Fife North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8715 (21.75%)
Labour: 6869 (17.15%)
Liberal Democrat: 17763 (44.34%)
SNP: 5685 (14.19%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.58%)
Majority: 9048 (22.59%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20088 (52.1%)
Conservative: 7517 (19.5%)
Labour: 4920 (12.8%)
SNP: 4011 (10.4%)
Other: 2020 (5.2%)
Majority: 12571 (32.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8190 (23.6%)
Labour: 3950 (11.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 17926 (51.7%)
SNP: 3596 (10.4%)
Other: 1030 (3%)
Majority: 9736 (28.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11076 (26.5%)
Labour: 4301 (10.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 21432 (51.2%)
SNP: 4545 (10.9%)
Referendum: 485 (1.2%)
Majority: 10356 (24.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Menzies Campbell(Liberal Democrat) born 1941, Glasgow. Educated at Hillhead High School and the University of Glasgow. Former Olympic sprinter, competing in the 1964 Olympics. Advocate, specialising in planning and licensing. Contested Greenock and Port Glasgow February and October 1974, East Fife 1979, Fife North East 1983 for the Liberal Party. First elected as Liberal MP for North East Fife in 1987. Deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2003 as well as their foreign affairs spokesman. He was a prominent figures in oppsition to the Iraq war and was perceived as a serious figure with gravitas in contrast to Charles Kennedy. Following Kennedy`s resignation he became interim leader and won the subsequent leadershp election, defeating Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne. His brief leadership lasted only 18 months, during which Campbell was ridiculed in the media for his age, before resigning in October 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Miles Briggs (Conservative) Educated at Perth Grammar School and Robert Gordon University. Political Advisor. 
Mark Hood (Labour) Menzies Campbell(Liberal Democrat) born 1941, Glasgow. Educated at Hillhead High School and the University of Glasgow. Former Olympic sprinter, competing in the 1964 Olympics. Advocate, specialising in planning and licensing. Contested Greenock and Port Glasgow February and October 1974, East Fife 1979, Fife North East 1983 for the Liberal Party. First elected as Liberal MP for North East Fife in 1987. Deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2003 as well as their foreign affairs spokesman. He was a prominent figures in oppsition to the Iraq war and was perceived as a serious figure with gravitas in contrast to Charles Kennedy. Following Kennedy`s resignation he became interim leader and won the subsequent leadershp election, defeating Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne. His brief leadership lasted only 18 months, during which Campbell was ridiculed in the media for his age, before resigning in October 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Rod Campbell (SNP) born 1953, Edinburgh. Educated at Reading School and Exeter University. Solicitor. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire 2001, 2003 Scottish elections, North East Fife 2005 and 2007 Scottish elections.
Mike Scott-Hayward (UKIP) Educated at Mansfield High SChool. HM Coastguard watchkeeper, formerly served in the Royal Artillery. Fife councillor. Contested Dunfermline West 1992, Edinburgh Central 1997, North East Fife 2001, 2005 for the Conservatives.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78856
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 65.2%
Graduates 16-74: 27.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 69.1%
Social Housing: 16.5% (Council: 14.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 11.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.4%
The ERS proposed merging this constituency with Kinross-shire, probably turning it into a three way marginal between the Tories, Lib Dems and SNP, and this proposal sparked a long argument between myself and my father about whether we should be merging areas in different council areas or whether we should merge rural and urban areas in the same council area. He proposed Fife Coastal, Fife Central and Fife West, which involved combining the working class new town of Glenrothes and the picturesque Howe of Fife and also merging St Andrews, the East Neuk, Levenmouth and Kirkcaldy into one big constituency. My view is that 60,000 people in the same area who vote predominantly for parties other than Labour should not end up with 2 Labour MPs representing them. Surely large STV multimember constituencies would solve this problem rather handily? 80,000 per MP under FPTP or AV is going to lead to hugely polarised constituencies in many areas and disproportionality becoming worse.
“The ERS proposed merging this constituency with Kinross-shire, probably turning it into a three way marginal between the Tories, Lib Dems and SNP”
Kinross-shire contains fewer than 10,000 electors so I can;t see it having the kind of impact you describe, especially as in local elections it has been the LDs who won the most votes there. It isn’t big enough to put either of the other parties in contention even if one or other of them were dominant there.
