Edinburgh West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10767 (23.18%)
Labour: 12881 (27.73%)
Liberal Democrat: 16684 (35.92%)
SNP: 6115 (13.17%)
Majority: 3803 (8.19%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 22417 (49.5%)
Conservative: 8817 (19.5%)
Labour: 8433 (18.6%)
SNP: 4124 (9.1%)
Other: 1474 (3.3%)
Majority: 13600 (30%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8894 (22.5%)
Labour: 9130 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16719 (42.4%)
SNP: 4047 (10.3%)
Other: 688 (1.7%)
Majority: 7589 (19.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13325 (28%)
Labour: 8948 (18.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20578 (43.2%)
SNP: 4210 (8.8%)
Referendum: 277 (0.6%)
Other: 293 (0.6%)
Majority: 7253 (15.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Stewart Geddes (Conservative) born Glasgow, but brought up in Brazil. Chartered management accountant. Former Basildon Councillor.
Cameron Day (Labour) Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Sheena Cleland (SNP) born Edinburgh. Educated at Edinburgh University. Runs a communications business. Contested Lothians Region in 2003 Scottish elections, Edinburgh West 2005, Edinburgh West and Lothians Region in 2007 Scottish Elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89295
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 97.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 60.9%
Muslim: 1%
Graduates 16-74: 28.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
I just can’t see any real crumbs of comfort for the Lib Dems in Edinburgh because they had a a calamitous collapse at a local level this year everywhere/across the board.
It was not like say Aberdeen or East Dunbartonshire where there were at least a couple of wards where their vote held up fairly well this year (i.e. concentrated power bases from which to recover from at a local level).
‘I don’t think the SNP will do very well in the General Election – they may only rise about 1% against 2010.’
As much as I’d love to see the SNP get destroyed I suspect they’ll still manage about 28% (+8) even after a referendum rout (e.g. 30%+).
Looks like the Lib Dems will be toast here come 2015. Labour could take this for the first time ever in the constituency’s existence.
Actually not quite. Labour did win a by-election here before WWII, but has never won in a general election.
I’m not sure – the LD vote already collapsed in 2010. Maybe their remaining vote is a lot more solid and won’t fall much further.
Disagree Andy they only polled about 16% at the local elections this year and turnout was around 44%.
Local elections are local elections.
It’s unusual to have a situation where a party’s share falls by nearly 15% at one election and then falls again by a big amount at the following one. It does occasionally happen – for example the Tory vote in Liverpool Mossley Hill in 1987 and 1992.
I notice the Tories got 23% last time. Some of those might be tempted to vote LD to keep Labour and the SNP out.
The remaining tory vote is solid here Andy, had an ex tory Ind candidate not stood in Drumbrae/Gyle the Lib dems would have been wiped out in what was their strongest ward in 2007.
This is likely to be the only constituency that Labour did not win in 1997 that they win in 2015.
No I think there will be others- Perhaps Bermondsey and Old Southwark and Argyll and Bute as well maybe.
zero chance of that in Argyll and Bute but Caithness and Sutherland is a theoretical outiside chance with SNp favourites.
But Labour only need a 4.4% swing to take Argyll and Bute.
Maybe Labour will lose some support to the SNP at the same time as picking up support from the LDs?
I don’t think the SNP are going to do particularly well in the General Election atall.
Up a bit because of the scale of the likely LD collapse (across most of Scotland – with some exceptions)
but only fairly marginally.
‘Maybe Labour will lose some support to the SNP at the same time as picking up support from the LDs?’
Yes I agree with that, there could be Lab – SNP leakage in Falkirk, Ayrshire and the new towns with Labour offsetting it with a strong performance in Edinburgh etc.
The Labour vote should generally hold up (as I see no real reason why Miliband should be more ‘unpopular’ than Blair) but they are defending a probable high water mark against the SNP in places such as Cumbernauld and Glenrothes.
@Joe James B
I think the most likely scenario in Scotland is:
Lab 43
SNP 28
Con 15
LD 10
(it’s not completely out of the question that the tories could gain ground at the expense of the SNP (after a failed referendum) in the NE etc if they were to go for a radical new approach which peter Duncan was proposing in yesterday’s Sunday Times but on balance it’s (still obviously) not very likely.)
