Elmet and Rothwell
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23778 (42.62%)
Labour: 19257 (34.52%)
Liberal Democrat: 9109 (16.33%)
BNP: 1802 (3.23%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.86%)
Independent: 250 (0.45%)
Majority: 4521 (8.1%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 24642 (44.7%)
Conservative: 18347 (33.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9617 (17.4%)
Other: 2514 (4.6%)
Majority: 6295 (11.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17732 (37.6%)
Labour: 22260 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5923 (12.6%)
BNP: 1231 (2.6%)
Majority: 4528 (9.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17867 (38.9%)
Labour: 22038 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 5001 (10.9%)
UKIP: 1031 (2.2%)
Majority: 4171 (9.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19569 (36.2%)
Labour: 28348 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4691 (8.7%)
Referendum: 1487 (2.7%)
Majority: 8779 (16.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alec Shelbrooke (Conservative)
Alec Shelbrooke (Conservative) James Lewis (Labour) Leeds councillor since 2003.Stewart Golton (Liberal Democrat) Darren Oddy (UKIP)Sam Clayton (BNP) Christopher Nolan (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99014
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 22.8%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 80.6%
Jewish: 0.6%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.6%
Owner-Occupied: 79%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 1.4%)
Privately Rented: 3.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.1%
Pete and Richard,
thanks for taking me through the figures on this very interesting marginal.
Leeds as a whole is about 25% public sector employment – again need to trace the exact figure for Wetherby,
so 25% employment level in public sector,
and 23.6% increase in 1998-2008.
This is the first time that Rothwell has not had a Labour MP since 1904. It had not previously been represented by a Conservative MP since 1880
I can’t think of any other towns which were represented by other than a Conservative MP for the entire 20th century but have a Conservative MP now.
Solihull is a rare example of the opposite – a town which was represented by a Conservative MP throughout the whole of the last century (and most of the previous century) but does not have a Conservative MP now.
I don’t think there is one
Colne Valley a Pennines seat created in 1885 didn’t have a Tory MP until 1987 – in the form of the cash-for-questions right winger Graham Riddick, who held on until 1997
They have a Tory MP now
I often think Kippax is a good name.
Don’t think it’s a ward title anymore (Barwick & Kippax previously).
Yes Kippax & Methley is one of the wards in this seat. Barwick in Elmet was moved into Harewood ward.
I hope this seat gets left alone now.
It depends how the seats will be equalised.
At present there are 2 Leeds seats with 5 wards – Elmet & Rothwell and Central – and 5 with 4 wards – NW, W, NE, E – and one with 3 wards plus 2 smaller Wakefield wards – Morley & Outwood.
If the seats are to made equal it will need either the Leeds wards completely reorganising or wards to be split between differetn seats.
Either way a big and messy job.
“Leeds as a whole is about 25% public sector employment – again need to trace the exact figure for Wetherby,”
Would imagine much less for this constituency with the A1 and all the industrial estates around Wetherby.
Wetherby must be a good contender for most industrial Conservative stronghold or most Conservative industrial town.
I wonder if Pete has exact numbers of each ward for different types of employment.
I will have a dig around for some figures – I know I promised before.
Basically I suspect, as I think you do, Richard, that the
public sector element is relatively low here.
Is Kippax an area where former miners live?
I think I do have some figures somewhere. I had no idea Wetherby was industrial. I imagined it as some picturesque market town. What kind of industry is conducted there? I know the British Library has a large depot at Boston Spa but that isn’t exactly industry.
Re: Kippax, I assume this is a influenced by former (or even current?) miners. The old Barwick & Kippax ward was reasonably competitive for the Tories, although they never won there since 1982, but Kippax & Methley is the strongest Labour ward in this seat and one of ther strongest now in the whole of Leeds. Presumably then the wqard boundary changes removed some good Tory rural areas to Harewood ward and left a rather solid Labour core in Kippax
It is a very nice market town but I suspect there’s been quite a lot of new businesses etc. around it.
