Enfield North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18804 (42.3%)
Labour: 17112 (38.49%)
Liberal Democrat: 5403 (12.15%)
BNP: 1228 (2.76%)
UKIP: 938 (2.11%)
Green: 489 (1.1%)
English Democrat: 131 (0.29%)
Christian: 161 (0.36%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 96 (0.22%)
Majority: 1692 (3.81%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 17100 (43%)
Labour: 16190 (40.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4581 (11.5%)
BNP: 891 (2.2%)
Other: 975 (2.5%)
Majority: 911 (2.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16135 (39.6%)
Labour: 18055 (44.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4642 (11.4%)
BNP: 1004 (2.5%)
UKIP: 750 (1.8%)
Other: 163 (0.4%)
Majority: 1920 (4.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15597 (40.9%)
Labour: 17888 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3355 (8.8%)
UKIP: 247 (0.6%)
BNP: 605 (1.6%)
Other: 451 (1.2%)
Majority: 2291 (6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17326 (36.3%)
Labour: 24148 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4264 (8.9%)
Referendum: 857 (1.8%)
Other: 1074 (2.3%)
Majority: 6822 (14.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Nick de Bois (Conservative)
Nick de Bois (Conservative) Joan Ryan(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Paul Smith (Liberal Democrat)
Bill Linton (Green) Born 1947, Sunderland. Educated at Newcastle RGS and Oxford University. Retired computer consultant.Madeline Jones (UKIP)Tony Avery (BNP)Raquel Weald (English Democrat) Anthony Williams (Christian Party) Anna Athow (Workers Revolutionary)Gonul Daniels (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90825
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 16.4%
White: 85.8%
Black: 6.6%
Asian: 3.9%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 69.1%
Hindu: 1.5%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 6%
Full time students: 3.9%
Graduates 16-74: 18.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 71.4%
Social Housing: 18.7% (Council: 15.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.6%
This seat is going against the Conservatives long term, gradually.
Agree with you there Joe…
As parts of this seat take on more characteristics of Edmonton, those living in the areas affected (and with the money to move out) will simply move to Herts or parts of Essex while those that move in will probably (although not necessarily) be more inclined to vote Labour.
I don’t disagree about the long term movements in outer North London generally – although these are not fixed for ever, and if political circumstances change, so could these trends. Nor am I arguing about local elections in Enfield, although as pointed out above “coat-tails” work both ways.
However I do insist that the swing in Enfield North at the last general election was lower than in say Finchley or Hendon, let alone Southgate. This was almost certainly partly due to Joan Ryan as were similar low swings in North East Somerset and Stroud.
Back in 2007 Sean Fear highlighted the demographic changes happening here but underestimated their effect:
“As with Edmonton, I think that the constituency east of the Hertford Road, does have a rapidly increasing ethnic minority population. As the area is not prosperous, that should favour Labour.
However, the loss of Ponders End is a blow to Labour. And Enfield Town, Enfield Chase, and Highlands wards will be solidly Conservative in a general election. Turkey Street and Southbury are more mixed, but should probably produce Conservative leads in an even year.”
I think it was much closer because Turkey Street and Southbury didn’t produce Con leads in a more than even year
The London Borough of Enfield was 61.2% white British in 2001.
In 2011 the figure was 40.5%.
Using that rate of decline the figure in December 2012 would already be down to 36.8%.
Incredible demographic change if the census figures are reliable.
Well certainly, a relatively good result for the Tories in 2001 and 2002
seemed to stall thereafter.
It seemed to be one of the first areas in and then out again of a Con recovery.
It doesn’t seem to have affected Southgate though.
In 2006, my party, me included, seemed to rather brush aside a relatively poor set of local elections on the Hospital campaign but it does seem the damage was underway.
Looking at the census results it would take a miracle for the Tories to hold this next time.
On the other hand we don’t have the ward breakdowns so we don’t know how this particular constituency has changed.
It could be that there is still a sizeable Con-Lab swing voter group of the old kind here
but not as large as it was,
but that the core Labour vote is increasing and fairly rapidly.
An important question is who do we think the first group is largely with already here?
The low Lib Dem vote suggests limited scope for swings although if it collapses to about 4 or 5% there would be about 8 points up for grabs.
If the Tories do better than in 2010 overall – which of course is our objective – then they would have a chance but one feels this would be one of the against the trend losses even then.
If Labour actually does well, then the majority would be 5,000 +
“Of all the changes announced by the 2011 census, one of the most startling is the rapid change in the ethnic composition of London’s population. This has caught experts by surprise and reflects an underestimate of the extent to which white British people have opted to leave an increasingly diverse London”:
ht tp://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blog/2011-census-immigration-white-flight/
I meant to also include this link:
ht tp://www.demos.co.uk/blog/whiteflightfromlondon
Ethnic composition of this seat in 2011 compared with 2001
White 67.5 / 85.8
Black 15.5 / 6.6
Asian 6.7 / 3.9
Mixed 5.6 / 2.6
Other 4.7 / 1.1
White British 51.0
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Chase: 80.7% / 63.6%
Enfield Highway: 66.0% / 38.0%
Enfield Lock: 69.4% / 38.1%
Highlands: 76.6% / 63.7%
Southbury: 70.3% / 45.6%
Town: 82.8% / 68.6%
Turkey Street: 73.3% / 44.1%
Enfield North: 74.4% / 51.0%
Some particularly large drops in Enfield Highway, Enfield Lock, Southbury and Turkey Street.
Which are more or less the wards which delivered a Labour majority on Enfield council in 2010
I suppose the question is whether those who have lleft are more likely to be Tory and whether they have moved to Tory strongholds which will just make safe Tory seats stay Tory – but see the Tories lose marginal London seats
Yes is the answer to that question IMO. As I’ve said elsewhere I think the August 2011 riots may have speeded up the process. Unfortunately the census won’t reflect that coming a few months too early.
Andy, why do you think the riots will have speeded up the process?
You may well be right,
but you seem very strongly of that view – is there any tentative evidence of this?
Given the figures are almost rock bottom in some areas already, I had some optimism the Tories would be almost over the worst in some areas, but HH has correctly reminded me that the electorate figure takes time to catch up.
That was the experience in the USA in the 1960s. Riots in places like Detroit were followed by white flight on a large scale.
I’m not sure people can afford to move in large numbers at the moment,
even if they are moving somewhere cheaper, it’s a big upheaval – particularly if you’re paying high fares to come back in.
But we’ll see over the next few years.
I would have thought people who don’t like the situation would have gone already.
You might be right though about 2011-13.
But isn’t it the case that people can still make enough money from selling a house in London to buy a bigger property outside the capital? Property prices are still rising in London whereas they’re falling almost everywhere else.
You are making far too much of the riots Andy.
There’s no evidence it has caused people to move away.
In the areas which experienced the worst rioting like Tottenham and Broad Green there are hardly any white middle class people left to leave.
If it were to become a more regular thing it might be different.
“But isn’t it the case that people can still make enough money from selling a house in London to buy a bigger property outside the capital?”
And also perhaps find more suitable employment?
I do have a theory that London employment is increasingly dominated by top end jobs and bottom end jobs servicing them.
With not much employment in the middle.
But ‘traditional’ lower middle and skilled working class employment still exists outside London.
You also have to remember that these Outer London seats used to be the places where you would have loads of self employed tradesman who do not necessarily rely on being able to travel into Central London.
As things stand I have no idea how this seat will go next time round.
Labour have opted for an AWS here. Is Joan Ryan considering an attempt to comeback?