Glasgow East
2005 Results:
Labour: 18775 (60.7%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Liberal Democrat: 3665 (11.8%)
Conservative: 2135 (6.9%)
Other: 1096 (3.5%)
Majority: 13507 (43.7%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Baillieston.
2001 Result
Conservative: 1580 (6.8%)
Labour: 14200 (61%)
Liberal Democrat: 1551 (6.7%)
SNP: 4361 (18.7%)
Other: 1569 (6.7%)
Majority: 9839 (42.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2468 (7.7%)
Labour: 20925 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 1217 (3.8%)
SNP: 6085 (19.1%)
Referendum: 188 (0.6%)
Other: 970 (3%)
Majority: 14840 (46.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow`s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture. In a city that is Labour to the core anyway, this along with Glasgow South West is one of their two safest seats.
Outgoing MP: John Mason(SNP) born 1957. Accountant and leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2008 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Hamira Khan (Conservative) Educated at Bannerman High School and University of the West of Scotland. PR and communications professional.
Margaret Curran (Labour) born 1958. Educated at Glasgow University. Former lecturer and community worker. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former Minister for Parliamentary business. Contested Glasgow East by-election 2008.
Kevin Ward (Liberal Democrat) Born Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Works for Glasgow Caledonian University student association. John Mason(SNP) born 1957. Accountant and leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2008 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Arthur Misty Thackeray (UKIP) Arthur Misty Thackeray (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89305
Male: 46.7%
Female: 53.3%
Under 18: 25.6%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 1.5%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 73.2%
Graduates 16-74: 7.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 50.4%
Owner-Occupied: 46.7%
Social Housing: 45.8% (Council: 29.9%, Housing Ass.: 15.8%)
Privately Rented: 2.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.6%
2008 By-election
David Marshall resigned from Parliament on the 30th June due to a stress related illness. The by-election was held on 24th July and saw the SNP overturn the Labour majority with a swing of over 22%.
By-election result:
John Mason (SNP) 11277 (43.1%) +26.1%
Margaret Curran (Labour) 10912 (41.7%) -19.0%
Davena Rankin (Conservative) 1639 (6.3%) -0.6%
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) 915 (3.5%) -8.3%
Frances Curran (SSP) 555 (2.1%) -1.4%
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) 512 (1.9%)
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) 232 (0.9%)
Chris Creighton (Independent) 67 (0.3%)
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) 65 (0.2%)
Majority: 365 (1.4%)
By-election Candidates:Margaret Curran (Labour) born 1958. Educated at Glasgow University. Former lecturer and community worker. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former Minister for Parliamentary business.
Davena Rankin (Conservative) Educated at Knightswood Secondary school and Sussex University. Commercial manager at Glasgow Caledonian University. Contested Glasgow Kelvin 2001, Glasgow Cathcart & Glasgow list in 2007 Scottish elections.
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Maths teacher. Contested Rutherglen and Hamilton West.John Mason (SNP) born 1957. Accountant and now full time leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998.
Frances Curran (Scottish Socialist Party) born 1961, Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews Secondar School. Former Labour party member, and NEC member. Member of the Scottish Parliament for West of Scotland 2003-2007. Contested Paisley South 1997 by-election and 2001. Joint national spokesperson for the SSP.
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) born Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews School. Local government officer. Contested Glasgow Region in 2003 Scottish elections for the SSP, 2007 for Solidarity.
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) Retired GP. Contested Glasgow region in 2007 Scottish elections.
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) Blackpool publican who in 2007 was the first to be prosecuted for continuing to allow smoking in his pub. Contested Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008. Will contest Blackpool South at the next general election.
Chris Creighton (Independent) Politics student at the University of Glasgow. Contested Glasgow Cathcart by-election to the Scottish Parliament 2005.
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I’m trying to work something out, and I’m hoping that someone could give me some advice….
How do apply the current opinion polls to seats where there was a significant shift in a by-election (which is this seat, Livingston & Dunfermline)?
What is the correct formula/methodology?
Help please….
The Lib Dems have selected Kevin Ward here
Labour’s big win in Glasgow North East is surely good news for Curran and Labour in this seat, no? The Scotsman reports Labour is increasingly confident of retaking. Thoughts?
Glasgow would fit exactly to the electoral quota for a 500 seat commons (88000).
