Glasgow North East
2005 Results:
Speaker: 15153 (53.3%)
SNP: 5019 (17.7%)
Socialist Labour: 4036 (14.2%)
SSP: 1402 (4.9%)
Scot Unionist: 1266 (4.5%)
BNP: 920 (3.2%)
Independent: 622 (2.2%)
Majority: 10134 (35.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Springburn.
2001 Result
Labour: 16053 (66.6%)
SNP: 4675 (19.4%)
Other: 3376 (14%)
Majority: 11378 (47.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 1893 (6%)
Labour: 22534 (71.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 1349 (4.3%)
SNP: 5208 (16.5%)
Referendum: 186 (0.6%)
Other: 407 (1.3%)
Majority: 17326 (54.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A grim slice of north-east Glasgow, scarred by gangs, deprivation and hard drugs. The innermost Dennistoun area retains the original Victorian tenements and has undergone some gentrification becoming popular with students and young professionals, to the north there are new developments on the outskirts of Glasgow at Robroyston. The rest of the seat though consists of the some of the most degraded, deprived and crime-ridden parts of the UK: the heroin-ravaged Possilpark, the tower blocks of Sighthill and Red Road, decayed housing estates of Springburn and the amenity-free Milton, product of earlier attempts at slum clearance.
As with most of Glasgow, this is a solid Labour bastion. In 2005 the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats followed the sometime convention of not standing against the Speaker seeking re-election, but Michael Martin was opposed by the SNP as well as several fringe parties. Arthur Scargill`s Socialist Labour party achieved 14% of the vote in the absence of a actual Labour candidate on the ballot paper.
Current MP: Willie Bain(Labour) Born Glasgow. Educated at St Rochs Secondary and Strathclyde University. Law lecturer. First elected as MP for Glasgow North East in 2009 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88156
Male: 46.9%
Female: 53.1%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 22.2%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 69.3%
Muslim: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 9.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 52%
Owner-Occupied: 38.8%
Social Housing: 51.3% (Council: 36.7%, Housing Ass.: 14.6%)
Privately Rented: 4.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.1%
2009 By-election
Michael Martin was forced to announce his resignation as Speaker in May 2009, having been openly criticised over his response to the expenses scandal and having clearly lost the support of many MPs. He formally stepped down as an MP on the 22nd June 2009, precipitating a by-election, which after a long delay over the recess was set for the 12th November 2009. The by-election was an easy victory for Labour, holding the seat with a majority of almost 40% on a record-low turnout for a Scottish by-election of only 33%.
By-election result
Willie Bain (Labour): 12231 (59.4%)
David Kerr (SNP): 4120 (20.0%)
Ruth Davidson (Conservative): 1075 (5.2%)
Charlie Baillie (BNP): 1013 (4.9%)
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity): 794 (3.9%)
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrat): 474 (2.3%)
David Doherty (Green): 332 (1.6%)
John Smeaton (Jury Team): 258 (1.2%)
Kevin McVey (SSP): 152 (0.7%)
Mikey Hughes (no description): 54 (0.3%)
Louise McDaid (Socialist Labour): 47 (0.2%)
Mev Brown (Independent): 32 (0.2%)
Colin Campbell (TILT): 13 (0.1%)
Majority: 8111 (39.4%)
By-election candidates: 
Charlie Baillie (BNP) Born Glasgow. Electrical contractor. Contested Scotland in 2009 European elections.William Bain (Labour) law lecturer.
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrat) Former social worker. South Lanarkshire councillor.
Mev Brown (Independent) Educated at Napier University. Project worker. Contested Edinburgh East 2005 as a Conservative, Livingston by-election 2005 as an Independent, Moray by-election to the Scottish Parliament 2006 as NHS First, Central Scotland and Airdrie & Shotts in 2007 Scottish elections as NHS First and Scotland in the 2009 European elections for the Jury Team.
Colin Campbell (The Individuals Labour and Tory)
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) Former journalist and documentary maker, currently studying at Glasgow University.
David Doherty (Green) Educated at the University of Strathclyde.
Mikey Hughes (No description) Born 1974. Blind since the age of 23. Educated at St Michaels Academy, Kilwinning and Paisley University. Radio producer and presenter. Runner up in Channel 4`s 2008 series of Big Brother.
David Kerr (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews University. BBC reporter and former Editor of Newsnight Scotland. Contested Falkirk West by-election 2000.
Louise McDaid (Socialist Labour Party) Chair of the Farepak victims campaign. Contested Cunninghame North 1997, Ayrshire North and Arran 2001, Scotland 2009 European elections.
