Filton and Bradley Stoke
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19686 (40.76%)
Labour: 12772 (26.44%)
Liberal Democrat: 12197 (25.25%)
BNP: 1328 (2.75%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.12%)
Green: 441 (0.91%)
Christian: 199 (0.41%)
Others: 172 (0.36%)
Majority: 6914 (14.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 14742 (35.7%)
Labour: 13541 (32.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 11243 (27.2%)
Other: 1820 (4.4%)
Majority: 1201 (2.9%)
New seat: Filton and Bradley Stoke is largely made up of the old Bristol North-West, whose extent is now limited to the City of Bristol unitary authority, along with parts of the former Northavon and Kingswood constituencies.
Profile: Filton, a suburb of Bristol, is a centre for the aviation industry. Parts for the Airbus A380 are manufactured in Airbus`s Filton plant before being shipped to Broughton for assembly. The large Bradley Stoke housing development was built in the late 1980s and now forms a dormitory suburb for Bristol. The constituency also includes the villages of Almondsbury and Severn Beach to the West.
Current MP: Jack Lopresti (Conservative) Mortgage broker and former estate agent. Bristol councillor until 2007. Contested Bristol East 2001. Contested South-West region in the 2004 European Election.
Jack Lopresti (Conservative) Mortgage broker and former estate agent. Bristol councillor until 2007. Contested Bristol East 2001. Contested South-West region in the 2004 European Election.
Ian Boulton (Labour) Small businessman.
Peter Tyzack (Liberal Democrat) South Gloucestershire councillor. Contested Bristol East 1997, Bristol North West 2001
Jon Lucas (Green) Writer and adult education teacher
John Knight (UKIP)
David Scott (BNP) 
Ruth Johnson (Christian Party) Romantic novellist.Vote Zero None of the Above (Independent) Original named Eric Mutch. Cafe worker.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82640
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 18.7%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.3%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 71.6%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.4%
Owner-Occupied: 80%
Social Housing: 10% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
you had mine yet cardwell?
I’ve had a Lib Dem leaflet (so has my other half), two from the tories, one BNP and one UKIP.
I’ve already decided who i’m going to vote for but well done to Zero, I can see where you are coming from. What I can’t quite see is why you have had to explain yourself several times!
I do now think the LDs will be second here, but not first.
+ expect a larger than average swing to the Tories here, and possibly in Thornbury & Yate, and Kingswood,
but not in seats wholly within Bristol.
I agree with with “Zero…”, we are in desparate need of Electorial reform, something that promotes more parties, and the involvement of real people in local politics.
My main point it to discourage any thought of Tactical Voting in F & BS, as without any history, this is the first opportunity for you (and me) to let our neighbours know the true balance of opinion in the area.
I recommend the yahoo party matcher if you want to do a quick comparison your issues and the national policies of the main parties.
This is a tough one. The LDs are locally pretty strong but they are much less so in the Bristol city part of the seat. I think simply because of sheer luck on the vote split it’ll be CON HOLD
In theory, this should be a fascinating three way marginal, but it isn’t in reality and I think Bristol North West is the more interesting seat in the area.
Barnaby,
There is no Bristol city part of the seat. It is now all in S. Glos.
I assume Barnaby means physically rather than politically part of Bristol. That’s how non-political folk think. Filton is to all intents and purposes part of Bristol, regardless of the fact it’s a different Council. Winterbourne and the area north of Cribbs Causeway clearly aren’t, and Bradley Stoke isn’t really.
Yes I meant Filton, inasmuch as it was previously in Bristol NW.
The LDs looked quite grumpy at the declaration of this seat, which was shown on a local BBC Bristol channel.
Perhaps they thought they should have been second, or even won.
This looks like a rather less poor Labour result than Bristol NW, and if the seat survives more or less in its current form merits distinctly harder work from Labour than it received in 2010. I am surprised that the LDs couldn’t get 2nd place here, as I suspect most of the correspondents here are, and now if Labour can place an effective squeeze on their vote it could be interestine.
‘The LDs looked quite grumpy at the declaration of this seat, which was shown on a local BBC Bristol channel.’
I would have thought that this is exactly the sort of seat the Lib Dems thought they might win as a result of the Clegg effect following the TV debates
The notional figures for 2005 show this to be a three-way marginal and given that some reports have the Lib Dems topping the Bristol poll in terms of votes cast in 2010, I would have thought that they would have been very disappointed not to have won here – and mortified at coming 3rd behind Labour
I agree.
Presumably, the area formerly known as Avon will lose a seat at the next election. So the Lib Dems may not get another chance to win here before it is abolished.
Indeed. A return to the seat formerly known as Northavon must be likely, and the handing back to Bristol NW of Filton. That would give Labour a good chance of winning the latter (it still isn’t unwinnable even as it currently stands, despite the awful-looking result in 2010) and gives the Conservatives a decent chance of winning the remainder (South Gloucestershire?) from the LDs. The possibility must be however that a Conservative seat would disappear, but perhaps a different alignment will be devised which causes something else to happen instead.
‘gives the Conservatives a decent chance of winning the remainder (South Gloucestershire?) from the LDs.’
A chance certainly but I think Steve Webb is popular enough at a constituency level to hold on – whether they screwfix Bradley Stoke in or out of the seat
Like the two Norman’s – Baker and Lamb – he has taken what seemed a fairly safe Tory seat in 97 and turned it into a Lib Dem stronghold
Of course all three are likely to lose most of the ‘borrowed’ Labour votes, but their majorities would seem to be of a sufficient size to withstand this
It’s the other Lib Dems in the South, East and South West that I feel for – they really will be up against it at the next election
Local election results for F&BS
Con 11105 41.2
Lab 8719 32.3
LD 4855 18
Ind 1351 5
Grn 948 3.5
Must admit I was surprised what the B commission did in this area as I thought they would retain the Thornbury & Yate constituency with three wards from here added and extend the bulk of this constituency to the Mangotsfield area of Kingswood.
I suspect that may still happen though as there wasn’t really a need for a radical redraw.
I actually missed out Frenchay and Stoke Park, I thought the figures weren’t quite right.
Con 12039 42.0
Lab 9163 32.0
LD 5162 18.0
Ind 1351 4.7
Grn 948 3.3
Thanks for the figures – a very average swing from 2010 to 2011 then.
I think it was a minor success for Labour to keep second place here in 2010.
2 Tory Cllrs have defected to UKIP. Former Mayor and S Glouc Cllr Ben Walker has said thet Party is “an elitist, self-serving gravy train.” He describes himself as working class and ex Royal Navy. A town cllr has joined him in defecting.
Filton airport is to close completely on 31st December to make way for residential and business development.