South Glasgow could be divided into two constituencies -
Glasgow Cathcart
Ward 1 Linn (21751)
Ward 2 Newlands/ Auldburn (17601)
Ward 7 Langside (18326)
Ward 8 Southside Central (22928)
Glasgow Govan
Ward 3 Greater Pollok (22270)
Ward 4 Craigton (22855)
Ward 5 Govan (23153)
Ward 6 Pollokshields (17109)
North Glasgow could be divided into three constituencies, each made up of 4 whole wards and also a third of the Anderston / City Ward (which has an electorate of 20527) -
Glasgow Hillhead
Ward 11 Hillhead (20897)
Ward 12 Partick West (23641)
Ward 13 Garscadden / Scotstounhill (20992)
Ward 14 Drumchaple/ Anniesland (20415)
The Kelvingrove third of Ward 10 (Anderston/ City)
Glasgow Shettleston
Ward 9 Calton (15165)
Ward 18 East Centre (21075)
Ward 19 Shettleston (20649)
Ward 20 Ballieston (23297)
The City Centre third of Ward 10 (Anderston/ City)
Glasgow Springburn
Ward 15 Maryhill / Kelvin (21710)
Ward 16 Canal (22383)
Ward 17 Springburn (15480)
Ward 21 North East (23378)
The Townhead third of Ward 10 (Anderston/ City)
There will be three really interesting seats to watch in Glasgow at the next Holyrood elections. Predictions please?
Glasgow Kelvin -
Loses – Scotstoun, Whiteinch and Broomhill
Gains – North Kelvinside and Woodside
Boundary changes make little difference to this key Lab/ SNP marginal. This contest for this seat was almost as bitter as Glasgow Govan.
Glasgow Southside (Glasgow Govan) -
Loses – All of Govan except Ibrox.
Retains – Pollokshields and Shawlands
Gains – Gorbals and Hutchestontown
Boundary changes turn this very marginal SNP seat into a very marginal Labour seat. The incumbant SNP MSP and minister Nicola Sturgeon is likely to defend this seat.
Glasgow Shettleston -
This is effectively a merger between the current Glasgow Shettleston Holyrood seat represented by
Frank McAveety and the Glasgow Ballieston Holyrood seat represented by Margaret Curran (Labour candidate in the Glasgow East By Election). The new boundaries are very similar to the Glasgow East Westminster constituency.
Curran has been re-adopted for Glasgow East and it is my view that she will just push out John Mason next May.
My view is that John Mason will then be selected by the SNP to fight Margaret Currans vacated Holyrood constituency.
What will be interesting is whether Frank McAveety choses to take on Nicola Sturgeon on Glasgow Southside or John Mason in Glasgow Shettleston. I think he will go for the latter.
All these seats are likely to be close because the opinion polls suggest that the next Holyrood elections will be similar.
If Frank McAveety fights Glasgow Southside, John Mason would have a better chance in Glasgow Shettleston. If he fights Glasgow Shettleston, Nicola Sturgeon will have a better chance in Glasgow Southside. This assumes John Mason loses to Curran in Round Two of Glasgow East in the next few months.
The most likely SNP seat in Glasgow in 2011 will be Glasgow Kelvin, which other than Broomhill, loses some solid Labour territory in Scotstoun and Whiteinch. The incoming North Kelvinside and Woodside areas are far more marginal and given the closesness of the 2007 result in Kelvin, Pauleen MacNeil could be effectively seeking to gain a notional SNP seat. She is not alone, Nicola Sturgeon will be seeking to gain a notional Labour seat.
At least Nicola Sturgeon can still return to Holyrood as a list MSP via the back door if she loses in 2010. MacNeil can’t because Labour don’t let constituency MSP’s stand on the list and it is impossible for Labour to win any list seats in Glasgow because they would need to lose over a third of their constituency seats to do so.
In his autobiography Sir Alex Ferguson mentions a Scottish footballer called Farnk McAveety. Is that the same person as the MSP?
“FRANK” sorry………
No…different man. He was Leader of Glasgow City Council before becoming an MSP.
The footballer is Frank McAvennie.
No seriously Coming Through The Rye, if you read Sir Alex’s autobiography there really is a player mentioned called McAveety playing for a Scottish league club, not Frank McAvennie who was best known for his successful spell as a goalscorer for West Ham. However Peter clearly knows what he’s talking about & I totally accept what he’s just said. Just 2 people with the same name – it happens. (It occurred to me because apparently Henry McLeish was once a footballer.)
The Conservatives have changed their candidate – Hamira Khan is the new candidate
I wonder if High Heid-yin Purcell’s indiscretions have boosted Mason’s chances of holding this seat.