If Ming were to retire there’d probably be a similar kind of result to that in Banff and Buchan this year with the Tories coming relatively close to winning without actually doing so.
I was cheekily assuming a straight swing from the LDs to Labour/SNP based on their current polling in Scotland. On current results it would stay Lib Dem though
I think they will be obliged to cross council boundaries in the new review
In May 2010 the electorate of Fife constituencies apparently was:
Dunfermline and West Fife: 73,769
Fife North East: 62,969
Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath : 73,665
Glenrothes: 67,893
Total: 278,296
It’s in line with 2009 Euro elections electorate of 278,380.
They are entitled of 3 seats and a half. To have just 3 constituencies would mean 90,000+ voters which won’t be allowed.
“If Ming were to retire there’d probably be a similar kind of result to that in Banff and Buchan this year with the Tories coming relatively close to winning without actually doing so.”
Do you think? The Scottish Parliament seat (though not precisely the same) has not really ever been close even without Ming on the ballot – albeit the Lib Dem MSP is quite well respected too.
Yes I think the LDs are pretty well entrenched here too. However, if the LDs’ current poor position were to be maintained, then yes the Tories would be closer.
Although suggestions of the Tories getting close here would be dependant on a Tory recovery in Scotland which seems no nearer to happening and once the effectsof cuts the Scots will feel they didn’t vote for start to bite I rather expect them to move even further backwards. Of course, that probably won’t help the Libs either, but I suspect their support in many of their scottish seats is more loyal. Even if Menzies retires I would expect them to hold on here (providing there aren’t very unfavourable boundary changes). East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West however must be looking very takeable by Labour.
If you look at the 2007 regional vote you can see why I think the SNP has a chance here – without people voting LD to keep the tories out (that vote will surely go elsewhere from now on) the SNP came a close second here, albeit in a very good year for them. The tory vote is very unlikely to go up significantly anywhere in Scotland because, frankly, their policies are not representative of the views of the vast majority of the Scottish people. People don’t seem to understand that the Lib Dem vote is largely tactical in rural and suburban Scotland as people realised it was the only way to get rid of a tory MP – my aunt, mother, grandmother and father, none of whom would class themselves as Lib Dems, have all voted for Ming in the past few elections but none of them will do so again. Many of my friends who even identified themselves as Lib Dem supporters will either not vote or vote SNP or Labour, and don’t know of any who are happy with what Clegg has done to their party. And pretty much all Lib Dems in Scotland are progressively minded -when the remaining voters start seeing child and housing benefit slashed, the wealthiest continuing to thrive and millions being put on the dole by a Lib Dem/Tory government, I can’t see them sticking with the LDs much longer.
There is discussion going on on the Angus thread about how seats might be redistributed in Angus and Dundee to meet the Government’s proposed reduction in the number of Westminster MPs to 600. The trouble is that Angus and Dundee combined will be entitled to about two and a half MPs, and there is nowhere obvious with which to combine the half seat: part of Perthshire is not a good option because very few people live between Dundee and Perth for the reason that it used to be a bog.
One option that occurs to me is that some or all of the Fife communities on the bank of the Tay – Newport, Tayport and Wormit – could be combined with part of Dundee West to make up a Dundee West and North Fife seat. I am under no illusions that local people would like it – indeed they would hate the idea – but as I understand it the boundary commissioners will now be crossing county boundaries when necessary to create equal sized seats. Geographically and in community terms, now that the Tayside communities largely provide commuting for Dundee, there would in many ways be more sense in such a seat that in one combining parts of Dundee with Perthshire.
The psephological question is how a Dundee West and North Fife seat would vote, presumably using PR. Fife North East is currently lIbDem, and I presume there are a fair few LibDems on the South bank of the Tay. But Dundee West (and East) are definitely Labour/SNP contests – the LibDems and Tories are on about 10% each. So the question is whether the folk on the South bank of the Tay would change their votes to SNP or to Labour, either tactically or as second preferences under the AV system?
It should be said that the uncertainty of a Dundee and North Fife seat, along with geographical conservatism, probably means that none of the political parties would be enthusiastic about the Dundee and North Fife seat I am hypothetically considering.
Comments please!
I think Angus North & mearns is the obvious answer to the problem of Angus and Dundee being entitled to 2.5 seats. I don’t know what the entitlement of Fife is but if it needs to be linked with neighbouring areas than I think Clackmannanshire and/or Kinrossshire would be more logical answers.