Gillingham and Rainham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21624 (46.22%)
Labour: 12944 (27.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 8484 (18.13%)
BNP: 1149 (2.46%)
UKIP: 1515 (3.24%)
Green: 356 (0.76%)
English Democrat: 464 (0.99%)
Others: 250 (0.53%)
Majority: 8680 (18.55%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18115 (41.3%)
Labour: 17615 (40.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6753 (15.4%)
Other: 1431 (3.3%)
Majority: 500 (1.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18367 (40.7%)
Labour: 18621 (41.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6734 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1191 (2.6%)
Other: 254 (0.6%)
Majority: 254 (0.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16510 (39.1%)
Labour: 18782 (44.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5755 (13.6%)
UKIP: 933 (2.2%)
Other: 232 (0.5%)
Majority: 2272 (5.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18207 (35.9%)
Labour: 20187 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9649 (19%)
Referendum: 1492 (2.9%)
Other: 1148 (2.3%)
Majority: 1980 (3.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Gillingham and Rainham as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Rehman Chishti (Conservative) born Pakistan. Barrister and adviser to Francis Maude. Medway councillor since 2003. Contested Horsham for Labour in 2005 before defecting to the Conservative party in March 2006.
Rehman Chishti (Conservative) born Pakistan. Barrister and adviser to Francis Maude. Medway councillor since 2003. Contested Horsham for Labour in 2005 before defecting to the Conservative party in March 2006. 
Paul Clark(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Stamp (Liberal Democrat) born 1982, Gillingham. Educated at Rochester Math School and University of Nottingham. Estate Agent. Contested Gillingham 2005.
Trish Marchant (Green)Robert Oakley (UKIP) Brian Ravenscroft (BNP)
Dean Lacey (English Democrat) George Meegan (Medway Independent)Gordon Bryan (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95773
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 17.6%
Born outside UK: 6.2%
White: 94.9%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 2.7%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 72.6%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 1.1%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 11.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.9%
Owner-Occupied: 79.1%
Social Housing: 10.5% (Council: 7.5%, Housing Ass.: 3%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.3%
But it’s not that atypical of North Kent in that respect Andy.
Rehman Chishti will cost the Conservatives this seat, as the votes have no time for turncoats.
That comment is a little more sensible than some of Ian’s (his comment in Fife NE is particularly ludicrous). But it would only make a difference in the event of Labour being clearly ahead of the Tories nationally. A number of defectors in the past have however shown that there is little difference between their results and others of their new party. Though Shaun Woodward is an obvious exception.
Besides, Chishti wasn’t a high-profile Labour figure, despite being a candidate. An MP, with an established public image, is rather different.
The biggest problem is voter apathy, myself included. I have always been politically aware but feel totally marginalised and demotivated.
I have always voted Labour but now feel there is not one party that sufficiently reflects my opinions.
My fault for being Middle Aged, White and Male I suppose.
Brown and his cronies have been a disaster, don’t trust Cameron the Toff and Liberals are a waste of a vote.
Stop immigration, pull down speed & CCTV cameras,return utilities and railways to public ownership and rid us of the PC brigade and I’ll vote for you !!
This seat has a notional Labour majority of 15 votes or 0.03% on the Rallings and Thrasher official figures (also in the Almanac).
It is in my opinion therefore not a true critical marginal as Labour could lose it and retain an overall majority – it is no.1 on the national Conservative target list from Labour.
Given the current state of the polls, the notional idea that this seat is Number 1 on the Tory target list is purely academic.
I have noticed in past elections that politicans persisitnetly make the mistake at concentrating on seats that are marginal on the basis of results at the last election, rather than those which look like being close on the basis of the opinion polls. For instance, Labour could have won more seats in 1997 if they had campaigned harder in areas like East Anglia where the Toires won a number of seats with a small majority.
If the state of the parties at the next election is anything like the polls at present, Dover is the only seat in Kent at all “in play”. For those activists whose viewpoint centres on Medway, the seat to concentrate on is Chatham and Aylesford.
