Gainsborough
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24266 (49.27%)
Labour: 7701 (15.64%)
Liberal Democrat: 13707 (27.83%)
BNP: 1512 (3.07%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.19%)
Majority: 10559 (21.44%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 19664 (43.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 11917 (26.6%)
Labour: 11454 (25.5%)
Other: 1819 (4.1%)
Majority: 7747 (17.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20040 (43.9%)
Labour: 11744 (25.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 12037 (26.4%)
UKIP: 1860 (4.1%)
Majority: 8003 (17.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19555 (46.2%)
Labour: 11484 (27.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11280 (26.7%)
Majority: 8071 (19.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20593 (43.1%)
Labour: 13767 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 13436 (28.1%)
Majority: 6826 (14.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Edward Leigh(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Edward Leigh(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Jamie McMahon (Labour) Educated at Nottingham University.
Pat O`Connor (Liberal Democrat) born 1959, Birmingham. Educated at St Philip`s School. Former non-commissioned army officer. Police admin officer. Lincolnshire county councillor 1999-2007. West Lindsey councillor since 2007. Contested Grantham and Stamford 2005.
Steven Pearson (UKIP)Malcolm Porter (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81596
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 24.1%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 99%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.8%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 16.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.1%
Owner-Occupied: 75.1%
Social Housing: 12.1% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 8.2%)
Privately Rented: 8.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
There will be more of a separation in the Liberal and Labour vote this time round. With a Lib Dem run council and no Labour councillors in West Lindsey the populus will know they have to vote Lib Dem to beat the far right Tory Edward Leigh.
Next time a Lib Dem/Tory marginal.
Would change under an AV system!!!
Well the LibDems are just soooo popular in the East Midlands
They’ve had several elections to work that one out and still didnt manage it!
Oh yes another seat that should have AV – never mind that ‘the far right Tory Edward Leigh’ won 44% last time and another 4% voted UKIP. Perhaps the local populus isnt as determined as Siberian T is to see a left wing MP elected here. Since Labour were second in 1997 and 2001 its actually rathe unlikely that AV would have delivered the result he would like here and its pretty unlikley in 2005 too. This seat isnt going to be marginal in 2009 either.
Yes, Siberian T, could we have analysis here, not just wishful thinking?
Leigh succeeded Sir Marcus Kimball in 1993: a firm example of the old traditionalist right, he was a keen hunter, as one might expect of a Leicestershire Tory of the old school.
Is not the fact that the Lib Dems are now second the important point though. As has been seen in other such seats, when Labour or the Tories go from second to third when their local government base is weak their general election vote often plummets as their vote is seen to mean little either locally or nationally. I think Leigh’s majority is too much, but I’d expect the Labour vote to go down & also the Conservative majority.
Edward Leigh suceeded David Davis as Chairman of the influential Commons Public Accounts Committee.I always thought that the holder of this post had to be non partisan & independently minded.
I don’t think that the LDs in second necessarily indicates a forthcoming swing. You can often have a patten in safe seats where both the second and third parties are on a rough equality, trading second and third place depending on their national standing. The LDs might advance – but they’ve found it hard enough to protect their second place in Harborough, which, IMO, has more LD potential.
I always thought that the holder of this post had to be non partisan & independently minded.
By no means: for instance, Harold Wilson actually combined it with his position as Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary until he became Labour leader. It’s a good high-profile Opposition post, because there’s always some scope to attack the government in politically vital areas.
If this constituency was to suffer a by-election, it would probably transform into a Lib Dem seat that they may hold onto for a number of years (there are quite a few Tory seats that I would say that about actually). However, so long as there is no by-election hick-up’s I can see the Conservative majority remaining fairly steady for a long time to come in general elections, even if not in local elections.
I would predict a Tory majority of some 12,000 next time.
That implies a 5-6% swing, which sounds quite reasonable at the moment. Looking at local figures will be interesting – but I’d expect Labour and the LDs to take the burden of swing.
Having said that, the similarity of the result here to 1997 does indicate signs of weakness which a solid LD campaign might exploit. But the lack of an LD candidate, and Edward Leigh’s PAC visibility (recent events have given more exposure than many Shadow Cabinet members) indicates that potential weaknesses are unlikely to be seirously probed, for now.