Don’t get me wrong there are three seats in Scotland that are ‘theoretically winnable’ at the next election for the tories but I wouldn’t bet on them winning more than 1.
Peter Duncan’s remarks were eminently sensible, and are in line with some of the suggestions I have our forward on this site previously. The Scottish Tories have no future unless they make there peace with the idea of greater political autonomy for Scotland.
Having said that, even if the story outlook remains as it is I would still expect David Mundell to hold at the next election, and there to be a decent chance of Tory a gain in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine given the weakness of the Scottish Lib Dems.
I don’t disagree that a more resilient Conservative party similar to Wales would be a good thing for Scottish politics.
The Tories would do well to take the step everyone knows, foes and fans, recommends they should make
Become an arm’s length group, with a new name and new identity, with a Scottish voice, rather than being the very awkward adjunct they are today.
“Scottish Labour” and “Scottish Liberal Democrats” might not be very different names but they are considerably separate from their national parties. The Tories will have to do something very similar if they want to succeed.
I think it would provide a limited success (maybe the three “winnable” seats) but the main problem is that if a region isnt self funding and has no obligation to be it the voters will be far more concerned with how money is spent than raised.
Coming from a tory desert myself I see how this is the case. The current situation bolsters tory support in the south and reduces it in scotland and wales (and the poorer english regions to a certaine extent, but particularly my native north-east)
The best solution would perhaps be a compromise scenario
Bavarianisation for Holyrood and stick with English and Welsh tories for Holyrood.
Difficult path for the tories to tread though!
*and stick with the English and Welsh tories for Westminster.*
I disagree doktorb. I think the question of a name change and emulating the model of the Bavarian CSU is a massive distraction. Any successor party would be treated by voters and opponents as a Tory Party mark two that had undergone some cynical rebranding exercise in an attempt to conceal its true identity from the electorate. It could actually have a net negative effect.
I actually think talk of such a move cost Tavish Scott the Scottish leadership election. Many members attracted by his reformist lookout agenda were, I would suggest, put off by him proposing a name change. If I had had a vote that factor alone would have made me grudgingly plump for Ruth Davidson over Scott out of the top two.
What matters is policy. Too many Tories have yet to realise that the next best thing to defending the pre Blair government constitutional settlement is not defending the post Blair settlement. The Scottish Tories need to realise that greater fiscal autonomy for Scotland is the best way of preserving the union, and of facilitating a revival in centre right politics there.
Murdo Fraser, of course, not Tavish Scott finished runner up in the last Scottish Tory leadership election. Not even in the same party ffs.
The Tories don’t do well in Scotland because quite simply the Scottish people don’t like them. For a party that once held diverse seats such as Eastwood, Edinburgh West, Kincardine and Deeside and Stirling to now only hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale really does tell the story.
Yes Kieran your initial comment had me very puzzled – “surely he’s a Lib Dem from the Northern Isles?” I was thinking. Your correction underneath was most welcome & made it clear I hadn’t missed some surprising Scottish political news.
The Results – while that is true we have to think why it is true or the problem will not be solved. Likewise with Labour in the south, particularly the south west
The same could be said for the Liberal Democrats in the East Midlands.
“The Tories don’t do well in Scotland because quite simply the Scottish people don’t like them”.
Well, thank you for that perceptive, in depth analysis of the Scottish political landscape. There’s a thesis waiting to be written about that I am sure.
What’s interesting is that the tories two strongest wards in Scotland, Newton Mearns S and Colinton/Fairmilehead are both in urban areas.
Although as someone who lives in Edinburgh, I think the tories are slightly less unpopular at a local level than a Westminster level in Edinburgh.
Indeed, the Tories have often racked up quite large majorities in not only Colinton but also Balerno & Currie. I’d be interested in what you think AC about how these areas would have voted in the 2010 general election for or against Alistair Darling.
”Well, thank you for that perceptive, in depth analysis of the Scottish political landscape. There’s a thesis waiting to be written about that I am sure.”
