Comments on: Filton and Bradley Stoke

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 22:49:15 +0000

Thanks for the figures – a very average swing from 2010 to 2011 then.
I think it was a minor success for Labour to keep second place here in 2010.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 19:47:34 +0000

I actually missed out Frenchay and Stoke Park, I thought the figures weren’t quite right.

Con 12039 42.0
Lab 9163 32.0
LD 5162 18.0
Ind 1351 4.7
Grn 948 3.3

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 16:28:29 +0000

Local election results for F&BS

Con 11105 41.2
Lab 8719 32.3
LD 4855 18
Ind 1351 5
Grn 948 3.5

Must admit I was surprised what the B commission did in this area as I thought they would retain the Thornbury & Yate constituency with three wards from here added and extend the bulk of this constituency to the Mangotsfield area of Kingswood.
I suspect that may still happen though as there wasn’t really a need for a radical redraw.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:50:33 +0000

‘gives the Conservatives a decent chance of winning the remainder (South Gloucestershire?) from the LDs.’

A chance certainly but I think Steve Webb is popular enough at a constituency level to hold on – whether they screwfix Bradley Stoke in or out of the seat

Like the two Norman’s – Baker and Lamb – he has taken what seemed a fairly safe Tory seat in 97 and turned it into a Lib Dem stronghold

Of course all three are likely to lose most of the ‘borrowed’ Labour votes, but their majorities would seem to be of a sufficient size to withstand this

It’s the other Lib Dems in the South, East and South West that I feel for – they really will be up against it at the next election

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:31:32 +0000

Indeed. A return to the seat formerly known as Northavon must be likely, and the handing back to Bristol NW of Filton. That would give Labour a good chance of winning the latter (it still isn’t unwinnable even as it currently stands, despite the awful-looking result in 2010) and gives the Conservatives a decent chance of winning the remainder (South Gloucestershire?) from the LDs. The possibility must be however that a Conservative seat would disappear, but perhaps a different alignment will be devised which causes something else to happen instead.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:27:52 +0000

I agree.

Presumably, the area formerly known as Avon will lose a seat at the next election. So the Lib Dems may not get another chance to win here before it is abolished.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:15:39 +0000

‘The LDs looked quite grumpy at the declaration of this seat, which was shown on a local BBC Bristol channel.’

I would have thought that this is exactly the sort of seat the Lib Dems thought they might win as a result of the Clegg effect following the TV debates

The notional figures for 2005 show this to be a three-way marginal and given that some reports have the Lib Dems topping the Bristol poll in terms of votes cast in 2010, I would have thought that they would have been very disappointed not to have won here – and mortified at coming 3rd behind Labour

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:58:50 +0000

This looks like a rather less poor Labour result than Bristol NW, and if the seat survives more or less in its current form merits distinctly harder work from Labour than it received in 2010. I am surprised that the LDs couldn’t get 2nd place here, as I suspect most of the correspondents here are, and now if Labour can place an effective squeeze on their vote it could be interestine.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 00:25:23 +0000

The LDs looked quite grumpy at the declaration of this seat, which was shown on a local BBC Bristol channel.

Perhaps they thought they should have been second, or even won.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sat, 08 May 2010 20:57:14 +0000

Yes I meant Filton, inasmuch as it was previously in Bristol NW.