I would guess it’s more of the light industry type though.
No train station so it’s a bit of a hassle to get into Leeds – either driving (i.e no drink after work), or a rambling bus service, although I run an Express.
Feels a bit like a bit of North Yorkshire.
Although they run an Express.
(the” I ” was left in from “I think”)
The Tory share does seem to have dropped a bit in Wetherby over the years, although it’s obviously partly Harewood.
For instance, they polled 62% in Wetherby in 1986 – in a poor set of local elections after Westland and number of other cockups.
67% in 1988 and 74% in 1982.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to have been a problem for the Tories with a near 10% swing in Elmet and Rothwell, with this area expanding overall.
It would be nice to see the return of the Barkston Ash constitiuency as various people have proposed on this thread.
Wetherby isn’t heavy industrial but there does seem to be a lot of industrial estates surrounding it – the access to the A1 being an advantage.
From the source of all human knowledge:
“Wetherby has a large manufacturing presence, both in the town and on the near by Thorp Arch Trading Estate. The majority of residents in Wetherby work in Leeds, however many work on the Sandbeck industrial estate, major retailers in the town centre or the Thorp Arch Trading Estate. Particularly big employers in Wetherby are the British Library, Morrisons, Goldenfry Foods and, Moores Furniture and The Forensic Science Service. It is also not uncommon for Wetherby residents to work in York, Harrogate, Bradford or Wakefield.
Perhaps the most notable company to emerge from Wetherby is Goldenfry. Goldenfry started life as a Wetherby fish and chip shop, the company now make many products, the most notable being their own brand gravy. Goldenfry manufacture every UK supermarket own brand gravy.[12] Goldenfry is situated on Sandbeck Way
Formerly Safepack and Mondipack, Inspirepack have a large factory in Wetherby producing boxes and packaging on Sandbeck Lane.
Moores Furniture Group Limited has a large furniture factory on the Thorp Arch Trading Estate. The employee bus picks up many of their employees from various parts of Wetherby and is a common sight on the streets of Wetherby.
Farnell (also trading as Premier Farnell or Farnell Instruments) opened their first factory in Wetherby in 1956 (made up of former W.D. huts) on Wetherby’s York Road Industrial Estate. The company grew so much that by 1963 they required new premises and moved to a purpose built factory on the town’s Sandbeck Industrial Estate.[13] The company specialise in the manufacture and wholesale distribution of Electrical, Electronic and Measurement, Control and Instrumentation equipment. In the 1990s the company left the town and now have their main offices in Armley. The company is one of the largest engineering wholesalers.”
So gravy capital of Britain!
I would say that Wetherby seems (from what I’ve seen) not ‘gritty’ but certainly a lot less ‘la-di-dah’ than Harrogate or touristy than Skipton and Ripon.
Knarresborough is very touristy as well.
Apart from the racecourse I doubt Wetherby attracts many visitors.
“So gravy capital of Britain!”
Surely that would be wherever Bisto is manufactured
“Re: Kippax, I assume this is a influenced by former (or even current?) miners. The old Barwick & Kippax ward was reasonably competitive for the Tories, although they never won there since 1982, but Kippax & Methley is the strongest Labour ward in this seat and one of ther strongest now in the whole of Leeds. Presumably then the wqard boundary changes removed some good Tory rural areas to Harewood ward and left a rather solid Labour core in Kippax”
According to Wikipedia there were three mines still in use in 1984 in Kippax ward – Methley, Ledstone and Allerton Bywater.
I imagine even now there are probably a few Kippax ward voters who work at Kellingley.
Its not surprising that Kippax is so strongly Labour as it is immediately to the north of Castleford.
There would have been mines in Garforth and Swillington too, but they would have closed during the 1960s.
