Filton and Bradley Stoke
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 14742 (35.7%)
Labour: 13541 (32.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 11243 (27.2%)
Other: 1820 (4.4%)
Majority: 1201 (2.9%)
New Seat: Filton and Bradley Stoke is largely made up of the old Bristol North-West, whose extent is now limited to the City of Bristol unitary authority, along with parts of the former Northavon and Kingswood constituencies.
Profile: Filton, a suburb of Bristol, is a centre for the aviation industry. Parts for the Airbus A380 are manufactured in Airbus`s Filton plant before being shipped to Broughton for assembly. The large Bradley Stoke housing development was built in the late 1980s and now forms a dormitory suburb for Bristol. The constituency also includes the villages of Almondsbury and Severn Beach to the West.
Candidates:
Jack Lopresti (Conservative) Mortgage broker and former estate agent. Bristol councillor until 2007. Contested Bristol East 2001. Contested South-West region in the 2004 European Election.
John Kiely (Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Business advisor. Former Bristol councillor. Contested Bristol East 1992.
Ian Boulton (Labour)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82640
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 18.7%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.3%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 71.6%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 20.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.4%
Owner-Occupied: 80%
Social Housing: 10% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
85 Responses
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Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
The Lib Dem vote will probably collapse here - it will be a reflection of parties competing for governmemt, but the Tories already have the edge here, although I think Labour will increase their share of the vote.
January 28th, 2008 at 12:14 amHaving looked at this seat in a bit more detail, i think the labour vote will drop by about five percent.This will mean that the seat will be a Lib dem/Tory marginal.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:00 amThe Next Council elections will be important as it will be highly likely that Labour will lose seats again meaning that the public perception will be of a Lib Dem/ Tory Marginal highlighting to voters that if they want to stop a Tory Victory then they will have to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats.
Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
The next local elections are in 2011.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:44 pmIf the 2007 elections were held in 2008, the chances are the Tories would have been even further ahead.
As for Lib Dem tactical voting, my objective opinion is people see it as a bit old hat.
They certainly do see it like that in London going by the results there. I’m not totally convinced it’s disappeared from all other parts of the country, especially places like Scotland and the northern cities.
May 20th, 2008 at 2:01 pmI don’t rule out tactical voting as a reality but I think at the end of the day people vote for who they want to be in govenment not who they don’t!!!
May 20th, 2008 at 2:04 pmBournemouth West
I’m surprised the Lib Dems have not selected a replacement for Emma Bone, who stood down as candidate a few months ago.
June 21st, 2008 at 3:39 pmThey have Matt. Alderman John Kieley, a former executive member of Bristol City Council. Very experienced campaigner who is already making excellent progress. Labour’s activity on the ground seems neglible, so while this seat is still looking good for the Conservatives the Lib Dems have establised themselves as the clear challenger.
June 21st, 2008 at 3:48 pmWhy was Bradley Stoke the worst hit town by negative equity in the 1990’s?
I believe house prices on some of the new estates fell by over 50%.
Is Bradley Stoke likely to be hit again, and if so what would the implications be for the election result here?
July 4th, 2008 at 10:20 pmZoopla.co.uk listed a typical house in Bradley Stoke which had fallen by over 14K in the past year (worse the national average).
Range £237,125 - £250,686
-£14,141 (-5.5%)
July 4th, 2008 at 10:25 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
Given this is so heavily owner occupied anyway, then I guess it has more people who want them to stay high,
July 4th, 2008 at 10:34 pmas opposed to a large rented population who want them to come down to a cheaper level.
But I’d expect the Tories to move more decisively ahead here anyway, given they have it notionally already, with Labour in second place.
I stand by my prediction that the LD bubble will also take a knock in this neck of the woods - Thornbury and Yate aswell.
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