Glasgow East
2005 Results:
Labour: 18775 (60.7%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Liberal Democrat: 3665 (11.8%)
Conservative: 2135 (6.9%)
Other: 1096 (3.5%)
Majority: 13507 (43.7%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Glasgow Baillieston.
2001 Result
Conservative: 1580 (6.8%)
Labour: 14200 (61%)
Liberal Democrat: 1551 (6.7%)
SNP: 4361 (18.7%)
Other: 1569 (6.7%)
Majority: 9839 (42.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2468 (7.7%)
Labour: 20925 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 1217 (3.8%)
SNP: 6085 (19.1%)
Referendum: 188 (0.6%)
Other: 970 (3%)
Majority: 14840 (46.6%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow’s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture. In a city that is Labour to the core anyway, this along with Glasgow South West is one of their two safest seats.
Current MP: John Mason (SNP) born 1957. Accountant and leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2008 by-election.
Candidates:
Pat McPhee (Conservative) North Ayrshire councillor.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89305
Male: 46.7%
Female: 53.3%
Under 18: 25.6%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 1.5%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 73.2%
Graduates 16-74: 7.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 50.4%
Owner-Occupied: 46.7%
Social Housing: 45.8% (Council: 29.9%, Housing Ass.: 15.8%)
Privately Rented: 2.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.6%
2008 By-election
David Marshall resigned from Parliament on the 30th June due to a stress related illness. The by-election was held on 24th July and saw the SNP overturn the Labour majority with a swing of over 22%.
By-election result:
John Mason (SNP) 11277 (43.1%) +26.1%
Margaret Curran (Labour) 10912 (41.7%) -19.0%
Davena Rankin (Conservative) 1639 (6.3%) -0.6%
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) 915 (3.5%) -8.3%
Frances Curran (SSP) 555 (2.1%) -1.4%
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) 512 (1.9%)
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) 232 (0.9%)
Chris Creighton (Independent) 67 (0.3%)
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) 65 (0.2%)
Majority: 365 (1.4%)
By-election Candidates:
Margaret Curran (Labour) born 1958. Educated at Glasgow University. Former lecturer and community worker. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former Minister for Parliamentary business.
Davena Rankin (Conservative) Educated at Knightswood Secondary school and Sussex University. Commercial manager at Glasgow Caledonian University. Contested Glasgow Kelvin 2001, Glasgow Cathcart & Glasgow list in 2007 Scottish elections.
Ian Robertson (Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Maths teacher. Contested Rutherglen and Hamilton West.John Mason (SNP) born 1957. Accountant and now full time leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council. Glasgow councillor since 1998.
Frances Curran (Scottish Socialist Party) born 1961, Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews Secondar School. Former Labour party member, and NEC member. Member of the Scottish Parliament for West of Scotland 2003-2007. Contested Paisley South 1997 by-election and 2001. Joint national spokesperson for the SSP.
Tricia McLeish (Solidarity) born Glasgow. Educated at St Andrews School. Local government officer. Contested Glasgow Region in 2003 Scottish elections for the SSP, 2007 for Solidarity.
Eileen Duke (Scottish Green) Retired GP. Contested Glasgow region in 2007 Scottish elections.
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) Blackpool publican who in 2007 was the first to be prosecuted for continuing to allow smoking in his pub. Contested Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008. Will contest Blackpool South at the next general election.
Chris Creighton (Independent) Politics student at the University of Glasgow. Contested Glasgow Cathcart by-election to the Scottish Parliament 2005.
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568 Responses
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Well if you take a look at the first preference votes from last year, Labour were on 45.97% here, to the SNP candidates’ 33.24%, so a comparable swing to the Glasgow East By-Election would see the SNP candidate win on the first count.
But we all have to remember that it’s no longer FPTP: it’s not enough to come first, and you have to make the quota. Sooner or later, there’s going to be a By-Election where the second-placed candidate ends up taking the seat. Could it be this one?
August 17th, 2008 at 9:00 amAyrshire North and Arran
Has anybody worked out how the 2007 scottish elections would have gone if they had been fought under the Westminister boundaries using sub-constituency data (obviously a Lab hold but in vote terms)?
August 18th, 2008 at 12:41 pmRuislip Northwood
I ahve had a stab at this. If i have allocated the correct polling stations from the Shettleston Holyrood seat to Glasgow East (and I have allocated postal votes proportionately) the constituency vote in Glasgow East was as follows:
Lab 12602 53.8 %
August 18th, 2008 at 6:12 pmSNP 6991 29.8 %
Con 1681 7.2 %
LD 1384 5.9 %
SCP 765 3.3 %
On the face of that, an SNP gain was hardly unsuprising, but what sort of turnout would that ave been Pete?
August 19th, 2008 at 9:55 amRuislip Northwood
Turnout was 38.9% in Baiilieston and 33.4% in Shettleston so I guess between 37-38%
August 19th, 2008 at 10:37 amQuite a bit less then the by which was a sniff short of 2005. Funny with PR in the SP and LG elections 2007 votes would have been more worthwhile. Then again given these no shows generally support Labour I suppose they were at their most useful in 2008.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:09 amRuislip Northwood
“Funny with PR in the SP and LG elections 2007 votes would have been more worthwhile”
The figures I gave are for the constituency vote where this doesnt apply. The turnout on the regional vote was a shade higher (only a couple of percent in each case though). Labours lead over the SNP was somewhat lower on the regional vote too but this was mainly down to the extra choice of ‘others’ principally Solidarity.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:20 am“The figures I gave are for the constituency vote where this doesnt apply”
I suppose that’s true but I was assuming people would go down to the polling station with their preferred party in mind cast the vote for them on the list and LG and vote for the same in the constituency (they’re in the booth anyway so they might as well), but obviously there’s a bit of split ticket.
August 19th, 2008 at 2:47 pmRuislip Northwood
Yes I take your point. Many were not in a position to vote for the same candidate in the constituency as for the list so either they would have split their ticket or abstain in that case. It looks liek the majority did split their ticket as fully 17% of the vote in Glasgow Baillieston on the regional list vote was cast for parties which did not contest the constituency (the largets of these Solidarity, BNP and Green party).
August 19th, 2008 at 3:09 pmI agree though it is somewhat surprisng that turnout was higher in a by-election than for the Holyrood elections, suggesting that to a certain number of Scottish voters, Westminster is still seen as more important.
Ayrshire North and Arran
Thanks fot the figures. Can you tell me what STV wards are within the constituency?
August 21st, 2008 at 1:23 pmRuislip Northwood
It is the whole of the Baillieston and Shettlestone wards plus part of North East ward (Easterhouse, Garthamlock), part of Calton (Parkhead) and part of East Centre (Cranhill, Carntyne)
August 21st, 2008 at 2:06 pmRuislip Northwood
Shettleston. I always seem to want to add an ‘e’ at the end for some reason.
August 21st, 2008 at 2:07 pmBradford South
Pollok is often erroneously “corrected” to Pollock by proofreaders.
August 21st, 2008 at 4:50 pmPages: « 1 … 34 35 36 37 [38] Show All