Ellesmere Port and Neston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15419 (34.86%)
Labour: 19750 (44.65%)
Liberal Democrat: 6663 (15.06%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.66%)
Independent: 782 (1.77%)
Majority: 4331 (9.79%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20653 (48.5%)
Conservative: 14041 (33%)
Liberal Democrat: 6659 (15.6%)
Other: 1219 (2.9%)
Majority: 6612 (15.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13885 (33%)
Labour: 20371 (48.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6607 (15.7%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.9%)
Majority: 6486 (15.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12103 (29.1%)
Labour: 22964 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4828 (11.6%)
UKIP: 824 (2%)
Green: 809 (1.9%)
Majority: 10861 (26.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15274 (29.1%)
Labour: 31310 (59.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4673 (8.9%)
Referendum: 1305 (2.5%)
Majority: 16036 (30.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Andrew Miller(Labour) born 1949, Middlesex. Educated at Hayling Island Secondary School and the LSE. Former trade union official. First elected as MP for Ellesmere Port and Neston in 1992 (more information at They work for you)
Stuart Penketh (Conservative) Educated at the University of Manchester. Geologist. Bury councillor since 2007.Andrew Miller(Labour) born 1949, Middlesex. Educated at Hayling Island Secondary School and the LSE. Former trade union official. First elected as MP for Ellesmere Port and Neston in 1992 (more information at They work for you)
Denise Aspinall (Liberal Democrat) Henry Crocker (UKIP) Educated at Ellergreen Road Boys School. Retired ships agent. Contested Ellesmere Port and Neston 2001, 2005.
Jonathan Starkey (Independent) Educated at Stanney Comprehensive and the Royal Northern College of Music. Composer and businessman. Former Ellesmere Port and Neston councillor for the Conservative party.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88203
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 82.3%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 16.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.2%
Owner-Occupied: 74.3%
Social Housing: 20% (Council: 17.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 3.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.2%
The Lib Dems have selected Denise Aspinall, a senior lecturer in Liverpool
The LibDems will do nothing as usual. They have around half a dozen members here and were only ever strong in one of the old, smaller Borough wards of Riverside in Neston.
One local Labour councillor has been spotted trawling around mid Cheshire trying to get himself nominated for Weaver Vale and only 3 other members have been seen doing any election work so far, interestingly none of them councillors.
Lab Hold= 1,500 maj
I think that the only factor, which could finish off Labour here is a low turnout in the Ellesmere Port side of the constutency. I think that the tories will be strong in the Great Sutton/Little Sutton areas of this constituency.
Lab Hold
Maj 3100
Lab maj 500
This seat is featured all week by BBC1 Northwest News. Vauxhall and a poor ward in EP was featured. The Tory PPC looked about 25.
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I am not a member of any political party but I am interested in how the BBC covered this semi marginal constituency on North West Tonight, because it seemed to me that they only presented it as an industrial constituency when there are many areas which are rural/ semi rural and more Cheshire than Merseyside. Any other views appreciated.
Based on the latest opinion polls this seat may be too close to call and is probably one the Conservatives are reputedly treating as a late target.
How many recounts here?
Very much so. With some of the LD held seats looking tougher for the Tories now a seat like this and others in a similar range (Chorley, Sherwood, Wakefield) are whats going to decide whether the Tories have a working majority or not (although on the predictions i’ve posted here the Tories have a small majority without winning this seat)
I wonder about the support for the Conservative Stuart Penketh here as his associations website doesn’t seem to have been updated since 31/3 and isn’t making any mention of the week long broadcast on BBC from the constituency.
LAB HOLD
I’m revising my prediction here to a Con gain
Pandora – the Liverpool Echo said that the Tory PPC here had been forced to remove postings from his blog. I’d predict a Labour majority of 1,500.
Well a great result for Labour. This seat’s proximity to Merseyside I suspect has something to do with the figures. But once more Labour has done far better with a good incumbent than without – compare this result to Weaver Vale.
Which constituencies included Ellesmere Port before 1974?
Would have been in Bebington before then, surely? (The seat was briefly represented by Geoffrey Howe in the 60s).
It was only in Bebington & Ellesmere Port from 1974-84 before that it was in the Wirral (therefore when Geoffrey Howe represented Bebington). Its some mark of the long term Tory decline in this area that they could win Bebington & Ellesmere Port in 1979 but could not win what is in effect Bebington & Heswall in 2010
Selwyn Lloyd therefore represented it for all but the last two years of his parliamentary career, and all but the last two years of his Speakership
Looking at the constituency numbers the Bebington that the Conservatives won in 1964 and 1970 would have been better described as ‘Bebington & Birkenhead South’.
Yes thats exactly what it was – again a seat the Conservatives probably couldn’t come close to winning now
The Wirral of pre 1974 would be dangerously marginal now.
If it included Ellesmere Port and part of Birkenhead, I suspect Labour would have won it by several thousand this year.
oh sorry it didn’t include any of Birkenhead. Nevertheless I suspect I am still right that Labour would have won.
Presumably the pre 1974 Wirral included Heswall and Ellesmere Port.
Would the Labour lead in Ellesmere Port have been large enough to overturn the Conservative lead in Heswall plus the Conservative lead in what is effectively the present Wirral West constituency?
It included Neston as well in other words the whole of this seat (apart from the small area from the former Chester district). Tory lead in Wirral West was 2,436 but included Upton formerly of Birkenhead and Labour would have been ahead by quite a bit there so I’d say Wirral West (-Upton) + Heswall would have outvoted EP&N but not by much
So it would have been slightly more Labour than the national average.
How things have changed even compared with outer commuter areas around Leeds or Birmingham.
I wonder if the best thing for the Conservatives on the Wirral would be a constituency based on Wirral W but without Upton but with Heswall and the outer parts of Wallasey.
Well yes it clearly would be – that would corral all the Tories’ best areas into one seat.
It would be if they’ve given up all hope of winning Wirral South.
I suspect they would have won my ‘Wirral West, Moreton and Heswall’ even in 1997 and 2001.
Alfred Bates was only 29 when elected as Labour MP for Bebington and Ellesmere Port in February 1974. He didn’t return to the Commons after losing his seat in 1979.
“I wonder if the best thing for the Conservatives on the Wirral would be a constituency based on Wirral W but without Upton but with Heswall and the outer parts of Wallasey.”
And the boundary commission have obliged albeit taking the best Conservative wards from this constituency instead of from Wallasey.
Richard is right. According to Anthony, Esther Mcvey would have a notional majority of 9300 in this seat. Indeed, I suspect that the Conservatives would even have won it in 1997, though it would have been close. Their ‘Deeside’ vote is clearly quite resilient.
…which is unsurprising given the demographic profile of west Wirral.
I just drove through the Wirral at 6pm and petrol queues were forming already. I recall in 2000, that Merseyside was the first area to ‘run dry.’ When are the strike days? I found the 7 ballot results, but no dates.
The Wirral has now run dry according to the BBC.
I have a suspicion that Bebington was in The Wirral seat before 1950, was it?
I think so Harry, I’m sure it wasn’t in a Birkenhead seat or Wallasey.
A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Lancs Observer’s post of March 28!