Erewash
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18805 (39.47%)
Labour: 16304 (34.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 8343 (17.51%)
BNP: 2337 (4.91%)
UKIP: 855 (1.79%)
Green: 534 (1.12%)
Independent: 464 (0.97%)
Majority: 2501 (5.25%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19272 (45.2%)
Conservative: 12379 (29%)
Liberal Democrat: 6094 (14.3%)
Other: 4919 (11.5%)
Majority: 6893 (16.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15388 (30.4%)
Labour: 22472 (44.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7073 (14%)
BNP: 1319 (2.6%)
UKIP: 941 (1.9%)
Other: 3360 (6.6%)
Majority: 7084 (14%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16983 (34.9%)
Labour: 23915 (49.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5586 (11.5%)
UKIP: 692 (1.4%)
BNP: 591 (1.2%)
Other: 829 (1.7%)
Majority: 6932 (14.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22061 (36.6%)
Labour: 31196 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5181 (8.6%)
Referendum: 1404 (2.3%)
Other: 496 (0.8%)
Majority: 9135 (15.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jessica Lee (Conservative) born 1976, Nottingham. Educated at Royal Holloway. Barrister. Contested Camberwell and Peckham 2005.
Jessica Lee (Conservative) born 1976, Nottingham. Educated at Royal Holloway. Barrister. Contested Camberwell and Peckham 2005.Cheryl Pidgeon (Labour)Martin Garnett (Liberal Democrat) Lee Fletcher (Green)Jodie Sutton (UKIP) Mark Bailey (BNP)Luke Wilkins (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91824
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 70.9%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 12%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.7%
Owner-Occupied: 77%
Social Housing: 14.8% (Council: 12.8%, Housing Ass.: 2%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%
her old seat I meant to say
The results across Berkshire were good… Hampshire was pretty good as well, though there were a couple of seats with swings to the Lib Dems.
Essex was also good, as was Lincolnshire. But I admit I haven’t made the sort of analysis Richard has, so I can’t make direct comparisons.
Actually, a county which could be a real rival to Derbyshire in terms of pro-Tory swings is Staffordshire.
Actually Surrey is patchy,
I agree Hampshire is very good for the Tories.
In fact there seems to be a south central
area of Hampshire, Berkshire, and the western end
of Surrey.
C vote is 4.3% up on 1997 here.
It fell a bit less than average here that year,
so it will be 6.3% below 1992, as far as I can tell from the boundaries.
Two very poor Tory results in 2001 and 2005 followed by a spectacular swing of more than 10% in 2010.
yes.
Not sure why they did badly in 2001/2005.
It looks as though the seat attracted more interest in 1997, and the Labour swing was assisted by tactical votes.
Maybe Angela Knight had some personal vote (although that could be me believing what I want to believe).
The end result, nevertheless, was a seat with a seat which didn’t look winnable for Cons in 2001/5 so
perhaps it didn’t attract as much effort or interest.
Labour’s vote held very well in 2005 though.
What happened to Liz Blackman? I didn’t knwo she stood down!! I think she would have held this seat if she were the Labour candidate.
To me it’s the wards in this seat and in Derby City that cause the most problems in trying to draw up larger constituencies. The Derby city wards are just too big to allow the necessary level of flexibility, and will as far as I can see have to be split under any proposal for the county.
Here the major source of irritation is Draycott ward in the current Erewash seat. It is drawn in such a way as to separate the nine wards in and around Long Eaton and Sandiacre from the rest of the county, meaning they can’t be placed in different consituencies. Whichever constituency Draycott is in (assuming no crossing of the Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire boundary) has to include the other nine wards.
My plan for the south of Derbyshire would involve the creation of a South East Derbyshire constituency based on this seat including the following county electoral divisions: Breadsall & West Hallam, Sandiacre, Breaston, Petersham, Sawley, Long Eaton, the West Hallam & Dale Abbey part of Kirk Hallam division and the Duffield part of Duffield and Belper South division. It would also include Oakwood and Spondon wards from Derby City, currently in Mid Derbyshire constituency. The electorate would be about 81,000.
I would have South Derbyshire brought up to size by adding to the current seat Chellaston ward from Derby City, currently in Derby South constituency, increasing the electorate to 80,000.
As for the City of Derby my prefernce would be for Derby North to take in Allestree ward currently in Mid Derbyshire increasing the electorate to just under 83,000.
The above proposals would leave a very undersized Derby South that would have to be brought up to size by splitting a lot of the Derby City wards included in oversized surrounding seats. Chellaston could be split so that not all of it was included in a redrawn South Derbyshire. Territory from Littleover and Abbey in Derby North could be moved into Derby South; an option that would become an even more attractive were Spondon to be divided between Derby North and South East Derbyshire, thus leaving Derby North more able to concede some territiory in the south to Derby South.
Overall I think my blueprint for the County of Derbyshire would result in three fairly safe Labour seats (Bolsover & Alfreton, NE Derbyshire and Derby South), two fairly safe Tory seats (Derbyshire Dales and South East Derbyshire), four marginals that would be Tory leaning to varying degrees (South Amber Valley & Ilkeston, South Derbyshire, Derby North and High Peak) and one possible three way marginal (Chesterfield, Dronfield and Wingerworth).
South Amber Valley and Ilkeston would be Labour’s best bet out of the four Tory leaning marginals, while the changes I’ve described would make the other three better bets for the Tories than the relevant seats are at the moment.
Long Eaton looks like it is rather a heavily owner occupied area with quite boxy new houses – 1970s onwards design.
I would guess quite a lot of swing voters in them.
As a frequent traveller to the Peak District, often go past this without stopping.