Yes Tangent, I was just connecting the fact that the Lib Dems are now second with the fact that they are the dominant party in local politics. With that being the case there has obviously been split ticket voting going on in this seat with many local Lib Dem voters voting Labour or Tory at the general election as a vote for the Lib Dems would be ‘wasted’. As they are now second they can sell themselves as the true challengers to the Tories & Labour can’t coma back with ‘well we finished second last time’ along with them, having no councillors in this seat. Prime conditions for attempting to squeeze the Labour vote.
The LDs can sell themselves as the only real challengers here, certainly; but it’s not necessarily going to happen. One of the consistent patterns of the past two years or so is the near destruction of much of Labour’s local English rural base, outside places like mining villages. The LDs may well build on that in many areas; but moving up to consolidate their position at parliamentary level will take a long-term programme of serious consolidation and targetting, and is unlikely to simply happen, as some of the Labour vote will return at the next GE. The LDs, locally, don’t seem to have geared up to that position yet – so their second position, particularly with such a narrow advantage, isn’t sacrosanct as yet.
On paper the Lib Dems should have good prospects of winning seats in rural Lincolnshire.Apart from running Michael Brotherton close in October 1974 in Louth,they have flattered to decieve.It is a similar situation in Leominster,Skipton,Chippenham & Chelmsford.
Lib Dems are fairly dominent locally in safe Tory seats such as Folkestone and Hythe, Aylesbury, Guildford, Suffolk South, Mid Sussex, Saffrom Walden and many others. But they never look like making a breakthrough at a general election.
I agree that the Lib Dem votes are technically there if they can just convince them to come out for them in general elections too. However, this looks not to be happening, and if they failed during 1992-2005, they will be unlikely to do so in the near future with the Tories recovering nationally.
Of course, individual Tory seats could still thrown into Lib Dem clutches by a rogue by-election at any time. This is the main thing that the Tories must avoind like the plague!
I think that if a 12,000 majority implies a 5-6% swing, I agree with Tangent that this does not seem excessive. But of course, if turnout inceases overall, it is possible that the swing may not be that big to get a 12,000 majority.
The Labour vote here in West Lindsey has collapsed rather more than elsewhere . They have almost given up contesting seats at all . In the 2005 CC elections they polled just 10.8% of the votes , in the 2006 locals just 2.8% and this May a miniscule 376 votes 1.4% . When people get out of the habit of voting Labour many may not return at all even when Labour put up a candidate .
The Labour vote only fell 1.4% in Gainsborough in the 2005 General Election, despite their poor performance in the County Council election on the same day.
(They were second in 1997 and 2001).
It is somewhat surprising they put up so little effort in May 2007, as was the case in Fenland (where they controlled the council in 1995 – although that was exceptional as on some measures it was their best ever year).
It seems premature to say people are out of habit voting Labour here.
My impression is that the Conservatives polled more local support in 2007 across this constituency than the Lib Dems did. 48% to 45%? – If that’s right then isnt it reasonable to assume Labour supporters by and large backed the lib dems in the absence of a candidate from their natural party? Hence as soon as Labour put up a candidate, who it is far to assume will get at least something in the low teens, the Lib Dems are going to struggle.
and if the Tories are getting close to 50% in a local election, this can be nothing but an easy predicted hold (barring a Solihull!)
Generally in local elections in the absence of a candidate from their natural party Labour supporters will tend to stay at home .
Looking at the figures from 1997, 2001 and 2007, this possibly has to rate as one of the most stable constituencies in the country, with the greatest movement being just 3.1% during that period for any of the parties.
Sorry, that should have been 2005, not 2007.
The Lib Dems have selected Cllr Pat O’Connor here.
If the Tories want someone to cut spending he’s the man. He and Kenneth Clarke would be the dream combination when Osborne does the decent thing.
Jamie McMahon’s reportedly been selected as the Labour candidate here.
To give some information about the man: he’s 20, and currently a student at Nottingham; previously, he was a candidate aged just 18 in the Ipswich council elections in 2007, and has been active in the party itself for a good few years now, intimately involved in first the Ipswich Labour Party as their delegate to the National Youth Conference at one point, and now in the university’s Labour club. He ran for PPC in Sleaford and North Hykeham, Douglas Hogg’s seat, but came second.
He’s a Fabian Society member, and politically, he isn’t really too distinct, being something of a staunch government loyalist. He does have something of a left-wing bent, though, being a Co-operative Party supporter, a backer of the trade unions (at least in theory), has described himself as a ‘democratic socialist [for Obama]‘, is an atheist and secularist, has endorsed campaigns to support Palestinian farmers before, and is a very, VERY strong anti-racist, supporting withdrawal from the Durban conference and the expulsion of ‘fascists’ from unions.
