116 Responses to “Gillingham and Rainham”

1. Tim Jones

   ‘When people realise the implications, it will be as unpopular as the poll tax.’

   I doubt it will prove popular – what taxes are – but the big thing people had against the poll tax was that it was a regressive tax – which hit the poor the hardest

   It almost proved the argument that those on the Left and Centre had long argued, that Thatcher’s policies were intentionally cruel to the less fortunate members of society

   That’s not an argument you would be able to use against this tax (if it were to come into force) and all those people who oppose it strongest are people from the Right much like yourself who tend to oppose most forms of progressive taxation (and most of whom probably supported the poll tax)

   I’m ambivsalent about it at best myself – but I don’t think it would conjour the same feelings of unfairness that the poll tax did

   December 6th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
2. Joe R

   It would probably cost more than it would raise unless it was lowered enough to cover the cost of revaluing everything.

   It is just a terrible idea in practice even if the principle of taxing wealth rather than income is sound.

   December 6th, 2012 at 5:42 pm
3. Barnaby Marder

   I don’t disagree with AKMD – clearly the places he mentions are all more likely Labour gains than anything in Kent. I’d be extremely surprised if the Tories could hang on to either Bedford or Hastings/Rye, in particular. It was my aim to flag up the distinct hardening in the Labour lead – which as Anthony says could be only temporary, of course – and start a bit of a discussion, and in that I can modestly say I’ve succeeded. Chatham & Aylesford remains more within reach than this seat too, of course, and I wouldn’t rule out a gain in S Thanet in the light of Labour’s increasingly good performances in that area. They are all difficult gains though.

   December 6th, 2012 at 5:58 pm
4. Tory

   Labour’s surest successes will be in the East Sussex area: Hastings, Hove, and Brighton Kempton. Beyond those three, I think Labour will find it tough going. Even somewhere like Harlow requires a 5.6% swing, which is not to be taken lightly.

   December 6th, 2012 at 6:11 pm
5. Tory

   I am referring specifically to the south east region there.

   December 6th, 2012 at 6:14 pm
6. Joe R

   I think Harlow will be harder than the average swing suggests. Firstly due to a very low LD vote and secondly because the obvious and high-profile hard graft the MP has put in on fuel, a very populist issue. People will remember that.

   December 6th, 2012 at 8:23 pm
7. Tim Jones

   I’d also expect brighton pavilion to fall to labour in 2015 on current boundaries – i’d say that’s a more likely gain than either kemptown or hove

   i suspect seats those marginals in kent will be harder nuts to crack where UKIP’s performance could be decisive

   i’d expect the tories to hold harlow – they have a popular incumbant and voters in such places are increasingly moving to the Right

   peversely perhaps, labour might find it easier to win back the more middle class seats it lost to the tories in 2015 – many of which they won for the first time ever in 97 – than its traditional marginals but at this stage such talk is premature as i can”t see labour’s poll lead holding out for the next two and a half years

   December 6th, 2012 at 8:38 pm
8. akmd

   I’m not so sure Labour would gain Brighton Pavilion. The Greens seem well entrenched there now and I think they could hold on next time in much the same way as many Lib Dems have held on to seats over the years. I agree with you about Harlow though. I think Rob Halfon will serve at least another term and could even hold on longer than that barring a future Labour landslide.

   December 6th, 2012 at 9:07 pm
9. H.Hemmelig

   Good post Tim.

   It seems Brighton locals like you are more pessimistic about the Greens holding on to Pavilion than outsiders are. I presume their unpopularity on the council has really hurt them.

   Agree with most of the rest of what you say, although it depends what you mean by middle class. I do not see bourgeois middle class suburbia going back to Labour, but the more intellectual and liberal middle class seats maybe. Seats like Broxtowe, Kemptown and Hove would go into the latter category.

   I also believe the Tories will be surprisingly resilient in London, having performed badly there in 2010. Many London marginals are now very polarised and therefore they are not going to experience big swings in either direction….this will benefit the Tories when the national swing is moving against them. You could clearly see this with the Tory vote in the Croydon North by-election in comparison to the other results on the same day.

   December 6th, 2012 at 9:47 pm
10. THE RESULTS

    It will be very interesting to see in what happens in London indeed- In a lot of the formerly safeish Tory seats now held by Labour, the Conservative vote has probably gotten as low as it can. A seat like Tooting or Hammersmith would IMO give a very good indicator of whether or not Cameron stays at No. 10 after the next election.

    December 6th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
11. H.Hemmelig

    “A seat like Tooting or Hammersmith would IMO give a very good indicator of whether or not Cameron stays at No. 10 after the next election.”

    Labour will probably hold both of those seats quite easily in 2015 no matter what.

    A more interesting bellweather would be somewhere like Hendon (Con maj a few hundred), also Westminster North, where the demographics are against Labour.

    December 6th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
12. Joe James B

    It’s hard to see the Kent marginals being easy pickings for Labour at the moment, as I don’t believe there has been very much shift in the Con/Lab swing voter demographic in this region or sub region.

    But if national circumstances do turn out to be very different from 2010, they would win some of these seats.

    December 7th, 2012 at 12:56 am
13. Mike Homfray

    With the LibDem collapse in all but their rural strongholds in the north, and the rise in the Labour vote in marginals, I think Labour only need a few gains in the south – which they will get. I expect an even more polarised electoral map next time.

    I’d be surprised if we gained this one back. I was surprised we won it in the first place.

    Not sure about Harlow, though. It is characterised by huge swings. Stan Newens was a very popular local MP who was dedicated to the area, but he still lost. Ultimately personal votes don’t matter all that much for the main two parties.

    December 7th, 2012 at 10:13 am
14. Joe

    If Harlow was lost I have no doubt Hafron would find a new safe seat for the next election.

    December 7th, 2012 at 10:16 am
15. Tim Jones

    ‘Agree with most of the rest of what you say, although it depends what you mean by middle class. I do not see bourgeois middle class suburbia going back to Labour, but the more intellectual and liberal middle class seats maybe. Seats like Broxtowe, Kemptown and Hove would go into the latter category.’

    I see Labour doing better in 2015 in places like Broxtowe, Kemptown, Bristol West, Hove and Cambridge, than their traditional southern battlegrounds like Dover, Harlow and Thanet

    ‘I’d be surprised if we gained this one back. I was surprised we won it in the first place.’

    I agree with Mike to an extent. Labour got a massive swing here to win in 97 aftrer a good showing for the Tories in 92 – but without knowing the area that well, in hindsight I was more surprised by how well the Tories did in the 1980s in what is a working class southern seat, than Labour winning it in 97 and then holding on until 2010. I don’t see them winning it back next time as such voters are increasingly liable to vote Tory nowadays

    ‘I also believe the Tories will be surprisingly resilient in London, having performed badly there in 2010. ‘

    As with 2010, I don’t think we’ll see many seats change hands in London, and incumbancy might help the Tories hang onto seats like Hendon, Brentford, Enfield North and Croydon Central

    Mike is right though – Labour could win the next election without making any kind of recovery in the South East – and whereas places like East Sussex and Middlesex might be considerably less Tory than they once were, threse are more than counterbalanced than places like Essex and Kent which are swinging ever more in their direction.

    December 7th, 2012 at 10:43 am
16. Blake Reynolds

    Labour selection here:-
    Nominations deadline: 25 January 2013
    Shortlisting meeting: 2 February 2013
    Selection meeting: 1 March 2013

    from http://www.southernfront.org.uk/p/parliamentary-selections.html

    February 20th, 2013 at 11:49 am