting a Labour majority of around 6000.
People going into the polling stations demonstrated a tribal loyalty to Labour, even when angered about Martin’s expenses issues.
Backing up, Ians post
“Sky’s @joeyjones says Labour is likely to have comfortable majority, perhaps as much as 5,000 #glasgowne “.
Crick did not say 6000 but that Labour would win (still a pants result for them).
If you have access to BBC Scotland on satalite or cable (862 on Virgin Media), there is a by election special on after Question Time at 11.45pm.
Unusually, I trust that number far more coming from Sky than from Newsnight. I have a lot of confidence in the neutrality of the BBC as a whole but Crick is a nasty Labour partisan who I wouldn’t believe a word from.
Thanks for that info Peter
Willie Bain (the Labour candidate) looks like Sam Tyler (played by John Simm) in Life in Mars.
The BBC election special in now predicting that the BNP will take third place.
The BNP may poll more than 1,000 votes and both the Tories and LDs less than 1,000 votes. That won’t look good in the cold light of day.
Under 1000 votes would infer on a 34% turnout of 64000 electors that the Tories would lose their deposit.
I think the Tories will save their deposit but the LD’s will lose their deposit.
Peter: most reports are saying that the BNP have come third and also that they are struggling to save their deposit. That suggests the Tories have lost their deposit.
I said the tories can hold their deposit, I’m not so sure as the official announcement is soon to be.
Reports are that the BNP and Conservatives are neck and neck for third – and both will be on the borderline of saving their deposits.
My sources report a Tory third place finish, and deposit saving too…good news…apparently the BNP want a recount of some ballots…things must be just that tight.
Peter may still be right about a tory deposit save!
BNP apparently have lost their deposit, and are placed fourth. Thats good news for the Tories….just waiting for the final announcements now.
tories third, labour a clear first with over 12,000 votes…
BNP 19 votes short of saving their deposit, and 62 short of the Tories in 3rd
Labour – 12,231 votes (59.39%)
SNP – 4,120 votes (20%)
Tory – 1,075 votes (5.22%)
BNP – 27,174 (2.5%)
Total votes cast – 20,595
Voter turnout – 33.2%
Got the BNP vote a bit muddled up in my last post!
Labour – 12,231 votes (59.39%)
SNP – 4,120 votes (20%)
Tory – 1,075 votes (5.22%)
BNP – 1,013 votes (4.92%)
Total votes cast – 20,595
Voter turnout – 33.2%
Good result for Labour and Tories. Bad result for SNP, BNP (just), LDs and Greens.
Andy – how is that a gd result for the tories? To be not even back up to the 6per cent polled in the 1997 wipeout. If there’s a cameron effect in Scotland it won’t win many seats on that showing! Major managed to win 10 in 1992 and now even tory bloggers are hoping for ’4 at best’
Very good result for Labour, exceeding expectations, principally due to the terrible SNP result. Although, of course, if the Labour government weren’t so unpopular, they would be doing much better even than this.
The Conservatives did fine, around where most predictions had placed them. The BNP had quite a strong result, but shot themselves in the foot by predicting third place and a saved deposit, and narrowly missing both.
Sheridan did reasonably well, beating the other socialist candidates out of sight, although nowhere near where he would have been a few years ago. The Lib Dems did as badly as predicted, and the Greens little better.
Smeaton came first out of the independents, but rather below some predictions (I seem to remember rather short odds on him taking third at one point). The SSP did very badly, but the SLP must be ruing ever standing: 4,036 votes last time out with almost no campaign; this time, they put in rather more effort and take only 47 votes. I make that 1.1% of their poll last time – is it a record?
I predicted a Labour majority of around 6000 in this by election, and the result exceeded my expectations.
Perhaps having predicted the Glenrothes and Glasgow NE more accuratly that anybody else on this site will mean that others will take my predictions (as we approach the general election) more seriously.
I am no Gloy Plopwell!
I have to say I was somewhat surprised by the scale of Labour’s victory-whilst of course not being at all surprised by the easy Labour victory. It does seem though that the SNP record in by-elections continues to be fairly poor (one or two notable exceptions aside).
Nevertheless, Willie Bain’s “bring on the general election” cry seemed a little over the top. Certainly he can be confident of victory here-and perhaps every other seat surrounding Glasgow North East, but it doesn’t alter the fact that this was an atypical by-election in which the Conservatives were never in contention. In a general election though, scores of Labour marginals will inevitably fall.
The one delight that I had from this by-election was going to bed last night resigned to the BNP coming ahead of us and snatching 3rd place, and then waking up this morning to find the Conservatives not only held their deposit but held 3rd place after all.
All in all, a fairly unimpressive by-election. Glasgow North East has failed to stand up to the Labour Party and for that they will suffer in the long term as they continue to be completely ignored by both the SNP AND Labour in the future. No change in the national picture. We all now roll along towards the real contest at the general election next year.
The Tories had better brush up on their postal votes. Brown obviously learnt something from his friends in the T&G.
“so Paul Martin and Patricia Ferguson may well have had a heavier postbag of late.”
yes, Willie Bain website listed them under the “People here to help you” contacts.
And they were the fist Labour people thanked by him in his speech this night
Wille BAIN (Labour) 12,231 [59.4 N/A]
David KERR (SNP) 4,120 [20.0 +2.3]
Ruth DAVIDSON (Cons) 1,075 [5.2 N/A]
===Deposits Saved Above This Line===
Charlie BAILLIE (BNP) 1,013 [4.9 +1.7]
Tommy SHERIDAN (Sol) 794 [3.9 N/A]
Eileen BAXENDALE (LibDems) 474 [2.3 N/A]
David DOHERTY (SGP) 332 [1.6 N/A]
John SMEATON (JT) 258 [1.2 N/A]
Kevin McVEY (SSP) 152 [0.7 -4.2]
Mickey HUGHES (-) 54 [0.3 N/A]
Louise McDAID (SLP) 47 [0.2 -14.0]
Mev BROWN (Ind) 32 [0.2 N/A]
Colin CAMPBELL (TILT) 13 [0.1 N/A]
Not the first time the Lib Dems have finished 6th in a Scottish by-election =S And the Socialist Labour Party plunge 14 percentage points, one of the biggest slumps in by-election history!
I think there’s no doubt this is a pretty good result for Labour,
I wonder whether this is an area where they just are completely rock solid (unlike other bits of Glasgow which have been lost at various moments),
but I’m not sure what the wider implications of it are.
It would appear to indicate there will be no Labour meltdown in Scotland, although the SNP will still do pretty well.
For the Conservatives – not too bad.
My wish last night was that the Conservatives finished 3rd and saved their deposit – both were achieved. Those who say how bad a result it is for the Conservatives might like to recall Labour’s performance in Henley last year (5th place and 3% of the vote!)
This result raises the possibility of a North/South divide with both Labour and the Tories consolidating in their Northern/Southern heartlands thus potentially leading to a hung parliament. I am rather surprised that Labour did well, though that can be down to the local candidate. BTW is a Labour gain or hold?
I am more suprised about how badly the SNP did – polling less than they did in 2005. The problems with candidate selection cannot have helped, but other than that, I cannot readily explain why they did so poorly