Finchley and Golders Green
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21688 (45.99%)
Labour: 15879 (33.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 8036 (17.04%)
UKIP: 817 (1.73%)
Green: 737 (1.56%)
Majority: 5809 (12.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16933 (39.7%)
Conservative: 16902 (39.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7123 (16.7%)
Other: 1670 (3.9%)
Majority: 31 (0.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16746 (38.8%)
Labour: 17487 (40.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7282 (16.9%)
Green: 1136 (2.6%)
UKIP: 453 (1%)
Other: 110 (0.3%)
Majority: 741 (1.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16489 (37.8%)
Labour: 20205 (46.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5266 (12.1%)
UKIP: 330 (0.8%)
Green: 1385 (3.2%)
Majority: 3716 (8.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19991 (39.7%)
Labour: 23180 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5670 (11.3%)
Referendum: 684 (1.4%)
Other: 781 (1.6%)
Majority: 3189 (6.3%)
Boundary changes: Relatively minor. Gains part of Woodhouse ward from Chipping Barnet, small parts of Golders Green, Finchley Church End and Garden Suburb wards from Hendon, while losing most of Coppetts ward to Chipping Barnet.
Profile: Covers Finchley, Golders Green, Childs Hill and Hampstead Garden Suburb. A well-to-do residential seat with a large Jewish population. Was represented by Margaret Thatcher and considered a safe Conservative seat prior Rudi Vis` unexpected victory in 1997. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Finchley & Golders Green has a notional Conservative majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Tory held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night
Current MP: Mike Freer (Conservative) born 1960, Manchester. Educated at Chadderton Grammar School and Stirling University. Works as an area manager for Barclays Bank. Barnet councillor since 2000 and currently Leader of Barnet council. Contested Harrow West in 2005.
Mike Freer (Conservative) born 1960, Manchester. Educated at Chadderton Grammar School and Stirling University. Works as an area manager for Barclays Bank. Barnet councillor since 2000 and currently Leader of Barnet council. Contested Harrow West in 2005.
Alison Moore (Labour) Educated at University of London. Barnet councillor and leader of the Labour group on Barnet council.
Laura Edge (Liberal Democrat) Housing solicitor. Haringey councillor. 
Donald Lyven (Green)Susan Cummins (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 106378
Male: 47.3%
Female: 52.7%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 19%
Born outside UK: 35.9%
White: 74.2%
Black: 5.2%
Asian: 12.3%
Mixed: 3.2%
Other: 5.1%
Christian: 40%
Hindu: 6.8%
Jewish: 19.6%
Muslim: 6%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 44.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.8%
Owner-Occupied: 63.1%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 7.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 21.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.4%
Thanks for that Joe.
As I said before the drop in Redbridge is not suprising.
I wonder if the shift in Jewish votes from Labour to the Tories has a little something to do with Labours perceived obsession with Muslims in recent decades. I know in Redbridge it was the Jewish community who helped the Tories win the seat in 2005 and hold the seat in 2010 (along with the Tamil community)
@LBernard
Lee Scott’s continued support for Tamils in Ilford North, especially in raising awareness of the suffering of Tamils in Sri Lanka, even today (3 years after the end of the Civil War), as well as continued support for Independent War Crimes investigations, and all the publicity in Tamil media, is a reason I think, he may still hold on in Ilford North in 2015 too.
@LBernard
Surely part of the reason for the Labour –>Tory inclinations of the Jewish Community is linked to the reasons Robin Hood and Joe R, have mentioned in the Croydon North thread, which is that once migrants have settled and become assimilated and become upwardly mobile, their priorities and interests change e.g. economic/fiscal outlook changes. Therefore the panic that some of the Tory posters on the Croydon North thread needn’t worry.
Also considering going to War in Iraq, amongst other examples – it would be a funny perception to have that Labour are obsessed with Muslims, in reality it probably is the opposite.
“Surely part of the reason for the Labour –>Tory inclinations of the Jewish Community is linked to the reasons Robin Hood and Joe R, have mentioned in the Croydon North thread, which is that once migrants have settled and become assimilated and become upwardly mobile, their priorities and interests change e.g. economic/fiscal outlook changes”
I Completely understand that but it must be said that the Jewish population in Redbridge must have had a great deal to do with Labour gaining the seat in 1997 and then holding the seat in 2001. In the past decade or so it seems Jewish communities have shifted even more right which is why I wondered if Labours Muslim friendliness had something to do with it. I certainly know that in North East London it seemed that a number of Labour controlled councils seemed to pander to the Muslim community during 2001-2010.
The Iraq War was more to do with Mr Blair wanting to play Iiternational statesman so he wasn’t concerned about the Muslim vote but his activists were by and large completely against it.
It was just a thought.
If the Jewish vote is in tact here, then I’d have thought that would give the Tories hope in Barnet.
Seems inevitable now that Hertsmere will overtake Barnet as the local authority with the highest proportion of Jewish people. In fact it may have already happened particularly if the riots last year prompted more Jewish people to move out of the capital.
I had thought the Jewish proportion in Barnet might be down a bit as it was unsurprisingly in neighbouring boroughs like Brent and Harrow. I commented recently on the Hendon thread to that effect. It may still turn out, once we have the ward information, that the Jewish proportion has decliined in that seat but that it has been offset by increases in this seat and in Chipping Barnet. In 2001 Edgware ward had the second highest proportion of Jews at 36.7% (after Garden Suburb in this seat) and I’ll be surprised if this has not declined a bit since then even as it has remained steady or risen in more desirable wards like those in this seat and Totteridge (Chipping Barnet)
Re: the table Andy posted a link to… (for the number of Jews by local authority)… I presume Leeds has fallen a few places down the rankings in the past 20 years or so, as I was surprised to see it is only in 24th place.