Despite this, though, it’s hard to say how he feels in real terms; he overwhelmingly seems to trend towards supporting the party above all else. Fairly typical Labour apparatchik. Obviously, he won’t win here, but I think we’ll see him in Parliament in due course.
Well I guess he has got to prove to the NEC etc that he is capable of staying “on message”, otherwise they wouldn’t let him near any sort of seat!
So he’s an authoritarian Communist?
What are you getting at Benjamin?
Well Labour student activists aren’t known for being all that centrist and if he’s essentially in favour of McCarthy-style blacklisting (though presumably under a different name!) in Trade Unions on the basis of being politically unsound, he sounds like the kind of dangerously illiberal person parliament could do without.
Labour students I can tell you are a lot more centrist than I am. There has never been a time in all my years in the Party (I joined in 1977) that the hard Left has been in control of Labour students. Indeed if you look at all the Labour MPs who used to be NUS Presidents they are a pretty rightist lot by Labour standards. Nor are Fabian Society members exactly known for being “authoritarian Communists”! It’s you who sounds McCarthyite, not Jamie McMahon.
Malcolm Porter will be standing here for the BNP.
Cons Hold= 10,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 11 400
Con maj 12,500
CON HOLD
Rumours are about that Edward Leigh might be the next Speaker – apparently Nadine Dorries would like him in the job, I guess his chairmanship of the PAC gives him good stead
This is the 1992 notional result for Gainsborough.
There was a further boundary change this year, in 2010, but it’s minor (reduction), so the match is almost perfect.
1992
Con 26,919 53.4%
LD 12,993 25.8%
Lab 10,533 20.9%
Con maj 13,926 27.6%
Turnout 80.3%
Adjusting for the change in 2010,
I estimate the change from 1992 to 2010 is
Con -4.0%
LD +1.8%
Lab -5.1%
BNP and UKIP entering the contest since 1992.
The LDs lost considerable ground in Lincolnshire in 1992.
Most seats saw substantial recoveries in the Labour vote,
with the Tories also adding support at the same time.
After starting this whole debate off about this seat I would just like too add that the Labour vote dropped substantially in 2010 and if the Liberals work at this seat they could move forward in it.
It was one of the few places in the country to gain Liberal Councillors in the Local elections in May 2011 and the Liberals now control the Gainsborough town Council.
http://www.gainsboroughstandard.co.uk/news/local-news/election_results_for_gainsborough_town_council_1_3363362
two good tory wins saxilby(cc) and nettleham(dc and its a part of the former) have both been strong lib dem wards in recent years.
and a late reply to the above post the lib dems were the only main party to run in gainsborough tc lol at the dc labour got a foothold back in the town with 2 seats and torries got one in gainsborough north. i think labour if put a full list of canadates up they would gain even more. at the 2013 cc if labour were to put some effort in i think they could push the libs in gainsborough hill cc seat (only 200 votes behing in 2005 ok they disapeared in 2009)
West Lindsey by-election: LD 169 (-16%), Lab 149 (-6%), UKIP 143 (+24%), Con 129 (-2%).
I’m assuming this was a Lib Dem hold???
The UKIP vote is staggering – although I know the number of votes for all the candidates are very low.
Gainsborough house prices amuse me
This one is available for £20,000.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-25729686.html
Is there a constituency with lower prices?
It would be ironic if the cheapest houses were in a safe Conservative constituency.
Yes it was an LD hold.
That does seem ridiculously cheap. Wonder why its such an inexpensive area? Presumably just poor transport links. But there are areas you would much rather avoid than here.
Edward Leigh wouldnt be my choice of tory MP, infact a socially conservative catholic would be about the bottom of the pile, but it beats the labour MPs ive had to put up with so far.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37314229.html
£12,000 pounds.
Gainsborough suffered a long decline from the fall in rivertrade(it did have a fair sized port with a few small boat builders) and canal trade. it also a large manufacturing base in Marshalls of Gainsborough(agi stuff) which took a long time to replace.
I don’t know this area. I’ve heard that Gainsborough is a surprisingly deprived town, although the rest of its constituency is much less so.
i visit the town a couple of times a year and there is massive build starting(i think i have read somewhere to double the size of the town in the next 10 years).i have often said that they built the town on the wrong bank as the town has a”worksop” feel about it.