Feltham and Heston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16516 (33.66%)
Labour: 21174 (43.63%)
Liberal Democrat: 6669 (13.59%)
BNP: 1714 (3.49%)
UKIP: 992 (2.02%)
Green: 530 (1.08%)
Independent: 853 (1.74%)
Others: 78 (0.16%)
Majority: 4658 (9.97%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19166 (48.3%)
Conservative: 11405 (28.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6516 (16.4%)
Other: 2626 (6.6%)
Majority: 7760 (19.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10921 (29.3%)
Labour: 17741 (47.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6177 (16.6%)
Green: 815 (2.2%)
UKIP: 612 (1.6%)
Other: 1016 (2.7%)
Majority: 6820 (18.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8749 (24.2%)
Labour: 21406 (59.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4998 (13.8%)
Other: 1024 (2.8%)
Majority: 12657 (35%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12563 (26.9%)
Labour: 27836 (59.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4264 (9.1%)
Referendum: 1099 (2.4%)
Other: 859 (1.8%)
Majority: 15273 (32.8%)
Boundary changes: Minor changes to bring boundaries into line with ward boundaries. Gains parts of Heston East, Heston Central and Hounslow West.
Profile: Feltham and Heston are the south and east of Heathrow airport respectively, and the airport is both a major source of local employment and, due to its possible expansion, a major political issue locally. Feltham was traditionally an area of blue collar Labour strength, but with the right to buy it is increasingly owner-occupied and has become the more Conservative half of the seat. It is also home to Feltham Young Offenders Institute. Heston meanwhile, once the more Conservative part of the seat, is now home to a large Sikh community and strongly Labour.
The seat was Conservative between 1983 and 1992, but in 1997 and 2001 Labour managed to secure a huge majority with nearing 60% of the vote. The Conservatives enjoyed an 8.4% swing in 2005 and have enjoyed success at local elections, but the Labour majority is still substantial and was further bolstered by the 2010 boundary changes.
Current MP: Vacant. Alan Keen(Labour) died in November 2011.
2011 By-election
Alan Keen died on the 10th November 2011, precipitating a by-election, which has been called for the 15th December.
By-election candidates: 
Mark Bowen (Conservative) Educated at Bryngwyn Comprehensive School and Greenwich University. IT project leader for British Airways. Hounslow councillor since 2002. Deputy leader of Hounslow council. Contested Feltham and Heston 2005, 2010.
Seema Malhotra (Labour) Born London. Educated at Warwick University. Management consultant and former chair of the Fabian Society. Contested South West London 2004 London assembly election.
Roger Crouch (Liberal Democrat)
Andrew Charalambous (UKIP) Born 1967, Highgate. Educated at William Foster School and Queen Mary College London. Non practicising barrister. Runs a social housing company. Contested Tottenham 1992, Edmonton 2010 for the Conservatives.
David Furness (BNP) Born London. Works in the computer industry. Contested Ealing North 2010.
Daniel Goldsmith (Green)
Roger Cooper (English Democrat) Born 1945, Hertfordshire. Catering consultant. Contested South West and Londonwide list in 2008 London elections. Contested London region in 2009 European elections. Contested Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
George Hallam (People Before Profit) Contested Lewisham East 2010.
David Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis) Painter, decorator and poet – writing under the pen name of Lord Biro. Contested Tatton 1997, Brentwood and Ongar 2001, Erewash 2005, Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008, Kettering 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election 2011.
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Mark Bowen (Conservative) IT project leader for British Airways. Deputy leader of Hounslow council. Contested Feltham and Heston 2005.Alan Keen(Labour) born 1937, Lewisham. Educated at St William Turner School, Redcar. Former computer systems analyst and manager. Hounslow councillor 1986-1990. MP for Feltham and Heston since 1992. PPS to Stephen Timms 1999-2001. He is married to Ann Keen, MP for Brentford and Isleworth (more information at They work for you)
Munira Wilson (Liberal Democrat) born 1978, London. Educated at Cambridge University. Former accountant and researcher for Nick Clegg MP. Richmond upon Thames councillor since 2006.
Elizabeth Anstis (Green) Contested Feltham and Heston 2005.
