Edinburgh West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10767 (23.18%)
Labour: 12881 (27.73%)
Liberal Democrat: 16684 (35.92%)
SNP: 6115 (13.17%)
Majority: 3803 (8.19%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 22417 (49.5%)
Conservative: 8817 (19.5%)
Labour: 8433 (18.6%)
SNP: 4124 (9.1%)
Other: 1474 (3.3%)
Majority: 13600 (30%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8894 (22.5%)
Labour: 9130 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16719 (42.4%)
SNP: 4047 (10.3%)
Other: 688 (1.7%)
Majority: 7589 (19.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13325 (28%)
Labour: 8948 (18.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20578 (43.2%)
SNP: 4210 (8.8%)
Referendum: 277 (0.6%)
Other: 293 (0.6%)
Majority: 7253 (15.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Stewart Geddes (Conservative) born Glasgow, but brought up in Brazil. Chartered management accountant. Former Basildon Councillor.
Cameron Day (Labour) Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Sheena Cleland (SNP) born Edinburgh. Educated at Edinburgh University. Runs a communications business. Contested Lothians Region in 2003 Scottish elections, Edinburgh West 2005, Edinburgh West and Lothians Region in 2007 Scottish Elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89295
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 97.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 60.9%
Muslim: 1%
Graduates 16-74: 28.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Labour appear to be extremely serious about attempting to win Ed Western next year as they gave the candidate Lesley Hinds a platform at the Scottish conference
Revised Prediction:
LD 11000 (-10)
Labour 9500 (+12)
SNP 8000 (nc)
Con 8000 (+1)
I think the LD party should hold this one, albeit with a reduced majority, since this is an affluent seat. In fact I suspect it will contain many Tories tactically voting LD to keep Labour out..
I didn’t actually consider tactical voting by tories. I think Labour would have to eat into the SNP vote as well as the LD vote to take the Ed Western.
Edinburgh Central is an almost certain notional Labour gain. The only two possible alternatives would be for the Conservative vote to totally collapse to 2000 and save the Lib Dems or the Lib Dem vote to totally collapse and go to the SNP – resulting in an SNP Gain – both are less likely than a Labour victory.
Edinburgh Northern & Leith is the most likely Edinburgh seat to return a Labour MSP, and similar scenarios apply to that seat as Edinburgh Central.
It is also likely that Edinburgh Eastern will be a notional Labour Hold though their is a small chance that KM incumbancy could result in an notional SNP gain.
Edinburgh Pentlands is now better for Labour and current Scottish polls would suggest a Labour victory there. On the basis of notional results, the Conservatives have a better change of notionally holding Eastwood than Pentlands – but many would argue that Pentlands is a better prospect (rating the order of stability in the notional Tory seats as Dumfriesshire, Eastwood, Edinburgh Pentlands, Ayr, E, R & B and Galloway & WD).
Given the Westminster poll is likely that the Lib Dems will hold Edinburgh Western with a greatly reduced majority, but should be able to hold Edinburgh Southern, and it is possible that they could retain Southern by a slightly larger margin that Edinburgh Western.
Agree with most of this.
I now think Edinburgh Southern and Pentlands are too close to call for Labour.
Strongly disagree with the idea that Eastern could be an SNP gain, the boundaries are more favourable to Labour than before and Labour has chosen former council leader Rev Ewan Aitken to fight the seat -
He is a good opponent for the respected KM.
2007 was also a dreadful year for Labour.
By simply doing less dreafully, Labour would gain many seats.
Scottish polls make marginal SNP and Labour seats like Ochil, Edinburgh East, Stirling, Kilmarnock, Glenrothes, Cunningham North, Glasgow Southside, Glasgow Kelvin, Dundee West, Falkirk West and Almond Valley obvious Labour victories but do not yet point to Labour success in Dundee East, Aberdeen Donside, Aberdeen South & Kincardine, Tweeddale & Midlothian South, The Western Isles, Inverness ect.
I think the Tories will poll more than 13% and Labour will poll less than 40%.
Dumfriesshire will be a notional Labour gain, but Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Pentlands, Eastwood and will be very close. I think the Conservatives will just hold Ayr but increase their majority in Ettric, Roxburgh & Berwickshire.
I also think that the Tories will hold Galloway & West Dumfries but Labour will push the SNP out of second place. I also think that the SNP will notionally hold Midlothian South & Tweeddale but Labour will push the Lib Dems out of notional second place.
I also believe that the SNP will gain Caithness, Sutherland & Ross and Skye & Lochaber.
Kenny MacAskill respected?
Isn’t he the minister for “justice” that ensured that justice wasn’t done? I think he’ll be quite an asset for Labour.
Don’t see pentlands falling to be honest.
Notionally, Pentlands is now has a smaller Conservative majority than Eastwood.
As A.Brown has commented, much will depend on the turnout in the Labour vote in Eastwood.
The Conservatives will poll 11000 – 14000 but the Labour vote could be between 10000 – 16000 (the lower level being close to the 2007 notional result and the upper level being the level of support Jim Murphy had outside the Barrhead conurbation).
Had Jim Murphy not won by 10500 last May we would all believe that KM would be doomed. Murphys margin of victory make this seat very competitive -
with a 12% 2007 notional Conservative majority and a Labour majority of around 10% last May (thats my estimate of the general election result with Barrhead removed).
http://news.scotsman.com/news/Scots-rebel-with-a-cause.6656056.jp
hard to know what’ll happen in Ed western next year, I’m currently predicting a 1500 LD majority over Labour
but I wonder if the MP here voting against the gvt. will have any impact.
The marginal Western areas like South Queensferry, Gyle and Kirkliston are key.
Cramond/ Davidson Mains and perhaps Corstorphine are the only areas of Lib Dem/ Con competition left here.
