Esher and Walton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 32134 (58.91%)
Labour: 5829 (10.69%)
Liberal Democrat: 13541 (24.83%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.27%)
English Democrat: 307 (0.56%)
Monster Raving Loony: 341 (0.63%)
Independent: 378 (0.69%)
Others: 230 (0.42%)
Majority: 18593 (34.08%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 21882 (45.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 14155 (29.6%)
Labour: 9309 (19.4%)
Other: 2532 (5.3%)
Majority: 7727 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22296 (49%)
Labour: 10758 (23.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 10241 (22.5%)
UKIP: 2236 (4.9%)
Majority: 11538 (25.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 26747 (49.8%)
Labour: 12219 (22.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10937 (20.4%)
Referendum: 2904 (5.4%)
Other: 860 (1.6%)
Majority: 14528 (27.1%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Dominic Raab (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Chief of staff to Dominic Grieve and former foreign officer legal advisor.
Dominic Raab (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Chief of staff to Dominic Grieve and former foreign officer legal advisor. Francis Eldergill (Labour) 
Lionel Blackman (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Sutton Grammar. Solictor. Former Epsom and Ewell councillor.Bernard Collignon (UKIP) Educated at Eastbourne Grammar. Personnel Manager. Former member of the SDP. Contested Esher & Walton 1997, 2001, 2005.Mike Kearsley (English Democrat)
Chinners (Official Monster Raving Loony) Real name Jason Chinnery. Former civil servant. Contested Esher and Walton 2005.
Andy Lear (Best of a bad bunch) Born Kingston. Educated at Esher College and Kingston University. Technical manager.Tony Popham (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 102473
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 20.8%
Born outside UK: 15.1%
White: 94%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2.3%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 1.6%
Christian: 74.2%
Hindu: 0.9%
Jewish: 0.7%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 32.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.7%
Owner-Occupied: 78%
Social Housing: 10.9% (Council: 3.1%, Housing Ass.: 7.8%)
Privately Rented: 8.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.5%
I think the swing to the Lib Dems will be below the national average. I sense that Ian Taylor was not very popular even before the information about his second home came out – his share of the vote has decreased in all elections since 1997. The fact that he is no longer standing may well reduce the swing to the Lib Dems.
Have a friend in the constituency. Ian Taylor was utterly useless as an MP. Now he has gone, expect the Con maj to rise..
I agree that this isn’t a realistic LD target. They are already rather flattered by their position here and I don’t expect it to improve much, if at all.
CON HOLD as implied above
Huge increase in the Conservative vote share here – up 13% to 59%.
Paul’s analysis of May 3rd looks sound.
Yes, as soon as Ian Taylor left the scene the Tory vote rocketed. I just wish he’d been booted off the stage a lot earlier. You can’t get rid of big beasts like Heseltine and Clarke. But Taylor and Currey were always political pygmies-and it seems in this case at least, not particularly popular ones locally.
Shaun i wrote on this thread last year:
“It must have been difficult for someone like Ian Taylor to enthuse Conservative supporters, since he was so at odds with their values. There cant be many Conservative held seats where the numerical Tory vote, the vote share and the majority have fallen at every election since 1992 which demonstrates how incumbency can have a negative impact if the MP in question is obviously unpopular. This has gone from being the top 5 safe Tory seats to looking almost marginal in 2005.
The majority should go up to healthy proportions with the right candidate ”
I don’t know anything about Dominic Raab but the local electorate seem to approve far more than they did of their previous MP. There are often assumptions made about the incumbency vote of sitting MPs (and we can see how the loss of that can affect the result as in for example Maidstone) but it does sometimes seem to work the other way when on the retirement of an MP the majority shoots up.
The same happened in Chelmsford when Norman St John Stevas retired and in Surrey SW when Virginia Bottomley did.
Yes, I remember seeing that at the time Pete, and you have been proven to be absolutely correct.
As you say, I also know nothing about Dominic Raab. But I’d be surprised if the local party had chosen to select another raving EUphile following Taylor. That is of course, unless the association is one of the few in the country actually infested with raving EUphiles
Having said that, they never actually succeeded in deselecting Taylor did they. Although as I recall there was some movement to attempt to do so at one point.
I just hope that Taylor doesn’t instantly come back as Lord Taylor of Esher of something when Cameron appoints those 100 extra peers.
There are enough Lord Taylors as it is and there used to be even more.
I don’t think the Tory association is as right wing as all that here, but it probably found Taylor too Europhile nevertheless.
Remarkable result and clearly a negative incumbency factor as has been said, making it stand out from most very safe Tory seats where increases were modest and/or with small swings to the Libdems.
It all sounds very likely about Ian Taylor but for whom were the extra 10,000 Conservative voters actually voting for in 2005?
Not UKIP (who would seem the obvious choice) as their vote has increased as has the LibDem vote.
The big drop has come in the Labour vote so has the new Conservative candidate picked up much of the WWC vote (such as it is in a constituency like this)?
Perhaps the campaign just increased the turnout of tories hugely and the Labour base couldn’t be bothered voting for their candidate?