Jerry Shadbolt (UKIP) Born 1956. Formerly served in the Royal Navy.John Donnelly (BNP)Matthew Linley (Workers Revolutionary)Asa Khaira (Independent)Dharmendra Pati (Independent)Roger Williams (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 106998
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 25.7%
Over 60: 15.4%
Born outside UK: 29%
White: 59.8%
Black: 4.1%
Asian: 30.7%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 2.7%
Christian: 48.8%
Hindu: 8.5%
Muslim: 10.1%
Sikh: 12.1%
Full time students: 5.1%
Graduates 16-74: 19.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.4%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 7.3%)
Privately Rented: 8.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6%
LBernard-
“I imagine in years to come London will be heavily Labour with few Tory voting areas while the suburbs will become more Tory than they already are unless a new trend occurs whereby people start moving in the opposite direction.”
If by “the suburbs” you mean the home counties on the fringe of London, unfortunately for the Tories they hold almost all of these seats already so wouldn’t stand to gain much except through new constituencies being created due to rising population.
Certainly there are particular seats in London which the Tories currently hold which (on current boundaries) I would expect to be pretty safe for Labour in 5-10 years’ time:
- Enfield North
- Hendon
- Ilford North
- Croydon Central
- Harrow East
- Brentford & Isleworth
- Ealing Central & Acton (maybe)
In my own part of London there is a big arc of safe blue seats stretching from Bexleyheath/Crayford to South Croydon through Sidcup, Chislehurst, Orpington, Bromley and Beckenham. Although the Tories’ lead here might fray a bit I don’t expect them to lose any of these seats.
And on the west and south-west side of London, further gentrification might well help the Tories in Westminster North, North Kensington, Hammersmith and Tooting.
And in the very long term the Tories will most likely become close challengers in Hampstead and the nice parts of Islington and the Docklands (both north and south of the river).
H Hemmelig- a good post. I suspect that the Tories will gain some consolation inasmuch as their south east seats will became safer. I now very much doubt that Labour will regain its pre-2010 footholds there.
“Certainly there are particular seats in London which the Tories currently hold which (on current boundaries) I would expect to be pretty safe for Labour in 5-10 years’ time”
I don’t necessarily disagree with the thrust of tyour comment H.Hemmlig, but 5-10 years? Really?
Given that the next election is not due until 2015 (so 4 years) I’d be surprised if a lot of the seats you mention will be able to be described as ‘pretty safe’ for Labour at that time even if they win any or all of them. Indeed, many might think that the Tories have a fair chance of holding onto a lot of them in the right circumstances.
Perhaps you mean more like 10-20 years?
Also I’m surprised Finchley isn’t on the list as I remember this was being spoken of before 2005 as a seat that is longterm demographically trending to Labour. Has that been reversed now I wonder?
And can we really make accurate judgements on the political effects of demographic change until it has very clearly already happened, which in many of these seats it has not yet?
And whose to say that Labour will for all time be the primary party of choice for the sort of people that are demographically changing these areas? Demographic change could occure without affecting the political balance of the seat at all surely?
Yes, you’re right. “Safe for Labour” is over-egging it in terms of 2015.
I think in the next election, on existing boundaries, Enfield North, Hendon and Brentford would be pretty certain Labour gains. Croydon Central would also be a very good chance. It is possible that by 2021 these seats could be relatively safe for Labour.
Finchley is complicated by the Golders Green half, which is still pretty upmarket and (being next to Hampstead) in places gentrifying further. I don’t think demographic change in Finchley itself has been as fast as, say, Croydon, or even nearby Hendon.
Your last point kind of gets to the heart of the matter. To stop this trend the Tories need to attract upwardly-mobile middle class black and Asian votes.
I’m not sure you are right about Brentford & Isleworth or Ealing Acton. I think they share some of the charactersitics of the other seats you mentioned in te West and South West arc. This is true in any case of the inner part of Brentford & Isleworth (ie Brentford & Chiswick). Remember there will be boundary changes here as well. Brentford & Isleworth will lose Hounslow Heath ward which is the weakest Tory ward in the current seat. Meanwhile there is proposed a new ealing seat which loses Acton and should be almost safe for the Tories. Again the demographic changes of the kind you rightly describe as moving seats like Enfield North and Hendon away fromt he Tories are not really happening there.
