Glasgow North
2005 Results:
Labour: 11001 (39.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7663 (27.4%)
SNP: 3614 (12.9%)
Conservative : 2441 (8.7%)
Other: 3202 (11.5%)
Majority: 3338 (12%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Maryhill.
2001 Result
Conservative: 1162 (5.2%)
Labour: 13420 (60.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 2372 (10.7%)
SNP: 3532 (15.9%)
Other: 1745 (7.8%)
Majority: 9888 (44.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 1747 (5.9%)
Labour: 19301 (64.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2119 (7.1%)
SNP: 5037 (16.9%)
Referendum: 77 (0.3%)
Other: 1440 (4.8%)
Majority: 14264 (48%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Ann McKechin(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Erin Boyle (Conservative)Ann McKechin(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Katy Gordon (Liberal Democrat) Patrick Grady (SNP) Martin Bartos (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69010
Male: 47.1%
Female: 52.9%
Under 18: 17.6%
Over 60: 16.3%
Born outside UK: 9.2%
White: 92.3%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 4.7%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 1.8%
Christian: 55.5%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 3.3%
Sikh: 0.6%
Graduates 16-74: 33.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26%
Owner-Occupied: 49.9%
Social Housing: 30.6% (Council: 14.3%, Housing Ass.: 16.2%)
Privately Rented: 16.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.2%
Ladbrokes:
Labour 2/7
Liberal Democrats 5/1
SNP 5/1
Conservatives 66/1
Greens 100/1
Labour hold. Majority 1000-3000
The Liberal vote shall falter backwards here, as across Scotland- the SNP will increase their vote share here to around 22-24% (doubling their vote, but not enough to beat labour).
Sadly- labour hold.
Rumour has it that the Libdem candidate here – Katy Gordon – may have been involved in some sordid vote buying exercise. Of course it is only a rumour, but keep your eyes peeled for the pro-Labour Glasgow papers like the Record and the Evening Times running some pretty scathing stories.
Watch this space – you heard it here first!
I have just watched my recording of the BBC Parliament Channel 1959 General Election and this was one of the seats which was televised, as it is made up of the whole of what was Glasgow Woodside and also contained much of the safe Tory Glasgow Hillhead and the safe Labour Glasgow Maryhill (which cancel each other out), meaning that the boundaries would be a similar social make up to Woodside.
The Conservatives retained the seat but with a majority reduced from 4303 to 2084.
The programme reported Lab Gains from Con in Glasgow Craigton, Glasgow Scotstoun (which fell by over 3000) and Oldham East (and the following day, the Conservatives also lost two further Scottish seats; Ayrshire Central and Lanark) against a background of many Con Gans from Lab.
The Conservatives did just gain the adjacent Glasgow Kelvingrove (but this was lost to Labour at a by election and had a far more substantial Conservative majority in 1955).
David Butler advised that in a line drawin between the Bristol Channel and the Wash at Norfolk/ Linc’ that there was a swing of 2% from Lab to Con to the South and well under 1% to the North. There was a swing of over 1.3% from Con to Lab in Scotland (over 2% in Glasgow, but far less in Edinburgh – where the Conservatives came so close to taking Edinburgh East).
The BBC highlighted that the North South political divide began in 1959, not in the 1980’s.
I could see Labour’s vote fall here but their majority increase. I think there will be a very low turnout here.
The SNP’s performance in NE means that the SNP might not take 2nd place and may even be in danger of losing 3rd place to the Tories.
Labour: 10000
Liberal Democrat: 5500
SNP: 5000
Conservative : 4500
Other: 3500
Majority: 4500
There seem to be a lot of seats where people are predicting Labour will win with 10-15,000 votes. Won’t do much for the national share to be it mildly.
Iain Mackintosh says,
“The SNP’s performance in NE means that the SNP might not take 2nd place and may even be in danger of losing 3rd place to the Tories.”
GNE did not do much for the status of the Tories or the LibDems in Glasgow either
Here is my golden rule for the SNP in 2010:-
The SNP will not finish in a lower position in any constituency in 2010 than they did in 2005.
So, you are right Iain not to place the Tories above the SNP in your forecast figures here-it isn’t going to happen.
I think the Tories might outpoll the SNP in the old Glasgow Hillhead part of this seat but the SNP will greatly outpoll the Tories in the former Glasgow Maryhill part. This seat is made up of the more affluent parts of both these old seats. The SNP were never strong in Hillhead, and were extreemly weak in the posher parts further North of the Clyde.
The result might be like Glasgow Cathcart in 2001 where the Tories came within a wisker of regaining 2nd place, and it was the strong LD performance in 2005 which pushed the Tories into 4th place in the successive Glasgow South.
Glasgow North constituency covers a number of former Tory wards -
Kelvindale (Tory till 1999)
Kelvinside (Tory till 1995)
Botanic Gardens (Tory till 1984)
Partick East (Tory till 1980)
North Kelvin (Tory till 1980)
Woodside (Tory till 1980)
I think the Lib Dem vote will slump but the will just retain 2nd place. Prior to Glasgow NE, I might have thought the SNP would come 2nd. Now I think that there will only be 1000 votes between the Liberals, SNP and the Tories here.
I think this constituency could end up similar to Kelvin in the Scottish Elections (although the boundaries are different, they deprivation levels are similar) which means the results would be:
Labour
SNP
Green
Lib Dem
Conservative
This constituency is not really that poor. It covers the far more affluent parts of Glasgow Kelvin and also includes the very affluent area of Kelvindale/ Kelvinside moved from Glasgow Hillhead to Glasgow Anniesland in 1997.
The constituency also includes the more affluent parts of Glasgow Maryhill, with the poorest areas joining Glasgow Springburn to form Glasgow NE.
On the whole, this is perhaps a more middle class seat than Glasgow Kelvin (with only Summerston/ Maryhill being the only really poor areas).
The Greens usually do well in Kelvin in EURO and Holyrood elections. I think the SNP will come 2nd but that the LD’s and Tories will still hang on to 3rd and 4th place.
While North Kelvinside, Partick and Hillhead are areas where you can expect the Greens to beat the LD’s and Tories, they won’t do in Hyndland, Kelvindale or Kelvinside. The Tories and the LD’s will also still get more votes than the Greens in traditional working class areas like Summerston and Maryhill.
I think that the final result will be more like this -
Labour: 9000
SNP: 6000
Liberal Democrat: 4500
Conservative : 3500
Green: 3000
Other: 500
Majority: 3000
SNP councillor defects to Scottish Lib Dems:
http://andrewrunning.blogspot.com/2010/02/snp-glasgow-councillor-alex-dingwall.html
Will the change of party of one of the local Cllr’s here (from SNP to Lib Dem) affect much?
I think that the actions of a certain other cooncilor, Steven Purcell, would have more impact.