It must’ve been higher placed than that in the 70s/80s.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Childs Hill: 49.9% / 35.8%
East Finchley: 60.3% / 52.0%
Finchley Church End: 59.0% / 47.3%
Garden Suburb: 65.3% / 56.6%
Golders Green: 53.9% / 43.3%
West FInchley: 50.8% / 39.6%
Woodhouse: 55.8% / 42.0%
TOTAL: 56.2% / 44.8%
White overall, FInchley & Golders Green:
2001: 74.2%
2011: 66.5%
Thanks Andy – these changes look more modest compared to some of the enormous ones in other areas.
Perhaps the middle class Jewish population is fairly static leaving changes in other groups to be out of a smaller total.
I’d be very interested to see the full breakdown for this seat – it is one of those where I think it is needed.
Although the wards of West Finchley, and Woodhouse are better for Labour than in the Great Lady’s days, I suspect some of the demographics here are favourable to the Tories.
I’ll do a full breakdown later if no-one else has.
This is the only London seat on Labour’s target list which I think they have no chance of winning.
Pretty similar to Enfield Southgate IMO. It will only go back to Labour in a landslide year, which 2015 will not be.
I’d have thought Battersea would be just as hard as this one especially since they have less councillors than in this seat.
Is Battersea not on their target list? Because the majority there is very similar and I think they have no chance there barring the kind of landsllde conditions that would also bring this seat back into play. I actually think Southgate could be a bit more dicey, but expect the Tories to hold it in 2015
Battersea is on the target list, Pete. Certainly surprised me when I saw it. There’s about half a dozen London seats that are more plausible Labour gains in 2015 than Battersea.
Sorry yes I forgot Battersea. Labour have no chance there in 2015 either.
Pete – what do you expect will happen in Croydon Central, Harrow East and Ilford North?
On the assumption that there will not be a majority for either main party but that there will be a swing to Labour of a few percent, I think most likely they will gain Croydon Central while the Tories may hold on to Ilford North for one more term (maybe more if the following election turns out to be the disaster for Labour that some anticipate, following a period of Lib Lab government).
Harrow East is tricky. It did look for a while after 1997 as if it had goine straigh to being a safe Labour seat like Brent North had, but the recovery there has been good and there’s clearly quite a lot of Tory voting going on amongst Indian voters there. On the other hand the Jewish vote is declining in Stanmore and the muslim vote is growing there and in other parts of the seat and in the longer term I think that like Ilford North its going to become a very difficult seat to hold.
Interesting. My personal view is that the Tories will just about hold on in Croydon Central. There could be so little in it though that Gavin Barwell’s personal vote could be the decider. I don’t like him personally but he is recognised as a good MP and is genuinely very local. To his credit he has made a lot of effort to connect with people who wouldn’t normally vote Tory.
There’s minimal potential for Tory votes seeping to UKIP here, and all those votes that went to Andrew Pelling up for grabs. So I would put Croydon Central and Ilford North together in your “one more Tory term” category.
I agree with H.Hemmelig that the Tories will probably hold Croydon Central in 2015, but then I disagree with Pete Whitehead’s assumption that there is likely to be a swing to Labour: as I’ve mentioned before, historical precedent does not suggest (at least on current form) that there will be a significant swing either way between the two main parties. On that basis Gavin Barwell should hold it.
Whilst we agree on Croydon Central, I think you’re being extremely pessimistic about your party’s chances Robin Hood.
There’s no modern historical precedent for a peacetime coalition government lasting a full term. I think we can say with almost 100% certainty that there will be a swing from Lib Dem to Labour, probably quite a big one, which will cause a swing from Conservative to Labour even if the Tories improve their vote share slightly.
The Tories need Labour to just stack their vote up – the problem the Tories have,
but which Labour had in 1987.
The 2011 local elections model is the best plan.
Plan A+ if you like.
Demographic changes in London are a fly in the ointment of that plan.
It seems like Labour are almost guaranteed to win several Tory seats in London no matter what.
Some of those changes are actually in the opposite direction. Admitedly small amounts of it, but here and there.
There is one seat the Tories will find almost impossible to hold – Enfield North.
It is not a certain loss – but it’ll be extremely difficult, regardless of national circumstances.
All the other marginal seats – Ilford North, Hendon, Croydon Central, Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, are likely to be retained.
There could be one or two Con gains – Hampstead and Kilburn, and Hammersmith.
And that’s before any LD seats are looked at.
Maybe a little optimistic regarding Hendon where the white British percentage has dropped from 54.3% to 37.3% and the Tory majority is 106.
To be fair the white British population has not dropped by that much since 2010 when the Tory majority was 106, but since 2001 when there was a Labour majority of 7,417
Joe, I’d have thought Westminster North would be your best chance of a gain from Labour in London. It was the only Labour held seat to vote Conservative in all 3 sections of the ballot in last year’s elections so you’re clearly in with a chance there.
I do agree that Enfield North is the most likely Tory loss in London while the Lib Dems are very likely to lose Brent Central.
Census results, Jewish 2001 / 2011:
Childs Hill: 18.0% / 16.9%
East Finchley: 8.3% / 8.8%
Finchley Church End: 28.6% / 31.2%
Garden Suburb: 37.1% / 38.2%
Golders Green: 29.5% / 37.1%
West FInchley: 9.0% / 9.1%
Woodhouse: 6.7% / 6.4%
TOTAL:
2001: 20,836 / 106,378 = 19.6%
2011: 25,400 / 120,608 = 21.1%
The Jewish population appears to be becoming more concentrated in particular wards throughout Barnet with a few exceptions.