Eltham
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16431 (42.2%)
Conservative: 13257 (34.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6528 (16.8%)
BNP: 911 (2.3%)
Other: 1777 (4.6%)
Majority: 3174 (8.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12105 (34.3%)
Labour: 15381 (43.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5669 (16.1%)
BNP: 979 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1024 (2.9%)
Other: 147 (0.4%)
Majority: 3276 (9.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10859 (32.1%)
Labour: 17855 (52.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4121 (12.2%)
Green: 706 (2.1%)
Other: 251 (0.7%)
Majority: 6996 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13528 (31.2%)
Labour: 23710 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3701 (8.5%)
Referendum: 1414 (3.3%)
Other: 1075 (2.5%)
Majority: 10182 (23.4%)
Boundary changes: Loses part of Woolwich Common and a small part of Glyndon to Greenwich & Woolwich and part of Plumstead to Erith and Thamesmead. Gains part of Middle Park & Sutcliffe, part of Eltham West (including the Ferrier Estate), most of Kidbrooke with Hornfair and an insignificant part of Shooters Hill from Greenwich & Woolwich.
Profile: A south-east London seat in the borough of Greenwich. Eltham is the more Conservative part of Greenwich - in fact it was a Tory seat from 1975 when Peter Bottomley won a by-election in the then Woolwich West until 1997. Parts of the seat like New Eltham are largely suburban commuterland with more in common with areas like Bexley. There is also a large amount of open green space here, such as Oxleas Wood, Shooters Hill and Avery Hill park, now a campus for the University of Greenwich.
The suburban parts of the constituency though are balanced out by the large proportion of council estates such as Middle Park, Page, Horn Park, Coldharbour and the horrendous Ferrier estate, currently being emptied of residents prior to its eventual demolition and planned replacement.
Current MP: Clive Efford (Labour) born 1958, London. Educated at Walworth Comprehensive. Former London taxi driver. Greenwich councillor 1986-1998. Contested Eltham 1992. First elected as MP for Eltham in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
David Gold (Conservative) born 1972. Educated at Royal Holloway. Development director at Brighton College, former business consultant and aide to William Hague. Contested Brighton Pavilion in 2001, then the first openly gay Conservative candidate selected in a winnable seat.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87579
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 20.7%
Born outside UK: 12.3%
White: 86.7%
Black: 5.8%
Asian: 3.7%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 66.7%
Hindu: 1.2%
Muslim: 2.8%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 19%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 59.3%
Social Housing: 32.8% (Council: 27%, Housing Ass.: 5.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Other than hunch I cannot see why the pessimism (from a Conservative perspective)? Much of Eltham is three-bed semi land like Bexleyheath where people expect the Conservatives to do well. There isn’t a big ethnic minority vote compared to many other inner london seats. And the negatives of Brown here are legion - grumpy, scottish, out-of-touch…
I bow to other’s psephological brilliance but think this might be an easier win for the Conservatives that some seem to be predicting.
You might be correct - there is quite a lot of similarity between Eltham and Bexleyheath. I think some of the Tories on here are a bit wary of making over optimistic Lib Dem style predictions. I think the Tories can win here, but the local elections don’t seem as conclusive as in Bexleyheath.
JJB
You’re right about the local election results - really need to do better than 36%. Surpised at the Lib Dem performance - thought they would be further behind especially as they only have 2 councillors.
Woolwich West was a Tory seat prior to 1964 but remained Labour in 1970, but was gained by the Tories in a 1974 - 1979 by election and retained till 1997 (as Eltham).
Tories should win here!
I estimate a Conservative gain by at least 2000 next time.
London 2008 results - Eltham (new boundaries):
{Excluding postal votes}
Mayor:
C - 12,315 (49.10%), Lab - 7,446 (29.69%), LD - 2,274 (9.07%), BNP - 1,449 (5.78%), Green - 571 (2.28%)
Constituency Vote, (Greenwich&Lewisham):
C - 9,065 (36.08%), Lab - 7,210 (28.70%), LD - 2,509 (9.99%), National Front - 2,565 (10.21%), Green - 1,385 (5.51%)
List:
C - 8,748 (34.77%), Lab - 6,487 (25.79%), LD - 2,255 (8.96%), BNP - 2,982 (11.85%), Green - 1,562 (6.21%)
POSTAL VOTES for whole of Greenwich:
Mayor: Lab - 5,344 (40.73%), C - 4,697 (35.80%), LD - 1,336 (10.18%), BNP - 570 (4.34%), Green - 405 (3.09%)
Constituency: Lab - 5,039 (38.52%), C - 3,811 (29.13%), LD - 1,375 (10.51%), Green - 883 (6.75%), National Front - 761 (5.82%)
List: Lab - 4,643 (35.53%), C - 3,768 (28.83%), LD - 1,263 (9.66%), Green - 878 (6.72%), BNP - 810 (6.20%)
Eltham represented 43.20% / 43.23% / 43.20% of non-postal Greenwich votes for the 3 sections respectively.
The Greens have selected Arthur Hayles here