“Surely that would be wherever Bisto is manufactured”
Biston versus Asda Gravy + Tesco Gravy + Sainsbury Gravy + Morrisons Gravy etc
Would be close but the trend favours the supermarkets.
“I’ve had a look at the West Yorkshire ward boundaries and it appears difficult to draw the ideal boundaries from the Tories point of view, although considering just this seat the substitution of Temple Newsome for Rothwell would clearly be to the Tories’ advantage.”
Or perhaps not!
It certainly seems that Rothwell was better for the Conservatives than Crossgates & Whinmoor.
I think you’re right Richard. I guess you are quoting me (it sounds like me). On my figures both Rothwell and Temple Newsome had a Labour lead of about 1,000 over the Conservatives – Crossgates & Whinmoor about 2,000. This does assume quite a large number who voted LD locally voting Tory in the general election, because Labour’s lead over the Tories in Rothwell was nearer 2,000 in the local elections, but this would seem to be a reasonable assumption as discussed earlier.
Polling Station in Wetherby, on 6th May.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Polling_station_on_Aire_Road_in_Wetherby,_West_Yorkshire_(6th_May_2010).jpg
Is this just 5 wards?
Garforth & Swillington
Kippax
Rothwell
Harewood
Wetherby
perhaps Whinmoor aswell.
Labour seem to have extended their lead quite a lot in Kippax which is a concern to the Tories
but looking back they are more ahead there than I thought.
Cross Gates, Whinmoor & Swarcliffe is now in Leeds E, as I think it used to be in the Denis Healey days- it was in Elmet before 2010.
2011 local election results with changes on 2010
Lab 43.6% (+9.9%)
Con 40.7% (+2.0%)
LD 8.8% (-11.4%)
Oth 4.2% (-3.1%)
Lab won Garforth/Swillington, Kippax/Methley and Rothwell (I think that last one may have been a gain as Rothwell was Lib Dem in 2010). The Tories won Harewood and Wetherby.
Sadly we lose an historic name in elmet, with the northern wards moving into the new Leeds NE and the southern wards (Garforth, Kippax, Rothwell) moving into Leeds SE
I am disappointed to see this change.
A number of historic names are disappearing in these redrawn seats.
If we could at least retain some of the names even if the boundaries change that could be something to deal with on the appeal/discussion process.
Paul – do you have an estimate of how Leeds NE voted in 2010?
Joe, adding the 2010 Local results the new Leeds NE would have voted something like this…
Lab 19252
Con 18072
Lib 9317
With these being local results I suspect it marginally disproportionately inflates the Labour vote (immigrants who can’t vote in a General Election) so it would have been tight
So Harewood and Wetherby are stuck in a seat which Labour would probably hold in a bad year?
The new Leeds NE would be Labour in an even year and spreads from Wetherby through the outer council estates into the inner city.
There might be some more Conservative votes in Seacroft and Gipton though if the Conservatives actually campaign there.
Which is one good thing of such radical changes – parties will have to make a wider effort rather than in the same old wards.
Incidentally the new Leeds NE contains nothing of the old Leeds NE.
Instead 3/4 of the old Leeds NE goes into the new Leeds NW although only 1/4 of the old Leeds NW does.
Yes, and I’d be rather surprised if the Leeds NE name survived for the proposed new seat, given how much the residents of Wetherby hate being “part of Leeds” rather than a town in their own right – locals may remember around 20 years ago there was huge opposition to road signs saying “Leeds City Council welcome you to Wetherby” as they didn’t want the association.
Am I right in thinking that the new Leeeds North East is effectively the old Leeds East seat minus Temple Newsam and plus Harewood and Wetherby?
Given that the old Leeds North East now seems to form the basis of what looks to me like as close to a safe Tory seat in Leeds that you are ever going to get (the new Leeds North West and Nidderdale), it looks to me like the Tories are far and away the winners here with one seat that will be theirs most of the time and another that would be theirs when they are winning.
