Glasgow East
2005 Results:
Labour: 18775 (60.7%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Liberal Democrat: 3665 (11.8%)
Conservative: 2135 (6.9%)
Other: 1096 (3.5%)
Majority: 13507 (43.7%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Baillieston.
2001 Result
Conservative: 1580 (6.8%)
Labour: 14200 (61%)
Liberal Democrat: 1551 (6.7%)
SNP: 4361 (18.7%)
Other: 1569 (6.7%)
Majority: 9839 (42.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2468 (7.7%)
Labour: 20925 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 1217 (3.8%)
SNP: 6085 (19.1%)
Referendum: 188 (0.6%)
Other: 970 (3%)
Majority: 14840 (46.6%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow’s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture. In a city that is Labour to the core anyway, this along with Glasgow South West is one of their two safest seats.
Current MP: John Mason (SNP) born 1957. Accountant and leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2008 by-election.
Candidates: 
Margaret Curran (Labour) born 1958. Educated at Glasgow University. Former lecturer and community worker. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former Minister for Parliamentary business. Contested Glasgow East by-election 2008.
Pat McPhee (Conservative) North Ayrshire councillor.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89305
Male: 46.7%
Female: 53.3%
Under 18: 25.6%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 1.5%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 73.2%
Graduates 16-74: 7.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 50.4%
Owner-Occupied: 46.7%
Social Housing: 45.8% (Council: 29.9%, Housing Ass.: 15.8%)
Privately Rented: 2.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.6%
2008 By-election
David Marshall resigned from Parliament on the 30th June due to a stress related illness. The by-election was held on 24th July and saw the SNP overturn the Labour majority with a swing of over 22%.
By-election result:
John Mason (SNP) 11277 (43.1%) +26.1%
Margaret Curran (Labour) 10912 (41.7%) -19.0%
Davena Rankin (Conservative) 1639 (6.3%) -0.6%
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) 915 (3.5%) -8.3%
Frances Curran (SSP) 555 (2.1%) -1.4%
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) 512 (1.9%)
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) 232 (0.9%)
Chris Creighton (Independent) 67 (0.3%)
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) 65 (0.2%)
Majority: 365 (1.4%)
By-election Candidates:Margaret Curran (Labour) born 1958. Educated at Glasgow University. Former lecturer and community worker. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former Minister for Parliamentary business.
Davena Rankin (Conservative) Educated at Knightswood Secondary school and Sussex University. Commercial manager at Glasgow Caledonian University. Contested Glasgow Kelvin 2001, Glasgow Cathcart & Glasgow list in 2007 Scottish elections.
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Maths teacher. Contested Rutherglen and Hamilton West.John Mason (SNP) born 1957. Accountant and now full time leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998.
Frances Curran (Scottish Socialist Party) born 1961, Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews Secondar School. Former Labour party member, and NEC member. Member of the Scottish Parliament for West of Scotland 2003-2007. Contested Paisley South 1997 by-election and 2001. Joint national spokesperson for the SSP.
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) born Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews School. Local government officer. Contested Glasgow Region in 2003 Scottish elections for the SSP, 2007 for Solidarity.
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) Retired GP. Contested Glasgow region in 2007 Scottish elections.
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) Blackpool publican who in 2007 was the first to be prosecuted for continuing to allow smoking in his pub. Contested Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008. Will contest Blackpool South at the next general election.
Chris Creighton (Independent) Politics student at the University of Glasgow. Contested Glasgow Cathcart by-election to the Scottish Parliament 2005.
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True, but it does give the sisterhood an easy statistic - and makes it less compelling to do the same in Michael Martin’s seat…….
Margaret Curran re-selected by Labour
She seemed like a good candidate who had to defend a seat at the nadir of the government’s fortunes…
It’s difficult to predict in some ways. I thought Sarah Teather had no chance of holding Brent East in the 2005 general election given that it was one of Labour’s safest seats beforehand but she doubled her majority.
The re-adoption of Margaret Curren has presented Labour with a serious problem.
If Margaret Curran defeats John Mason, and there was a Holyrood by election in Glasgow Ballieston, John Mason would have an excelent change of winning.
Alternatively, if Curran held off till May 2011, Mason could also win the new and by then vacant Holyrood Glasgow East seat which, with the exception of Greater Easterhouse, will share the same boundaries.
An SNP defeat in Glasgow East would not necessarily be the end of he SNP in that area. When Jim Sillars was defeated in Glasgow Govan in the 1992 general election by Ian Davidson, the SNP went on to win his Govan/ Drumoyne Strathclyde Regional Council Ward by election. They also won Glasgow City Council wards (and retained first past the post local government presence in the area right up until STV in 2007). Also, despite major boundary changes in 1997, the Govan seat remained very marginal until it was recapured by the SNP in 2007.
If the SNP won the Holyrood Glasgow East seat in May 2011, they would lose a seat from the list, so no net gain to the SNP. But we cannot predict at this stage which party would get the extra list seat.
Peter - Which Glasgow East Scottish Parliament seat are you referring to?
There are significant boundary changes for the SP and Glasgow is set to lose a seat.
Tam,
The new Holyrood seats will also adopt compass point names as opposed to names of Glasgow districts.
The new Holyrood seat in this area (currently covered by Glasgow Ballieston and much of Glasgow Shettleston) will be called Glasgow East and will be similar to this Westminster seat with the exception that it will exclude Greater Easterhouse. In many ways, it will be very similar to Glasgow Shettleston as it existed from 1983 - 1997.
I cannot see Margaret Curran resigning in 2010 if she wins Glasgow East (which I think she will), rather she will retire in 2011 which will allow Paul Martin (MSP Glasgow Springburn) to stand in East Glasgow (Holyrood seat).
I understood that Paul Martin was going to stand (eventually, say 2014/ 2015) in Glasgow North East when his father retires, so its more likely that he will seek adoption in the new Glasgow North East holyrood seat (which is the successor to Glasgow Springburn).
Given the present climate why is there so much confidence in Labour retaking this seat?
Is the perception that SNP are failing as a party here as surely the Labour stock is no higher here than elsewhere.
I admit to being new to this game and would greatly welcome explanations to the mis-match between position on “marginal seat list” and bloggers expectations [reflected by Shadsy's odds @Ladbrokes] ANYONE? nickupjohn@hotmail.co.uk