Well it is definitely true. The Tories were second place in not very many of the Scottish Westminster seats in 2010, and it’s not difficult to understand why this was the case.
“…it’s not difficult to understand why this was the case”.
Then why not have a stab at explaining why? Just saying “the Scottish people don’t like them” explains nothing.
My impression is that the Tories have never had much support amongst Scottish voters born since about 1960 and this isn’t changing over time as they might have hoped it would do.
The tories would have carried Colinton and Craiglockhart. Not so sure about Balerno and Currie.
Right, a few things-
1. They lost seats to the SNP in 1997 they may never take back.
2. The demographics in Scotland have changed, which have therefore favoured all the other parties, particularly Labour and the Lib Dems.
3. The support they used to have in the cities has faded away- They have little support in Glasgow, and only have councillors left in Edinburgh.
4. In seats such as West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Argyll and Bute, North East Fife and Edinburgh West there has been strong Liberal Democrat support and the MPs in seats like these have held off the Tories in what used to be their own backyards. So it will be difficult for them to ever regain seats like these from the Liberal Democrats.
5. If it wasn’t for the SNP, the Tories would probably have about 5 seats now. But the SNP hold seats that the Tories may never get back even though they are still in second place- Perth and East Perthshire, Banff and Buchan, Moray and Angus are all seats the Tories could realistically keep working on winning back, but aren’t going to be easy for them.
6. Seats the Tories lost long ago in Scotland such as Dumfries and Galloway, East Renfrewshire, Ayr and Stirling have drifted away from them evermore and could now be considered Labour strongholds because of effective incumbents.
Ayr?
That is still a tory town, the only reason the seat is safely labour is the presence of other vastly more labour towns in the seat.
‘My impression is that the Tories have never had much support amongst Scottish voters born since about 1960 and this isn’t changing over time as they might have hoped it would do.’
But they don’t do themselves any favours
It’s little wonder they did so poorly here, picking an ex Basildon councillor who was brought up in Brazil.
Did they honestly think a candidate like that was ideal for a middle class urban seat in the Scottish capital with a sizeable student population
Likewise comments such as those made by their leader in Scotland Ruth Davidson – who basically accused Scottish people of being scroungers – seem more like a concerted attempt to stick two fingers up to the Scots rather than a genuine attempt to engage in political debate
the more you look beyond the surface you can’t help that form the impression that the tories don’t do well because their hearts aren’t really in it and whilst i don’t doubt david cameron’s commitment to the union, I’d imagine that many of colleagues would like to see the back of Scotland, and I’d expect a not insignificant amount of them to campaign for an independent scotland
Joe – you’re partly right, but really Ayr is split up into 2 halves, one half pretty solidly Labour, the other half solidly Tory.
If the Lib Dems backfire in Edinburgh in 2015 as is predicted, will they keep second place in the seats they had previously targeted, such as North and Leith and South etc?
I honestly believe they will come third in Edinburgh S and 4th in the other 4 seats including this one.
@Tim Jones
Doesn’t sound any weirder than many Tory candidates in England.
Possible result in 2015-
Lab- 16, 429 (36.1%, +8.4%)
Con- 9, 773 (21.4%, -1.8%)
SNP- 9, 655 (21.2%, +8.0%)
Lib Dem- 9, 648 (21.2%, -14.7%)
Turnout- 45, 505.
Majority- 6, 656 (14.6%)
Lab gain from Lib Dem.
Swing- +11.55% from Lib Dem to Lab.
I can see my party winning this seat, but surely not by as much as that. I also doubt that the Tories would be up with or ahead of the LDs.
2015 predicted vote:
2010 Votes 2010 Share Prediction
LIB 16,684 35.92% 23.16%
LAB 12,881 27.73% 27.74%
CON 10,767 23.18% 20.75%
NAT 6,115 13.17% 17.56%
OTH 0 0.00% 10.79%
LAB majority 3,803 Pred Maj 4.58%
The SNP vote increase is slight because this is after the 2014 referendum, which they will lose. Plus, Holyrood strength invariably does NOT translate to Westminster voting intentions (as has been repeatedly demonstrated by Scots voters)