Whatever you think of Steve,Gillingham’s views, he accurately reflects opinions that are costing Labour many votes in Kent. But note that being against immigration is not the same as racism. Very many people in Kent believe that immigration is currently out of control, but get on well with existing foreign-born residents and are quite prepared to vote for them if they have the best policies and are the best candidate. Thanks for the post, Steve.
“My fault for being Middle Aged, White and Male I suppose”
Labour are repaying your prvious support by bringing in new ‘equality’ laws to make it legal to discrimate against you.
I wouldnt seek to advise you how to vote, but there are parties who articulate your frustration. UKIP would cover most of your shopping list I believe, but not on public ownership. You might need to shop further afield for that..
So UKIP would nationalise the railways and electricity companies would they, Pete?
My family mostly live now in North Kent (although not in this constituency but in the two either side) and I would concur with the comments about the levels of real anger with Labour – over immigration especially but also over those boring bread and butter issues – fuel prices, utility bills, food prices.
I think Labour will be really stuffed across North Kent come the GE – not even the hard-working Welshman in Dover will survive the mauling this electorate is ready to give Labour.
I see you’ve already answered that question, Pete!! I really should read stuff more closely!
UKIP have selected Bob Oakley here.
Paul Clark now a Transport Minister.
Paul Clark is ‘unpaid’ in his current role now. Brings back memories of him holding John Prescott’s croquet mallet in 2006. This time Paul Clark will be tea boy in the transport office.
I would guess the swing here could be quite large – about 7%.
Labour and LDs each down about 4, UKIP down 1, with the Tories picking up the extra votes.
So something like;
Cons 23000
Lab 16500
Lib Dem 5500
Others 1000
Record breaker George Meegan has announced he is to stand as an Independent candidate here: http://bit.ly/6yKQsO.
Which seat was Gillingham in before 1918?
Gillingham itself was in the Chatham constituency but outlying areas of the current seat were split between Medway and Faversham county seats.
Thank you
Cons Gain/Hold= 5,000 maj
Its just possible the Lib Dem vote could go up just a little here, if LD voters who have been voting tactically for labour decide that party are a dead loss this time and return to their first paty of choice….
why do you not show George Meegans name as a candidate for Gillingham and Rainham? he is the Medway Independent Party candidate for this seat.
Con Gain
Maj 3900
Con maj 5,500
Lib Den Gain
Maj 300
^ good joke.
Con maj 5000
CON HOLD
Like in several other east Kent seats the Tory majority seems to have exceeded expectations.
At the moment it seems fairly unlikely that Labour will win it back at the next election, but there is of course a very, very long way to go.
First time incumbancy should aid Rehman Chishti.
Ultimately, the result may depend on how the economy does, but Labour fell so much here maybe even a rocky economy wouldn’t quite be enough.
Of course this isn’t a key seat for Labour anyway, as with the present boundaries they can win a majority without winning this seat. Though we’ll have to see what the boundary commission comes up with.
I haven’t seen much of this MP since he was elected.
Why single him out? I haven’t seen much of MANY of the new MPs!
The problem is that bar a very privileged few, the BBC’s politics programmes don’t really want to know about new MPs until they’ve become somthing more important. In the old days, Westminster Live would interview something like 3 MPs from each party per programme and give a lot of opportunity for newcomers to make their mark on the TV.
Unfortunately, the new BBC format usually has a resident guest on each programme that is usually an established well known politician or frontbencher and then they only ask one or two MPs to come on each programme for a specific segmant (usually the usual suspects).
Question Time is no place for new MPs (again, bar a select few who seem to be picked out as rising stars or the awkward squad); This Week (which is otherwise an excellent programme) is more interested in the commetariat or celebrity and politics; and there isn’t really much else excpet perhaps an interview on Newsnight or one of the radio or other channel news programmes.
In my experience, the best place to see new MPs is actually on the Sunday Politics Show-specifically the local regional segment when you will see many newly elected MPs from around your local region…at least, you do in the West Midlands.
If reports about the changes the BBC are to announce tomorrow are true however, we may see a lot more political coverage on BBC2 in the coming years and therefore more opportunities for new members to appear.