Gedling
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17962 (37.27%)
Labour: 19821 (41.13%)
Liberal Democrat: 7350 (15.25%)
BNP: 1598 (3.32%)
UKIP: 1459 (3.03%)
Majority: 1859 (3.86%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21902 (47%)
Conservative: 17025 (36.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6413 (13.8%)
Other: 1251 (2.7%)
Majority: 4876 (10.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16518 (37.5%)
Labour: 20329 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6070 (13.8%)
UKIP: 741 (1.7%)
Other: 411 (0.9%)
Majority: 3811 (8.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16785 (38.3%)
Labour: 22383 (51.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4648 (10.6%)
Majority: 5598 (12.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20588 (39.5%)
Labour: 24390 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5180 (9.9%)
Referendum: 2006 (3.8%)
Majority: 3802 (7.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Vernon Coaker(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Bruce Laughton (Conservative) Newark and Sherwood district councillor and Nottinghamshire County councillor since 2001. Contested Sherwood in 2005.Vernon Coaker(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Julia Bateman (Liberal Democrat)Dave Marshall (UKIP)Stephen Adcock (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91661
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 95.8%
Black: 1.2%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 70.5%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 16.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.9%
Owner-Occupied: 80.1%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 9.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5%
Labour gain Gedling council on a huge swing. They’ve gained 23 seats: 13 from the Conservatives, 5 from the Liberal Democrats and 5 from others. Council composition is now Labour 32, Tories 15 and Lib Dems 3.
“The Conservatives are contesting Bestwood this time (straight fight with Labour) and putting up one candidate for three seats in Calverton. In 2003 Bestwood voted 70/30 Labour /Conservative”
Bestwood
Lab 382
Con 275
In Claverton the Conservative candidate was only 33 votes behind the third Labour candidate. In 2003 it was 447.
And the Conservatives were all reelected in Ravenshead, Lumley, Woodborugh and Newstead wards (which was Labour in 2003).
So the mining/rural third of Gedling council continues its drift towards the Conservatives.
The Conservative disaster seemed to have happened in Carlton and to a lesser extent Arnold. Which again confirms the trend seen in 2009 and 2010.
“some of the stronger Tory areas not in the Parliamentary seat I suspect.”
Definately. In 2009 the vote splits were:
Arnold (in Gedling constituency)
Con 6660
Lab 4205
Carlton (in Gedling constituency)
Lab 4356
Con 4174
Calverton and Newstead (in Shewood constituency)
Con 4683
Lab 1803
Splits in 2011:
Arnold (Gedling)
Lab 7974
Con 6511
Carlton (Gedling)
Lab 7431
Con 4907
Rural (Sherwood)
Con 4660
Lab 2940
Swing to Labour 2009 to 2011:
Arnold +3918
Carlton +2342
Rural +1160
I put an estimate for the Conservatives in two wards where they didn’t have candidates (an ominous sign perhaps?). The only ward that the Conservatives managed to win in Carlton was a rural one where the LibDems were their rivals.
I wonder if Pete can say what the swings have been since the old days of 1993 or 1995?
“The result here in 1995 (on the same boundaries that existed until now),
the result in Gedling local elections
was
Lab 44.6%
Con 37.7%
LD 16%+
- so not that different to the 1997 result, except both Lab and Con did push up about 2 points each.”
2011 local elections estimate (on slightly more favourable boundaries to Labour):
Lab 47.3%
Con 35.1%
LibD 14.2%
So a bigger Labour lead here than when they were over 20% ahead nationally.
Change from 2003 to 2011:
Arnold
2003
Con 48.0%
Lab 42.4%
Maj 652
2011
Lab 49.0%
Con 40.0%
Maj 1463
Change
Lab +6.4%
Con -8.0%
Lab +2115
Carlton
2003
Lab 37.7%
Con 31.7%
Maj 671
2011
Lab 45.6%
Con 30.1%
Maj 2524
Change
Lab +7.9%
Con -1.6%
Lab +1853
Rural / Mining
2003
Con 49.1%
Lab 37.3%
Maj 697
2011
Con 55.6%
Lab 35.1%
Maj 1720
Change
Con +6.5%
Lab -2.2%
Con +1023
A very fascinating borough regarding demographic change and its political effects.
I think this was Labour’s best result in terms of Conservative/Labour battlegrounds (they did better in LD battlegrounds such as obviously Liverpool, Manchester etc). Parts of the West MIdlands conurbation were very good for Labour along with other cities like Nottingham and Leicester, but the outer areas such as NW Leices and South Derbyshire were less so. North Warwickshire was only just regained. This confirms Gedlings status as essentially a metropolitan area
Of course Gedling was Conservative in 1999.
Do you have the vote breakdown for the three segments of the borough that year?
It does look like Gedling is close to being a write-off in parliamentary terms. Though boundary changes could easily alter that.
Sir Philip Holland, Conservative MP for this area for 20 years, died on 2 June at the age of 94.
‘It does look like Gedling is close to being a write-off in parliamentary terms. Though boundary changes could easily alter that.’
Bit off a defeatist attitude
Given that the Tories won it in the 1980s (and in 1992 for that matter) and it’s not in a city, I’d say it’s a realistic target and don’t understand why so many Conservatives think many of the 2010 results are best case scenarios – an election which the party didn’t win
despite what the polls are showing, Ed Miliband just isn’t making the necessary impact as an effective leader of the opposition and Labour’s current lead has everything to do with the Lib Dems as coalition partners to the Tories and absolutely nothing to do with anything he has done
Who is to say the Tories can’t win a majority in 2015? And if they can then seats like Gedling will surely be in the mix
There are ex-Tory seats that the party ought to write off, but I wouldn’t say Gedling is one of them
I tend to agree with Tim but I do n’t know the area at all and in fact the election result puzzles me because I note not a particularly high number of graduates and high level owner-occupied – we’re not talking Edgbaston.
I know it slightly – incidentally from just after the time these relative trends against the Tories started (2002).
I think as we’ve tried to figure out, the Carlton area to the east has become more like Nottingham East.
I wouldn’t be particularly optimistic about this seat, even if the Tories can add on that crucial 3% or so and get a majority next time.
(Not certain of course – there could be a Labour win or another hung result).
It could also depend on how the seats are redrawn.
A Gedling seat without Carlton and some more rural territory may be different,
but the Tories have been doing relatively worse here from 2001 onwards, IDS, Howard, and even Cameron doing badly against Hague,
which is a pretty clear indication of demographic change,
although as I said,
nearly a decade ago, I didn’t see much evidence of it.
Vernon Coaker seems to be popular from what I heard here (despite being a supporter of the odious Balls)
but I think there have been changes in the area more than anything.
Most of this seat forms the new Nottingham East constituency with 3 wards from the current Nottingham East (Dales, Mapperley and St Ann’s) remaining in the new version. Labour would have won this seat comfortably last year and given the swing to Labour in May’s local elections in Gedling, they are unlikely to have much trouble in winning this seat under the proposed boundaries at the next election.
Good for Vernon Coaker but what’s going to happen elsewhere in Nottingham?
Will we see all 3 Labour MPs fighting over the new safe Nottingham West seat?
On current proposals, Coaker should apply for selection in East. Leslie can apply for both East or West. Allen for West or North & Hucknall. Greenwood should go for South as she doesn’t meet the substantial territorial claim (40%) anywhere else
Yes Andrea, but the new Nottingham South seat is likely to be Conservative, and surely Greenwood will be allowed to compete for a winnable seat?
John, it depends on how flexible Labour NEC will be with its own guidance.
There are other areas where a little bit of flexibility will be required (in some cases without affecting any other incumbents)