Finchley and Golders Green
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21688 (45.99%)
Labour: 15879 (33.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 8036 (17.04%)
UKIP: 817 (1.73%)
Green: 737 (1.56%)
Majority: 5809 (12.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16933 (39.7%)
Conservative: 16902 (39.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7123 (16.7%)
Other: 1670 (3.9%)
Majority: 31 (0.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16746 (38.8%)
Labour: 17487 (40.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7282 (16.9%)
Green: 1136 (2.6%)
UKIP: 453 (1%)
Other: 110 (0.3%)
Majority: 741 (1.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16489 (37.8%)
Labour: 20205 (46.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5266 (12.1%)
UKIP: 330 (0.8%)
Green: 1385 (3.2%)
Majority: 3716 (8.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19991 (39.7%)
Labour: 23180 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5670 (11.3%)
Referendum: 684 (1.4%)
Other: 781 (1.6%)
Majority: 3189 (6.3%)
Boundary changes: Relatively minor. Gains part of Woodhouse ward from Chipping Barnet, small parts of Golders Green, Finchley Church End and Garden Suburb wards from Hendon, while losing most of Coppetts ward to Chipping Barnet.
Profile: Covers Finchley, Golders Green, Childs Hill and Hampstead Garden Suburb. A well-to-do residential seat with a large Jewish population. Was represented by Margaret Thatcher and considered a safe Conservative seat prior Rudi Vis` unexpected victory in 1997. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Finchley & Golders Green has a notional Conservative majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Tory held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night
Current MP: Mike Freer (Conservative) born 1960, Manchester. Educated at Chadderton Grammar School and Stirling University. Works as an area manager for Barclays Bank. Barnet councillor since 2000 and currently Leader of Barnet council. Contested Harrow West in 2005.
Mike Freer (Conservative) born 1960, Manchester. Educated at Chadderton Grammar School and Stirling University. Works as an area manager for Barclays Bank. Barnet councillor since 2000 and currently Leader of Barnet council. Contested Harrow West in 2005.
Alison Moore (Labour) Educated at University of London. Barnet councillor and leader of the Labour group on Barnet council.
Laura Edge (Liberal Democrat) Housing solicitor. Haringey councillor. 
Donald Lyven (Green)Susan Cummins (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 106378
Male: 47.3%
Female: 52.7%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 19%
Born outside UK: 35.9%
White: 74.2%
Black: 5.2%
Asian: 12.3%
Mixed: 3.2%
Other: 5.1%
Christian: 40%
Hindu: 6.8%
Jewish: 19.6%
Muslim: 6%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 44.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.8%
Owner-Occupied: 63.1%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 7.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 21.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.4%
I think that is probably correct.
I got a bit fed up with several excitable commentators playing along with it aswell – speculating on how the parties would react to a hung Parliament – rather than getting on with what they were supposed to be doing in the meantime, which is reporting results.
If the electorates had been equal at this election instead of 10 years out of date the worst case scenario for the Tories is probably that they would have been 10 seats short instead of 20. It’s not impossible they would have won a small majority. I know there’s no point in harping on about what might have been but it’s not acceptable IMO to have boundaries more than 10 years out of date the first time they’re contested. In 1997 the new boundaries were based on 1991 electorates and in 1983 based on 1976 data.
We can’t really know – in reality the talks between LDs and Labour broke down before they really began as the Labour side refused to budge on some really key issues like ID Cards and tax cuts, but then a Lab/Lib deal was an arithmetical non-starter really.
But perhaps if it had been more feasible they would have been a little less obstinate.
The very idea that Labour could still form a government in such circumstances is preposterous. Even John Reid and David Blunkett thought so.
Johno
‘Arjun…don’t see how any Labour MP with a very small majority of (31 is very small) has any prospect of holding on, let alone increase his or her majority (even if some constituents percieve them as popular).’
Hmm, I seem to remember people making the same sort of statement about Jim Knight in South Dorset before the last General Election. Actual result: majority increased from 150 something to approaching 2000.
February 28th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
And he then went unto be crushed by 7000, is how the story ends.
It’s a pity Arjun doesn’t post anymore.
Harry Scott-Parker is a legend aswell.
I keep persuading him to stand in Sheffield Hallam.
Arjun has to be my favourite poster, although I did like the bonkers Ian MacKintosh, or whatever he’s called. (the serious one is totally credible though it has to be said).
The name Plopwell has, it seems become synonymous with batty predictions. I’ve seen a few of his comments, but alas I missed out on those glory days when he was actually posting.
Horrible name to endure at school though.
I’d have to change it – couldn’t bear it.
Despite a larger swing than the national and London averages in 2010, the Tory vote has still dropped more than average since 1997 here.
But it is better than the London average since.
I think Gloy Plopwell was probably a regular poster on this site having a bit of a laugh. He might still be posting today if it wasn’t for the fact that (I think) Anthony Wells blocked the name from being used.
Part of me really wants to believe that Gloy was sincere in all his predictions,
It’s a shame Anthony had to spoil the fun.
It can be dangerous to joke sometimes.
Some of that has actually happened – Lib Dems in government.
Anyway, what I wanted to say, Margaret Thatcher had a pretty large 29,000+ in 1959 – were there any other boundary changes before February 1974?
Mainly that the part of Hampstead Garden Suburb which had been included was moved into Hendon South. Not sure how many voters were involved but a few thousand I guess and most of them would have been Conservative (though not all – Harold Wilson lived there I believe at some point)
Thanks – I thought there must have been a change – wonder why this seat was changed and so many others not despite being disparite sizes.
It would have been to equalise electorates within the LB of Barnet as this was the first time boundaries were drawn based on that borough as opposed to the previous County Boroughs, Municipal boroughs and Urban districts in the area. Hendon South had a considerably lower electorate than Finchley prior to that (though curiously it is lower on the new boundaries in 1974 than it was in 1970)
I’m glad there’s a good reason for it – boundaries.
wouldn’t like to think of Mrs Thatcher’s majority ever being reduced.