Of course, the downside is the loss of marginal Elmet and Rothwell (Leeds South East) to Labour.
It looks like you could retain the old Elmet & Rothwell and simply add Burmantofts ward to the old Leeds East.
Thereby keeping an urban and rural split, which would make more sense than the new Leeds NE.
I wonder if the Conservatives will argue for it at the recommendation.
Though they would then have to say that Rothwell goes nicely with Wetherby when at the last review they were probably saying the opposite
I’ve just got round to looking at the map for Yorkshire and there’s some real horrors. I assumed North Yorkshire would stay unmolested but they’ve obviously had to take wards from there to avoid splitting wards in West Yorkshire. I must say (not for the first or last time I fear) that splitting wards would definately have been the lesser of two evils
I think the arrangement of Hull and Haltenprice is odd.
Hull and Haltenprice (West Hull surburbia – Cottingham to Hessle) would have met the quota for three constituencies.
The Hull seats don’t include the two Cottingham wards but do include two wards beyond Hull & Haltenprice (Dale and Holderness SW).
I would put the form three Hull and Haltenprice constituencies as follows -
Hull East (all of East Hull except Drypool, Marfleet and Southcoates West). That includes the East Hull wards of Kings Park and Bransholme (currently in Hull North).
Hull North & Haltenprice (Avenue, Beverley, Bicknell, Newland, Orchard Park and University and the 5 Haltenprice wards from East Yorkshire).
Hull Riverside (the 9 remaining wards of Hull stretching along the Humber from Derringham and Pickering in the West to Marfleet in the East).
This would mean that the Beverley & Holderness constituency would need to be retained but that would be a reasonable price to pay for a more logical Hull as opposed to the dogs breakfast presented.
I would call a constituency based on the current Yorkshire East….Bridlington & Pocklington.
Wetherby, local elections
Con share %
2012 55.9
2011 59.9
2010 52.9
Would be interesting to have the vote share for the whole constituency.
Decided to work it out myself: Lab 12,048 (42.32%) C 9,733 (34.19%) others 6,686 (23.49%)
…..which is an intriguing almost exact reversal of the percentages at the general election.
Which seats has Harewood ward been in?
Well obviously this was a new ward in 2004, most of it coming from Wetherby. About 2000 voters in Harewood itself came from the old North ward and therefore were in Leeds NE from 1983 to 2010 but the rest of the ward would have been in the Elmet seat then. Before 1983 I think the whole area including Harewood itself were in Barkston Ash and would have been so since 1885
So looks like this seat will remain unchanged.
Will be interesting.
‘ About 2000 voters in Harewood itself came from the old North ward and therefore were in Leeds NE from 1983 to 2010 but the rest of the ward would have been in the Elmet seat then’
From Wikipedia: ‘The Third Periodical Review in 1983 initially proposed a Leeds North East County Constituency comprising 33,200 electors out of 60,120 in the existing borough together with half of the previous Leeds North West seat and Harewood and Wetherby from the Barkston Ash seat. At a public inquiry the plans were challenged and the assistant Commissioner recommended that the Leeds North East constituency remain urban and based on the previous seat, comprising Chapel Allerton, Moortown, North and Roundhay wards; this alteration was accepted by the Boundary Commission.[11] The changes still removed 10,000 electors, mostly to Leeds East but some to Leeds Central and Elmet, and brought in 16,000 electors, mostly from Leeds North West and Barkston Ash and a small number from Leeds South East’
I presume this means that Harewood House itself was in Elmet from 1983 to 2010 and not Leeds NE
No. It was in Leeds North East. It and the whole of Harewood Parish were part of the North ward
Thanks for clarification, Pete
In the zombie review (long may it shine in our hearts) “Elmet” is formed by the wards of Temple Newsam, Garforth/Swillington, Crossgates/Whinmoor, Harewood, and Wetherby.
Rothwell finds itself in the charmingly named “Leeds South East and Castleford”.