I am not being presumptious or making fancy predictions here but if there were to be a large swing away from the lib dems to labour I suppose it would happen in the Drum Brae/Gyle, Kirkliston and South Queensferry areas I would think.
Corstorphine is harder to call, in some ways it is like Morningside.
In Scottish elections the SNP are stronger in the Western part of this seat (that was in Linlithgow and Livingston before 1997).
Labour need to squeeze the SNP in the West as well as achieve a swing from the Lib Dems in the East.
Labour came 4th here in 2007 and it is the strength of the SNP in the West in Holyrood elections that dilutes the Labour support.
I think that all 4 parties will come within 10% here.
‘In Scottish elections the SNP are stronger in the Western part of this seat’
That would make sense I suppose but the SNP still did quite well and were not expected to elect a councillor in the Almond ward in 2007 (instead of a 2nd lib dem)
Given how well Labour did here in the general election, I wonder if this might be a Labour gain in the scottish parliament elections (with the Lib Dems, Tories AND SNP all now suffering unpopularity)?
I suppose it depends on how different the boundaries are.
Well the Westminster boundaries are slightly better for
Labour because they include the working class area of Stenhouse.
I am also aware that the labour vote was only 1.2% higher than the 2001 notional result.
But it’s hard to call because people were voting on issues such as school closures in part of the area in the westminster election so we don’t know what they’ll be voting on in the holyrood election.
Labour do better here in Westminster elections than Holyrood. The situation is reversed for the SNP.
The came 2nd in 2001 and 2010 at Westminster while never gaining 2nd place in a Holyrood election, perhaps down to better Westminster boundaries (as A Brown has commented).
Interpreting the 2010 GE result and recent opinion polls on the 2007 Holyrood result could actually see all 4 parties polling within 10% (therefore a 4 way marginal).
Labour were some 12000 + votes adrift in 2007, therefore a Labour gain is far fetched.
LD 9700
LAB 8900
SNP 8300
CON 7200
Majority 800
(1400 over SNP and 2500 over the Tories)
I apologise for previously scoffing at Dalek’s prediction of an SNP win here as the odds showed the Lib dems and SNP level before the election.
Council leader Jenny Dawe is in danger of being decapitated next year and I suppose Drum/Brae Gyle ward will return 1 LD, 1 Lab and 1 SNP.
By-election in Edinburgh City Centre ward today. It’s a 6-way marginal, so no predictions esp in August & during the Fringe.
An interesting contest and I’ll attempt a prediction.
SNP 28.5
Lab 22.9
Grn 17.0
Con 16.0
LD 8.6
Ind 7.3
Normally in Scottish council by elections the dominant party in the ward win.
If Labour won 2 seats with 50% and the SNP 1 seat with 30% and the SNP councillor retires then with no swing Labour would have 3 seats after the by election.
Edinburgh City is hard to predict because it is so marginal. I think the Tories topped the poll in the ward with little more than 20%.
My prediction is an SNP hold with Labour, the Greens and the Tories not too far behind.
I would be prepared to guess that the gap between the four above parties could be less than 10%.
IMHO Jenny Dawe rivals Catriona Ruane for most incompetent woman politician of 2011. At least Sinn Fein did the decent thing with Ruane.
Oh and Jenny Dawe is moving to Meadows/Morningside ward next year which is intriguing because Drum/Brae Gyle ward was their strongest ward in 2007 (even though it’s just a 3 member ward rather than a 4 member one).
I know she’s unpopular personally perhaps because of the school closures as well but the only way the LDs could end up with no representation here is if the LDs fall behind the tories on transfers assuming Lab and SNP get one seat each.
The LDs are clearly now going to be cut to 6 or less seats in Edinburgh.
“Normally in Scottish council by elections the dominant party in the ward win”
Scottish council by-elections are absurd and I for one don’t pay them the slightest bit of attention. You really can’t have a single seat by-election based on STV, its ridiculous. They should either abolish by-elections and let the party appoint one of the failed candidates for the ward (as they do in the PR sections of the devolved bodies and in Europe) or they should hold the by-elections on FPTP or at least AV if it would make the politicans feel better.
Its clear to me that introducing PR for Scottish council elections was a mistake and just another nail in the coffin of Scottish local government. Its a lesson we in England need to learn.
“or they should hold the by-elections on FPTP or at least AV”
They are AV in all but name
The Conservatives have topped the poll in first preferences apparently. Somehow I doubt they’ll maintain their lead on transfers
Conservatives still ahead following elimination of LD, Independent and Green candidates but likely to lose out to SNP following Labour transfers
SNP win on transfers by 104 votes, a decent fight from the tories.
Lib Dems 6th behind the anti-tram Ind!
This just goes to show how undemocratic AV is. I think we should abolish by-elections for STV seats (similar to Northern Ireland Assembly) and just to coopt a candidate from whichever party the outgoing member was from. However if we must have by-elections then they should be by FPTP in which the Conservative rather than the SNP candidate would have won.
Just realised I didn’t have a clue which Westminster constituency the City Centre ward is in. Looking at Election Maps the answer is Edinburgh North & Leith.
2015
Edinburgh North West
Sheena Cleland – SNP: 15115
Davena Rankin – Labour: 14881
Jason Rust – Conservative: 8767
Michael Crockart – Liberal Democrat: 7684
SNP Gain from Lib Dem
I think the SNP train will have slowed down by then. I think it’s more likely to be a Lab gain.
Edinburgh West is now has a larger notional Lib Dem majority over Labour.
Must be down to the Edinburgh North parts of Edinburgh North & Leith that are more Lib Dem than Edinburgh West as a whole.
Yes addition the Stockbridge,and Craigleith/Blackhall helps them a bit. They should be happy with these boundaries although it’s still probably vulnerable to Labour.