Yes, Enfield North is certainly one which Labour will fancy in 2015. The Tories’ vote share has inched up a mere 6 percentage points since 1997. They even struggled last year, after boundary changes had made the seat notionally Conservative. That suggests profound change to me.
Not sure a 6% majority in Ealing can be described as ‘ almost safe’.
I’m sorry that Robin Hood seems to be have disappeared. Those by-election clips he was talking about sounded extremely interesting.
It isn’t if you are not capable of reading between the lines of a notional result, in particular how Labour are flattered by the strong personal vote for Stephen Pound in the two wards coming in from his seat. Though one of those wards (Hobbayne) is always likely to vote Labour anyway and South Acton likewise, Labour would really struggle to win a plurality here given the nature of the other wards in the seat. And here my point is that for the most part demographic change is of the gentrifying variety
“If by “the suburbs” you mean the home counties on the fringe of London, unfortunately for the Tories they hold almost all of these seats already so wouldn’t stand to gain much except through new constituencies being created due to rising population”
But they do need to strengthen many of those seats especially Thurrock, Dartford, the Medway towns bearing in mind those areas have much more in common with parts of Northern England than Southern English surburbia.
You are right that the south east wedge of London is solid Tory and will remain so along with Romford, Uxbridge, Kensington and Northwood. But we all know that the Tory days in Enfield and Ilford are slowly fizzling out (for now anyway)
“And on the west and south-west side of London, further gentrification might well help the Tories in Westminster North, North Kensington, Hammersmith and Tooting.”
I have a feeling that this is happening at a much slower rate than demographics swinging Outer London further to Labour. I agree with your point about the Docklands swinging to the Tories buut the way I have looked at it – we cannot win a Docklands seat with bits of gritty innner East London wedged in as the Labour estates will always outvote the Tory Docklands.
@ AndyJS
Sorry but things are hectic.
I do not have the facility to copy from DVD to VC
Robin Hood – thanks for the reply.
Obviously I don’t know whether your computer has this facility, but many computers these days are able to copy DVDs by copying the contents to the hard drive and then copying them back onto another disk. Is that an option?
Send me an email if you find a way to get the programme to me. Thanks.
I’ll see if I can do that – but don’t hold your breath as it’s a 7-year-old laptop which is on its last legs, and I’m no techie!
Failing that I might try and copy it onto a video casette, though had some problems last time I tried.
As you can tell I’m really not of the internet generation.
@ Andy JS
I succeeded in copying the DVD to my laptop but, despite changing to a slower speed, could not copy from the laptop back to a blank DVD. However, I’ve managed to copy from the DVD to a video cassette. Is that format any good to you? If you wish, I can copy from the VC to another DVD. (The quality is still reasonably good despite it being a copy of a copy).
I’ll email you about this in the New Year.
Census results, white British, 2001 / 2011:
Bedfont: 76.6% / 53.9%
Cranford: 31.1% / 15.8%
Feltham North: 75.5% / 49.7%
Feltham West: 80.6% / 53.0%
Hanworth: 77.8% / 56.9%
Hanworth Park: 80.2% / 59.0%
Heston Central: 29.7% / 14.5%
Heston East: 28.2% / 13.1%
Heston West: 32.9% / 17.0%
Hounslow West: 30.0% / 13.0%
Feltham & Heston: 53.9% / 34.8%
White overall, Feltham & Heston:
2001: 59.8%
2011: 44.9%
Looking at the scale of the change the Conservatives did pretty well between 2001 and 2010.
The non-White figures for the three Heston wards have follwed the following trajectories 1981*/1991/2001/2011
Heston C 23.4 / 44.3 / 63.7 / 76.6
Heston E 16.8 / 41.4 / 64.6 / 77.5
Heston W 23.9 / 44.1 / 61.6 / 76.2
*1981 figures of course were calculated by means of the strange ‘Percentage in households with head of household born in New Commonwealth or Pakistan’
@ Andy JS
Thanks for the figures. I have eluded to this continuing change before on this thread though I must admit that the figures are more dramatic than I had thought (and are probably out of date already).
The change is especially dramatic in the Feltham Wards but perhaps that is not surprising given that the white share has further to fall than in Heston. Nonetheless, having been active (against the BNP) in Feltham West in the 2010 local election I am genuinely surprised that the white British population is only 53% – it seemed like more than that on the ground.
Sorry, “eluded” should read “alluded”.