Kevin McVey (SSP) 
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) Born 1964, Glasgow. Educated at Lourdes Secondary and Stirling University. Former member of Labour and the Militant Tendency, he was a prominent poll tax rebel and campaigner against Faslane Navel Base, for which he was twice jailed. A leading figure in the creation of the Scottish Socialist party, which he lead from its creation in 1998 until 2004. Shortly after his resignation the News of the World published allegations that Sheridan had attended swingers parties, Sheridan sued for libel and won, despite members of the SSP tesitfying against him. Sheridan subsequently resigned from the SSP and founded a new party, Solidarity. Sheridan has subsequently been charged with perjury in relation to the libel trial, the hearing is expected later in 2009. Glasgow councillor 1992-2003. MSP for Glasgow 1999-2007. Contested Glasgow Pollock 1992, 1997 as Scottish Militant Labour. Contested 2009 European elections for No2EU.
John Smeaton (Jury Team) born 1976, Bishopton. Educated at Park Mains High School. Airport baggage handler, who in 2007 tackled a terrorist during an attack on Glasgow airport. Awarded the Queen`s Gallantry Medal in 2007.
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Labour are likely to regain that seat but the SNP will take Ochil.
The SNP also need to gain a seat like Dundee West to offset any loss of Perth (they should hold Angus).
I don’t think the total number of SNP MP’s in Scotland will rise (while the will gain and lose seats).
I strongly agree with H. Hemmelig’s post. The good result for Labour here is pardoxically a very poor sign for them in England and Wales.
There have persistently been reports on this site for individual seats in England and Wales that “moderately safe” Labour seats which that party should expect to retain on the basis of national opinion poll results are actually in the balance. For instance the Southampton seats, Stoke on Trent South, and Cardiff South and West (I am sad to report these last two in that whilst I no longer support Labour I have Labour friends in Cardiff, but our role here is to report what is psephogically, not what we want to be). I have thought, and still think, one reason may that Labour may have apporached bedrock in the swathe of Tory seats across Southern England, and in Tory/LibDem marginals. However, if Labour is retaining its support in Scotland, which is perhaps unsurprising given the number of Scottish ministers and Labour’s gross favouritism towards Scotland on matters such as university fees and care allowances, not to speak of huge bailouts by a Scottish PM and Chancellor for historically Scottish based banks, clearly this implies a higher swing away from Labour elsewhere.
Obviously, the result is a disater for the LibDems. It appears that the LibDems are making little progress against Labour in England,. and in discussing LibDem prospects against Labour it was suggested that to make some progress they would need to take seats like Edinburgh North where they are close behind in Scotland. I know Edinburgh is very different from Glasgow, and politically from the rest of Scotland also. However, from this by-election result it would appear that they LIbDems are not looking at picking up seats anywhere, but at seeing where they can stave off defeat in the seats they already hope.
There is an interesting article on Conservativehome which develops the same point made my HH
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2009/11/mountaintoclimb.html
I think it remains somewhat difficult to work out what the implications elsewhere are – I feel there will be some in Scotland even though I expect the SNP to still do well.
It is logical that if the polls are right overall and Labour’s heartland support is simultaneously holding better than expected, then that would confirm the Tories are doing better somewhere else – perhaps marginals,
but it could be a bit of both….
it may also show that something is being picked up below the radar and predictions of a Labour wipeout are a bit overblown.
Yes, if the Tories are up from 14 to 18% and the SNP up from 20 to 25% in Westminster polls compaired to 2005, while Labour are down into the upper thirties – this could present Labour with serious problems in Lab/ Con and Lab/ SNP marginals.
Gordon Brown has had a by election result which is a sliver lining and it has been wipped of the front pages of the newspapers and newsheadlines by more major events. It’s now todays chip paper.
[...] however, I do want to comment on the result of the Glasgow North-East by-election.If you look at ukpollingreport, you will see since 1997, Labour has polled fewer votes at each subsequent election, although [...]
Did anyone see the documentary on John Smeaton’s campaign on BBC 1 last night? I thought the Jury Team was just supposed to be an umbrella group of independents so I was surprised to see him being grilled by journalists on Jury Team policies on Referendums etc. Could it be that Sir Paul Judge is in fact doing “a Goldsmith”?
I’m sure the 2010 Election will be much of the same in Scotland, Labour holding onto the central belt, the SNP are threatening up north and the Tories in the west.
The SNP have reselected David Kerr and the Lib Dems have reselected Eileen Baxendale